Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007
2003 Prospects Review
Below is a review of the preseason Top 150 Prospects column from 2003. I've left the players listed with their ages (as of Opening Day 2003), ETAs and 2002 stats from that column and added in where each player was listed on Baseball America's top 100 and Baseball Prospectus' top 40. This is back from an era when I used to post my prospects list before most of the others came out (the Top 150 was published on Jan. 6), but there are still plenty of similarities. I've also added brief writeups for the top 100.
I'll begin the 2008 team top 10s next week, with the new Top 150 scheduled for early March.
2003 Top 150 Prospects
1.
Mark Teixeira - 3B Rangers - Age 22 - ETA: May 2003
Previous rankings: 2002 #10, mid-2002 #3
texasrangers.com
BA: #1, BP: #1
.320/.411/.593, 9 HR, 41 RBI, 24/21 K/BB, 2 SB in 150 AB for Single-A Charlotte
.316/.415/.591, 10 HR, 28 RBI, 36/25 K/BB, 3 SB in 171 AB for Double-A Tulsa
.333/.437/.616, 7 HR, 23 RBI, 24/17 K/BB, 1 SB in 99 AB for Peoria (AFL)
2003 quote: It's only a bit of an exaggeration to say that he's Mike Schmidt to Blalock's George Brett.
Interestingly, BA and Prospectus also had him ranked 10th in 2002. Teixeira was essentially the consensus No. 1 prospect after his first pro season, though one of the four Baseball America writers to list his picks (Josh Boyd) went with
Rocco Baldelli over him.
2.
Jose Reyes - SS Mets - Age 19 - ETA: July 2003
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #2
newyorkmets.com
BA: #3, BP: #3
.288/.353/.462, 6 HR, 38 RBI, 35/30 K/BB, 31 SB in 288 AB for Single-A St. Lucie
.287/.331/.425, 2 HR, 24 RBI, 42/16 K/BB, 27 SB in 275 AB for Double-A Binghamton
2003 quote: Reyes could be the best shortstop in the National League by 2006.
My biggest oversight in 2002, as Baseball America was smart enough to rank him 34th after he hit .307/.337/.472 in low-A ball.
3.
Joe Mauer - C Twins - Age 19 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: 2002 #17, mid-2002 #7
minnesotatwins.com
BA: #4, BP: #9
.302/.393/.392, 4 HR, 62 RBI, 42/61 K/BB, 0 SB in 411 AB for Single-A Quad City
2003 quote: By 2007, it's very possible he'll be the premier catcher in baseball.
Mauer ended up slugging just .426 -- .094 isolated -- in 1,055 at-bats as a minor leaguer. He hasn't quite met expectations in the power department yet in the majors, but he is at .459 and .146 isolated.
4.
Brandon Phillips - 2B/SS Indians - Age 21 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: 2002 #26, mid-2002 #4
BA: #7, BP: #6
.327/.380/.506, 9 HR, 35 RBI, 33/16 K/BB, 6 SB in 245 AB for Double-A Harrisburg
.257/.297/.457, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 6/2 K/BB, 0 SB in 35 AB for Triple-A Ottawa
.283/.321/.453, 8 HR, 27 RBI, 39/14 K/BB, 8 SB in 223 AB for Triple-A Buffalo
.258/.343/.419, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 6/3 K/BB, 0 SB in 31 AB for Cleveland
2003 quote: He'll hit .290-.300 with 20 homers per year once he reaches his prime.
It's been a bumpy road, but Phillips may yet justify this ranking. I still think it's a shame that he's spent his career as a second baseman when he's always had the range for short.
5.
Hee Seop Choi - 1B Cubs - Age 24 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: 2001 #12, mid-2001 #15, 2002 #20, mid-2002 #9
BA: #22, BP: #7
.287/.406/.513, 26 HR, 97 RBI, 119/95 K/BB, 3 SB in 478 AB for Triple-A Iowa
.180/.281/.320, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 15/7 K/BB, 0 SB in 50 AB for Chicago (NL)
.345/.456/.714, 8 HR, 17 RBI, 24/17 K/BB, 0 SB in 84 AB for Mesa (AFL)
2003 quote: The South Korean slugger should contend for Rookie of the Year honors?
Sure, the numbers guys always liked him more, but the scouty types thought he'd make it, too. Choi is playing in Korea now and probably won't be seen in the States again outside of the World Baseball Classic.
6.
Joe Borchard - OF White Sox - Age 24 - ETA: June 2003
Previous rankings: mid-2001 #9, 2002 #9, mid-2002 #5
BA: #28, BP: #22
.000/.667/.000, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0/6 K/BB, 0 SB in 3 AB for Single-A Winston-Salem
.272/.349/.498, 20 HR, 59 RBI, 139/49 K/BB, 2 SB in 438 AB for Triple-A Charlotte
.222/.243/.389, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 14/1 K/BB, 0 SB in 36 AB for Chicago (AL)
2003 quote: ? a potential 35-homer outfielder in the majors.
BA had him 12th in 2002, but downgraded him a bit, probably because of the lofty strikeout total. I should have done the same, but switch-hitters with his kind of power don't come around very often. Borchard hit just .196/.287/.313 in 179 at-bats for the Marlins last season and will be a long shot to make the Braves out of spring training.
7.
Michael Cuddyer - OF Twins - Age 24 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: mid-2001 #42, 2002 #38, mid-2002 #6
BA: #17, BP: #15
.309/.379/.594, 20 HR, 53 RBI, 79/36 K/BB, 12 SB in 330 AB for Triple-A Edmonton
.259/.311/.429, 4 HR, 13 RBI, 30/8 K/BB, 2 SB in 112 AB for Minnesota
2003 quote: Fantasy owners should look at him as the new
Tim Salmon.
Cuddyer has turned into a nice player, but BA and BP gave him more appropriate rankings. I thought he'd be a better OBP guy after seasons of 76 and 75 walks at lower levels.
8.
Rocco Baldelli - OF Devil Rays - Age 21 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #36
BA: #2, BP: #28
.333/.382/.535, 14 HR, 51 RBI, 63/18 K/BB, 21 SB in 312 AB for Single-A Bakersfield
.371/.413/.529, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 11/5 K/BB, 3 SB in 70 AB for Double-A Orlando
.292/.292/.469, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 23/0 K/BB, 2 SB in 96 AB for Triple-A Durham
.308/.352/.376, 1 HR, 18 RBI, 23/6 K/BB, 8 SB in 133 AB for Grand Canyon (AFL)
2003 quote: The Rhode Island native is right where
Corey Patterson was two years ago, and Patterson still hasn't learned how to hit major league pitching.
BA looked at the athleticism and ranked him accordingly. BP looked at the 97/23 K/BB ratio. I was firmly in the middle in this case. I don't think it's necessarily fair to say that BP was right. They weren't downgrading him because of his durability issues, and it's anyone's guess what kind of player he'd be right now if he had stayed healthy.
9.
Wilson Betemit - SS Braves - Age 21 - ETA: August 2003
Previous rankings: 2001 #42, mid-2001 #38, 2002 #6, mid-2002 #11
atlantabraves.com
BA: #49, BP: #31
.364/.417/.474, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 2/3 K/BB, 0 SB in 11 AB for Rookie GCL Braves
.245/.312/.370, 8 HR, 34 RBI, 82/34 K/BB, 8 SB in 343 AB for Triple-A Richmond
2003 quote: Betemit's Triple-A numbers weren't pretty, but he was playing in the International League as a 20-year-old and he did raise his average from .198 to .245 by batting .292 after the All-Star break.
BA had him eighth and BP ranked him fifth in 2002. Both knocked him well down after his poor first season in Triple-A, but I looked at his strong second half and the fact that he was one the youngest players at the level and kept him in the top 10. It looks like he belonged more where BP ranked him, but he can play. He has a career .260/.332/.439 line, and he was a little better than that last season.
10.
Francisco Rodriguez - RHP Angels - Age 21 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #65
BA: #10, BP: #21
3-3, 9 Sv, 1.96 ERA, 32 H, 61/15 K/BB in 41 1/3 IP for Double-A Arkansas
2-3, 6 Sv, 2.57 ERA, 30 H, 59/13 K/BB in 42 IP for Triple-A Salt Lake
0-0, 0 Sv, 0.00 ERA, 3 H, 13/2 K/BB in 5 2/3 IP for Anaheim
2003 quote: I hope that we'll someday see Rodriguez starting games for Anaheim, but spending the next two years as a multi-inning reliever would probably be for good for Francisco and his amazing right arm.
Even as good as he looked in the 2002 postseason, no one would rank a reliever any higher than 10th.
11.
Jerome Williams - RHP Giants - Age 21 - ETA: June 2003
Previous rankings: 2001 #44, mid-2001 #31, 2002 #23
BA: #50, BP: #8
6-11, 3.59 ERA, 140 H, 130/50 K/BB in 160 2/3 IP for Triple-A Fresno
0-0, 2.05 ERA, 10 H, 25/7 K/BB in 22 IP for Grand Canyon (AFL)
2003 quote: Williams has always had a great deal of success in the minors despite being one of the youngest players at his level.
A lot of the prospect arguments in 2003 centered on whether Williams or
Jesse Foppert was the better prospect. The statheads gave Williams the edge based on youth. Baseball America, though, actually downgraded him from 19th in 2002 to 50th. His velocity had dropped a bit, and he never did show the same kind of stuff in the majors that he did in the low minors. It seems doubtful that he'll have any further success.
12.
Jesse Foppert - RHP Giants - Age 22 - ETA: April 2004
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #23
BA: #5, BP: #13
3-3, 2.79 ERA, 44 H, 74/21 K/BB in 61 1/3 IP for Double-A Shreveport
3-6, 3.99 ERA, 71 H, 109/35 K/BB in 79 IP for Triple-A Fresno
2003 quote: Foppert ? has even more upside than Williams. The right-hander throws in the mid-90s and has a hard slider.
Baseball America and John Sickels rated Foppert as the game's top pitching prospect. They were both right that he was better than Williams, for all the good it did them. Foppert never truly made it back from Tommy John surgery in 2003 and probably never will.
13.
Adam Wainwright - RHP Braves - Age 22 - ETA: July 2004
Previous rankings: 2002 #51, mid-2002 #13
BA: #18, BP: HM
9-6, 3.31 ERA, 149 H, 167/66 K/BB in 163 1/3 IP for Single-A Myrtle Beach
2003 quote: ?good enough to make him a No. 2 starter in the majors once he tightens up his control. Expect great things after he reaches Atlanta.
Wainwright went to the Cardinals for
J.D. Drew, became a postseason hero as a closer in 2006 and now seems to be settling in as a No. 3 starter, though he'll probably go on Opening Day for St. Louis.
14.
Victor Martinez - C Indians - Age 24 - ETA: July 2003
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #89
BA: #16, BP: #4
.336/.417/.576, 22 HR, 85 RBI, 62/58 K/BB, 3 SB in 443 AB for Double-A Akron
2003 quote: Martinez will be an outstanding fantasy catcher, perhaps the best in the league someday.
The debate about whether Martinez would survive as a catcher played a definite role in this ranking. He should have been in the top 10 anyway.
15.
Rich Harden - RHP Athletics - Age 21 - ETA: August 2003
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #19
BA: #29, BP: #12
4-3, 2.91 ERA, 49 H, 85/24 K/BB in 68 IP for Single-A Visalia
8-3, 2.95 ERA, 67 H, 102/52 K/BB in 85 1/3 IP for Double-A Midland
2003 quote: Signed in 2001 as a draft-and-follow, Harden has quickly pushed himself into the upper echelon of pitching prospects.
Harden topped the Midseason Top 150 before reaching the majors for the first time in the second half.
16.
Josh Hamilton - OF Devil Rays - Age 21 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: 2001 #2, mid-2001 #5, 2002 #16, mid-2002 #8
BA: #33, BP: NR
.303/.359/.507, 9 HR, 44 RBI, 46/20 K/BB, 10 SB in 211 AB for Single-A Bakersfield
2003 quote: Hamilton is as talented as anyone in the minors, but there is reason to be concerned that he will never reach his full potential.
Even before the substance abuse problems, injuries were taking a toll on Hamilton's stock. They still are now. There's no way the Reds would have given up for
Edinson Volquez if they thought he'd be good for 140 games per year.
17.
Gavin Floyd - RHP Phillies - Age 20 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: 2002 #94, mid-2002 #26
BA: #9, BP: HM
11-10, 2.77 ERA, 119 H, 140/64 K/BB in 166 IP for Single-A Lakewood
2003 quote: If he stays healthy, he could be the top pitching prospect in baseball at this time next year.
Floyd's stuff isn't what it was five years ago, and consistency with his still fine curveball has never come. There were some positive signs late last year, but he's now a fifth starter at best.
18.
Dewon Brazelton - RHP Devil Rays - Age 22 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: 2002 #32, mid-2002 #15
BA: #74, BP: NR
5-9, 3.33 ERA, 129 H, 109/67 K/BB in 146 IP for Double-A Orlando
1-0, 0.00 ERA, 5 H, 6/1 K/BB in 5 IP for Triple-A Durham
0-1, 4.85 ERA, 12 H, 5/6 K/BB in 13 IP for Tampa Bay
2003 quote: His curveball will be the deciding factor on whether he becomes a top-notch starter or not.
Brazelton was the third overall pick in the 2001 draft and had just turned in a solid first pro season, so I ranked him accordingly. The truth is that he never should have been drafted that high, and I should have recognized it.
19.
Jason Stokes - 1B Marlins - Age 21 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #27
BA: #15, BP: #11
.341/.421/.645, 27 HR, 75 RBI, 96/47 K/BB, 1 SB in 349 AB for Single-A Kane County
2003 quote: He'll probably lose some points off his batting average as he climbs the ladder, but Stokes should be good for 30-40 homers per season in the majors.
Stokes fell to .272/.345/.513 in 394 at-bats in Double-A in 2004 and hasn't had close to a healthy season since. In fact, he's totaled 345 at-bats in three years.
20.
Justin Morneau - 1B Twins - Age 21 - ETA: April 2004
Previous rankings: mid-2001 #24, 2002 #28, mid-2002 #25
BA: #14, BP: #30
.298/.356/.474, 16 HR, 80 RBI, 88/42 K/BB, 7 SB in 494 AB for Double-A New Britain
.282/.331/.423, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 31/11 K/BB, 0 SB in 142 AB for Phoenix (AFL)
2003 quote: Morneau has the potential to be one of the American League's better first basemen, batting over .300 and hitting 25 homers per year.
Morneau had a .319 average and 43 homers in 1,235 minor league at-bats up to this point. Given his build, it was obvious that more power would come. I undersold him at 25 homers per year.
<!--RW-->
21.
Jon Rauch - RHP White Sox - Age 24 - ETA: May 2003
Previous rankings: 2001 #10, mid-2001 #10, 2002 #13, mid-2002 #48
BA: #92, BP: NR
7-8, 4.28 ERA, 91 H, 97/42 K/BB in 109 1/3 IP for Triple-A Charlotte
2-1, 6.59 ERA, 28 H, 19/14 K/BB in 28 2/3 IP for Chicago (AL)
2003 quote: The 6-foot-11 right-hander has a low-90s fastball and fine control of his breaking pitches. He still has the potential to be a front-of-the-rotation starter.
No, not really. Rauch was a unanimous elite prospect after a 2000 season in which he struck out 187 and walked 49 in 166 innings, and he still needed to be taken seriously after a nice comeback from his shoulder problems. However, he was no future top-of-the-rotation guy. He has turned into a valuable setup man while throwing 178 2/3 innings the last two years.
22.
Chris Snelling - OF Mariners - Age 21 - ETA: April 2004
Previous rankings: 2001 #31, mid-2001 #26, 2002 #19, mid-2002 #21
BA: #39, BP: #10
.326/.429/.506, 1 HR, 12 RBI, 11/12 K/BB, 5 SB in 89 AB for Double-A San Antonio
.148/.207/.259, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 4/2 K/BB, 0 SB in 27 AB for Seattle
2003 quote: Injuries have been a problem throughout Snelling's career, and because of his ultra-aggressive style of play, it's possible that he'll continue to get hurt rather frequently.
I'm about through holding out hope at this point.
23.
Scott Kazmir - LHP Mets - Age 19 - ETA: 2006
Previous rankings: None
newyorkmets.com
BA: #11, BP: NR
0-1, 0.50 ERA, 5 H, 34/7 K/BB in 18 IP for Rookie Brooklyn
2003 quote: Maybe Kazmir will get hurt and never amount to anything, but he looks like a future ace right now. ? The sky is the limit.
Kazmir ranked as the No. 14 prospect in the mid-2004 update before being shipped to the Rays.
24.
Kurt Ainsworth - RHP Giants - Age 24 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: 2001 #14, mid-2001 #23, 2002 #33, mid-2002 #23
BA: #64, BP: #19
8-6, 3.41 ERA, 101 H, 119/43 K/BB in 116 IP for Triple-A Fresno
1-2, 2.10 ERA, 22 H, 15/12 K/BB in 25 2/3 IP for San Francisco
2003 quote: Ainsworth throws 92-94 mph and has four pitches. He projects as a quality No. 3 starter.
Ainsworth made the Giants in 2003 and went 5-4 with a 3.82 ERA in 11 starts before going down with a stress fracture in his shoulder blade. He was traded to the Orioles while still on the disabled list and gave up 36 earned runs in 33 innings over the rest of his career. Due to multiple shoulder surgeries, he hasn't pitched since 2004.
25.
Marlon Byrd - OF Phillies - Age 25 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: 2002 #22, mid-2002 #24
BA: #63, BP: #14
.297/.362/.476, 15 HR, 63 RBI, 98/46 K/BB, 15 SB in 538 AB for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre
.229/.250/.371, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 8/1 K/BB, 0 SB in 35 AB for Philadelphia
2003 quote: Expect him to hit .280 and post an 800 OPS in a typical season.
Byrd hit .303/.366/.418 in 495 at-bats as a rookie in 2003, but he never came close to doing it again until last season with the Rangers. It looks like he'll be a solid fourth outfielder going forward.
26.
Miguel Cabrera - 3B Marlins - Age 19 - ETA: August 2004
Previous rankings: mid-2001 #45, 2002 #41, mid-2002 #31
BA: #12, BP: #29
.274/.333/.421, 9 HR, 75 RBI, 85/38 K/BB, 10 SB in 489 AB for Single-A Jupiter
2003 quote: Cabrera still hasn't had his breakthrough season, but 2002 was another step forward, as he lined 43 doubles for Jupiter. ? He has the tools to develop into an All-Star.
BA's aggressive approach worked out very well here. Cabrera ended up playing just 69 more games in the minors.
27.
Hanley Ramirez - SS Red Sox - Age 19 - ETA: 2006
Previous rankings: None
BA: #19, BP: #33
.341/.402/.555, 6 HR, 26 RBI, 15/16 K/BB, 8 SB in 164 AB for Rookie GCL Red Sox
.371/.400/.536, 1 HR, 19 RBI, 14/4 K/BB, 4 SB in 97 AB for short-season Single-A Lowell
2003 quote: Since he's a 19-year-old who has yet to play full-season ball, he can't be considered one of the game's top 20 prospects just yet, but it's entirely possible that he'll be in the top 10 next year.
Ramirez had already gotten a reputation for attitude problems by this time, but those have been pretty much forgotten about now. Certainly he'd still be a terrific player now if not traded by the Red Sox, but I wonder if he'd still have the same relatively pristine reputation under the microscope in Boston.
28.
Jack Cust - OF/1B Rockies - Age 24 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: 2001 #22, mid-2001 #18, 2002 #25, mid-2002 #14
BA: NR, BP: HM
.265/.407/.524, 23 HR, 55 RBI, 121/83 K/BB, 6 SB in 359 AB for Triple-A Colorado Springs
.169/.295/.264, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 32/12 K/BB, 0 SB in 65 AB for Colorado
2003 quote: If Cust gets to an American League team, he'll immediately become an above average designated hitter.
By immediately, I meant in four years or so. Cust was ranked 38th by BA in 2001 and 100th in 2002, but they had given up on him by now, placing him 21st among Rockies prospects alone. Prospectus ranked him 37th in 2001 and 20th in 2002. If he didn't lose rookie eligibility with the Orioles in 2003, I would have gone ahead and kept ranking him.
29.
Casey Kotchman - 1B Angels - Age 20 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: 2002 #75, mid-2002 #34
BA: #13, BP: #27
.281/.390/.444, 5 HR, 50 RBI, 37/48 K/BB, 2 SB in 288 AB for Single-A Cedar Rapids
2003 quote: Kotchman has star potential, but a wrist injury limited him for the season straight season in 2002.
Kotchman still figures to justify the lofty rankings after hitting .296/.372/.467 as a 24-year-old in 2007.
30.
Scott Hairston - 2B Diamondbacks - Age 22 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #51
BA: #26, BP: #23
.332/.426/.563, 16 HR, 72 RBI, 74/58 K/BB, 9 SB in 394 AB for Single-A South Bend
.405/.442/.797, 6 HR, 26 RBI, 16/6 K/BB, 1 SB in 79 AB for Single-A Lancaster
.255/.333/.457, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 27/9 K/BB, 0 SB in 94 AB for Scottsdale (AFL)
2003 quote: The 2001 third-round pick could end up being an adequate left fielder in the majors, but if he can stay at second base, he'd do a nifty
Jeff Kent impersonation.
Hairston couldn't stay at second base, and he's yet to establish himself as much of a left fielder, though there's still time left. He hit .287/.337/.644 in 87 at-bats after joining the Padres last season.
31.
Bobby Jenks - RHP Angels - Age 22 - ETA: August 2003
Previous rankings: None
BA: #60, BP: #40
3-5, 4.82 ERA, 50 H, 64/14 K/BB in 65 1/3 IP for Single-A Rancho Cucamonga
3-6, 4.66 ERA, 49 H, 58/44 K/BB in 58 IP for Double-A Arkansas
1-1, 1.08 ERA, 33 H, 54/17 K/BB in 41 2/3 IP for Scottsdale (AFL)
2003 quote: Of course, of the top 30 or so pitching prospects in the minors, Jenks is one of the most likely not to have any kind of career at all in the majors. He's also one of the two or three pitchers most likely to develop into a real ace.
Jenks' arm wasn't going to hold up as a starter, but it looks like he'll last as a closer, especially after trading in some strikeouts for quicker outs in 2007.
32.
Adrian Gonzalez - 1B Marlins - Age 20 - ETA: April 2004
Previous rankings: mid-2001 #34, 2002 #34, mid-2002 #39
BA: #31, BP: #24
.266/.344/.437, 17 HR, 96 RBI, 112/54 K/BB, 6 SB in 508 AB for Double-A Portland
2003 quote: Gonzalez was the first player picked in the 2000 draft, but he's never been looked at as a future superstar. What he's going to be is a nice regular at first base.
Everyone seemed to be in agreement on Gonzalez after 2002. However, by the time 2004 rolled around, I still had him at No. 33, while BA put him at No. 52 and BP left him out of their top 50. By that time, people seemed pessimistic that he'd show even 15-homer power in the majors. However, he was always so young for his leagues that I remained encouraged. I think a similar thing is happening with
Ryan Sweeney right now.
33.
John Patterson - RHP Diamondbacks - Age 25 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: None
BA: #79, BP: #26
10-5, 4.23 ERA, 117 H, 104/45 K/BB in 112 2/3 IP for Triple-A Tucson
2-0, 3.23 ERA, 27 H, 31/7 K/BB in 30 2/3 IP for Arizona
2003 quote: Patterson, who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2000, throws in the mid-90s and has a very good curve. If he can stay healthy, he might be Arizona's ace someday.
Or he could be traded for
Randy Choate. Because he was out of options, the Diamondbacks dumped Patterson after he went 1-4 with a 6.05 ERA in eight starts and eight relief appearances in 2003.
34.
Aaron Cook - RHP Rockies - Age 24 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #37
BA: #41, BP: NR
7-2, 1.42 ERA, 73 H, 58/19 K/BB in 95 IP for Double-A Carolina
4-4, 3.78 ERA, 67 H, 32/18 K/BB in 64 1/3 IP for Triple-A Colorado Springs
2-1, 4.54 ERA, 41 H, 14/13 K/BB in 35 2/3 IP for Colorado
2003 quote: He did an outstanding job of keeping the ball on the ground while with the Rockies, and if that continues, he's going to have a lot of success.
This is one case where BP should have placed a lot less weight on a pitcher's strikeout rate.
35.
B.J. Upton - SS Devil Rays - Age 18 - ETA: 2007
Previous rankings: None
BA: #21, BP: NR
2003 quote: Upton is a quality defensive shortstop with plenty of offensive ability. He could start for Tampa Bay as soon as 2006.
BP wasn't ready to give a spot to a player who had yet to play a pro game. Upton was the second overall pick in the 2002 draft. The Pirates passed him over in favor of
Bryan Bullington.
36.
Aaron Heilman - RHP Mets - Age 24 - ETA: June 2003
Previous rankings: 2002 #77, mid-2002 #47
BA: #45, BP: #17
4-4, 3.82 ERA, 85 H, 97/28 K/BB in 96 2/3 IP for Double-A Binghamton
2-3, 3.28 ERA, 42 H, 35/16 K/BB in 49 1/3 IP for Triple-A Norfolk
2003 quote: Heilman, a Notre Dame product, nearly reached the majors in his first full season. It won't be much longer before he's the Mets' fifth starter.
Heilman still wishes he was in the rotation, but he's come close to justifying this ranking by settling in as one of the game's most valuable setup men.
37.
Dontrelle Willis - LHP Marlins - Age 21 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #98
BA: #43, BP: NR
10-2, 1.83 ERA, 91 H, 101/21 K/BB in 127 2/3 IP for Single-A Kane County
2-0, 1.80 ERA, 24 H, 27/3 K/BB in 30 IP for Single-A Jupiter
2003 quote: Willis' emergence as one of top pitchers in the minors last season has saved the
Matt Clement/
Antonio Alfonseca deal for the Marlins.
An ETA of 2005? Willis made just six more starts in the minors before debuting on May 9, 2003.
38.
Justin Huber - C Mets - Age 20 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #28
BA: #66, BP: #34
.291/.408/.470, 11 HR, 78 RBI, 81/45 K/BB, 1 SB in 330 AB for Single-A Capital City
.270/.370/.400, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 18/11 K/BB, 0 SB in 100 AB for Single-A St. Lucie
2003 quote: He's still two or three years away from the majors and catching prospects do have a tendency to regress offensively as they climb the ladder, but I'm optimistic.
Huber was always iffy behind the plate, and it turned out that he probably wasn't going to hold up physically as a catcher anyway. His career has stalled since the day the Royals acquired him for
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=3803"]Jose Bautista[/URL], but he did hit 18 homers in 286 at-bats in Triple-A last season. If he can stay healthy, he still figures to contribute.
39.
Ryan Anderson - LHP Mariners - Age 23 - ETA: April 2004
Previous rankings: 2001 #3, mid-2001 #7, 2002 #8, mid-2002 #29
BA: NR, BP: NR
2003 quote: Anderson has missed each of the last two seasons with torn labrums. Although that type of thing will knock him off a lot of prospects lists, he had no trouble making my top 100. ?
Randy Johnson established himself as a major leaguer at age 25 and Anderson could do the same.
I'm not very bright sometimes.
40.
Ricardo Rodriguez - RHP Indians - Age 24 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: 2002 #80, mid-2002 #50
BA: NR, BP: NR
5-4, 1.99 ERA, 56 H, 44/13 K/BB in 68 IP for Double-A Jacksonville
1-0, 3.86 ERA, 13 H, 14/7 K/BB in 11 2/3 IP for Triple-A Las Vegas
3-1, 3.60 ERA, 26 H, 14/7 K/BB in 25 IP for Triple-A Buffalo
2-2, 5.66 ERA, 40 H, 24/18 K/BB in 41 1/3 IP for Cleveland
2003 quote: Rodriguez doesn't have the most upside of Cleveland's outstanding group of pitching prospects, but he looks like a solid No. 3 starter to me.
BA ranked Rodriguez 69th in 2002, but he was a near miss this year. He never posted the same kind of strikeout rate at higher levels that he did in 2000 and 2001. It still looked like he might be useful in a limited role as later as 2005, but he's been a bust in the minors each of the last two years.
41.
Ken Harvey - 1B/DH Royals - Age 25 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: mid-2001 #48, 2002 #47, mid-2002 #61
BA: NR, BP: HM
.277/.342/.465, 20 HR, 75 RBI, 87/42 K/BB, 8 SB in 488 AB for Triple-A Omaha
.479/.537/.752, 7 HR, 34 RBI, 23/14 K/BB, 0 SB in 117 AB for Scottsdale (AFL)
2003 quote: Harvey's stock had been on the way down because of his mediocre season in Triple-A, but he changed things in a big way by putting together the greatest Arizona Fall League season ever.
On the one hand, I wouldn't have ranked Jenks nearly as highly if not for his stellar AFL season. But the same can be said about Harvey. After three years ruined by injuries, he's not even going to have the decent career as a role player that it looked like he would.
42. Andy Sisco - LHP Cubs - Age 20 - ETA: 2006
Previous rankings: None
BA: #53, BP: NR
7-2, 2.43 ERA, 51 H, 101/39 K/BB in 77 2/3 IP for short-season Single-A Boise
2003 quote: A second-round pick in 2001, Sisco is a 6'9", 260-pound left-hander with a 91-95 mph fastball and a filthy split-fingered offering. He's a pretty big injury risk at this point, but he has ace ability.
Sisco has remained healthier than expected, so he really should have made it. There's still time left for him to turn his career around, but he'd have to show an entirely new level of commitment.
43.
Cliff Lee - LHP Indians - Age 24 - ETA: June 2003
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #71
BA: #30, BP: #32
7-2, 3.23 ERA, 61 H, 105/23 K/BB in 86 1/3 IP for Double-A Harrisburg
2-1, 5.40 ERA, 11 H, 18/10 K/BB in 16 2/3 IP for Double-A Akron
3-2, 3.77 ERA, 36 H, 30/22 K/BB in 43 IP for Triple-A Buffalo
0-1, 1.74 ERA, 6 H, 6/8 K/BB in 10 1/3 IP for Cleveland
2003 quote: I'm not certain Lee will stay healthy, but if he does, he could be Cleveland's No. 2 starter in 2005.
It sure did seem like a good call for a couple of years.
44.
Shin-Soo Choo - OF Mariners - Age 20 - ETA: 2006
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #64
BA: #61, BP: #16
.300/.417/.440, 6 HR, 48 RBI, 98/70 K/BB, 34 SB in 420 AB for Single-A Wisconsin
.308/.460/.564, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 9/9 K/BB, 3 SB in 39 AB for Single-A San Bernadino
2003 quote: He is getting on base nearly 43 percent of the time since making his debut in the second half of 2001, and he's starting to show power. As a result, he's quickly emerging as one of the game's elite outfield prospects.
I was right in the middle on this one. Choo couldn't last in center field, hurting his stock considerably. He still projects as a useful player, though he be might more of a fourth outfielder than a regular against right-handers.
45.
Xavier Nady - OF Padres - Age 24 - ETA: April 2004
Previous rankings: mid-2001 #50, 2002 #58, mid-2002 #49
BA: #44, BP: HM
.278/.382/.583, 13 HR, 37 RBI, 40/28 K/BB, 2 SB in 169 AB for Single-A Lake Elsinore
.283/.329/.422, 10 HR, 43 RBI, 60/20 K/BB, 0 SB in 321 AB for Triple-A Portland
.323/.364/.516, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 6/2 K/BB, 1 SB in 31 AB for Peoria (AFL)
2003 quote: Nady won't be an All-Star as an outfielder, but he should be a very solid .280 hitter with 30-homer power.
Nady hit .278 with 20 homers in 431 at-bats last season, but since he's mediocre against right-handers and he's not an asset defensively, he should spend most of his career as a fourth outfielder.
<!--RW-->
46.
Juan Rivera - OF Yankees - Age 24 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: 2002 #56, mid-2002 #46
BA: #55, BP: #36
.308/.438/.462, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 3/2 K/BB, 0 SB in 13 AB for Rookie GCL Yankees
.325/.355/.502, 8 HR, 47 RBI, 39/13 K/BB, 5 SB in 265 AB for Triple-A Columbus
.265/.311/.361, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 10/6 K/BB, 1 SB in 83 AB for New York (AL)
2003 quote: As a .290 hitter with 20-homer power, Rivera should be an adequate regular in right field. Whether or not he goes beyond that will be determined by how well he masters the strike zone.
Rivera has a .291 average and 60 homers in 1,492 career at-bats, so I had him pegged pretty well. Still, he hasn't had a 500 at-bat season in his career, and it doesn't look like that will change in 2008.
47.
Khalil ++++++ - SS Padres - Age 23 - ETA: April 2004
Previous rankings: None
BA: #57, BP: #37
.270/.400/.297, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 6/5 K/BB, 0 SB in 37 AB for short-season Single-A Eugene
.317/.368/.525, 9 HR, 32 RBI, 33/12 K/BB, 0 SB in 183 AB for Single-A Lake Elsinore
2003 quote: ++++++ was probably the most polished player available in the 2002 draft and the Padres took him with the 14th overall pick.
++++++ drew the second-highest ranking among 2002 draft picks (Upton was higher). I underrated his defense or I probably would have him higher.
48. Jimmy Journell - RHP Cardinals - Age 25 - ETA: July 2003
Previous rankings: 2002 #95, mid-2002 #35
BA: NR, BP: NR
3-3, 2.70 ERA, 50 H, 66/18 K/BB in 66 2/3 IP for Double-A New Haven
2-4, 3.68 ERA, 38 H, 32/18 K/BB in 36 2/3 IP for Triple-A Memphis
2003 quote: When healthy, Journell showed why he's repeating as the Cardinals' top prospect. The right-hander touches 95 mph with his fastball and has a hard slider.
BP had Journell 44th in 2002, but dropped him after he missed time with elbow and shoulder problems, even though he was quite effective when he was on the mound. They were right to do so, as more arm woes were on the way.
49.
Michael Restovich - OF Twins - Age 24 - ETA: April 2004
Previous rankings: 2002 #66, mid-2002 #32
BA: #37, BP: NR
.286/.353/.542, 29 HR, 98 RBI, 151/53 K/BB, 11 SB in 518 AB for Triple-A Edmonton
.308/.357/.538, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 4/1 K/BB, 1 SB in 13 AB for Minnesota
.231/.309/.342, 2 HR, 22 RBI, 35/14 K/BB, 2 SB in 117AB for Phoenix (AFL)
2003 quote: Restovich isn't an elite prospect, but he does project as a solid left fielder in the majors. The Twins would like to see him cut down on the strikeouts before giving him a job, so Restovich is due to spend another season in Triple-A.
Restovich never did cut back on the strikeouts and won't have a career in the majors as a result.
50.
Jose Lopez - SS Mariners - Age 19 - ETA: 2006
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #79
BA: #38, BP: NR
.324/.360/.464, 8 HR, 60 RBI, 45/27 K/BB, 31 SB in 522 AB for Single-A San Bernadino
2003 quote: 18-year-old players who hit .324 in full-season ball tend to attract notice. That Lopez is also a slick-fielding shortstop makes him a pretty special prospect.
Lopez couldn't last at shortstop. Despite last year's setback, he still figures to justify this ranking by turning in a fine career as a second baseman.
51.
Bobby Bradley - RHP Pirates - Age 22 - ETA: Sept. 2004
Previous rankings: 2001 #20, mid-2001 #30, 2002 #52, mid-2002 #55
BA: NR, BP: NR
2003 quote: Bradley spent all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery. ? If he regains his stuff, he has the fastball and the curveball to be an excellent starter.
Bradley never made it all the way back. He did experience modest success in 34 minor league starts in 2003 and 2004, but he completely lost it in 2005, walking 30 and throwing 10 wild pitches in 12 1/3 innings, and he hasn't been heard from since.
52.
Chin-Hui Tsao - RHP Rockies - Age 21 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: 2001 #21, mid-2001 NR, 2002 #57, mid-2002 #44
BA: #93, BP: NR
0-0, 0.00 ERA, 6 H, 16/2 K/BB in 11 IP for Rookie Tri City
4-2, 2.09 ERA, 34 H, 45/12 K/BB in 47 1/3 IP for Single-A Salem
2003 quote: Tsao made a very impressive comeback from ligament replacement surgery in 2002. Most pitchers who undergo the Tommy John procedure struggle with their command when the first return, but Tsao walked just 14 in his 12 starts.
I don't feel bad about this one at all. Tsao seemed to recapture most of his potential when he went 11-4 with a 2.46 ERA, 88 H and 125/26 K/BB in 113 1/3 IP in Double-A in 2003, but he got hurt again in 2004 and hasn't had a healthy season since. It happens.
53.
John Buck - C Astros - Age 22 - ETA: April 2004
Previous rankings: 2002 #68, mid-2002 #43
BA: #67, BP: NR
.263/.312/.422, 12 HR, 89 RBI, 93/31 K/BB, 2 SB in 448 AB for Double-A Round Rock
.256/.292/.354, 1 HR, 15 RBI, 10/3 K/BB, 0 SB in 82 AB for Mesa (AFL)
2003 quote: Buck isn't quite on
Brad Ausmus' level with the glove, but he will be better than average. Offensively, he should be able hit .260-.270 with 20 homers per season while playing half his games in Minute Maid.
An inability to hit for average has kept Buck in the lower-tier of regular catchers, but since he doesn't turn 27 until July, he has time left to get a little better.
54.
Corey Hart - 3B/1B Brewers - Age 21 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #54
BA: #91, BP: NR
.288/.356/.573, 22 HR, 84 RBI, 101/37 K/BB, 24 SB in 393 AB for Single-A High Desert
.266/.340/.362, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 16/7 K/BB, 3 SB in 94 AB for Double-A Huntsville
.275/.327/.443, 3 HR, 20 RBI, 46/11 K/BB, 5 SB in 149 AB for Maryvale (AFL)
2003 quote: If he can become an adequate third baseman over the next two years, then he has All-Star potential. It's more likely that he eventually has to move back to first base, and since he doesn't have any more offensive upside than
Brad Nelson or
Prince Fielder, he could become trade bait.
A nice victory for me. Looking back now, the bizarre thing is that the Brewers had Hart at first base in the first place. He was quick enough to handle center and probably should have been groomed as an outfielder right from the start.
55.
Kelly Johnson - SS Braves - Age 21 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: 2002 #46, mid-2002 #74
BA: NR, BP: NR
.255/.324/.394, 12 HR, 49 RBI, 105/51 K/BB, 12 SB in 482 AB for Single-A Myrtle Beach
2003 quote: It's about time that the Braves move the 2000 supplemental first-round pick off of shortstop. Whether he ends up at third base or in the outfield could depend on Betemit. Johnson is going to hit enough to be able to play an outfield corner in the majors.
BP dropped Johnson from No. 47 to out of the top 100 based on a poor year at a very tough place for hitters. Johnson was one of my favorite prospects, so I was perfectly willing to look past that.
56.
Kris Honel - RHP White Sox - Age 20 - ETA: Sept. 2004
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #80
BA: #73, BP: NR
9-8, 2.82 ERA, 128 H, 152/52 K/BB in 153 1/3 IP for Single-A Kannapolis
0-0, 1.69 ERA, 3 H, 8/3 K/BB in 5 1/3 IP for Single-A Winston Salem
2003 quote: Honel has No. 2-starter potential if he can avoid arm problems.
Honel's arm blew up in 2004, and he's posted ERAs over 5.00 when he's been able to pitch the last three years.
57.
Alex Escobar - OF Indians - Age 24 - ETA: Sept. 2003
Previous rankings: 2001 #8, mid-2001 #13, 2002 #31, mid-2002 #53
BA: NR, BP: NR
2003 quote: Escobar missed last season after tearing an ACL in the spring. The Indians don't expect him back at full speed in 2003, and plan to have him play a corner instead of his usual center field.
Another case of me being too patient with an injured prospect. Maybe Escobar would have learned to kick some of his bad habits had he been able to stay healthy. It doesn't look like we'll ever know.
58.
Macay McBride - LHP Braves - Age 20 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #78
BA: #68, BP: NR
12-8, 2.12 ERA, 119 H, 138/48 K/BB in 157 1/3 IP for Single-A Macon
2003 quote: Like
Adam Wainwright, McBride could be a No. 2 starter if he stays healthy. He is a fairly big injury risk.
The Braves didn't think McBride was big enough to hold up as a starter, but he hasn't been able to find any consistency as a reliever. In 103 1/3 innings as a major league reliever, he's walked 64, an average of 5.6 per nine innings. In the minors, he walked 3.3 per nine innings.
59.
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=3586"]Chad Tracy[/URL] - 3B Diamondbacks - Age 22 - ETA: April 2004
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #33
BA: NR, BP: NR
.344/.389/.486, 8 HR, 74 RBI, 51/38 K/BB, 2 SB in 514 AB for Double-A El Paso
.143/.208/.143, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 4/2 K/BB, 0 SB in 21 AB for Scottsdale (AFL)
2003 quote: Tracy is a line-drive hitter who rarely strikes out. He should be an average regular in the majors, one capable of batting .300 and hitting 15-20 homers per season.
Surprisingly, Tracy didn't get a lot of love despite the outstanding average in Double-A. He's showed better power than expected in the majors, but he's hit .300 just once in four years.
60.
Sean Burnett - LHP Pirates - Age 20 - ETA: May 2004
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #70
BA: #25, BP: NR
13-4, 1.80 ERA, 118 H, 96/33 K/BB in 155 1/3 IP for Single-A Lynchburg
2003 quote: Burnett had some of the best numbers in the minors last season and now has a 2.38 ERA since being selected in the first round of the 2000 draft. Still, he's not an elite pitching prospect.
BA was very high on Burnett despite his lack of stuff. He probably wouldn't have justified their faith even if he didn't get hurt.
61.
Jimmy Gobble - LHP Royals - Age 21 - ETA: July 2003
Previous rankings: 2002 #62, mid-2002 #41
BA: NR, BP: NR
5-7, 3.38 ERA, 71 H, 52/19 K/BB in 69 1/3 IP for Double-A Wichita
2003 quote: Gobble got in just a half season last year because of a groin injury and a minor shoulder problem. ? He projects as a No. 3 starter in the majors.
BA had Gobble ranked 50th in 2002, but dropped him after he missed half of the season. Gobble has remained healthy since, but he was massive bust as a starter before seemingly finding his niche as a reliever.
62.
Felix Pie - OF Cubs - Age 18 - ETA: 2007
Previous rankings: None
BA: #72, BP: NR
.321/.385/.569, 4 HR, 37 RBI, 47/21 K/BB, 17 SB in 218 AB for Rookie AZL Cubs
.125/.222/.250, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 1/1/ K/BB, 0 SB in 8 AB for short-season Single-A Boise
2003 quote: Pie could be a star someday, but because he is four or five years away from the majors, fantasy leaguers shouldn't start drooling yet.
It looks like we're about to finally see whether this aggressive ranking pans out.
63.
Kevin Youkilis - 3B Red Sox - Age 24 - ETA: April 2004
Previous rankings: None
BA: NR, BP: HM
.283/.433/.377, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 8/13 K/BB, 0 SB in 53 AB for Single-A Augusta
.295/.422/.388, 3 HR, 48 RBI, 37/49 K/BB, 0 SB in 268 AB for Single-A Sarasota
.344/.462/.500, 5 HR, 26 RBI, 18/31 K/BB, 5 SB in 160 AB for Double-A Trenton
.216/.341/.304, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 21/19 K/BB, 1 SB in 102 AB for Scottsdale (AFL)
2003 quote: With 166 walks in 676 career at-bats, Youkilis is one of the most intriguing prospects in the minors. ? He doesn't have much home run power, but there's reason to think that he'll manage 30 doubles and 12 homers per season as a major leaguer.
One gamble that paid off. I still went a little too far in ranking him ahead of
Hanley Ramirez in 2004.
64.
Boof Bonser - RHP Giants - Age 21 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: 2002 #53, mid-2002 #68
BA: NR, BP: NR
8-6, 2.88 ERA, 89 H, 139/70 K/BB in 128 1/3 IP for Single-A San Jose
1-2, 5.55 ERA, 30 H, 22/14 K/BB in 24 1/3 IP for Double-A Shreveport
2003 quote: Obviously, control is a problem, but Bonser throws in the mid-90s and has a quality curve and changeup. He could emerge as a No. 2 starter if he tames his wild streak.
Bonser's stuff fell off before he was traded to Minnesota in the
A.J. Pierzynski deal. He'll probably collect six to eight years of service time anyway, but he might belong in the bullpen.
65.
Jonny Gomes - OF Devil Rays - Age 22 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #60
BA: NR, BP: NR
.278/.432/.574, 30 HR, 72 RBI, 173/91 K/BB, 15 SB in 446 AB for Single-A Bakersfield
2003 quote: Scouts don't think much of him, but Gomes has been one of the best hitters in the minors since being selected in the 18th round of the 2001 draft.
Held back by poor management and a badly timed shoulder injury in 2006, Gomes could still end up justifying this ranking or he could find himself playing in Japan in a couple of years. I don't know what's going to happen.
66.
Erik Bedard - LHP Orioles - Age 24 - ETA: July 2004
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #56
BA: NR, BP: NR
6-3, 1.97 ERA, 43 H, 66/30 K/BB in 68 2/3 IP for Double-A Bowie
0-0, 13.50 ERA, 2 H, 1/0 K/BB in 2/3 IP for Baltimore
2003 quote: Even though he underwent Tommy John surgery in September, Bedard is Baltimore's No. 1 prospect and the only player in the system in the Top 100.
BP had the better approach with injured starters, but this one paid off for me.
67.
Josh Karp - RHP Expos - Age 23 - ETA: August 2003
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #30
BA: #71, BP: NR
4-1, 1.59 ERA, 31 H, 43/11 K/BB in 45 1/3 IP for Single-A Brevard County
7-5, 3.84 ERA, 83 H, 69/34 K/BB in 86 2/3 IP for Double-A Harrisburg
0-5, 5.79 ERA, 31 H, 27/16 K/BB in 28 IP for Maryvale (AFL)
2003 quote: Karp, the sixth overall pick in 2001, had a strong pro debut in 2002, dominating Florida State League competition before looking solid in Double-A. ? Karp has No. 3 starter written all over him.
One of the biggest draft busts of the decade, Karp never had a decent season after 2002. He's been out of baseball since 2005.
<!--RW-->
68.
James Loney - 1B Dodgers - Age 18 - ETA: 2006
Previous rankings: None
BA: #34, BP: HM
.371/.457/.624, 5 HR, 30 RBI, 18/25 K/BB, 5 SB in 170 AB for Rookie Great Falls
.299/.356/.388, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 10/6 K/BB, 0 SB in 67 AB for Single-A Vero Beach
2003 quote: Loney was the Dodgers' first-round pick in 2002. Many teams liked him more as a pitcher, but the Dodgers used him at first base and the results were eye catching. ?Since he's got a great glove in addition to his bat, he should already be considered one of the top first base prospects in baseball.
BA ranked him 34th even though he suffered a broken wrist towards the end of the season. The wrist problems ended up lingering, but he overcame them eventually and seems set to turn in an excellent career.
69. Drew Henson - 3B Yankees - Age 23 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: 2001 #40, mid-2001 #17, 2002 #15, mid-2002 #17
BA: NR, BP: NR
.240/.301/.435, 18 HR, 65 RBI, 151/37 K/BB, 2 SB in 471 AB for Triple-A Columbus
.000/.000/.000, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0/0 K/BB, 0 SB in 1 AB for New York (AL)
.211/.304/.401, 6 HR, 23 RBI, 40/19 K/BB, 1 SB in 147 AB for Maryvale (AFL)
2003 quote: However, the positives still outweigh the negatives at this point. Henson has ability and intelligence, and even though the NFL has to be in the back of his mind, he seems dedicated to baseball.
Henson gave up on baseball after hitting .234/.291/.412 in Triple-A in 2003. If the Yankees hadn't been so aggressive with him -- he had his first extended trial in Triple-A during his age-21 season -- things might have turned out differently.
70.
Jeremy Bonderman - RHP Tigers - Age 20 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: None
BA: #20, BP: HM
9-8, 3.61 ERA, 129 H, 160/55 K/BB in 144 2/3 IP for Single-A Modesto
0-1, 6.00 ERA, 11 H, 10/4 K/BB in 12 IP for Single-A Lakeland
2003 quote: He has tons of potential, but his control is rather shaky and he's a pretty big injury risk. Still, he has the 93-mph fastball, slider and changeup to develop into another Weaver-type ace for Detroit.
Yeah, I should have him a lot closer to where BA did, even if he has been the game's most overrated pitcher up to this point in his career (56-62, 4.78 ERA).
71.
Clint Nageotte - RHP Mariners - Age 22 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: None
BA: #76, BP: #35
9-6, 4.54 ERA, 153 H, 214/68 K/BB in 164 2/3 IP for Single-A San Bernadino
1-0, 4.00 ERA, 10 H, 10/2 K/BB in 9 IP for Peoria (AFL)
2003 quote: The 1999 fifth-round pick doesn't throw particularly hard, usually keeping his fastball in the low-90s, but his slider is already a proven out pitch, one that should hold up at higher levels.
Nageotte got hurt after a nice season in Double-A in 2003 and was essentially done as a promising pitcher. He's 1-6 with a 7.78 ERA and a 26/30 K/BB ratio in 41 2/3 major league innings.
72.
Brandon Claussen - LHP Yankees - Age 23 - ERA: July 2004
Previous rankings: 2002 #63, mid-2002 #58
BA: NR, BP: NR
2-8, 3.28 ERA, 85 H, 73/46 K/BB in 93 1/3 IP for Triple-A Columbus
2003 quote: Claussen underwent Tommy John surgery last June, so he won't be pitching in the minors for the first two or three months of 2003. Before getting hurt, Claussen had a 90-93 mph fastball and a quality slider.
Another case of me being too aggressive with an injured pitcher.
73.
Mike Jones - RHP Brewers - Age 19 - ETA: 2006
Previous rankings: 2002 #90, mid-2002 #59
BA: #56, BP: NR
7-7, 3.12 ERA, 135 H, 132/62 K/BB in 138 2/3 IP for Single-A Beloit
2003 quote: Jones throws in the mid-90s and could get more strikeouts as his secondary pitches develop. Assuming he doesn't get hurt, he's three years away from the majors.
Arm problems have limited Jones to 110 innings in four seasons. It's doubtful he'll develop now.
74.
Franklyn German - RHP Tigers - Age 23 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: None
BA: #42, BP: NR
1-1, 16 Sv, 3.05 ERA, 28 H, 59/27 K/BB in 41 1/3 IP for Double-A Midland
1-1, 13 Sv, 1.59 ERA, 15 H, 31/7 K/BB in 22 2/3 IP for Triple-A Toledo
0-0, 1 Sv, 0.00 ERA, 3 H, 6/2 K/BB in 6 2/3 IP for Detroit
2003 quote: It's not any kind of a secret that the Tigers view German as their closer of the near future. ? His split-fingered fastball is turning into a legitimate out pitch.
German's command failed to improve with age. He has a 99/106 K/BB ratio in 137 innings as a major leaguer.
75.
Andy Marte - 3B Braves - Age 19 - ETA: 2006
Previous rankings: None
BA: #40, BP: NR
.281/.339/.492, 21 HR, 105 RBI, 114/41 K/BB, 2 SB in 488 AB for Single-A Macon
2003 quote: If Marte, a native of the Dominican Republic, is the age he says he is, then he's another one of Atlanta's tremendous prospects.
Marte's age never came into question. I had him 16th and BA placed him 11th on the 2004 list.
76.
Seung Song - RHP Expos - Age 22 - ETA: April 2004
Previous rankings: mid-2001 #49, 2002 #61, mid-2002 #69
BA: NR, BP: NR
7-7, 4.39 ERA, 106 H, 116/37 K/BB in 108 2/3 IP for Double-A Trenton
0-0, 0.00 ERA, 5 H, 5/0 K/BB in 5 IP for Double-A Harrisburg
2003 quote: He's not a future ace, but I like his upside better than
Josh Karp's.
After 3 ? seasons of striking out at least a batter an inning, Song's K rate fell well off in 2003 and his stock was already well down by the time he broke his arm in 2004. He decided to try his luck in Asia after going 5-10 with a 5.37 ERA for Double-A Wichita in 2006.
77.
Lyle Overbay - 1B Diamondbacks - Age 26 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #81
BA: #65, BP: NR
.343/.396/.528, 19 HR, 109 RBI, 86/42 K/BB, 0 SB in 525 AB for Triple-A Tucson
.100/.100/.100, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 5/0 K/BB, 0 SB in 10 AB for Arizona
2003 quote: If he gets 500 at-bats next season, he should hit .300 with 20 homers.
The Diamondbacks blew it with Overbay in 2003 and sent him to the Brewers in the
Richie Sexson deal that winter. He's hit .300 in two of the subsequent four seasons, but he's still reached 20 homers and 90 RBI just once.
78.
Travis Hafner - 1B Indians - Age 25 - ETA: Now
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #114
BA: #46, BP: #20
.342/.463/.559, 21 HR, 77 RBI, 76/79 K/BB, 2 SB in 401 AB for Triple-A Oklahoma
.242/.329/.387, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 15/8 K/BB, 0 SB in 62 AB for Texas
2003 quote: He's traveled a long road to get there, but Hafner is finally getting taken seriously as a prospect. He entered last season with a minor league OPS of 907 in five years, but because he's not very good defensively and he's usually been too old for his leagues, the Rangers weren't including him in their plans.
I thought they seemed liked perfectly good reasons to not go overboard with Hafner's ranking. Hafner had 41 homers, one triple and 47 doubles in 724 at-bats in his last two years in the minors. Now, that's quite good, but it's hardly overwhelming and he was both old for his leagues and playing in very good situations for hitters.
Jason Botts had 49 homers, 10 triples and 56 doubles in 991 at-bats for the same two clubs at the same ages. Hafner did have superior on-base skills, so it looked like he'd a nice solution in the middle of Cleveland's lineup for a few years when they stole him for
Einar Diaz. He certainly never figured to have any 40-homer seasons. He had better slugging percentages each season from 2004-06 than he did at any level in the minors.
79.
Billy Traber - LHP Indians - Age 23 - ETA: July 2003
Previous rankings: 2002 #96, mid-2002 #85
BA: NR, BP: NR
13-2, 2.76 ERA, 99 H, 82/20 K/BB in 107 2/3 IP for Double-A Akron
4-3, 3.29 ERA, 58 H, 33/12 K/BB in 54 2/3 IP for Triple-A Buffalo
2003 quote: Traber, a 2000 first-round pick, rarely touches 90 mph with his fastball, but he has the breaking stuff to become a solid No. 3 starter.
Traber underwent Tommy John surgery after going 6-9 with a 5.24 ERA for the Indians in 2003 and never returned at peak form, though he did pitch in the majors for the Nationals each of the last two years. He'll be in Yankees camp this spring.
80.
Jason Arnold - RHP Blue Jays - Age 23 - ETA: Sept. 2003
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #84
BA: #97, BP: #25
7-1, 2.48 ERA, 64 H, 83/22 K/BB in 80 IP for Single-A Tampa
1-2, 4.15 ERA, 17 H, 18/5 K/BB in 17 1/3 IP for Double-A Norwich
5-1, 2.33 ERA, 42 H, 53/24 K/BB in 58 IP for Double-A Midland
2003 quote: Arnold throws in the low-90s and has the slider and changeup to become a No. 3 starter in the majors.
Arnold's 228/68 K/BB ratio in his first 1 ? pro seasons made him a stathead favorite, but his velocity slipped and he never got over the Triple-A hump.
81.
Jeff Mathis - C Angels - Age 20 - ETA: 2006
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #94
BA: #48, BP: NR
.287/.346/.444, 10 HR, 73 RBI, 75/40 K/BB, 7 SB in 491 AB for Single-A Cedar Rapids
2003 quote: Mathis was one of the top hitters in the Midwest League in the early going, but he ended up fading as last season progressed.
Mathis ranked 17th on my list and 22nd on BP's in 2004. His stock has gone downhill every year since, but he's still going to have a long career, even if it's just as a backup.
82.
Bobby Crosby - SS Athletics - Age 23 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #93
BA: NR, BP: NR
.307/.393/.404, 2 HR, 38 RBI, 43/33 K/BB, 5 SB in 280 AB for Single-A Modesto
.281/.335/.443, 7 HR, 31 RBI, 41/19 K/BB, 9 SB in 228 AB for Double-A Midland
.250/.368/.438, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 9/5 K/BB, 1 SB in 32 AB for Phoenix (AFL)
2003 quote: Crosby is the top prospect among Oakland's outstanding group of middle infielders. The 2001 first-round pick isn't an elite talent, but he's an adequate defensive shortstop with on-base skills and improving power.
Also included in that group of outstanding middle infielders were
Esteban German,
Freddie Bynum and
Adam Morrissey. Not so impressive now.
83.
Kenny Baugh - RHP Tigers - Age 24 - ETA: August 2004
Previous rankings: 2002 #24, mid-2002 #52
BA: NR, BP: NR
2003 quote: Baugh missed 2002 with a torn labrum.
That's basically all you need to know. Baugh, the 11th overall pick in the 2001 draft, came back to post solid numbers in the minors with the Tigers, but his stuff was no longer major league quality. He went 7-9 with an 8.19 ERA for Triple-A Albuqerque last season.
84.
David Wright - 3B Mets - Age 20 - ETA 2006
Previous rankings: None
BA: #75, BP: HM
.266/.367/.401, 11 HR, 93 RBI, 114/76 K/BB, 21 SB in 496 AB for Single-A Capital City
2003 quote: Wright has solid regular written all over him. ... In a best-case scenario, he will turn into Robin Ventura, though a Travis Fryman comparison may be more appropriate.
Ventura is one of the game's most underrated players of the last 20 years. Still, that clearly wasn't the best-case scenario.
85.
Grady Sizemore - OF Indians - Age 20 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: 2002 #88, mid-2002 #108
BA: NR, BP: NR
.258/.351/.348, 0 HR, 26 RBI, 41/36 K/BB, 9 SB in 256 AB for Single-A Brevard County
.343/.451/.483, 3 HR, 20 RBI, 30/33 K/BB, 14 SB in 172 AB for Single-A Kinston
2003 quote: Sizemore was a borderline top-100 prospect before getting shipped to the Indians in the
Bartolo Colon deal, and he seemed to blossom after joining the Cleveland organization. He hasn't developed any power yet, but he projects as a .300-15 HR- 30 SB center fielder.
Oddly, BA was late to the party on Sizemore, not including him in their 2002 list either. They had him ninth in 2004, while I placed him 20th.
86.
Ryan Madson - RHP Phillies - Age 22 - ETA: June 2004
Previous rankings: None
BA: NR, BP: NR
16-4, 3.20 ERA, 150 H, 132/52 K/BB in 171 1/3 IP for Double-A Reading
2003 quote: Madson baffled Eastern League hitters with his outstanding changeup in 2002. The 1998 ninth-round pick has a low-90s fastball and a quality curveball, but it's the changeup that makes him a potential starting pitcher for the Phillies.
Madson bombed as a starter in 2006, but he's been a very good setup man when healthy. This was right about where he should have been.
87.
Todd Wellemeyer - RHP Cubs - Age 24 - ETA: May 2004
Previous rankings: None
BA: NR, BP: NR
2-4, 3.79 ERA, 63 H, 87/19 K/BB in 73 2/3 IP for Single-A Daytona
3-3, 4.70 ERA, 33 H, 37/18 K/BB in 46 IP for Double-A West Tenn
1-2, 3.12 ERA, 24 H, 40/12 K/BB in 34 2/3 IP for Mesa (AFL)
2003 quote: Wellemeyer has become one of my favorite prospects. The 2000 fourth-round pick throws 93-94 mph, has an excellent changeup and his curveball is an improving third pitch.
Wellemeyer never really improved his command with his age, though he did manage to post a 3.65 ERA in first 11 major league starts with the Cardinals last season. He might be better off all along as a starter.
88.
Brad Nelson - 1B Brewers - Age 20 - ETA: 2006
Previous rankings: None
BA: #23, BP: NR
.297/.353/.520, 17 HR, 99 RBI, 86/34 K/BB, 4 SB in 417 AB for Single-A Beloit
.255/.333/.451, 3 HR, 17 RBI, 28/12 K/BB, 0 SB in 102 AB for Single-A High Desert
2003 quote: The Brewers certainly aren't hurting for first baseman. Nelson might get overshadowed by
Prince Fielder, but he has some of the best power potential in the minor leagues.
Nelson hit just two homers in 310 at-bats after returning from a broken hamate bone in 2003 and hasn't had a big power season since. The Brewers put him back on their 40-man roster after he hit .263/.317/.470 with 20 homers in 411 at-bats for Triple-A Nashville last season, but he's a long shot to ever make an impact.
89.
Jose Castillo - SS Pirates - Age 22 - ETA: 2005
Previous rankings: None
BA: #86, BP: NR
.300/.373/.453, 16 HR, 81 RBI, 95/49 K/BB, 27 SB in 503 AB for Single-A Lynchburg
2003 quote: Improved strike-zone judgment has Castillo looking like a real prospect. His .373 OBP last season was a dramatic increase over his .318 career total entering the year.
It didn't last. Castillo's OBP fell off to .339 in Double-A in 2003, and he never recovered from the Pirates' misguided decision to rush him to the majors to begin 2004. He's a career .256/.297/.380 hitter in 1,492 at-bats