Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

pvcpipe

pvcpipe

EOG Master
It's pretty rare that I'm going to get the best number available that week on a CFB game. Maybe, but probably not. But I do feel like to have a winning college football season, you have to beat the closing number. Not for middles (and I'm not knocking the practice in the least), but just to have continuous +EV wagers every Saturday. (Or Thursday. And every now and then maybe Friday and Tuesday).


My question for gen pop....do you:

1. Just not give a shit about line movement. You like your plays and that's all that matters.

2. Lay off if you've already missed the best number, because you refuse to take anything less than the absolute best of it.

3. Feel like as long as you beat the close, you're getting the better of it and that's good enough for you.


I'm definitely #3. Thoughts?
 
H

High Times

EOG Master
Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

What if you bet the closer's?

Does that mean you can't beat the closer's?

oij213490
 
N

newport2

EOG Dedicated
Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

Most tack-ons(followers) end up broke. There is no shame in staying on the sidelines. The more followers and greedy beards(laying bad #s) that Billy Walters can influence, the greater his ROI. Pump and dump!
 
wantitall4moi

wantitall4moi

2
Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

best number beats closers, but there will be many here who will try to say beating closers is the only thing that matters, despite all the data I have that says otherwise. Which is roughly from 2000 til last year in the NFL, 2003 to last year in the NBA, 2003 to last year in NCAA hoops and football, and 2001 til last year in MLB.
 
Jeff Jones

Jeff Jones

2
Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

There is a best number.

And then there is the best number at the time.

Sometimes you guess wrong.

In your defense, nobody is Kreskin. (Well, other than Kreskin.)
 
pvcpipe

pvcpipe

EOG Master
Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

High Times said:
What if you bet the closer's?

Does that mean you can't beat the closer's?

oij213490
Click to expand...

I can't with any consistency. I don't have the skill. Certainly not saying that it can't be done.
 
wantitall4moi

wantitall4moi

2
Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

no one is going to get the best number every time, but if you can do it 80% of the time that is a good point. Over 85% of the time and you have a gift for it. 90%+ of the time and you could maybe council a few guys one on one as an adviser and tell them the timing of their plays.

And once you get up into that 90% prediction rate you should be looking to take leads and buy back anyway and make money regardless. because pure scalps are a rare thing these days but with a high confidence level like that you can bet almost like you know the scalp will come eventually.
 
Timely Hero

Timely Hero

Jacoby Blows
Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

wantitall4moi said:
best number beats closers, but there will be many here who will try to say beating closers is the only thing that matters, despite all the data I have that says otherwise. Which is roughly from 2000 til last year in the NFL, 2003 to last year in the NBA, 2003 to last year in NCAA hoops and football, and 2001 til last year in MLB.
Click to expand...

At least you finally got caught up in your lie - last time you brought this up you said you had info back to 2005 in every sport.

Also, for all this data you speak of you've never posted one piece of it.. In fact, you've posted numbers and said "this is just a guess, not from my data."
 
Timely Hero

Timely Hero

Jacoby Blows
Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

wantitall4moi said:
no one is going to get the best number every time, but if you can do it 80% of the time that is a good point. Over 85% of the time and you have a gift for it. 90%+ of the time and you could maybe council a few guys one on one as an adviser and tell them the timing of their plays.

And once you get up into that 90% prediction rate you should be looking to take leads and buy back anyway and make money regardless. because pure scalps are a rare thing these days but with a high confidence level like that you can bet almost like you know the scalp will come eventually.
Click to expand...

Why would you scalp off plays that have a higher expected value than the actual scalp?
 
pvcpipe

pvcpipe

EOG Master
Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

Jeff Jones said:
There is a best number.

And then there is the best number at the time.

Sometimes you guess wrong.

In your defense, nobody is Kreskin. (Well, other than Kreskin.)
Click to expand...


Kreskin had shit for power ratings. This is well known.
 
I

InvstmntWagring

EOG Enthusiast
Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

pvcpipe said:
It's pretty rare that I'm going to get the best number available that week on a CFB game. Maybe, but probably not. But I do feel like to have a winning college football season, you have to beat the closing number. Not for middles (and I'm not knocking the practice in the least), but just to have continuous +EV wagers every Saturday. (Or Thursday. And every now and then maybe Friday and Tuesday).


My question for gen pop....do you:

1. Just not give a shit about line movement. You like your plays and that's all that matters.

2. Lay off if you've already missed the best number, because you refuse to take anything less than the absolute best of it.

3. Feel like as long as you beat the close, you're getting the better of it and that's good enough for you.


I'm definitely #3. Thoughts?
Click to expand...


These type of statements make me laugh. Its as if line movement gives you the the correct side. I understand that betting the opener against the closer wins at a much higher % but you have to remember that the closing # can be the best #.
 
Mammon

Mammon

EOG Master
Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

I think this is most over rated in mlb. You need the winner not the best number in Mlb!!!
 
trytrytry

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

tempting for me to use that popcorn eating guy for the first time ever in this thread.....tempting..
 
pvcpipe

pvcpipe

EOG Master
Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

InvstmntWagring said:
These type of statements make me laugh. Its as if line movement gives you the the correct side. I understand that betting the opener against the closer wins at a much higher % but you have to remember that the closing # can be the best #.
Click to expand...

So I'm like a clown? I fucking amuse you? View attachment 6957
 
wantitall4moi

wantitall4moi

2
Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

Timely Hero said:
At least you finally got caught up in your lie - last time you brought this up you said you had info back to 2005 in every sport.

Also, for all this data you speak of you've never posted one piece of it.. In fact, you've posted numbers and said "this is just a guess, not from my data."
Click to expand...


pretty sure I said at least back that far. So if I have it back to 2003 then I obviously have it back to 2005. logic fails you. I actually have some generic stuff all the way back to 1980s. just not as specific. but enough to do a few parameters of searches, but with only one closing number. With no openers or moves to look at. but pre 1994 it doesnt matter anyway. And I predict after this year it will change again, at least with totals until they figure out how the move on the kick off will change things. The last time they did it back in 1993, we dont have enough free standing results to look at because the next year they added the 2 point conversion and that changed things overall. So in back to back years the the stuff going forward was changed greatly from the past results.

And yes why would I post shit for free that I had to pay someone to make the tool I use to get it? Again logic fails you. but if they are guesses theyre going to be right in line with percentages for the most part. I usually make up sample size.

As for your third fail, you dont know before hand which best line is the winner. If a game has extremes of -120 and +130, on a baseball game both cant win. so you scalp them, Or buy back. Some might think a move like that makes the favorite the better play, but not from what I have ever seen.

as for spread extremes, sometimes both win, not enough to be profitable on the blind, but in some sports in some subsets they are. So a game with a total of 43 and a move to 46. no guarantee that 43 is right for the over or 46 is right for the under, you take both (hopefully at reduced juice) and hope. worst case you lose a few pennies, better case you get a side, best case you get a middle. But many guys would claim getting over 43 every time would make you a winner long term. nothing that shows that either.
 
wantitall4moi

wantitall4moi

2
Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

Mammon said:
I think this is most over rated in mlb. You need the winner not the best number in Mlb!!!
Click to expand...

actually that is so wrong....

If you and I bet the same 500 bets over the season for the same amount of money and I get 3 or 4 cents better than you every game who is going to make more money? Best number is MOST important with a ML as opposed to a spread.

If you lose enough versus the spread to break you or make you a loser as opposed to a winner then you either have really bad luck or shouldnt be picking one side of a game in the first place.
 
Mammon

Mammon

EOG Master
Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

wantitall4moi said:
actually that is so wrong....

If you and I bet the same 500 bets over the season for the same amount of money and I get 3 or 4 cents better than you every game who is going to make more money? Best number is MOST important with a ML as opposed to a spread.

If you lose enough versus the spread to break you or make you a loser as opposed to a winner then you either have really bad luck or shouldnt be picking one side of a game in the first place.
Click to expand...


The difference is you and I would never bet the same games....
 
V

vtheman

2
Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

At the end of the day, there's one winner, one loser, just pick the right side damnit.
 
IrishTim

IrishTim

EOG Dedicated
Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

wantitall4moi said:
best number beats closers, but there will be many here who will try to say beating closers is the only thing that matters, despite all the data I have that says otherwise. Which is roughly from 2000 til last year in the NFL, 2003 to last year in the NBA, 2003 to last year in NCAA hoops and football, and 2001 til last year in MLB.
Click to expand...

lol your data demonstrated that beating the closer increased your win rate

I'm mostly #3 with some #2 in there as well
 
Mammon

Mammon

EOG Master
Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

If you happen to get a good number, great! But you need to capp MLB to find winners not value.
 
Flamingo kid

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

I would say #1 has some merit because at the end of the day, if you're a winning player and you have deduced that your line is +ev, i think that's all that matters.

Winning is what matters, ask Charlie Sheen.
 
B

buffettgambler

EOG Veteran
Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

IrishTim said:
lol your data demonstrated that beating the closer increased your win rate

I'm mostly #3 with some #2 in there as well
Click to expand...

Hypothetical question
Current Market price
Rangers -110/ Red Sox +100
Yankees -110/ Tigers +100

Opening line
Rangers -120/ Red Sox +110
Yankees -105/ Tigers -105

You just modeled both games and have an implied win probability of 53.48% for both the Red Sox and Tigers. Are you betting more, the same, or less on the Red Sox compared to the Tigers?
 
wantitall4moi

wantitall4moi

2
Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

IrishTim said:
lol your data demonstrated that beating the closer increased your win rate

I'm mostly #3 with some #2 in there as well
Click to expand...

the closer isnt always the best number, a lot of people wait and buy back right before game time. I know you know how much movement happens in games. Hell just go look up some histories on an Hawaii home game sometimes and see the moves. That game (any hawaii home game) historically is a great example because it is generally the last game on Saturday and people are either buried and trying to get back or winning and pushing. So in those games you'll see some pretty massive swings in the lines, especially the totals.

So you might see an opener of Hawaii -5, and see stuff all the way from Hawaii -8 to Hawaii -4. And it might close at -7, and Hawaii loses. So it opened 5, closed 7 (closer was a loser) and +8 was the best it got to for the opponent.
 
N

newport2

EOG Dedicated
Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

I just made some additions to my ignore list! 2348ji23e
 
IrishTim

IrishTim

EOG Dedicated
Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

buffettgambler said:
Hypothetical question
Current Market price
Rangers -110/ Red Sox +100
Yankees -110/ Tigers +100

Opening line
Rangers -120/ Red Sox +110
Yankees -105/ Tigers -105

You just modeled both games and have an implied win probability of 53.48% for both the Red Sox and Tigers. Are you betting more, the same, or less on the Red Sox compared to the Tigers?
Click to expand...

If the fair line is -115 and you have the opportunity to bet both teams at -110, then according to KC you should bet the same amount. But there is not a single person in the world who doesn't be sub-optimally unless you're living on food-stamps. In this scenario, I would bet the same because the 5c move is marginal and possibly just noise (depending on how mature the line is).

But to get at the spirit of your question, I would be more inclined to tread lighter on the Rangers since the market has already downgraded them a bit. Is there momentum or directional bias in the sports markets in your opinion?

newport2 said:
I just made some additions to my ignore list! 2348ji23e
Click to expand...

Heaven forbid we try to learn something or challenge our perceptions ingrained from the 1970s.
 
IrishTim

IrishTim

EOG Dedicated
Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

wantitall4moi said:
the closer isnt always the best number, a lot of people wait and buy back right before game time. I know you know how much movement happens in games. Hell just go look up some histories on an Hawaii home game sometimes and see the moves. That game (any hawaii home game) historically is a great example because it is generally the last game on Saturday and people are either buried and trying to get back or winning and pushing. So in those games you'll see some pretty massive swings in the lines, especially the totals.

So you might see an opener of Hawaii -5, and see stuff all the way from Hawaii -8 to Hawaii -4. And it might close at -7, and Hawaii loses. So it opened 5, closed 7 (closer was a loser) and +8 was the best it got to for the opponent.
Click to expand...

I believe I'm on record somewhere at EOG saying the most efficient line is probably 20 minutes before post because of buy-back, though I would reject your theory that Hawaii lines are more volatile because of late night chasing. Generally the people chasing on these games aren't the market movers anyway.

And please spare me the "Oh there might be some rich lawyer who is just a whale and bets a ton of money that moves the market" because at 50k+ a pop at Pinny, the guys shaping the lines aren't prone to doubling down on the Saturday night Hawaii game.
 
Joboarder

Joboarder

EOG Veteran
Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

IrishTim said:
I believe I'm on record somewhere at EOG saying the most efficient line is probably 20 minutes before post because of buy-back, though I would reject your theory that Hawaii lines are more volatile because of late night chasing. Generally the people chasing on these games aren't the market movers anyway.

And please spare me the "Oh there might be some rich lawyer who is just a whale and bets a ton of money that moves the market" because at 50k+ a pop at Pinny, the guys shaping the lines aren't prone to doubling down on the Saturday night Hawaii game.
Click to expand...

I believe you are on record for being a giant DICK
 
B

buffettgambler

EOG Veteran
Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

IrishTim said:
If the fair line is -115 and you have the opportunity to bet both teams at -110, then according to KC you should bet the same amount. But there is not a single person in the world who doesn't be sub-optimally unless you're living on food-stamps. In this scenario, I would bet the same because the 5c move is marginal and possibly just noise (depending on how mature the line is).

But to get at the spirit of your question, I would be more inclined to tread lighter on the Rangers since the market has already downgraded them a bit. Is there momentum or directional bias in the sports markets in your opinion?
Click to expand...
From what I notice in baseball, I don't see any momentum that may exist in line movements creating overthrows (outside of noise range). Smaller sport markets are more susceptible of momentum, and you probably follow/have more information on that than I. There may be a non-directional bias going on in CFB/NFL midweek. I would venture to say that line movement analysis in sports is not as 'sexy' as some of these forum 'chartist' claim.
 
Timely Hero

Timely Hero

Jacoby Blows
Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

Joboarder said:
I believe you are on record for being a giant DICK
Click to expand...

Who are you? Usually when someone is smarter than you, they come off as being dickish because you don't get it...

Wantit, why are you backing off everything you said in the thread earlier? Your data is fake, ftr.
 
H

High Times

EOG Master
Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

Joboarder said:
I believe you are on record for being a giant DICK
Click to expand...

Yes I love his constant remarks towards others like

"Heaven forbid we try to learn something or challenge our perceptions ingrained from the 1970s."

TIMMAAY

What is different about betting sports today that wasn't there 30 years ago?

In fact you and your way of gambling "Following the moves" was much easier back then as it took awhile for every bookmaker to get the moves and were sitting ducks for "Bettors like you"

But everyone knows everything about that type of gambler so what's you point here?
 
cassiusclay

cassiusclay

EOG Master
Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

this shit is funny

there is no perfect answer

if there were everyone here would be a winning gambler

there are different approaches or styles when it comes to gambling

math guys are not wrong

steam chasers are not wrong

no-one is wrong

at the end of the day it's how well you managed your money and if you are on the plus side

how you get there does not matter

god bless the math guys

god bless the martingale guys

god bless the average guy who uses his gut

put a math guy against a handicapper and i don't think either has an advantage

now show me a math/handicapper and you might have a winner

can anyone name one?
 
H

High Times

EOG Master
Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

cassiusclay said:
this shit is funny

there is no perfect answer

if there were everyone here would be a winning gambler

there are different approaches or styles when it comes to gambling

math guys are not wrong

steam chasers are not wrong

no-one is wrong

at the end of the day it's how well you managed your money and if you are on the plus side

how you get there does not matter

god bless the math guys

god bless the martingale guys

god bless the average guy who uses his gut

put a math guy against a handicapper and i don't think either has an advantage

now show me a math/handicapper and you might have a winner

can anyone name one?
Click to expand...


nice post

:thumbsup
 
H

High Times

EOG Master
Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

IrishTim said:
I believe I'm on record somewhere at EOG saying the most efficient line is probably 20 minutes before post because of buy-back, though I would reject your theory that Hawaii lines are more volatile because of late night chasing. Generally the people chasing on these games aren't the market movers anyway.

And please spare me the "Oh there might be some rich lawyer who is just a whale and bets a ton of money that moves the market" because at 50k+ a pop at Pinny, the guys shaping the lines aren't prone to doubling down on the Saturday night Hawaii game.
Click to expand...

Dude you really need to stop!

I have seen many, many Hawaii games move a point to a point and a half MORE late at night on a Saturday night and it all came from square action.

And the other point you made is that there is NO SPECIAL TIME to make your buybacks. Oh really? Most of my buy backs come right at post and I have been doing this for 25 years, but you would know better. How would you know? In fact I have seen many Las Vegas Books wait until the last second to make the lines/odds higher/lower right at post to get buy back.

You have to know YOUR OUTS (books) and get a feel as to what each book does and doesn't do. They all book differently. Son.

And the last thing you wrote?

What do you mean?

Pinny will move just as fast as anybody else! Dumb statement.
 
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