Formula One 2013 Thread

#1
Chinese Grand Prix Pole Position betting is up at Betfair and only Betfair. Just sitting here watching the odds on Vettel and Webber get worse. Webber was high at +700 (Alonso and Hamilton +500ish but he's moving down. Vettel is -115 and by the time I can bet he's going to be worse.

To win (average prices on British books)

Vettel -170
Alonso -350
Raikkonen -600
Hamilton -800
Webber -900
Rosber -1200

At some point Massa is going to make someone a lot of money since his form has improved so much. He's -2000ish.
 
#3
Re: Formula One 2013 Thread

Sorry I pasted and meant to put a hyphen and then a space and instead like a dumbass I fucked it up. So again and including everyone (and using bet365 to mix things up):

To Win Chinese Grand Prix

Vettel +187
Alonso +330
Raikkonen +600
Hamilton +900
Webber +800
Rosberg +1200
Button +2200
Massa +2000
Grosjean +3300
Perez +5000
Sutil +5000

Sorry again.

allin, I think I'm going to wait till after qualifying, assuming that Vettel gets pole (and with Ferrari's strength not being single laps) and bet Alonso then when his odds will hopefully be better. Thoughts?
 
#4
Re: Formula One 2013 Thread

LCD, Ferrari did quite well in quali in Malaysia. If Alonso qualifies second the odds on him might drop. They are +450 at betfair now. It is the only bet I would place before seeing any kind of action in China (practice laps and/or quali).

Another thing that I would consider doing is bet against Vettel (lay bet at exchange) if he gets pole and odds on him drop below 2.1 (+110). The thing is, even with pole, I still consider his chances to win the gp below 45%. In other words, I would bet 5% of the bankroll on him NOT to win at -110.
 
#5
Re: Formula One 2013 Thread

LCD, Ferrari did quite well in quali in Malaysia. If Alonso qualifies second the odds on him might drop. They are +450 at betfair now. It is the only bet I would place before seeing any kind of action in China (practice laps and/or quali).

Another thing that I would consider doing is bet against Vettel (lay bet at exchange) if he gets pole and odds on him drop below 2.1 (+110). The thing is, even with pole, I still consider his chances to win the gp below 45%. In other words, I would bet 5% of the bankroll on him NOT to win at -110.
For Alonso, I think that's probably good then. I just think that realistically he comes in 2nd to 6th in qualifying and anything worse than 2nd and he's about +450 especially if Vettel and/or Webber beat him by like half a second. In the shortsighted betting market, his fuckup last weekend has made him a little less attractive. Hamilton says Mercedes is second best team now? Maybe just wait on the Pirelli controversy to make sure Red Bull doesn't whine its way to a change in the next three weeks. I definitely would bet Vettel not to win race after he wins pole but I'll probably have to wait for William Hill if they put that up since I can't use Betfair. Vettel is actually getting close to pick for winning pole -103 (still only at Betfair) so maybe it will stay like that when everyone else puts it up. Also enjoying other teams telling Red Bull they have to control Vettel. Pretty funny. Also thoughts on a small bet on Webber at +750ish now.
 
#6
Re: Formula One 2013 Thread

Webber is driving pretty well too, +800 on him could be ok, especially if the odds on him will drop if he qualifies in top 2. If you think he should be in top 3 in quali, and you can hedge your position before the race starts, should be an interesting bet. But if you can't use betfair, maybe betdaq or matchbook ?
 
#7
Re: Formula One 2013 Thread

Watched the Australian gp replay. I am sticking with Alonso for China until I see them driving around the track a little. No other bets come in mind. It's strange how we have come to bet not on the fastest driver, but on the team with the best strategy and the driver who preserves tires the best. Id Massa looks fast in practice or quali I might consider him for the podium.

http://www1.skysports.com/formula-1...an-Vettlel-over-Malaysian-Grand-Prix-incident

"Bernie Ecclestone thinks that Sebastian Vettel was right to ignore team orders at the Malaysian Grand Prix."

hehe.he also said a couple of days back that he thought it was too early in the season for team orders, and that both drivers are theoretically in the title race so they should fight for points until the title is out of reach for one of them.
 
#8
Re: Formula One 2013 Thread

No change to Pirellis. Vettel line getting better for pole so just waiting. Alonso at +375 which is a little too low. Liking Rosberg at +1200. The Mercedes is good. He seems better at Hamilton in managing his tires. He won it last year. 5th the year before. 3rd in 2010. But waiting on that too. You bet anything yet allin.
 
#9
Re: Formula One 2013 Thread

Vetel for pole, Alonso for race, Hamilton for podium.

I would have taken Kimi for podium too at anything above +200

alonso, kimi, hamilton would make a nice podium, but I am just day dreaming.

Still waiting to see them out there before I make the big bets
 
#11
Re: Formula One 2013 Thread

Vetel for pole, Alonso for race, Hamilton for podium.

I would have taken Kimi for podium too at anything above +200

alonso, kimi, hamilton would make a nice podium, but I am just day dreaming.

Still waiting to see them out there before I make the big bets
That sounds good but I'm going to wait on Alonso till after qualifying since I don't think the car is fast for single laps and his line will go up. Also liking Webber (+900) and Rosberg (+1200) for small bets. Hamilton at +200 for podium also isn't that great and I would wait on that till after qualifying and hope Vettel and Webber go 1,2. Still 11 more days.

This is a good one (F1's) for race winners, qualifying, practice, fastest laps etc..

http://www.formula1.com/results/season/2012/

What else did you want.
 
#13
Re: Formula One 2013 Thread

Statsf1 is good but it helps to be able to read French.

Is the compare stuff on 4mula1.ro helpful for head-to-heads.
 
#14
Re: Formula One 2013 Thread

Statsf1 is good but it helps to be able to read French.

Is the compare stuff on 4mula1.ro helpful for head-to-heads.
I don't know about the compare stuff but I like the stats for every gp. Click on any gp and you will have a table with stats for all drivers

RA - races

VI - victories

PD - podiums

PL - pole positions

FL - fastest laps

FIP - finish in points

PO - points

Hamilton is the only one with 2 wins in China, Vettel the only one with 3 poles, Alonso and Lewis with 2.

For the other site, myy French is not that good but translate.google.com does the job.
 
#16
Re: Formula One 2013 Thread

I think Hamilton is going to have a good season. I don't know if the Mercedes is the second best car on the grid like Hamilton says but if it isn't second best (it might be with it's FRIC suspension) it's right behind Ferrari and/or Lotus. I think someone to watch is Rosberg because he might not be as quick as Hamilton but he's very steady (surviving Schumacher how could he not be) and if he gets a little lucky I think he can win a few races.

Allin can't wait any longer for qualifying so:

Vettel for pole position - 1.2 unit +110
Webber for pole position - .4 unit +550

I think China is really going to suit the Red Bull in qualifying. I hope Alonso gets like 4th and then I would like to bet him for the win if the odds are above +400. Tires are P Zero White medium and P Zero Yellow soft.
 
#18
Re: Formula One 2013 Thread

back in action. missed it. I want to go to the monaco gp. Hope I will make it.

there is something about the mercs for this race (china) and maybe even the whole season...

recreational bet on vettel for p1.
 
#21
Re: Formula One 2013 Thread

You should be able to. Vettel and Hamilton or Vettel and Alonso. I always hate when Red Bull sandbags during practice but I still like my pole bets. I don't understand why Vettel's +163 and Webber's +900. This has probably happened 50 times where they fuck around looking unremarkable. So fuck it. I'm betting it again.

Vettel for pole position - 1 unit +163
Webber for pole position - .2 unit +900

So in for 2.8 units. One time. Then probably Hamilton and Alonso for the win but will wait till after qualifying.

McLaren is looking better.
 
#25
Re: Formula One 2013 Thread

I think I will take this more seriously and start tracking the bets with units like you do.
Let's nit it up!

I was fucking around with fastest laps at the end of last year for too much so I decided to make my bets smaller but still make several of them each race so the swings wouldn't be as big.
 
#28
Re: Formula One 2013 Thread

it was just 0.1 just to get my fix :)

massa could have probably gone fastest if it wasn't for traffic

can't wait for quali. it should be interesting
 
#29
Re: Formula One 2013 Thread

vettel for pole is now at +350 but I am not interested yet.

0.5 on Roseberg for pole @+740. Should have his car fixed in 2 hours.
 
#31
Re: Formula One 2013 Thread

Wow did I blow this one. Webber is up to +1200.
It's amazing how lines change from one session to the next.... and because everything is so unpredictable because of the tyres, I don't know what to make of them any more.
 
#32
Re: Formula One 2013 Thread

as I said, massa could have probably finished fastest in p3 so maybe there is value on him for pole @+500 and above, but I still wouldn't rely on the p3 times for this.

vettel for pole is already +700, webber +1800

are you taking these? I don't think they were bluffing, they still might struggle.
 
#33
Re: Formula One 2013 Thread

I've bet enough for this at the bad lines. I don't think they were even trying but I don't want to drop down a hole with 5 units on qualifying when the tires are fucking tilting everyone. This shit is so nerve wracking. It's more tense than the race.

There's less than 10 minutes left and the shit hasn't even really started. Come on SV.
 
#37
Re: Formula One 2013 Thread

My main bet in my mind was still Hamilton for race but I didn't place it yet. I hope I won't regret it, but I will still bet on him at whatever odds even if he takes pole.
 
#39
Re: Formula One 2013 Thread

I told you I had a feeling about the mercs for this race but I wasn't expecting rb to be so consistently slower.
 
#40
Re: Formula One 2013 Thread

Same as before. Want Vettel to win pole but bet Hamilton and/or Alonso and Rosberg maybe too for the race.
 
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