Harris now the favorite in the betting market

M

MrTop

EOG Master
Heisenberg said:
Polymatket election odds have been proven to be bogus. Elon got his buddy to create the market and then 3 other oligarchs put money in to manipulate the narrative. It’s billionaires wagering their OWN money to manufacture a story of false hope and something to attempt to use as evidence of voter fraud.
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pinny is -180...

polymarket odds could be off but it is on the same side as DraftKings and pinny
 
mr merlin

mr merlin

EOG Master
Heisenberg said:
What another poll? No it doesn’t fucking matter. People here are exhausted with Trump and hate Kari Lake. Women are crushing the early voting here. Even my friends here who are voting for Trump don’t think he wins the state.

Sorry for the truth my friend
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Ok, that's good thanks, but that's not a poll that's the actual numbers of voters who have voted, we dont know how they voted but far more republicans have voted than D's - and the mix is way worse when compared with last time.

You seem very naive about stuff heisi, you aren;t aware of this, you didn't know you can track cell phone numbers, etc like they did at that kamala rally. What gives?
 
mr merlin

mr merlin

EOG Master
MrTop said:
pinny is -180...

polymarket odds could be off but it is on the same side as DraftKings and pinny
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yesterday CNN put out a couple polls that looked good for harris in MI and WI, consequently today nate silver moved his predict model to reflect that, that's why these odds are shifting.

What's happening is harris needs the illusion of momentum so they can drive turnout on tuesday, dem turnout is lagging badly so far, CNN knew when they put out their fake poll that Silver would do that, this is all a mirage.
 
Heisenberg

Heisenberg

2
mr merlin said:
yesterday CNN put out a couple polls that looked good for harris in MI and WI, consequently today nate silver moved his predict model to reflect that, that's why these odds are shifting.

What's happening is harris needs the illusion of momentum so they can drive turnout on tuesday, dem turnout is lagging badly so far, CNN knew when they put out their fake poll that Silver would do that, this is all a mirage.
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You seem confident Merlin. Want to increase our wager?
 
Heisenberg

Heisenberg

2
mr merlin said:
Ok, that's good thanks, but that's not a poll that's the actual numbers of voters who have voted, we dont know how they voted but far more republicans have voted than D's - and the mix is way worse when compared with last time.

You seem very naive about stuff heisi, you aren;t aware of this, you didn't know you can track cell phone numbers, etc like they did at that kamala rally. What gives?
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Of course it’s NOT A POLL! You don’t think I realize actual votes matter more than a survey?

55/45 split? TRUMP IS FUCKED! Yeah I’m sure women are getting out early to vote in droves motivated by broadening limitations on women’s rights. 🤣
 
mr merlin

mr merlin

EOG Master
Heisenberg said:
Of course it’s NOT A POLL! You don’t think I realize actual votes matter more than a survey?

55/45 split? TRUMP IS FUCKED! Yeah I’m sure women are getting out to vote motivated by broadening limitations on women’s rights. 🤣
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Huh, what are you referring to with the 55/45 thing? Is that women? Do you really think that R women are flooding the early vote to vote against trump but D women are not?

R early turnout is way up, D turnout is down, that's a bad sign.
 
mr merlin

mr merlin

EOG Master
TobyTyler said:
There is a coach at Millersville I have known a while... We spoke week or two again he told me Amish don't vote... Very small percentage
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Correct, historically almost none, apparently that's changing, I understand in PA they are hassling the amish over stuff like unpastuerized milk, forcing them to throw it out, etc.

I dont think there will be 80K but if it's 10-20 that could make a difference. Lots of menonites in PA too, they're far more liberal.
 
Heisenberg

Heisenberg

2
TobyTyler said:
There is a coach at Millersville I have known a while... We spoke week or two again he told me Amish don't vote... Very small percentage
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The Amish are coming out in waves like we’ve never seen before. They’re absolutely taking over the polls. I’ve heard some Amish are voting as many as 25 times.

We’ve never seen cheating at this level before
 
H

homie1975

EOG Veteran
either side feeling confidence right now would be foolish.

this is an absolute toss up.

it is quite simple: if women and minorities turn out in AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA and WI then Harris will win enough of the swings to get to 270.

if the women and minorities do Not turn out enough, then Trump will win.

it is as simple and unpredictable as this.

so both sides: do not be confident because if you are you truly do not understand the unpredictable dynamics of the next 5 days.
 
mr merlin

mr merlin

EOG Master
homie1975 said:
either side feeling confidence right now would be foolish.

this is an absolute toss up.

it is quite simple: if women and minorities turn out in AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA and WI then Harris will win enough of the swings to get to 270.

if the women and minorities do Not turn out enough, then Trump will win.

it is as simple and unpredictable as this.

so both sides: do not be confident because if you are you truly do not understand the unpredictable dynamics of the next 5 days.
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This.

1730496053324.png
 
H

homie1975

EOG Veteran
mr merlin said:
This.

View attachment 7472354
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barely over two decades since 9-11 and could you imagine a group of muslims in a state (MI) deciding a US presidential election?

yeah, neither can i.

this take i just made is for social media but i would get canceled even though i am not a celebrity or known poster so i cannot share it on social media accounts.

thank God i can share it here.
 
mr merlin

mr merlin

EOG Master
homie1975 said:
barely over two decades since 9-11 and could you imagine a group of muslims in a state (MI) deciding a US presidential election?

yeah, neither can i.

this take i just made is for social media but i would get canceled even though i am not a celebrity or known poster so i cannot share it on social media accounts.

thank God i can share it here.
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I agree it is ironic, no one had this on our bingo card a few years back for sure.
 
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