February 12

#1
Back to write-ups. No more plays today. This is it. :thumbsup

Tennessee-Martin -10 (-120, 2.4 units to win 2 units)
Tennessee-Martin -5.5 (-115, 1.15 units to win 1 unit)

UTM is a hot, hot basketball team. 14-1 in their 15. Beat Jax St. by 19 on the road earlier this season. Their three starting guards combined for 61 points. Meanwhile, after a decent start to the season, Jax St. has not be too good recently... especially on the road. They only have 2 road conference victories. One was over SEMO. Jax St. probably hit its lowest point of the season with a 10-pt home loss to a Tennessee State team that currently has a ton of issues. In front of a home crowd, I think UTM continues their win streak with a big win over Jax... 25-30 points for Lester H.

Gonzaga -4 (-120, 2.4 units to win 2 units)
That's more points that I want to give on the road to a conference opponent. But I don't think St. Mary's stick with the Zaggs without Mills. We saw what happened in one half without Mills. And while Day/Heyvelt - Simpson/Samhan frontcourt battle should be good and close, Pargo and the Zags should be able to win the game in the backcourt. St. Mary's really needs a win here, but I think the Zags want to and will avenge their double digit loss to Memphis with a solid victory over the #2 team in their conference.

Illinois -2 (1.1 units to win 1 unit)

I really like the Illini's front court of Tisdale and Davis vs. most teams, Northwestern included. Northwestern has been solid this year, but Illinois is arguably the second best team in the Big 10. Northwestern has won 5 of their past 7, but two of those wins were over Chicago State and Indiana (and the Indiana win was only 2 points). During that time the team has also managed to lose to Iowa. I wouldn't be surprised if Northwestern won this game, so I'm keeping this bet small... but the Illini should be able to win this game in the front court.

Buffalo/EMU u119 (1.1 units to win 1 unit):
Buffalo: Low 60s, EMU: low 50s/high 40s - I could be wrong, but neither of these teams have been scoring a ton lately or giving up a ton of points either.

UTM/Jax St o149 (1.1 units to win 1 unit):
I expect UTM score into the 80s or 90s at home tonight.

ML Parlay: 1 unit to win 2.02 units

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR class=evenRow><TD class=dateCell>02/12/2009 @ 04:00 PM </TD><TD class=idCell>CBB</TD><TD class=pickCell>[719] BUFFALO -500</TD></TR><TR class=oddRow><TD class=dateCell>02/12/2009 @ 05:00 PM </TD><TD class=idCell>CBB</TD><TD class=pickCell>[726] NORTH TEXAS -600</TD></TR><TR class=evenRow><TD class=dateCell>02/12/2009 @ 05:00 PM </TD><TD class=idCell>CBB</TD><TD class=pickCell>[730] SOUTH ALABAMA -800</TD></TR><TR class=oddRow><TD class=dateCell>02/12/2009 @ 07:00 PM </TD><TD class=idCell>CBB</TD><TD class=pickCell>[737] SAN DIEGO -1200</TD></TR><TR class=evenRow><TD class=dateCell>02/12/2009 @ 07:30 PM </TD><TD class=idCell>CBB</TD><TD class=pickCell>[753] SANTA CLARA -400</TD></TR><TR class=oddRow><TD class=dateCell>02/12/2009 @ 04:00 PM </TD><TD class=idCell>CBB</TD><TD class=pickCell>[762] SIENA -1100</TD></TR><TR class=evenRow><TD class=dateCell>02/12/2009 @ 04:00 PM </TD><TD class=idCell>CBB</TD><TD class=pickCell>[767] DAVIDSON -900</TD></TR><TR class=oddRow><TD class=dateCell>02/12/2009 @ 05:45 PM </TD><TD class=idCell>CBB</TD><TD class=pickCell>[778] TENN MARTIN -600</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Buffalo has been playing pretty well lately, and EMU is on my fade list for ML parlays until their only win over a D-1 opponent isn't a home OT-win over Central Michigan. North Texas over New Orleans and South Alabama over FIU are both cases of taking the better team at home. San Diego and Santa Clara are both solid squads matching up against two of the worst teams in D1 this year: Loyola Marymount and Pepperdine. Siena has been money at home pretty much all season... and definitely in conference. Manhattan isn't terrible, but I don't think Siena is going to take the night completely off and blow this at home when they are playing for a seed that will give them a better chance of getting out of the first round of the tournament. I don't see Davidson dropping a 2nd conference game in a row. UTM has already been discussed. I will admit that 8 teams is a little much for a parlay.

Good luck, everyone! :cheers
 
#5
Re: February 12

lets bail this ship out tonight.

you've been taking on to much water lately.

time to right the ship

good luck tonight
and the good news is, we're not oppisite anything
 
#6
Re: February 12

And I just got home to see that the Zags won by 2 but didn't cover 4, and that Illinois won by 1 and didn't cover the 2. Happy with my capping in general. Only up a 1/2 unit. Nailed the UTM/Jax game with all 3 bets... and if the Zags and Ill had covered their small spreads... it would've been a +7 unit night... instead only up 0.5 units. At least I feel like I'm on the right track.
 
#7
Re: February 12

Progress is made one step at a time.... unfortunately. Regression can happen overnight. Get some momentum going to the weekend Goon. You got screwed tonight and still came out ahead so heres to you :cheers
 
#8
Re: February 12

Thanks Natty. I think the real issue was I was up 25-30 units or so, and I got a little ahead of myself as a rookie, and started doing less work. Hit a big downslide over the course of the week, and I'm starting to get myself back on track. Back to less plays, more write-ups, and more work :cheers

Let's tear it up this weekend. :thumbsup
 
#9
Re: February 12

Now that I actually look everything over... Illinois probably didn't deserve to cover (even the two), but the Zags should've. Zags were the bigger play though.
 
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