How can I use the "Monty Hall Problem" to my advantage and win millions?
- Thread starter Sleepy
- Start date
BrianLaverty
Banned
Re: How can I use the "Monty Hall Problem" to my advantage and win millions?
you are an idiot.
you are an idiot.
Sleepy
EOG Master
Re: How can I use the "Monty Hall Problem" to my advantage and win millions?
At least when I make a big bet I wait until all shops have numbers up and then simulatiously max bet accross screen instead of announcing to world great bets when only one shop has numbers up.
At least when I make a big bet I wait until all shops have numbers up and then simulatiously max bet accross screen instead of announcing to world great bets when only one shop has numbers up.
Teddy kgb
Banned
Re: How can I use the "Monty Hall Problem" to my advantage and win millions?
Bottom line is when one door is opened it leaves two doors and that means your chances are 50/50
You can't put the toothpaste back in the tube, the door was opened and now there are two, the fact you stated with three is meaningless...
Its 50/50 and that is a Fact
Bottom line is when one door is opened it leaves two doors and that means your chances are 50/50
You can't put the toothpaste back in the tube, the door was opened and now there are two, the fact you stated with three is meaningless...
Its 50/50 and that is a Fact
hels
EOG Dedicated
Re: How can I use the "Monty Hall Problem" to my advantage and win millions?
Please tell me you are trolling and not fully retarded. I learned about this situation a long time ago and the best example is if you have 100 doors. You choose door number 1. I open up doors 2-99 (because I know the prize is not in those doors). You have the choice between door 1 and door 100. What do you pick?
Please tell me you are trolling and not fully retarded. I learned about this situation a long time ago and the best example is if you have 100 doors. You choose door number 1. I open up doors 2-99 (because I know the prize is not in those doors). You have the choice between door 1 and door 100. What do you pick?
Teddy kgb
Banned
Re: How can I use the "Monty Hall Problem" to my advantage and win millions?
How does anything change except for me feeling better about my selection? It's 50/50 because there are Two doors left and I have one...nothing else matters except for the final door to e opened and if I have one of the two then I have a 50/50 chance and what happened before that has no bearing
How does anything change except for me feeling better about my selection? It's 50/50 because there are Two doors left and I have one...nothing else matters except for the final door to e opened and if I have one of the two then I have a 50/50 chance and what happened before that has no bearing
hels
EOG Dedicated
Re: How can I use the "Monty Hall Problem" to my advantage and win millions?
Teddy there is 100 doors in my example. That means you have 1/100 or 1% chance of choosing the correct door. That means there is a 99% chance you did not pick the correct door and the person who opens 98 knows those 98 are empty and which one is correct.
In the Teddy challenge there are only 2 doors to begin with. That means there is a 50% chance of picking the correct door originally.
Teddy there is 100 doors in my example. That means you have 1/100 or 1% chance of choosing the correct door. That means there is a 99% chance you did not pick the correct door and the person who opens 98 knows those 98 are empty and which one is correct.
In the Teddy challenge there are only 2 doors to begin with. That means there is a 50% chance of picking the correct door originally.
Teddy kgb
Banned
Re: How can I use the "Monty Hall Problem" to my advantage and win millions?
Hels, same as the coin flipping challenge...if I flipped 98 times and I have two flips left and you picked heads before the start of the 100 flip are you now going to choose tails? Why would you the 98 flips meant nothing only the last two remain, same as the 98 doors opened before it came down to two, only the two matter and that makes it a 50/50 on any planet..
Hels, same as the coin flipping challenge...if I flipped 98 times and I have two flips left and you picked heads before the start of the 100 flip are you now going to choose tails? Why would you the 98 flips meant nothing only the last two remain, same as the 98 doors opened before it came down to two, only the two matter and that makes it a 50/50 on any planet..
Re: How can I use the "Monty Hall Problem" to my advantage and win millions?
I love Kelly Kapowski Hels nice avatar.
:cheers
I love Kelly Kapowski Hels nice avatar.
:cheers
Teddy kgb
Banned
Re: How can I use the "Monty Hall Problem" to my advantage and win millions?
Well then go jerk off in the corner douchebag because we are having a discussion here...fvcking idiot
Well then go jerk off in the corner douchebag because we are having a discussion here...fvcking idiot
hels
EOG Dedicated
Re: How can I use the "Monty Hall Problem" to my advantage and win millions?
Thanks man, I posted it in one of the threads and asked if someone could downsize it to become an avatar. One of the mods must have done so because when I was sober enough to use the computer again my avatar was miraculously better. Your girl is a cutie, didn't want to derail the other thread.
Teddy, what do you think of hels's problem with 100 doors?
Thanks man, I posted it in one of the threads and asked if someone could downsize it to become an avatar. One of the mods must have done so because when I was sober enough to use the computer again my avatar was miraculously better. Your girl is a cutie, didn't want to derail the other thread.
Teddy, what do you think of hels's problem with 100 doors?
Re: How can I use the "Monty Hall Problem" to my advantage and win millions?
craterface, I wasn't talking to you. FWIW I liked Lisa Turtle too.
craterface, I wasn't talking to you. FWIW I liked Lisa Turtle too.
Teddy kgb
Banned
Re: How can I use the "Monty Hall Problem" to my advantage and win millions?
Everyone likes Black chicks that act White because we all think we can get with them.....
Everyone likes Black chicks that act White because we all think we can get with them.....
hels
EOG Dedicated
Re: How can I use the "Monty Hall Problem" to my advantage and win millions?
Definitely crushed on Lisa as well. Remember when they brought Tori in? Her image killed her attractive level and I could never understand why Zack and AC hit on her so hard. Can't believe the show first aired 24 years ago
Definitely crushed on Lisa as well. Remember when they brought Tori in? Her image killed her attractive level and I could never understand why Zack and AC hit on her so hard. Can't believe the show first aired 24 years ago
hels
EOG Dedicated
Re: How can I use the "Monty Hall Problem" to my advantage and win millions?
Agree, they have to spread their legs or open their mouth at every chance. Tori acted like she wore a tutu but dressed like everyone should fear her.
Agree, they have to spread their legs or open their mouth at every chance. Tori acted like she wore a tutu but dressed like everyone should fear her.
Re: How can I use the "Monty Hall Problem" to my advantage and win millions?
No surprise a cretin like Teddy can't figure this out when the answer and explanation are all over the internet, but then again he can't figure out blackjack basic strategy either. The reason it's not 50/50 is because the door Monty opens isn't random. He never opens a door to say "Hey, there's your prize! You didn't pick it, you lose!" The door he opens is always a non-winning door.
No surprise a cretin like Teddy can't figure this out when the answer and explanation are all over the internet, but then again he can't figure out blackjack basic strategy either. The reason it's not 50/50 is because the door Monty opens isn't random. He never opens a door to say "Hey, there's your prize! You didn't pick it, you lose!" The door he opens is always a non-winning door.
hels
EOG Dedicated
Re: How can I use the "Monty Hall Problem" to my advantage and win millions?
No kidding eh, the girls who have the toughest attitudes are the easiest to bed. TV needs to step it up with tough look. Sons of Anarchy does it right
No kidding eh, the girls who have the toughest attitudes are the easiest to bed. TV needs to step it up with tough look. Sons of Anarchy does it right
Re: How can I use the "Monty Hall Problem" to my advantage and win millions?
The only way to actually to devise a "correct" strategy is to KNOW THE HOST STRATEGY. Most statements of this annoying 'problem' are way incomplete. Since there are multiple host strategies, the incomplete version just gives you an opportunity to sniff out an imbecile like Teddy.
http://www.math.uah.edu/stat/games/MontyHall.html
I didn't see 21. Did the movie treat the problem correctly?
The only way to actually to devise a "correct" strategy is to KNOW THE HOST STRATEGY. Most statements of this annoying 'problem' are way incomplete. Since there are multiple host strategies, the incomplete version just gives you an opportunity to sniff out an imbecile like Teddy.
http://www.math.uah.edu/stat/games/MontyHall.html
I didn't see 21. Did the movie treat the problem correctly?
Re: How can I use the "Monty Hall Problem" to my advantage and win millions?
I agree. I'm a surprised you know who the character's are. With the pictures you have posted of yourself in forumville I thought you were way too old to know. I'm happy to hear you weren't crushing on AC Slater.
:cheers
I agree. I'm a surprised you know who the character's are. With the pictures you have posted of yourself in forumville I thought you were way too old to know. I'm happy to hear you weren't crushing on AC Slater.
:cheers
Doug
2
Re: How can I use the "Monty Hall Problem" to my advantage and win millions?
Teddy : It took me quite awhile to grasp this concept as well
Think of it this way
you have door #1 of 3 and therefore a 33.33 % chance of being right
now when Door #2 is opened to reveal a booby prize, you have additional information and you still have your 1 in 3 chance with door #1, therefore door #3 will win 66.66 % of the time since you now know #2 is a bust.....It's kind of like getting two doors instead of one.
I don't know how to profit from this other than switching given the opportunity if you get on the gameshow.
:scooter
Teddy : It took me quite awhile to grasp this concept as well
Think of it this way
you have door #1 of 3 and therefore a 33.33 % chance of being right
now when Door #2 is opened to reveal a booby prize, you have additional information and you still have your 1 in 3 chance with door #1, therefore door #3 will win 66.66 % of the time since you now know #2 is a bust.....It's kind of like getting two doors instead of one.
I don't know how to profit from this other than switching given the opportunity if you get on the gameshow.
:scooter
Doug
2
Re: How can I use the "Monty Hall Problem" to my advantage and win millions?
for Teddy....
[h=2]Three friends check into a motel for the night and the clerk tells them the bill is $30, payable in advance. So, they each pay the clerk $10 and go to their room. A few minutes later, the clerk realizes he has made an error and overcharged the trio by $5. He asks the bellhop to return $5 to the 3 friends who had just checked in. The bellhop sees this as an opportunity to make $2 as he reasons that the three friends would have a tough time dividing $5 evenly among them; so he decides to tell them that the clerk made a mistake of only $3, giving a dollar back to each of the friends. He pockets the leftover $2 and goes home for the day! Now, each of the three friends gets a dollar back, thus they each paid $9 for the room which is a total of $27 for the night. We know the bellhop pocketed $2 and adding that to the $27, you get $29, not $30 which was originally spent. Where did the other dollar go????[/h]
for Teddy....
[h=2]Three friends check into a motel for the night and the clerk tells them the bill is $30, payable in advance. So, they each pay the clerk $10 and go to their room. A few minutes later, the clerk realizes he has made an error and overcharged the trio by $5. He asks the bellhop to return $5 to the 3 friends who had just checked in. The bellhop sees this as an opportunity to make $2 as he reasons that the three friends would have a tough time dividing $5 evenly among them; so he decides to tell them that the clerk made a mistake of only $3, giving a dollar back to each of the friends. He pockets the leftover $2 and goes home for the day! Now, each of the three friends gets a dollar back, thus they each paid $9 for the room which is a total of $27 for the night. We know the bellhop pocketed $2 and adding that to the $27, you get $29, not $30 which was originally spent. Where did the other dollar go????[/h]
:scooter
Teddy kgb
Banned
Re: How can I use the "Monty Hall Problem" to my advantage and win millions?
How is it different if you walk up to the 3 doors and just before you pick they say Stop!!! Before you pick we are going to remove one door....and they remove door #1 and you shrug and say nbd I was going to pick #3 anyway...
In that case you have a 50/50 chance so why wouldn't you have a 50/50 here?
How is it different if you walk up to the 3 doors and just before you pick they say Stop!!! Before you pick we are going to remove one door....and they remove door #1 and you shrug and say nbd I was going to pick #3 anyway...
In that case you have a 50/50 chance so why wouldn't you have a 50/50 here?
Teddy kgb
Banned
Re: How can I use the "Monty Hall Problem" to my advantage and win millions?
I know this one....didn't re-read as I don't want to rack my brain remembering what it was..
I know this one....didn't re-read as I don't want to rack my brain remembering what it was..
Re: How can I use the "Monty Hall Problem" to my advantage and win millions?
You've already had this explained to you about 5 times, fucktard, and there are a ton of explanations on the web. The door that Monty shows is chosen AFTER you pick the door. You pick a door. Monty shows you a door with a goat behind it. He asks if you want to switch. He didn't randomly show you a door with a goat behind it. He deliberately showed you a door with a goat.
He doesn't just open a random door and will sometimes say "Oh no, you didn't pick the car, you lose!" He always opens a door with a goat behind it.
You've already had this explained to you about 5 times, fucktard, and there are a ton of explanations on the web. The door that Monty shows is chosen AFTER you pick the door. You pick a door. Monty shows you a door with a goat behind it. He asks if you want to switch. He didn't randomly show you a door with a goat behind it. He deliberately showed you a door with a goat.
He doesn't just open a random door and will sometimes say "Oh no, you didn't pick the car, you lose!" He always opens a door with a goat behind it.
Doug
2
Re: How can I use the "Monty Hall Problem" to my advantage and win millions?
as i see it because you are only picking from two doors in this scenario and not getting added information later.
the original way is more like playing poker and you can see the hole cards of the guy next to you because he flashes them unintentialy to you..... this would alter the way you play, right ?
as i see it because you are only picking from two doors in this scenario and not getting added information later.
the original way is more like playing poker and you can see the hole cards of the guy next to you because he flashes them unintentialy to you..... this would alter the way you play, right ?
Teddy kgb
Banned
Re: How can I use the "Monty Hall Problem" to my advantage and win millions?
I don't need added information I already know that 1 of the 2 I didn't choose was Fo-Sho a goat..
I don't need added information I already know that 1 of the 2 I didn't choose was Fo-Sho a goat..
Teddy kgb
Banned
Re: How can I use the "Monty Hall Problem" to my advantage and win millions?
No not at all, I'm sure I'm wrong but I cant get my head around it and I haven't heard an argument that makes sense
No not at all, I'm sure I'm wrong but I cant get my head around it and I haven't heard an argument that makes sense
Re: How can I use the "Monty Hall Problem" to my advantage and win millions?
http://www.math.uah.edu/stat/games/MontyHall.html
That explanation makes sense. Maybe you should read it.
Doug's 'problem' is erroneously stated. They didn't pay $9 apiece. They should have paid $25/3 =$8.33.
Don't make me download 21. Did the movie discuss the host strategy issue? Or fuck it up like this thread does?
http://www.math.uah.edu/stat/games/MontyHall.html
That explanation makes sense. Maybe you should read it.
Doug's 'problem' is erroneously stated. They didn't pay $9 apiece. They should have paid $25/3 =$8.33.
Don't make me download 21. Did the movie discuss the host strategy issue? Or fuck it up like this thread does?