jimmythegreek
The opening odds start here
(24) Pittsburgh -13.5 -120 over NC State:
So we backed the Panthers two weeks ago only to find them looking lackluster and inconsistent despite the win over conference foe Syracuse. We'll give them one more shot considering they seemed to right the ship last week in a hard fought battle over then #24 Louisville by a field goal. Kenny Pickett (23/38 220 2 TD 1 INT) had an overall decent game throwing both of his scores in the first half, an 8 yard hookup to Jordan Addison (7-77 1 TD) followed by a 21 yard scoring strike to Taysir Mack (3-62 1 TD) in a high scoring first half. Six running backs combined for 155 yards which provided good balance however falling shy of 4 yards per carry not finding the end zone in the process. Pickett did fumble 4 times as well losing the ball twice, however the defense provided the second half spark it needed recording 8 sacks overall including 4 by Patrick Jones II. Malik Cunningham (9/21107 1 TD 3 INT) had plenty of opportunities to pull off the win late, but the Cardinals were held to just a 3rd quarter field goal the rest of the way after trailing 20-17 at halftime. The Panthers did their job up front as well limiting Louisville to just 116 yards on the ground, 75 of those on a TD run by Javian Hawkins (13-78 6.0 1 TD) and held the Cards to just 223 overall. Tutu Alwell (4-37 1 TD) caught a scoring pass from Cunningham midway through the second quarter that gave UL it's only lead at 17-13. Pitt also controlled the time of possession for 35 minutes and had twice as many first downs as the Cardinals. This will be Pitt's 4th straight home game at Heinz Field to start the season as they host NC State (1-1 1-1). The Wolfpack suffered a 45-24 defeat at the hands of then #20 Virginia Tech last week in Blacksburg. Khalil Herbert (6-104 17.3 1 TD) led 6 RB's to a 310 yard rushing performance by the Hokies including a 37 yard scoring run late in the first for a 10-0 lead. Quincy Patterson (4/6 75 2 TD) enhanced the dual threat under center by throwing scoring passes to James Michell (3-68 1 TD) and Tavion Robinson (4-40 1 TD) in the second quarter while taking it in himself from a yard out (10-47 4.7 1 TD) for his third TS of the day. Devin Leary (12/16 165 1 TD) played well overall coming off the bench in the second half replacing an ineffective Bailey Hockman (7/16 82 2 INT) as the Wolfpack trailed 31-10 at halftime. Leary could get the starting nod against Pitt Saturday. Zonovan Knight (14-94 6.7) and Ricky Person Jr. (13-64 4.9 1 TD) each had solid games for the NC State ground game, however most of that success came with the outcome well in hand as both QB's were sacked a combined 7 times while State committed 3 turnovers in all.
Pitt is not a team that's going to look to generate an up tempo game nor look to blow too many opponents out, however they do have a solid defense looking to wear opponents making big plays leading to short fields and points. Pickett (62/94 712 5 TD 2 INT) has been relatively efficient thus far, with his protection being fairly adequate up front. The running game could use a little more depth and consistency though as Vincent Davis (42-156 3.7 2 TD) is the backfield workhorse. They do have balance in the receiving corps led by Jordan Addison (21-200 2 TD), who has reliable hands and speed with yardage after catch. DJ Turner (9-133 1 TD) is also a formidable threat. It's no secret that Heinz is one of the more difficult venues to kick due to a swirling wind as one area of the stadium is open acting as a wind tunnel off the rivers. Alex Kessman is just 3/6 thus far with his longest from just 45 yards. The bread and butter of this squad has been the defense led by Jones II, Weaver with 4 sacks each along with 4 others recorded 2 sacks. Jones is also tied with Cam Bright for the team lead in tackles with 15. Pitt's front-four deserve quite a bit of credit, too, after containing and pressuring Cunningham all afternoon, more often than without a fifth player blitzing. Jones' career day, Rashad Weaver's 2.5 TFLs and forced fumble, and Calijah Kancey's breakthrough performance (1.5 TFLs and a hurry for the redshirt freshman) were more than enough to carry Cunningham. Pitt coming into their 4th game of the season is second in the country in total defense allowing just 177 total yards per contest.
Hockman (23/39 273 1 TD 3 INT) seemingly has fallen out of favor with head coach Dave Doeren given his quick yet careless decision making falling way behind early against the Hokies last week. While Leary deserves a formidable shot here in week 4, the toughest test will be against a defense that has allowed only10 points per contest. Knight (25-191 7.6 1 TD) and Person Jr. (27-163 6.0 3 TD) could provide a moderate test for Pitt's run defense, but Devin Carter (7-109 1 TD) is the lone downfield threat through the air. Additionally, the defense has been lit up allowing better than 40 points thus far in losses to Wake Forest and last week to Va Tech. The Wolfpack has recorded 9 sacks thus far, but their pass secondary and defensive line remains a major question mark which might give Pickett a chance to turn things around and elevate his confidence with more successful throws against coverage. The opposition has converted nearly half of their third down conversions thus far, and while the Wolfpack run a more up tempo scheme, the lack of efficiency in stopping their conference foes has proven costly early on.
NC State's defense gave up four rushing touchdowns against Wake Forest and 314 yards and three touchdowns in their loss to Virginia Tech. Offensively, expect the Panthers to lean on their ground game, as they will face a Wolfpack defense that's given up 232 rushing yards per game. The NC State lines aren’t going to handle Pitt in the trenches. Nothing is stopping Weaver, Jones, and the rest of the Panther pass rushers for a defense that’s coming though time and again. IF Pitt can sustain and succeed on long drives wearing an already depleted defense down, it should win by better than 2 scores.
I'll have a second play for Saturday coming up a bit later.
So we backed the Panthers two weeks ago only to find them looking lackluster and inconsistent despite the win over conference foe Syracuse. We'll give them one more shot considering they seemed to right the ship last week in a hard fought battle over then #24 Louisville by a field goal. Kenny Pickett (23/38 220 2 TD 1 INT) had an overall decent game throwing both of his scores in the first half, an 8 yard hookup to Jordan Addison (7-77 1 TD) followed by a 21 yard scoring strike to Taysir Mack (3-62 1 TD) in a high scoring first half. Six running backs combined for 155 yards which provided good balance however falling shy of 4 yards per carry not finding the end zone in the process. Pickett did fumble 4 times as well losing the ball twice, however the defense provided the second half spark it needed recording 8 sacks overall including 4 by Patrick Jones II. Malik Cunningham (9/21107 1 TD 3 INT) had plenty of opportunities to pull off the win late, but the Cardinals were held to just a 3rd quarter field goal the rest of the way after trailing 20-17 at halftime. The Panthers did their job up front as well limiting Louisville to just 116 yards on the ground, 75 of those on a TD run by Javian Hawkins (13-78 6.0 1 TD) and held the Cards to just 223 overall. Tutu Alwell (4-37 1 TD) caught a scoring pass from Cunningham midway through the second quarter that gave UL it's only lead at 17-13. Pitt also controlled the time of possession for 35 minutes and had twice as many first downs as the Cardinals. This will be Pitt's 4th straight home game at Heinz Field to start the season as they host NC State (1-1 1-1). The Wolfpack suffered a 45-24 defeat at the hands of then #20 Virginia Tech last week in Blacksburg. Khalil Herbert (6-104 17.3 1 TD) led 6 RB's to a 310 yard rushing performance by the Hokies including a 37 yard scoring run late in the first for a 10-0 lead. Quincy Patterson (4/6 75 2 TD) enhanced the dual threat under center by throwing scoring passes to James Michell (3-68 1 TD) and Tavion Robinson (4-40 1 TD) in the second quarter while taking it in himself from a yard out (10-47 4.7 1 TD) for his third TS of the day. Devin Leary (12/16 165 1 TD) played well overall coming off the bench in the second half replacing an ineffective Bailey Hockman (7/16 82 2 INT) as the Wolfpack trailed 31-10 at halftime. Leary could get the starting nod against Pitt Saturday. Zonovan Knight (14-94 6.7) and Ricky Person Jr. (13-64 4.9 1 TD) each had solid games for the NC State ground game, however most of that success came with the outcome well in hand as both QB's were sacked a combined 7 times while State committed 3 turnovers in all.
Pitt is not a team that's going to look to generate an up tempo game nor look to blow too many opponents out, however they do have a solid defense looking to wear opponents making big plays leading to short fields and points. Pickett (62/94 712 5 TD 2 INT) has been relatively efficient thus far, with his protection being fairly adequate up front. The running game could use a little more depth and consistency though as Vincent Davis (42-156 3.7 2 TD) is the backfield workhorse. They do have balance in the receiving corps led by Jordan Addison (21-200 2 TD), who has reliable hands and speed with yardage after catch. DJ Turner (9-133 1 TD) is also a formidable threat. It's no secret that Heinz is one of the more difficult venues to kick due to a swirling wind as one area of the stadium is open acting as a wind tunnel off the rivers. Alex Kessman is just 3/6 thus far with his longest from just 45 yards. The bread and butter of this squad has been the defense led by Jones II, Weaver with 4 sacks each along with 4 others recorded 2 sacks. Jones is also tied with Cam Bright for the team lead in tackles with 15. Pitt's front-four deserve quite a bit of credit, too, after containing and pressuring Cunningham all afternoon, more often than without a fifth player blitzing. Jones' career day, Rashad Weaver's 2.5 TFLs and forced fumble, and Calijah Kancey's breakthrough performance (1.5 TFLs and a hurry for the redshirt freshman) were more than enough to carry Cunningham. Pitt coming into their 4th game of the season is second in the country in total defense allowing just 177 total yards per contest.
Hockman (23/39 273 1 TD 3 INT) seemingly has fallen out of favor with head coach Dave Doeren given his quick yet careless decision making falling way behind early against the Hokies last week. While Leary deserves a formidable shot here in week 4, the toughest test will be against a defense that has allowed only10 points per contest. Knight (25-191 7.6 1 TD) and Person Jr. (27-163 6.0 3 TD) could provide a moderate test for Pitt's run defense, but Devin Carter (7-109 1 TD) is the lone downfield threat through the air. Additionally, the defense has been lit up allowing better than 40 points thus far in losses to Wake Forest and last week to Va Tech. The Wolfpack has recorded 9 sacks thus far, but their pass secondary and defensive line remains a major question mark which might give Pickett a chance to turn things around and elevate his confidence with more successful throws against coverage. The opposition has converted nearly half of their third down conversions thus far, and while the Wolfpack run a more up tempo scheme, the lack of efficiency in stopping their conference foes has proven costly early on.
NC State's defense gave up four rushing touchdowns against Wake Forest and 314 yards and three touchdowns in their loss to Virginia Tech. Offensively, expect the Panthers to lean on their ground game, as they will face a Wolfpack defense that's given up 232 rushing yards per game. The NC State lines aren’t going to handle Pitt in the trenches. Nothing is stopping Weaver, Jones, and the rest of the Panther pass rushers for a defense that’s coming though time and again. IF Pitt can sustain and succeed on long drives wearing an already depleted defense down, it should win by better than 2 scores.
I'll have a second play for Saturday coming up a bit later.