Re: How do you steam chase?
What kind of empirical tests did you run to test its proftability?
I have a database for bases and NFL and NCAA football, they are pretty deep in terms of wins and losses and ATS and situational results. I thikn my baseball ones will go back to the mid 70s if I open them all up. The NCAA ones go back to 1981 and the NFL one goes back to 1984. Although I dont usually go that far due to the 2 point conversion. And similar to NCAA when they introduced overtime.
But I also have a set that has openers, moves and closers. Those arent nearly as extensive. I think the NFL has full season back to 2000 and part of 1999, and the NCAA football one has back to 1997. Bases is a mish mash but at least most of the teams back to 2000. Still works in progress on a couple teams and also getting records pre 2000 is pretty difficult if not impossible.
I would say my databases are the most complete of anything out there. And maybe have been for awhile. Thats why when people spew out stats or facts I can usually counter or supprt what they are saying by doing a couple quick searches.
The problem is they still only have at most 3 different sources for lines and movement, so even though they have that they still dont have everything.
But they are basically feel good things because I never ever claim that past results are a good indicator of future expectations. Because just because Team A is 12-0 against Team B under a certain situation since say 1985, that means nothing since this is 2011 and more than likely none of the players in this game were in any of those games that made that trend/stat what it is. Nor do I think that a 3 point move that lost (both on original and obviously closer) means anything versus a game that moved 2 points and covered the spread by 1 (because of the move) IMO any one point win is luck and getting the 1 point doesnt make you a genius it just means you got lucky. What would make you a genius is not betting that game but playing the 5 point dog that won SU by 17. At least on a semi consistent basis.
Edit, I also have an NBA and NCAA basketball database but they are in the beginning stages as I find NCAA hoops to be fairly easy and I stopped betting NBA regular season in about 2004, so their priority was set back a bit.