JIMMY THE GREEK SAYS

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
(4) Georgia -27.5 over Arkansas:
Hopefully the start of the SEC 14 days later will prove positive to get me off the schneid after some awful luck thus far the first 2 weeks. We'll give the ACC a much needed break after some bad loses in Clemson and Pitt the first 2 weeks. 4th ranked Georgia travels to Donald W Reynolds Razorback Stadium to take on Arkansas in the SEC opener for both. The Bulldogs come off a 12-2 2019 campaign including 7-1 in the conference achieving a national ranking of 4th despite eventually losing in the SEC Championship to eventual national titleholder LSU 37-10. Quarterback and NFL rookie bigmouth specialist Jake Frohm led the team in passing with 2,860 yards and 24 touchdowns. Running back D'Andre Swift led the team in rushing with 1,218 yards. Both stars have since moved on to Buffalo and Detroit in the NFL respectfully, but you still can't look back from this national power to repeat for contention in 2020. The Bulldogs have added USC transfer quarterback JT Daniels, who arrives as a redshirt sophomore with immediate eligibility and is competing with Jamie Newman who transferred from Wake Forest and offers a ton of upside at the position. He’s a dual-threat player who offers way more versatility and playmaking ability than Fromm ever could’ve hoped to. That could open up the offense in a major way. They also added Florida State graduate transfer tight end Tre' McKitty. The team also signed the nation's No. 1 recruiting class for the second time in three years, giving Georgia the most talented roster in college football on paper. Georgia kept its eight conference games that were already scheduled, and the Bulldogs added a match at Arkansas and one at home against Mississippi State to round out its 10-game slate. Newman showcased his phenomenal ability last season. He went 220-of-361 for 2,868 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions while also rushing for 574 yards and six scores as well. The quarterback is unafraid to take shots down the field, which could better utilize the Bulldogs’ pass-catching weapons and open things up. In addition, head coach Kirby Smart feels optimistic this season about his defense which kept points off the board and stymied the opponents' rushing attack, or lackthereof. The passing defense, while good, was carved up by Joe Burrow in the SEC Championship Game, but in fairness, almost every team that faced the eventual national champions had it happen to them. Despite losing 5 starters on that front, they've more than made up for it thanks to Malik Herring’s decision to return for his senior season, along with the return of Devonte Wyatt and a fully-healthy 5th-year senior Julian Rochester, The depth on the defensive roster extends to the secondary, where Tyson Campbell and Eric Stokes will man the corners.

In what was a horrendous mess last season, Arkansas (2-10 0-8) lost their final 9 games in a row and ended the 2019 campaign with a 19 loss losing streak against SEC competition. Second-year head coach Chad Morris was fired after a loss to Western Kentucky in November. He finished at Arkansas with a record of 4–18, going 0–14 in SEC play. Enter Sam Pittman, a career assistant who mostly dealt with offensive lines in his 16 previous gigs, including at Arkansas under in the mid-2010s. He might not have any head coaching experience outside of the high school and community college level, but he brought in a few coordinators to help make up for that. Improving the nation’s 111th best offense that averaged 340 yards and 21 points per game, and failed to score more than 24 points ten times in 12 games, starts with getting more out of the passing game. Five different quarterbacks combined to miss more than half of their throws, connect on just 5.7 yards per pass, and threw 14 touchdown passes with 15 interceptions. Rakeem Boyd was a bright spot with a team-high 1,133 rushing yards and eight scores, and Arizona State transfer Trelon Smith should be ready to go as a speedy all-around option in the mix. Depth and consistency continues to be a major obstacle and question mark for this bunch, but the good news likely for the Razorbacks is that things couldn't be as bleak as 2019, unless the layoff and lack of motivation rears its' ugly head early on. Defense was no exception to Arkansas’ shortcomings in 2019. They finished ranked 110th in the FBS and last in the SEC in total defense. They gave up an average of 36.8 points per game, not only a distant last in the SEC but also 124th in the country and last among Power 5 programs. Some of the struggles can be blamed on injuries to key players, but a lot of it was dysfunction in the program. The Razorbacks have a lot of key players to replace, but perhaps an overhaul is what the defense needed. Barry Odom said in late April the team would run a multiple-scheme system.. With Arkansas still yet to hold a practice amid the coronavirus pandemic, it’s likely not much has changed. McTelvin Agim and Jamario Bell were both lost defensive linemen who combined for 9.5 sacks. They also have to replace linebacker De’Jon Harris, who led the SEC in tackles through the regular season in 2018 and 2019. The Razorbacks also lose another key piece from their defense in the secondary. Safety Kamren Curl, who had 76 tackles and a team-high 2 interceptions, declared for the NFL Draft after his junior season. Arkansas already wasn’t great at forcing turnovers, averaging just 0.5 interceptions per game last year, tied for 106th in the FBS.

The Georgia offense won’t be slow-and-go, but it’ll be deliberate enough to control the clock and the pace of the game to be in control throughout. 26 points is a lot to spot a program in a conference battle at home. But considering how badly the Razorbacks were blown out last year, and not just by the usual suspects, this spread at next glance doesn't seem as daunting as one would feel.
 
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jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
(6) LSU -16.5 over Mississippi St:
The defending National Champions begin the post Joe Burrow era with equal expectations and an equal amount of competitiveness once again led by head coach Ed Orgeron. The Tigers ran the table last season capped off by a 42-25 victory over Clemson, the then defensing national champions from 2018. LSU's record-setting offense was led by Burrow, who won the Heisman by the largest margin in the history of the award, and broke several NCAA FBS records, including most touchdown passes (60), and highest passer rating (202.0). He was accompanied on offense by 1,400-yard running back Clyde Edwards Helaire and two 1,500-yard receivers Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson. While the aforementioned explosive offensive dup headed to Cincinnati and Kansas City respectably, replacing nearly 40% of their roster will certainly be a challenge. There will be no chances for the Tigers to transition to quarterback Myles Brennan, to adjust to the 4-3 base defense that new defensive coordinator Bo Pelini is adopting after Dave Aranda’s departure or to allow guys growing pains against inferior competition. It’ll be baptism by fire in the SEC schedule as they face one conference foe after another. Tyrion Davis-Price carried the ball in every contest in 2019 except for the national championship game as a freshman. He totaled 64 attempts for 295 yards. His six rushing touchdowns ranked as second-most on the team. Sophomore John Emery Jr. rushed 39 times for 188 yards and four touchdowns. Chase and Terrence Marshall will be solid returns for Brennan and this offense. Marshall Jr. participated in 12 contests during last season. His 671 receiving yards and 13 receiving touchdowns put him in third place among his teammates. He finished fifth on the team with 46 catches. Austin Deculus is back to man one tackle job, but it’s 6-7, 314-pound Dare Rosenthal who has the biggest upside. Providing even more consistency and promise on defense, is that the Tigers might have the best defensive back pair in the country in CB Derek Stingley and S JaCoby Stevens. Elias Ricks might just be the next Stingley, as the corners will likely wreak havoc on opposing receivers.

While showing flashes at times last season, the schedule and results were disappointing in Starkville last season, as the Bulldogs went just 6-7 overall and 3-5 in the SEC. Enter Mike Leach in his first season, who many foes know is a pass happy camper, especially from his days from Washington in 2012 and 2013. Despite not living up to expectations, the Huskies were in the top 10 in the aerial attack and was No. 1 in four of the next six years, was second in one of the off seasons, and third in the other. Stanford transfer KJ Costello will take over the starting quarterback job right away, but be stunned if he’s not a national star running this attack. It’s a fluid situation considering Costello had to graduate from Stanford first before joining on, and other options want a shot at getting to run the high-octane attack. The Bulldogs do have other options, including exciting dual-threat sophomore Garrett Shrader, who played in 10 games and started four last season, but Costello seems likely to get the first crack at running the Mississippi State air raid. Kylin Hill also returns for his senior season, and he could be set up for a monster year. He led the SEC in rushing yardage in the regular season in 2019. The biggest question for Leach and Mississippi State in Year 1 is do the Bulldogs have the skill personnel to run Leach’s system successfully? Mississippi State has struggled to recruit wide receivers, in part because of Dan Mullen’s run-oriented scheme for nearly a decade. DC Zach Arnett inherits a defense full of talent, but low on big names. Senior linebacker Erroll Thompson, last season’s leading tackler, is the heart and soul of the Mississippi State defense, but beyond him there are many unknowns. Thompson led the team with 84 last season. After deciding to return for his senior year, he has a shot to compile 90 tackles and lead the team again. In the 3-3-5 system, Thompson is sure to thrive. He leads the team in tackles again and enhances his draft stock in the process.

I'm uncertain if Leach's offensive system simply won't work in the SEC. The size and speed in the middle of LSU's defense, even though most of the players are unproven -- will exploit a Mississippi State offensive line that put too much emphasis on spacing and speed rather than size and power. The play of LSU's offensive line will not only dictate the outcome of the game but for the entire season. If the line is up to the task, Mississippi State will have limited chances. Defensively, the Tigers gave up 20.2 points per game last season. With Tyler Shelvin and Glen Logan returning, and the team adding All-American linebacker Jabril Cox from FCS power North Dakota State, their defense won’t lose much of a step. Even though they lost a lot of veteran leadership, LSU still has enough talent to compete for another championship. The Bulldogs should be improved from the team that won six games last season, but they are in their first year under Leach, so don’t expect an immediate turnaround.

Best of luck however you play!
YTD 0-2 .000 -2.30
 
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