Hache Man
"Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak"
Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007
The 2007 Tuffy Awards
The first week of the season produces some wonderful anomalies on the stat sheet: Vladimir Guerrero on pace for 234 RBI; Felix Hernandez on pace for 420 strikeouts; Hanley Ramirez on pace to score 208 runs; Salomon Torres on pace to rack up 78 saves.
Of course, it's laughable to think that the fast starters will continue to dominate opponents the same way over the rest of the regular season. But don't tell that to fantasy owners, who are often more than willing to cut an established veteran just so they can grab a .600-hitting slap hitter off their league's waiver wire.
To guard against such irrational exuberance, we're here to hand out our annual Tuffy Awards.
In the spirit of Karl "Tuffy" Rhodes, who hit three home runs off Dwight Gooden on opening day 1994 and then faded into fantasy oblivion, we present the first-week performances that are least likely to continue the rest of the season.
Before we get to this year's winner, here are a few first-week surprises to whet your appetite.
Unlikely to continue
Mark Ellis among the league leaders in RBI. The A's second baseman had just three hits (and an OPS of .596) but eight RBI after five games before a two-hit game Sunday.
Mike Napoli as a stolen base threat. In 99 games as a rookie last season, the Angels catcher stole two bases in five attempts. Just because he swiped a base in the opener, don't confuse him with Jason Kendall in his prime.
Albert Pujols hitting below the Mendoza line. A 1-for-17 start to the season saw Phat Albert's average drop to a bare-bones .059 before he went 2-for-5 with a home run Sunday. Pujols was still hitting .136 after the game, but good luck if you think that'll persuade another owner to trade him to you. Same goes for David Ortiz (.217), Michael Young (.154), Andruw Jones (.130) and Lance Berkman (.190).
Could continue
Young arms racking up the strikeouts. In their first starts of the season, Felix Hernandez (12 Ks), Ian Snell (11), Jason Hirsh (8) and Zack Greinke (7) demonstrated excellent command in addition to an ability to finish off hitters with two strikes.
Adam Dunn hitting for a higher average. Dunn's elevation in the Reds order paid immediate dividends on opening day when he slugged two homers. He hit .317 in the No. 2 spot last season, and he's getting some good pitches to hit so far this season.
The envelope, please
And now it's time for our feature presentation, the Tuffy.
Second runner-up: Robinson Tejeda, Rangers. Pitching seven innings of shutout ball against the potent Red Sox offense is quite impressive. Allowing only two hits over those seven innings is even more so. But what are the chances Tejeda can manage similar stats the next time he only strikes out one batter and records 16 of the other 20 outs on fly balls?
The winds of change are about to blow in Arlington, and those fly balls will start blossoming into home runs.
First runner-up: Dmitri Young, Nationals. If he didn't have the career r?sum? to back up his early success, Young would have been the perfect choice as this year's Tuffy. Just two seasons ago, Young matched Rhodes' feat to become only the third player in history to hit three homers on opening day. (Trivia answer: Toronto's George Bell was the first in 1988.)
After winning not only a roster spot but a starting job as well, Young has been one of the Nationals' most productive hitters with an RBI in the team's first four games. Injuries and off-field issues kept him sidelined for most of last season and there's no guarantee that injuries won't be a problem again this year.
Young is also a liability at first base, something the Nats can't afford with their shaky pitching staff. Plus, the expected return of Nick Johnson a couple months down the road will leave Young without a position. He may be a popular first-week pickup off the free agent wire, but unless you're able to trade him soon, Young will grow old on your bench.
And the Tuffy goes to ?
It's easy to criticize the Royals' decision to sign Gil Meche to a big-money contract in the offseason, but Meche quieted the critics by limiting those powerful Red Sox hitters to just one run in 7 1/3 innings on opening day to earn his first win.
Meche surrendered six earned runs in seven innings in his second start (against the Tigers), but he still probably would have been a great sleeper candidate this season had he signed just about anywhere but Kansas City. Even though this Royals team has some talent in its everyday lineup, the bullpen is still suspect, which will keep Meche from winning any more than a dozen games this season.
Meche wasn't even the biggest surprise for the Royals. Shortstop Tony Pena Jr. whacked a pair of triples in three at-bats on opening day. He also scored two runs and drove in another to spark the K.C. offense. Not bad for a player the Royals acquired just days before the start of the season to be an emergency starter at shortstop in place of the struggling Angel Berroa.
But those first-week stats with an impressive .571 slugging percentage mask the fact that there's not much upside to Pena, even if he does get full-time at-bats with the Royals. In 44 at-bats last season with Atlanta, Pena hit .227. He's a .252 career hitter in the minor leagues.
With so many other capable shortstops around, one hot week isn't going to elevate Pena into very many fantasy lineups. So when it comes to adding this year's Tuffy Award winner to your roster, the advice is simple: No Pena ? it's a no-brainer.
The 2007 Tuffy Awards
The first week of the season produces some wonderful anomalies on the stat sheet: Vladimir Guerrero on pace for 234 RBI; Felix Hernandez on pace for 420 strikeouts; Hanley Ramirez on pace to score 208 runs; Salomon Torres on pace to rack up 78 saves.
Of course, it's laughable to think that the fast starters will continue to dominate opponents the same way over the rest of the regular season. But don't tell that to fantasy owners, who are often more than willing to cut an established veteran just so they can grab a .600-hitting slap hitter off their league's waiver wire.
To guard against such irrational exuberance, we're here to hand out our annual Tuffy Awards.
In the spirit of Karl "Tuffy" Rhodes, who hit three home runs off Dwight Gooden on opening day 1994 and then faded into fantasy oblivion, we present the first-week performances that are least likely to continue the rest of the season.
Before we get to this year's winner, here are a few first-week surprises to whet your appetite.
Unlikely to continue
Mark Ellis among the league leaders in RBI. The A's second baseman had just three hits (and an OPS of .596) but eight RBI after five games before a two-hit game Sunday.
Mike Napoli as a stolen base threat. In 99 games as a rookie last season, the Angels catcher stole two bases in five attempts. Just because he swiped a base in the opener, don't confuse him with Jason Kendall in his prime.
Albert Pujols hitting below the Mendoza line. A 1-for-17 start to the season saw Phat Albert's average drop to a bare-bones .059 before he went 2-for-5 with a home run Sunday. Pujols was still hitting .136 after the game, but good luck if you think that'll persuade another owner to trade him to you. Same goes for David Ortiz (.217), Michael Young (.154), Andruw Jones (.130) and Lance Berkman (.190).
Could continue
Young arms racking up the strikeouts. In their first starts of the season, Felix Hernandez (12 Ks), Ian Snell (11), Jason Hirsh (8) and Zack Greinke (7) demonstrated excellent command in addition to an ability to finish off hitters with two strikes.
Adam Dunn hitting for a higher average. Dunn's elevation in the Reds order paid immediate dividends on opening day when he slugged two homers. He hit .317 in the No. 2 spot last season, and he's getting some good pitches to hit so far this season.
The envelope, please
And now it's time for our feature presentation, the Tuffy.
Second runner-up: Robinson Tejeda, Rangers. Pitching seven innings of shutout ball against the potent Red Sox offense is quite impressive. Allowing only two hits over those seven innings is even more so. But what are the chances Tejeda can manage similar stats the next time he only strikes out one batter and records 16 of the other 20 outs on fly balls?
The winds of change are about to blow in Arlington, and those fly balls will start blossoming into home runs.
First runner-up: Dmitri Young, Nationals. If he didn't have the career r?sum? to back up his early success, Young would have been the perfect choice as this year's Tuffy. Just two seasons ago, Young matched Rhodes' feat to become only the third player in history to hit three homers on opening day. (Trivia answer: Toronto's George Bell was the first in 1988.)
After winning not only a roster spot but a starting job as well, Young has been one of the Nationals' most productive hitters with an RBI in the team's first four games. Injuries and off-field issues kept him sidelined for most of last season and there's no guarantee that injuries won't be a problem again this year.
Young is also a liability at first base, something the Nats can't afford with their shaky pitching staff. Plus, the expected return of Nick Johnson a couple months down the road will leave Young without a position. He may be a popular first-week pickup off the free agent wire, but unless you're able to trade him soon, Young will grow old on your bench.
And the Tuffy goes to ?
It's easy to criticize the Royals' decision to sign Gil Meche to a big-money contract in the offseason, but Meche quieted the critics by limiting those powerful Red Sox hitters to just one run in 7 1/3 innings on opening day to earn his first win.
Meche surrendered six earned runs in seven innings in his second start (against the Tigers), but he still probably would have been a great sleeper candidate this season had he signed just about anywhere but Kansas City. Even though this Royals team has some talent in its everyday lineup, the bullpen is still suspect, which will keep Meche from winning any more than a dozen games this season.
Meche wasn't even the biggest surprise for the Royals. Shortstop Tony Pena Jr. whacked a pair of triples in three at-bats on opening day. He also scored two runs and drove in another to spark the K.C. offense. Not bad for a player the Royals acquired just days before the start of the season to be an emergency starter at shortstop in place of the struggling Angel Berroa.
But those first-week stats with an impressive .571 slugging percentage mask the fact that there's not much upside to Pena, even if he does get full-time at-bats with the Royals. In 44 at-bats last season with Atlanta, Pena hit .227. He's a .252 career hitter in the minor leagues.
With so many other capable shortstops around, one hot week isn't going to elevate Pena into very many fantasy lineups. So when it comes to adding this year's Tuffy Award winner to your roster, the advice is simple: No Pena ? it's a no-brainer.