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https://racingthinktank.com/reports/tif-special-report-racing-not-only-elite
HOW MANY RECREATIONAL CUSTOMERS
HAS RACING LOST SINCE 2003?
While recreational and middle-market horseplayers of Colonial Downs feel aggrieved by the takeout hike, heavily rebated players from outlets such as HVBS are likely playing more. The estimate that HVBS may represent between 30 and 35 percent of all wagering nationwide does not seem so far-fetched considering these rough sketches.
One upper-market player tells TIF that the higher the takeout rate is for recreational players, the lower his takeout rate is on the same tracks once accounting for rebates.
Churchill Downs Incorporated (CDI) reported Q2 2020 earnings earlier this week. Of note, handle through their TwinSpires ADW in Q2 2020 was up 21 percent from Q2 2019. While the second quarter is normally America’s highest handling quarter due to the impact of the Triple Crown races, CDI indicated the quarter saw its number of active accounts in Q2 2020 down 55.5 percent from Q2 2019.
They attribute the decline in active accounts “primarily due to the rescheduling of the 146th Kentucky Oaks and Derby.”
It is impossible to know for certain, but how many of those accounts which remained dormant in Q2 2020 absent an Oaks and Derby had been active horseplayers, not just on TwinSpires during Derby season, but through any racing wagering channel in the past?
If one-third of American wagering is through HVBS, that suggests roughly $7.3 billion in wagering in 2019 was non-HVBS betting. The WSTF report confirms the largest HVBS’ handled $1.2 billion in 2003, leaving a figure for all other handle in 2003 of roughly $14 billion. Adjusting for inflation to 2019, that translates to $19.9 billion.
What would be a reasonable estimate of the decline in inflation-adjusted non-HVBS wagering since 2003?
An astounding 63 percent.
https://racingthinktank.com/reports/tif-special-report-racing-not-only-elite
HOW MANY RECREATIONAL CUSTOMERS
HAS RACING LOST SINCE 2003?
While recreational and middle-market horseplayers of Colonial Downs feel aggrieved by the takeout hike, heavily rebated players from outlets such as HVBS are likely playing more. The estimate that HVBS may represent between 30 and 35 percent of all wagering nationwide does not seem so far-fetched considering these rough sketches.
One upper-market player tells TIF that the higher the takeout rate is for recreational players, the lower his takeout rate is on the same tracks once accounting for rebates.
Churchill Downs Incorporated (CDI) reported Q2 2020 earnings earlier this week. Of note, handle through their TwinSpires ADW in Q2 2020 was up 21 percent from Q2 2019. While the second quarter is normally America’s highest handling quarter due to the impact of the Triple Crown races, CDI indicated the quarter saw its number of active accounts in Q2 2020 down 55.5 percent from Q2 2019.
They attribute the decline in active accounts “primarily due to the rescheduling of the 146th Kentucky Oaks and Derby.”
It is impossible to know for certain, but how many of those accounts which remained dormant in Q2 2020 absent an Oaks and Derby had been active horseplayers, not just on TwinSpires during Derby season, but through any racing wagering channel in the past?
If one-third of American wagering is through HVBS, that suggests roughly $7.3 billion in wagering in 2019 was non-HVBS betting. The WSTF report confirms the largest HVBS’ handled $1.2 billion in 2003, leaving a figure for all other handle in 2003 of roughly $14 billion. Adjusting for inflation to 2019, that translates to $19.9 billion.
What would be a reasonable estimate of the decline in inflation-adjusted non-HVBS wagering since 2003?
An astounding 63 percent.
