Game Analysts 2013 Baseball Plays

APRIL 1, 2013 ... 907... Colorado Rockies +141

Going to take a shot on the Rockies here. Gallardo is tough to hit but he doesn't mind walking you and Rockies lineup has some decent numbers against him. He throws a ton of pitches but not a ton of innings and that might mean Brewers bullpen. I admit that I expect the Brewers pen to bounce back this year but they can hardly be considered reliable.

Chacin is embracing the role of opening day pitcher and of course prefers to be away from Coors but not coming off the greatest tail end of the Spring so there is some concern there.

Ramirez is terrible Braun protection (assuming he is) ? and price is inflated. Chacin also a short innings pitcher btw ... so those of you with 2H betting options might want to take a look at that over as a possibility. Going with the Rockies and an over umpire would help the cause for the away team.

Some quick thoughts on the other games:
  • A J Burnett is certainly a player that I look to fade as the year progresses. He is older and has not just hinted at retirement but has all but declared this will be his last year. The Pirates don?t rate to inspire him as the season wears on ? but there are quite a few reasons that I cannot go against here. The season opener IS something he may care about and there are some other factors on his side. He has been a great April Pitcher the last few years and his day/night splits are pretty dramatic in favor of the day over that same span. He has some decent numbers vs. some key Cubby bats as well. Certainly cannot back him against a better pitcher with a minus sign so will wait for a better situation/spot to go against.
  • As a handicapper, I usually create my line and then compare it to market afterwards. After I made the Marlins at Washington line, I thought to myself that there was no way that they could make the Nats a big enough favorite. I was wrong. Any value in that game is with the Marlins but I have no interest in backing them here. It is still baseball --- Nats ace could pitch a dandy and lose --- it isn?t like Nolasco has never had a good outing. I hate the situation ? excited fanbase on opening day with the stud pitcher who they held from the playoffs for the long term on the hill ? tough for the fish. You will never see me lay this kind of a number in a baseball game.
Re: Game Analysts 2013 Baseball Plays

April 3rd Baseball Plays

4-2 on the season for +1.9 units

905 San Diego Padres +136
The Mets were 20th in the league in BA against lefties last season and Clayton Richard seemed to be getting better as spring progressed, though he was so bad early spring there was nowhere to go but up. Citi Field has similarities to Petco and Richard was 8-5 with a 3.02 earned run average on a horrible baseball team. He had one start in Citi last year where he gave up 4 runs in 6 innings but that was from a pair of unlikely back to back homers for 4 runs in the first inning to two players who won?t be in the lineup Wednesday. He did settle down and pitch 5 scoreless after that and he is a groundball pitcher in my estimation.

The combination of Mets batting vs. lefties, his groundball style and the park being similar to his home park where he pitches well seems like a good equation and if the Mets are able to string hits on the ground through the holes to generate runs, then so be it.

Harvey pitched decently for the Mets last year but the Padres batters hit him exceptionally well and Harvey is one of those strikeout pitchers that throws a lot of pitches per inning. I would expect Richard to last longer in this one and an extra inning vs. the pen in this league is often the difference.

On a neutral field, I would actually give the Padres the minus sign for this game but I did make the Mets a small favorite at home --- but this price is too good to not take a shot on the lowly Padres.
Re: Game Analysts 2013 Baseball Plays

April 4th Baseball ... 5-5-0 ... -0.95 units

Yesterday?s Games ?
Yankees - Kuroda was already in trouble and when he was taken from the game after a line drive that went off him, and it was destined to get worse. Clay pitched better than expected/normal vs. the Yankees and Boston controlled the game from beginning to end.

Jays ? The worry was a rare sighting of the ?good? Jimenez and that was what happened. Jays couldn?t generate offense and they wasted a good outing from Morrow. Game went to extras where we are now 0-2.

Padres ? This was just a beatdown ... Harvey went 7 innings of 1-hit baseball and Richard got rocked basically from the opening bell.

Oakland ? Managed to get the job done after falling behind two quick runs.

Today's Games -

Well, we are going to have action on all of them! Using the Grand Salami Over 89 for the 11 scheduled games today. Let's get some runs!!
Re: Game Analysts 2013 Baseball Plays

April 5th Baseball Plays ... 6-8 ... -2.96 units

Yesterday’s Games — Kansas City managed to pull out a win with a 3 run inning in what was almost their only true threatening inning of the entire game. Both pitchers got the job done in their starts. White Sox out-hit and out-threatened the Royals and we were fortunate to win the investment.

Angels out-hit, out-threatened and just generally outplayed the reds yesterday but failed over and over again to get the key hit to win the game and ended up losing by a run. The Reds hit several home runs and though I did not make blurbs yesterday,,, that was a major concern with his flyball nature in that tiny little sandbox.

I feel ok about the Salami bets .. Away teams played basically even in hits/runners and we just got the short end of efficiency ( namely a huge hr discrepency ). The hits for the away teams should have equated to a lot more runs. I feel pretty locked in.

Friday's Play ... Royals +107
Re: Game Analysts 2013 Baseball Plays

April 6th Baseball Plays ... 9-9 ... -0.57 units

978 ... Houston +124

I am going back to the Astros, who we won with in the season opener. Bartolo is now 39 years old, a complete known, and coming off a suspension for performance enhancing drugs. Colon is a flyball pitcher, which should not play well in MinuteMaid against a flyball out team. The Astros haven’t seen much of him but Colon isn’t going to fool people anymore.

Bedard’s stuff looked good against Texas, where he gave up just one hit in 3.1 innings pitched. Oakland hit just .236 off lefties last year and shockingly the A's have seen extremely little of Bedard who is 34 himself, but the young pup in this one.

Astros could really use a win in one of the next two games as they will be making their first West Coast divisional road trip following this series. A loss today and then on Sunday (which would not just be 1-5 but 1-5 in the division) could make the wheels fall off. I like them to at least split the next two and this is the better match up.
Re: Game Analysts 2013 Baseball Plays

April 9th Baseball Plays
12-13 ... -2.17 units

904 ... Phillies, -1.5 Runline, +125
1904 ... Phillies, 1st 5, -1/2, -130

Backing Cliff Lee and those guys from the City of Brotherly Love in their tilt against the Mets (D. Gee).
Re: Game Analysts 2013 Baseball Plays

24-29-3, -5.63 units

April 15th Baseball Plays ... 914, Toronto -127

The offense has been very inconsistent to start. I am not a huge fan of the 34 year old version of Buehrle in general but he should be motivated up against his old mates. While I am sure the White Sox know Buehrle well as an organization, only Alex Rios on that roster has seen a pitch from the man. ChiSox have just 25 AB against left handed pitching this deep into the year and have scored just 2 runs in those AB. It could be an adjustment for them having seen just Gio Gonzalez as a left-handed starter. They struck out 7 times and had 4 hits in those five innings against a lefty starter. Melky, Izturis, and Lind have all seen Floyd well in the past. More motivated team and a motivated starter. I will try it.
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April 16th Baseball ... Thoughts are with Boston

26-34-3, -8.96 units

977 ... Kansas City, +165

Not a good run so far. No fear we don’t end up ok in baseball, but it is demoralizing. What happened at the Boston Marathon puts my silly worries in perspective however. Houston is right on the edge where it sits now but have to pass. We have a big card as it is anyway.
Re: Game Analysts 2013 Baseball Plays

Kansas city — Guthrie has pitched well his first two starts. He gace up a few ding dongs in his last start but his team ha a big lead and it was his responsibility to throw strikes over the heart of the plate in that situation. I have to mention the homer concern because Atlanta has 20 already this year. Guthrie’s ERA was 1.26 points better on the road than in kauffman last year. Medlen has had two good starts for the braves but those were against the anemic offenses of the Marlins and Phillies. Obviously Medlen has been good and consistently good and all the braves do is win every time he starts but I will take a shot here on the less meaningful game for a hiccup at a price.
Re: Game Analysts 2013 Baseball Plays

April 17th Baseball

31-39-3, -9.80 units

I am sort of stuck between a rock and a hard place in regards to the Angels. My rating for the team and their performance have not matched and it has caused large losses. The problem is that their underperformance keeps getting the market lines where they are undervalued and I have to back that.

Baseball is a game where you don’t really want to back the slumping team but again the bats aren’t really slumping. Just a strange scenario.


921 Angels -119
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April 25th Baseball

Up 9.93 units this week and have just 1 play for today.

Tampa Bay/Chicago White Sox under 7 (-115)

8:10pm EDT first pitch from US Cellular Field in Chicago

Hellickson takes the hill for the Rays, coming off a 1-0 shutout of Oakland last Saturday and is 1-1 with a 3.55 era on the season.

Sale gets the ball for the Pale Hose and is looking to rebound after back-to-back losses ... 3-1 to Toronto where he went 7 innings and 9-4 to Cleveland where he lasted just into the 5th.
Re: Game Analysts 2013 Baseball Plays

April 26th Baseball

Got a push in the Tampa/ChiSox game Thursday, but we move on to the start of the weekend with a large card headlined by ...

YOUR Cleveland Indians (+145).

The Tribe send Scott Kazmir to the hill on the road against the KC Royals and Ervin Santana from Kauffman Stadium at 8:10pm EDT.

Cleveland has won 3 of its last 4 games, heading into this 4-game series while Kansas City kicks off a 9-game homestand after splitting each of its last 3 series.

Kazmir has just one start this year after beginning the campaign on the DL, allowing 6 runs on 8 hits and issuing 3 walks in 3 2/3 innings to the Houston Astros in a 19-6 Cleveland win. This will mark just his 3rd start since the end of the 2010 season.

Santana is 2-1 with a 2.48 era in 4 starts this year, waling just 5 and striking out 26 in 29 innings of work. He picked up a win Sunday at Fenway Park, limiting the Red Sox to 2 runs on 6 hits and struck out 7 over 7 innings.
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April 29th Baseball

901 ... Washington ... -132

7:10pm EDT, Turner Field, Atlanta

Washington bats saw Teheran back on April 12th and Harper went deep on him as the Nats ran him out after just 5 innings pitched. This eliminates some of the “never been seen factor”. Teheran has been terrible at Turner Field over a small sample dating back to 2011.

Strasburg has to be motivated at 1-4 on the year and also must be motivated facing another young pitcher after being outdueled by Harvey earlier in the year. Strasburg has pitched extremely well but has suffered from poor run production and poor defense behind him. He took the loss on April 13th against these same Braves despite not allowing an earned run.

Strasburg is 13-4 as an away pitcher over the last three years. Some mild concern that some of the Atlanta bats have actually hit him pretty well but I really like this spot.
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April 30th Baseball

962 ... Arizona ... +101

9:40pm EDT ... San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks ... Chase Field ... Phoenix

Arizona ? Cahill has been suffering from similar problems as Strasburg to start the year in that he simply doesn't get run support ? 3, 3, 1, 3 and 1 in his 5 starts this year.

Cahill is a perfect fit for the ballpark, as he throws a heavy ground ball. He has been extremely hard to hit and if he has had a problem, it has been with walks, but most of that came in two starts against a patient Rockies lineup.

SF is way below league average in walks and the aforementioned ground ball bias induces double plays that can get him out of potential jams. Good numbers against Giants bats (28 hits in 38.1 innings pitched the last 3 years vs. this team), good home pitcher, good night pitcher. I prefer the Dbacks lineup.

Not much to dislike about Bumgarner but the Dbacks just saw him for 7 1/3 innings a week ago. A few key bats see him well. Three-year splits show an under .500 away pitcher (better form now though). He has thrown a whopping 515 pitches in April already! And that almost always catches up to a pitcher at some point.

Concerns are Bumgarner form and Arizona lack of ability to hit lefties so far this year.
Re: Game Analysts 2013 Baseball Plays

May 8th Baseball ... 88-87-12, -2.32 units

955, Miami Marlins, +140

I am obviously a buyer on Nolasco to start this year and he continues to pitch well. His weakness has been the HR allowed (6 in about 41 innings pitched) but that weakness matches up well here.

Even with the new dimensions, Petco is still better than most parks for the flyball pitcher and the Padres are near the bottom of the league in homers and homers off righties (Miami the worst). 3-year-splits show Nolasco as a far better away pitcher than home pitcher. Some concern that the Padres roster has seen him well in the past.

There is no sugar coating the Marlins offense --- they stink --- but one thing that can help a struggling offense is a pitcher who has to try to be fine with his pitches and as a result walks a lot of guys.

Enter Jason Marquis.

Marquis has struggled against his opponents roster, 3-year-splits show a 7-13 home record, and he has walked a lot of guys his last few outings. Sure, he may trust his stuff here more against a Marlins team that might struggle to score playing in a tee-ball game, but the matchup is good.

With this big of a plus sign, I have to take a shot.