Re: Good advice from Alan Boston
In The Odds: One Season, Three Gamblers and the Death of their Las Vegas, Alan Boston frequently bemoans sharps taking out college basketball numbers before he can bet them at various sportsbooks around Las Vegas. To say that beating the closer doesn't matter is foolhardy, even from him.
I like Boston and give him respect for his acumen but his edge has certainly eroded over the years as the market became more sophisticated. I have no idea if he still has an edge although i certainly hope that he does.
it isnt that simple. In NCAA hoops moves mean a lot more, for one, half the games are fixed or with kids or coaches on the take. So they arent concerned about covering every number, just the one theyre supposed to. They might, but no guarantee.
Also scoring in NCAA hoops is a lot different, a point there means a lot more than a point in the NFL or even NCAA foots. So if you like a team -4 and they suddenly go to -7 then what? Theyre still the best team, they could win by 4,5,6,7 or they could win by 12. So picking the winner is still paramount but you cant just give that many points away. Nor can you take +7 because that would just be dumb. Although many so called sharps think it is the 'right' thing to do.
MOST of the time if your opinion is good youre going to win regardless. BUT when the difference between being profitable and being a loser is so thin you have to weigh the pros and cons. Much easier to like a team -4.5 in NFL and still bet them at -6 than it is to take an NCAA hoops team under the same spread criteria. Although I suspect on that one the difference between a winner and a loser or a push are minimal.
NCAA hoops by far the most volatile sports in terms of spread to win ratio. Not even close. Why? Because like I said many many games are influenced in one form or another. How many teams have been caught? How many guys admitted to it after they were done? Use the 20% rule, whatever is known is about 20% of reality. 1 in 5 admit it, 1 in 5 get caught.
