Week 1- Atl and Chi

Week 2- Oak

Week 3- Mia

This will change the way I look at the monsters for sure...I'm going to go back and look at if all overs were played next.

- Thread starter crazytrain
- Start date

Week 1- Atl and Chi

Week 2- Oak

Week 3- Mia

This will change the way I look at the monsters for sure...I'm going to go back and look at if all overs were played next.

And when you consider that Week #2 Pit/Cle never would have been put in a Monster with the weather situation, it's pretty strong. Generally the only way I'll ever tease a total is with an Over in a monster (see my card from last week where I cashed just such a play), rarely in a 10 pointer, and never for any less points.

And when you consider that Week #2 Pit/Cle never would have been put in a Monster with the weather situation, it's pretty strong. Generally the only way I'll ever tease a total is with an Over in a monster (see my card from last week where I cashed just such a play), rarely in a 10 pointer, and never for any less points.

I know you have an impressive data base, Cruncher. Are you saying that playing overs in Monster Teasers is a positive outcome? Or are you handicapping the games and using games you already have ticketed to go over?

Thanks Cruncher, I would also think that just as teasers do better after the first few weeks, the success rate would increase on monsters as the lines get tighter later in the season.

thanks, crazy. Yeah, like I said, there's usually a screaming Over or two, but less frequently a dead on the operating table Under. Against my own advice, my only monster of the week included Unders on the SNF/MNF games. It didn't look good the way the scoring took off in the Sunday night game, and started to look dicey the way the second half started going last night, but both hung on to cash. This week was pretty sick for scoring, though, lol.

I just ran some stats for the 14 point monster teasers in College and 12 point in the NFL so far this year here are the cover rates I got.

College

Favs : 83.3%

Dogs : 77.56%

Overs : 80.69%

Unders : 80.60%

Overall : 80.47%

NFL

Favs : 91.53%

Dogs : 76.27%

Overs : 93.33%

Unders : 77.58%

Overall : 84.75%

It would be interesting to see this with data from previous years as well. But so far this year calculating probabilities there actually is some value in playing the monster teaser on NFL overs and favorites.

I know at Bet Jam a 4 teamer odds are 3:2. So you have to hit 60% of them to break even. The probablity of hitting 4 overs in the NFL right now is 68.47% and on Favorites is 72%. The probablities in college are all under 50% so they are a bad play statistically. It also looks like the overall winning percentage is going up in the NFL as the weeks go on.

5Dimes has pretty good odds on their 4 teamers with a wide range of points options. I really like the monsters getting 12 points at even juice. It's not rocket science to figure out whether the extra point you get on a 13 pointer is worth the 20 cents in juice or not -- well, in terms of the plays you're looking at anyway. With sides, if a 12 point teaser gets you at +14.5 or +17.5 or a fav down to -1.5 or something between 0 and 2.5, you really don't need to be paying the juice to get your side to +15.5 or +18.5, because those numbers are in the deadzone in terms of typical scoring/margins of victory. If you've seen my card this week, I have 2 12 point monsters that make sense, and 1 13 pointer.

Yeah, that 4th and one goal line stand sunk the MIA/SD monster Over, unfortunately, giving me a split on the 12 pointers yesterday 1-1, but with no juice no harm done. Just need Over 33 tonight to cash a 13 pointer.