Flu deaths by year

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#1
These are strictly US numbers. Not worldwide.

2018-19 34,000
2017-18 61,000
2016-17 38,000
2015-16 23,000
2014-15 51,000
2013-14 38,000
2012-13 43.000
2011-12 12,000
2010-11 37,000

avg: 37,444
median: 38,000
 

Chi_Archie

EOG Senior Member
#2
wow what a fresh take. If nothing else. From now on Americans are going to understand to wash their damn hands and don't try to power through the flu because it can potentially kills hundreds or thousands of people in a chain event that went through you.

numbers like this and Cardivascular disease death numbers should be sobering, instructive and a reminder of the work we need to do once our amazing scientific community comes up with cures and new care options in record time.

To make any comparisons between the Flu historical numbers and CV19 projections is kind of like taking Vince Carter's career cumulative numbers and comparing it to Zion Williamson's career numbers and saying

Vince Carter is a much more dangerous basketball player when the NBA starts up again than Zion because has only 448 career points in the NBA and vince has 25k

not to mention that NBA defenses can all get a Vince Carter Vaccine, AND the human body is genetically designed to fight Vince Carter (Flu) as its a human virus and Zion is a novel animal strain that the defenses (body) have zero defense for. Also


ultimately CV19 is already killing more daily than the flu. And we don't seem to be going down do we?

further more the Flu has never been given a season where Ventilators, PPE, and Doctors, Nurses started to run out. This is where we are going. Our hospitals will collapse and people with other illnesses that normally got the proper care to save them will die in parking lots along with people gasping for air from FLU and CV19 on the ground.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#3
wow what a fresh take. If nothing else. From now on Americans are going to understand to wash their damn hands and don't try to power through the flu because it can potentially kills hundreds or thousands of people in a chain event that went through you.

numbers like this and Cardivascular disease death numbers should be sobering, instructive and a reminder of the work we need to do once our amazing scientific community comes up with cures and new care options in record time.

To make any comparisons between the Flu historical numbers and CV19 projections is kind of like taking Vince Carter's career cumulative numbers and comparing it to Zion Williamson's career numbers and saying

Vince Carter is a much more dangerous basketball player when the NBA starts up again than Zion because has only 448 career points in the NBA and vince has 25k

not to mention that NBA defenses can all get a Vince Carter Vaccine, AND the human body is genetically designed to fight Vince Carter (Flu) as its a human virus and Zion is a novel animal strain that the defenses (body) have zero defense for. Also


ultimately CV19 is already killing more daily than the flu. And we don't seem to be going down do we?

further more the Flu has never been given a season where Ventilators, PPE, and Doctors, Nurses started to run out. This is where we are going. Our hospitals will collapse and people with other illnesses that normally got the proper care to save them will die in parking lots along with people gasping for air from FLU and CV19 on the ground.
I agree the publicity over the Coronavirus and hygiene probably will keep down flu cases and deaths next year. That is a good thing. And there actually is a flu pandemic this year.

I didn't editorialize at all. Just a point about perspective.

Zero defense for Coronavirus? Not even considering the anti-malaria drug, Remdesivir (Gilead) is getting close. Regeneron is also getting close. Vaccines a bit further down the road; Moderna and Inovio hoping to have vaccines approved by fall.
 

Chi_Archie

EOG Senior Member
#4
Zero defense as in Flu vs novel viruses are apples and oranges. Talking endogenous defense not exogenous

when you get the flu even as tiny tiny baby, your immune system was gentically coded to have some defenses and recognize innately how to fight that virus

as an adult every time you've ever come into contact with a flu from the time you were a baby to now has given your immune system new data as each set of flu strain from year to year is a slight tweak from the molecular structure you encountered as a baby. So you have antibodies, natural killer cells and macrophages that already know how to dispatch with the invader.

with Novel viruses, they come from an animal strain. Its completely different from human strains. So when it infects the body. There are zero gentically coded procedures for your body to know how to fight it.

its like when an NFL offense first ran a gimmick offense like the wild cat against a defense. at first it was very difficult to defend and even half time adjustments weren't enough

it took weeks of film review to build up the nfl immune response to the new invader

that's how your body works with novel viruses


but just like the flu, people that are old don't have enough time to come up with a defensive plan

unfortunately if you have a body mass index over 25, you have diabetes, you have high blood pressure, you have respiratory illness, you smoke or usd to smoke, you drink too much, you have an immune illness, you are fighting cancer ect. you are at very high risk.

How many Americans fall into those high risk categories?

you also might not have enough time to formulate a defense

a new risk factor

not having a ventilator. That will increase deaths 10x fold once we hit those levels.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#5
I think one of the biggest concerns, which hasn't been addressed yet, and won't for awhile because the virus is so new, is are there repercussions for those who recover?

Supposedly those who recovered from SARS had higher cancer rates than the general population. This virus is closest to SARS in terms of makeup.
 

Chi_Archie

EOG Senior Member
#6
I think one of the biggest concerns, which hasn't been addressed yet, and won't for awhile because the virus is so new, is are there repercussions for those who recover?

Supposedly those who recovered from SARS had higher cancer rates than the general population. This virus is closest to SARS in terms of makeup.

Yes there has been evidence in possible reduced lung capacity of up to 30% for some with even mild symptoms. They think it could be reovered in 10-15 years. They end up with an afflication called ARDS Acute respiratory distress syndrome

but not everyone has that kind of time.

and yes it would increase risk of other respiratory illnesses being deadly as well as possible cancer risks

Here is a big piece of why experts take this so serious. When you don't know how something will play out. you just don't know. To predict best case scenario and be optimistic would be fool hardy.

Until you have scientific data that shows that for sure this can't be recaught, and until we know this thing will stop mutating. We don't know if this will cycle back every year until we have a vaccine in a slightly different strain and kill off those that had it bad but recovered this year.

remember with the vaccine. once it is made, trialed, found safe.

how quick do you think you get 7 billion people vaccinated? It might take 3-4 months just for that process. Its going to be complicated In the mean time people will still be dying of CV and the Flu
 
#8
Age is important too. Viruses even 100 years ago were a big reason why human lifespan was around 50 and 200 years ago it was around 40. The Spanish flu of 1917 probably would have been even more devastating to the population if the age pyramid back then was anything like it is today. Viruses attack all, but very disproportionately kill or seriously harm older and weaker individuals. As we continue to extend life expectancy and manage to keep alive those with serious health issues which may have killed them in the past, we will have more and more viruses develop that attack the same groups and in nature speak, cull the population.
 

DotPark

EOG Addicted
#9
I think one of the biggest concerns, which hasn't been addressed yet, and won't for awhile because the virus is so new, is are there repercussions for those who recover?

Supposedly those who recovered from SARS had higher cancer rates than the general population. This virus is closest to SARS in terms of makeup.
This is an excellent point.
Contracted the virus 1st week of March.
Still home recovering.
 

DotPark

EOG Addicted
#12
Sounds like a long recovery, hopefully the worst is over for you. Best wishes, get well soon.
Appreciate that, it is.
Thought I had cold. No travel though.
Was misdiagnosed with a sinus infection.
Got my brother/roommate sick.
He tested positive. Living a nightmare.
On top of it all, no sports to bet.
 
#15
"Worldwide, more than 4% of patients—nearing 19,000 -- have died, with many more to come, and each death its own heartbreaking story."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/opini...itz/index.html

COVID-19 death rate: 4.4%:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


Flu death rate: 0.060%, less than one tenth of 1% this season:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

Those figures make the COVID-19 death rate about 73 times higher than the flu death rate.

Also COVID-19 is way more infectious than the flu.

"public health threat most serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic":

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1155944
 
#17
Here’s what I know here in NYC
13 patients died in a queens hospital today alone
they have morgues outside of some emergency rooms, long lines to get into ER
the mayor says 4 Million people in nyc will have had this by october
the hospital admittance rate slowed today but the hospitals are all ready
overwhelmed like a third world country here in the state with the best medical care
in the country. There’s no where to hide. We are really short supplies , ventilators and Ill
prepared to handle other medical issues
 
#18
Here’s what I know here in NYC
13 patients died in a queens hospital today alone
they have morgues outside of some emergency rooms, long lines to get into ER
the mayor says 4 Million people in nyc will have had this by october
the hospital admittance rate slowed today but the hospitals are all ready
overwhelmed like a third world country here in the state with the best medical care
in the country. There’s no where to hide. We are really short supplies , ventilators and Ill
prepared to handle other medical issues
Long ago, a good skiing buddy of mine, who grew up in Seattle, did his residency in Harlem Hospital. Pretty wild.

Another good skiing friend from Seattle did his residency in Rochester, MN, probably better care there than NYC.
 
#19
" More transmissible and fatal than seasonal influenza, the new coronavirus is also stealthier, spreading from one host to another for several days before triggering obvious symptoms. To contain such a pathogen, nations must develop a test and use it to identify infected people, isolate them, and trace those they’ve had contact with. That is what South Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong did to tremendous effect. It is what the United States did not."

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/
 
#21
Can you catch this bitch 2x? I just read in post you can but that’s basically the enquirer.
A family member who is a pharmacist gave me a good rundown of this and so maybe I have an answer that is relevant.

You could catch it again, but its likely the 2nd time or later will be far less threatening. The mutations the virus takes will likely be very minor and so your body will recognize it and have some immune response to it. That's why even though the virus may be different in the future, the vaccines under development will focus on something that likely won't change, mostly around how it attaches to and/or attacks your healthy cells. So the point of vaccination is to get your body to recognize these key features and respond to it. This is very in line with flu vaccines, they may not be perfect and not handle exactly the type you are exposed to, but your body should still be able to handle it somewhat before you get sick and have to summon a larger delayed response to rid yourself of it. Vaccines for flu see key characteristics and go after them with an immune response. However when MERS, SARS and Swine Flu came along, those key features weren't there so having taken a flu vaccine did you no good, same for Covid 19.
 
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