Gyno...Here's some stats for the Monsters

#1
I went back and looked at if the monster teasers were played using the 13 point system playing favs only and here are the results. Listed are the dogs that would have ruined it....Not many of them.

Week 1- Atl and Chi
Week 2- Oak
Week 3- Mia
This will change the way I look at the monsters for sure...I'm going to go back and look at if all overs were played next.
 
#2
Re: Gyno...Here's some stats for the Monsters

If all plays were overs, here's who would have ruined these

Week 1- Was/NYG KC/NE
Week 2- Pit/Cle
Week 3- Pit/Phi

Food for thought!12io4j2w90
 
#3
Re: Gyno...Here's some stats for the Monsters

And when you consider that Week #2 Pit/Cle never would have been put in a Monster with the weather situation, it's pretty strong. Generally the only way I'll ever tease a total is with an Over in a monster (see my card from last week where I cashed just such a play), rarely in a 10 pointer, and never for any less points.
 

munson15

I want winners...
#4
Re: Gyno...Here's some stats for the Monsters

And when you consider that Week #2 Pit/Cle never would have been put in a Monster with the weather situation, it's pretty strong. Generally the only way I'll ever tease a total is with an Over in a monster (see my card from last week where I cashed just such a play), rarely in a 10 pointer, and never for any less points.
I know you have an impressive data base, Cruncher. Are you saying that playing overs in Monster Teasers is a positive outcome? Or are you handicapping the games and using games you already have ticketed to go over?
 
#7
Re: Gyno...Here's some stats for the Monsters

I know you have an impressive data base, Cruncher. Are you saying that playing overs in Monster Teasers is a positive outcome? Or are you handicapping the games and using games you already have ticketed to go over?
Good question, but sadly I currently don't have my spreadsheet set up to analysis historical data for such things. For next season there's a good chance that I will as I now have access to historical data. In fact, I may, with very little work, be able to come up with a historical percentage now. That very little work would be added onto the pile of very large amount of work, unfortunately, so it isn't a top priority right now, lol. I would assume that the books have the historical data and price their teasers accordingly, but there may be some discrepancy between the value of Overs and Unders in the various teasers. I, for one, will never tease an Under. It seems like every week there are one or two games (more this season!) that just blow completely past the number, while the same can't be said for one or two games turning into very low scoring affairs (barring extreme weather). It would be interesting to see what the cover rates are for favs/dogs and Overs/Unders for the various teasers historically. I'm sure someone out there has the data, including a breakdown by spreads, but whether that someone frequents this forum and is willing to share, I don't know, lol. So yes, I do just bet them based on the value I see in my lines, which ultimately is probably more important than knowing the historical data.
 

munson15

I want winners...
#8
Re: Gyno...Here's some stats for the Monsters

Thanks Cruncher, I would also think that just as teasers do better after the first few weeks, the success rate would increase on monsters as the lines get tighter later in the season.
 
#9
Re: Gyno...Here's some stats for the Monsters

Thanks Cruncher, I would also think that just as teasers do better after the first few weeks, the success rate would increase on monsters as the lines get tighter later in the season.
That's conventional wisdom, yes, and you'd have to believe it to be true.
 
#10
Re: Gyno...Here's some stats for the Monsters

Thanks Cruncher, I would also think that just as teasers do better after the first few weeks, the success rate would increase on monsters as the lines get tighter later in the season.
:cheersMunson, that is a great point my friend! That's why I went back to look at this. We will see an edge as the season progresses, but there is always a spoiler out there folks! So use your better judgement on these91023i2ndw;l
 
#12
Re: Gyno...Here's some stats for the Monsters

WEEK 4....All overs covered the 13 points, two dogs this week were KC and Washington. Looks like overs is the way to go so far.
 
#13
Re: Gyno...Here's some stats for the Monsters

thanks, crazy. Yeah, like I said, there's usually a screaming Over or two, but less frequently a dead on the operating table Under. Against my own advice, my only monster of the week included Unders on the SNF/MNF games. It didn't look good the way the scoring took off in the Sunday night game, and started to look dicey the way the second half started going last night, but both hung on to cash. This week was pretty sick for scoring, though, lol.
 

tankdog23

EOG Senior Member
#14
Re: Gyno...Here's some stats for the Monsters

I just ran some stats for the 14 point monster teasers in College and 12 point in the NFL so far this year here are the cover rates I got.

College
Favs : 83.3%
Dogs : 77.56%
Overs : 80.69%
Unders : 80.60%
Overall : 80.47%
NFL
Favs : 91.53%
Dogs : 76.27%
Overs : 93.33%
Unders : 77.58%
Overall : 84.75%

It would be interesting to see this with data from previous years as well. But so far this year calculating probabilities there actually is some value in playing the monster teaser on NFL overs and favorites.
 
#15
Re: Gyno...Here's some stats for the Monsters

Thanks, tank. Does anyone remember offhand (it can be looked up I know) the break even confidence % of each selection in a monster? I think it was something in the low 90% range.
 

tankdog23

EOG Senior Member
#16
Re: Gyno...Here's some stats for the Monsters

I know at Bet Jam a 4 teamer odds are 3:2. So you have to hit 60% of them to break even. The probablity of hitting 4 overs in the NFL right now is 68.47% and on Favorites is 72%. The probablities in college are all under 50% so they are a bad play statistically. It also looks like the overall winning percentage is going up in the NFL as the weeks go on.
 

tankdog23

EOG Senior Member
#18
Re: Gyno...Here's some stats for the Monsters

With this being said what are y'alls thoughts on this NFL 12 point teaser:
Colts +9
Cards +12
Cin/Dal ov 32
Pitt/Jax ov 24

I'm also looking at
titans/Ravens ov 21.5
Washington +18
 
#19
Re: Gyno...Here's some stats for the Monsters

5Dimes has pretty good odds on their 4 teamers with a wide range of points options. I really like the monsters getting 12 points at even juice. It's not rocket science to figure out whether the extra point you get on a 13 pointer is worth the 20 cents in juice or not -- well, in terms of the plays you're looking at anyway. With sides, if a 12 point teaser gets you at +14.5 or +17.5 or a fav down to -1.5 or something between 0 and 2.5, you really don't need to be paying the juice to get your side to +15.5 or +18.5, because those numbers are in the deadzone in terms of typical scoring/margins of victory. If you've seen my card this week, I have 2 12 point monsters that make sense, and 1 13 pointer.
 

tankdog23

EOG Senior Member
#20
Re: Gyno...Here's some stats for the Monsters

Hmm even juice on the 4 teamers, that's much better than the -150 at Bet Jam, i may need to switch books but I really love the customer service at BetJam.
 
#22
Re: Gyno...Here's some stats for the Monsters

Yeah, that 4th and one goal line stand sunk the MIA/SD monster Over, unfortunately, giving me a split on the 12 pointers yesterday 1-1, but with no juice no harm done. Just need Over 33 tonight to cash a 13 pointer.
 
#23
Re: Gyno...Here's some stats for the Monsters

Yeah, that 4th and one goal line stand sunk the MIA/SD monster Over, unfortunately, giving me a split on the 12 pointers yesterday 1-1, but with no juice no harm done. Just need Over 33 tonight to cash a 13 pointer.
GL Cruncher.....that should be easy money!:cheers
 
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