"If It Were Up To The Doctors"

#1
"they'd close the country for a couple of years".... My take from this is, a 1% death rate is okay from this. Not sure where I stand. I think he has a point in some ways, but not completely. Then again I never filed bankruptcy 4 times. Hope he's right!
 
#3
I have to say he's actually been somewhat correct of late. I wouldn't go on too much about the cure being worse, but there is certainly truth to a worry about being overcautious. Governors and mayors are being very pessimistic and shutting stuff down because they are seen as the ones who protect the public, if people die from it they will be blamed. For the federal government, they get more of the credit/blame for the economy and less about local situation with the virus so understandably they are going to be more focused on getting the economy working again.
 
#4
Someone made a good point too that is a bit harsh to state on media without a firestorm about its insensitivity, but lets say 5,000 die from this in the next 3-4 months in the US. How many more people than normal will commit suicide over that time if there is 30% unemployment and you can't go outside to do much?
 
#6
If he can get the medical and specialists that work with numbers to say a Maximum of how many deaths in terms of those with an underlying illness will die, then he's going to be on the okay ...But if there is absolutely zero agreement (within the margin of error I think that's 4%), he doomed... I don't personally care for him the person, but am rooting 100% for him here!
 
#12
In my life time there have been 2 presidents that grew up with incredible wealth and never had a moment of knowing anything ELSE! One was Kennedy and the other Trump. One never was in a position to run for re-election. Now Trump is and as a modern is thinking carefully of his time should he lose in term of WEALTH. No one talks about it like HE DOES. Forget the words liberal or conservative, even D or R. This man idolizes WEALTH!
 
#18
Pandemic theory suggests that the same number of people will be infected if you do nothing or if you flatten the curve. All you do is spread the pandemic over a longer time frame, The "death rate" should also theoretically stay the same as well 1-2%, etc.

So no lives will be saved, UNLESS the health care system gets overloaded and people die because of inadequate care that otherwise would have lived. I'd like to see the stats of how many people that go into intensive care and are placed on ventilators live?
 
#19
Pandemic theory suggests that the same number of people will be infected if you do nothing or if you flatten the curve. All you do is spread the pandemic over a longer time frame, The "death rate" should also theoretically stay the same as well 1-2%, etc.

So no lives will be saved, UNLESS the health care system gets overloaded and people die because of inadequate care that otherwise would have lived. I'd like to see the stats of how many people that go into intensive care and are placed on ventilators live?
That info never comes out, usually something about patient confidentiality or whatever, but I agree its quite important. It appears there will be a problem in NYC, who knows where else. Even in hard hit areas outside NYC area it doesn't appear to be an issue yet.

Getting back to the topic here, the more you hear doctors the more it gets reinforced where they are coming from. I don't blame them for wanting to prevent any infections, hospitalizations or deaths, that's their job. But it has to be balanced out by the needs of society as a whole. I remember my econ prof 25 years ago said something I remember to this day. He said, "I have a nearly foolproof way of preventing traffic deaths. Just lower the speed limit to 5mph and strictly enforce it. Who's with me on this?" I couldn't put it any better than that. Follow what the doctors are saying and we're at the 5mph speed limit.
 
#20
That info never comes out, usually something about patient confidentiality or whatever, but I agree its quite important. It appears there will be a problem in NYC, who knows where else. Even in hard hit areas outside NYC area it doesn't appear to be an issue yet.

Getting back to the topic here, the more you hear doctors the more it gets reinforced where they are coming from. I don't blame them for wanting to prevent any infections, hospitalizations or deaths, that's their job. But it has to be balanced out by the needs of society as a whole. I remember my econ prof 25 years ago said something I remember to this day. He said, "I have a nearly foolproof way of preventing traffic deaths. Just lower the speed limit to 5mph and strictly enforce it. Who's with me on this?" I couldn't put it any better than that. Follow what the doctors are saying and we're at the 5mph speed limit.
Here in mn, which is partially shut down, late last week we had 8 people in the hospital with covid, yesterday they said it was 10, and we have hundreds of hospitals. Nothing is going
on, yet there is enormous pressure on the Gov to shut everything down. Why? because Wisconsin did, and Ill did.

We need to keep certain things closed for now, mass gatherings, bars/clubs, casino's, but everything else should reopen.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#25
"they'd close the country for a couple of years".... My take from this is, a 1% death rate is okay from this. Not sure where I stand. I think he has a point in some ways, but not completely. Then again I never filed bankruptcy 4 times. Hope he's right!
It's not completely up to doctors. Their input is valuable, but they don't have a big picture view that economists have to make decisions like how long to keep areas locked down.
 
#28
Trump with record high ratings in monmouth yesterday and Gallup today. Gallup has 60% approving of his virus response.

The american people are feeding off his strength.
 
#29
Trump is talking about removing Federal mandates and orders. The governors of NY/NJ/CT will certainly leave controls in place if things don't improve a lot before then.
You cant force people out of darkness, you can only show then the way. Self pity is a hard thing to overcome.
 
#33
Because everywhere else is going up as well.

Geometrically ( I believe its the correct term) increasing 20-25% a day

That means deaths are gonns be doubling every 3.5 days or so.

200 deaths will becoming 1600 death a day in two weeks.

Red States are still not taking this seriously enough

And god forbid it mutates into something stronger
 
#34
Because everywhere else is going up as well.

Geometrically ( I believe its the correct term) increasing 20-25% a day

That means deaths are gonns be doubling every 3.5 days or so.

200 deaths will becoming 1600 death a day in two weeks.

Red States are still not taking this seriously enough

And god forbid it mutates into something stronger
Quite a few states had numbers drop today, fake news. We really need to separate NY,NJ cases from the rest of the coutry to see if these measures are working.

You also have CA with a huge pop but very few cases(proportionally) acting like they're NY.
 
#38
Some 199 people in New York City have died from the pandemic after seven deaths were reported overnight, city officials said. A majority of the cases are under 50 years old but almost all the fatalities are older than 45. The statewide death toll is nearing 300.
 
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