JIMMY THE GREEK SAYS

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
#1
(6) Florida -31 over Vanderbilt:
The 6th ranked Gators (5-1 5-1) will look to build on last week’s ambush of Arkansas when they travel north to Vanderbilt (0-6 0-6) who is looking to pick up their first victory of the season. Last week in the swamp, Kyle Trask (23/29 356 6 TD) set a single game team record throwing 6 TD passes to a variety of receivers, and also complemented their air attack with 208 rushing yards in a 63-35 rout of the Razorbacks. Trask threw scores of 9 and 14 yards in the first half to Trevon Grimes (6-109 2 TD) and also found Keon Zipperer (3-47 2 TD) twice more in the end zone as the Gators racked up 593 yards of total offense. Florida’s defense sacked Feleipe Franks 5 times and forced 2 lost fumbles as the Gators cruised to a 35-14 halftime lead only initiating the rout in the second half. The Hogs did their best to keep up with Florida’s high powered attack, but it wasn’t nearly enough for their defense to contain. Treion Smith (8-118 14.8 1 TD) had an 83 yard TD run, and Rakeem Boyd (12-56 4.7 1TD) added a 12 yard run. Mike Woods (2-129 2 TD) was the recipient of 82 and 47 yard TD bombs from Franks. Zachary Carter returned a fumble 35 yards to paydirt. Florida notched 36 first downs and dominated the time of possession 39-21. Meanwhile in a spirited effort, the Commodores stayed close pretty much throughout but fell to Kentucky 38-35 at Kroger Field. Chris Rodriguez (13-149 11.5 2 TD) rushed for scores of 3 and 74 yards, Terry Wilson (13/15 110 2 TD) was responsible for 3 Wildcat scores adding a 32 yard TD calling his own number on a draw, and Kentucky racked up 308 total rushing yards. Vanderbilt played a turnover free game, limited a stingy Kentucky defense to just 2 sacks, and almost stood toe to toe in yardage from scrimmage by just 51 yards. Despite the losing effort, Ken Seals (21/32 225 2 TD) hooked up with Chris Pierce (3-53 1 TD) on a 34 yard score and then found Cam Johnson (4-17 1 TD) on a 7 yard toss.

Trask (148/211 2171 28 TD 3 INT) will no doubt have a bright future at the next level in the upcoming draft and in the NFL next season, as the senior has one of the more efficient TD to INT ratios. He has been sacked only 6 times this season, has fabulous pocket presence with a gun for an arm on the run and in play action dropback situations. TD Kyle Pitts (24-414 8 TD) is a top target over the middle as is Kadarius Toney (36-397 6 TD) and Grimes (19-303 5 TD) completing a three headed monster in the aerial attack. Considering Trask’s success is pretty remarkable since they are dominant through the air and not even close to their success in running the ball. Pierce (61-290 4.8 2 TD) is the lone workhorse despite lacking depth in their second preference when it comes to play by play. Florida averages nearly 48 ppg ranked 4th in the county with a top 10 passing game to the tune of 512 scrimmage yards on average overall. That does not bode well in the least for Vandy, who remains winless despite mounted efforts against quality competition. The Commodores allow nearly 36 points per contest and are in the bottom three quarters in the nation giving up 259 yards on average and are also near the bottom against the rush. Anfernee Orji and Jaylen Mahoney each have 38 tackles, but Vandy has just 9 sacks all season, 4 by DL Dayo Odeyingbo with just 1 INT. Florida and head coach Dan Mullen can play this anyway they want against a defense that lacks personnel and creativity to make plays, but you know they will relatively stick with the game plan and look to strike through the air early and often.

Seals (131/196 1291 8 TD 8 INT) has shown flashes of efficiency and isn’t as bad as other winless teams which sport a lower echelon of talent under center, however most of his success surrounds around shorter routes when he does take more chances. Clearly the achilles heel lies in the lack of the running game where they average a season worst 38 yards per contest on the ground and only 4 rushing TD. Needless to say, expect few carries engineered by either team. The Commodores average under 17 points per game and are 103rd in the country in rushing offense. And despite a valiant effort last week, don’t possess the same talent and tempo as their opponents Saturday. Florida isn’t exactly a defensive powerhouse surrendering 30 ppg, but their margin of victory is nearly 18 points positive, and come out of the gate so quickly that opponents are mercifully playing from behind. Still, DC Todd Graham week to week is always looking for room for improvement no matter who the opponent may be. they do rank among the leaders in team sacks with 20, including 3 each by Carter and Brenton Cox Jr. Ventrell Miller is a force to be reckoned with thanks to his team high 42 tackles and his discipline to press the issue when it comes to pressure or staying at home between the blocks.

This will be the first true away game for the SEC East-leading Gators since they suffered their only defeat of the season in a 41-38 thriller at Texas A&M on Oct. 10. Florida has been full steam ahead since that loss. Vanderbilt’s secondary has one interception on the year and over the last three games it allowed Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Kentucky combine to hit 82% of their passes. Trask is easily one of the top frontrunners for the Heisman Trophy as he has thrown for 28 TDs through 6 games, and the Vanderbilt defense hasn’t seen anything like him this season. The Florida offense will put up points at will against the Commodores, and I don’t think Vanderbilt has the offensive firepower to stay close despite the fat number. Give all day.

I’ll have a second Saturday selection upcoming.
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
#2
(4) Clemson -35 over Florida St (bought half) -120:
Trevor Lawrence returns this Saturday for 4th ranked Clemson (7-1 6-1) and it could not be a moment too soon considering the Tigers split their 2 games for the top draft pick after recovering from COVID 19. Two weeks ago, Clemson lost in double OT to 2nd ranked Notre Dame 47-40 in South Bend. Kyren Williams (23-140 6.1 3 TD) scored on a pair of 3 yard TD runs, one in the first OT and a second in the decisive second extra session. Williams also scored on a 65 yarder to paydirt to open the scoring just 33 in. Ian Book (22/39 310 1 TD) found Avery Davis (4-78 1 TD) on a 4 yard TD connection with :22 left to tie the game at 33 at the end of regulation forcing the extra sessions. Despite two losing fumbles, Book, who also ran for 67 yards on 14 carries (4.8), helped erase a regulation deficit and solidify the runner up spot in the rankings. D.J. Uiagalelei (29/44 439 2 TD) played excellent throughout Lawrence’s absence ,but the biggest glaring stat was all American Travis Ettienne held to just 28 yards on 18 carries (1.6) and a TD. Etienne also lost 3 of his teams 4 lost fumbles despite Cornell Powell (6-161 1 TD) and Amari Rodgers (8-134) registering 100+ receiving yards. The Tigers travel South to Tallahasse to take on upset minded Florida St (2-6 1-6) from Doak Campbell Stadium. Last week, Bailey Hockman (24/34 266 3 TD 1 INT) had the upper hand all afternoon on the vulnerable FSU pass secondary, and Zonovan Knight (17-94 5.5 1 TD) ran for an 18 yard score as the Wolfpack crushed the Seminoles 38-22. Thayer Thomas (11-135 2 TD) had a career afternoon being the proud recipient of TD passes from Hockman of 10 and 24 yards, while the ground game racked up nearly 150 yards of offense. NC State’s defense forced 3 turnovers and 4 sacks of Chubba Purdy (15/23 181 2 TD). Ontaria Wilson (7-117 1 TD) tried to singlehandedly get back in the game but to no avail. FSU has now lost 3 straight and facing a national powerhouse at home for week 12.

Lawrence (135/191 1833 17 TD 2 INT) is once again on the inside track to the Heisman as well as the chase for returning to the Championship stage. Yes folks, he’s like the college version of Aaron Rodgers, because he’s a BAAAAAAD MAN! No disrespect to D.J. Uiagalelei who also excelled in Lawrence’s absence, but given how valuable Lawrence is to his Tigers, Dabo Sweeney prefers not to take any chances. Etienne (121-634 5.3 10 TD) may have felt like he was on an island the last few weeks, but the All American will certainly please whichever team he heads to in the future on Sundays. It will be hard to believe and pressed to even think Lawrence would stay in school one more season, especially since he already has a championship under his belt. Rodgers (48-720 6 TD) is quite the workhorse and has also had help in the flat from Etienne (37-491 2 TD) considering he is lightning quick when it comes to yards after catch. At 45.5 points per contest, they certainly are chock full of offense especially when it comes to their top 5 passing attack and 507 yards of total offense on average. This obviously could be a major problem for the Noles, who give up nearly 37 ppg. There are some bright spots in the mix like Amari Gainer (60 tackles) and Emmett Rice (55 tackles) who are quick and versatile with each snap, and Asante Samuel who has 4 of his team’s 6 picks. However, FSU doesn’t like to play toe to toe nor push the pedal to the metal against power opponents, so unless they can contain the champs from 2 years ago, the speed of Clemson could wear them down early.

Purdy (27/53 219 2 TD 1 INT) is the third QB the Seminoles have used this season, and while he’s no Jordan Travis or James Blackman, he’s getting his chance playing for pride in the late stages. His receiving core is quite thin led by Wilson (28-332 2 TD), and Tamorrion Terry (23-289 1 TD), Travis before he got injured (85-4695.56 TD), would be about as versatile as you can get, will have to steal the spotlight when it comes to the ground game via option alternative. LaDamian Webb (69-369 5.3 3 TD) will have to be the man in the backfield to produce in order for FSU to have any upset hopes. Clemson’s defense, which at times has bended but not broken, allows just a shade under 20 ppg this season thanks to a hard fought high scoring victory vs BC and a 2 OT thriller at ND. Leading the nation with 31 sacks, this balanced group begins with Braylen Spector’s 47 tackles, 4 sacks from Miles Murphy, and Nolan Turner’s speed on the outside and anticipation evident by 4 of his team’s 10 picks, FSU will have their hands full nonetheless. DC Brent Vernables would love nothing more than to make a statement with a full healthy squad as Clemson looks to get back into National Championship contention.

Florida State has been abysmal defensively so far this season. Hyped in the offseason as one of the best defensive lines in all of college football, the Seminoles rank dead last in the ACC in sacks with just 10 in eight games. To make matters worse, FSU will be without defensive tackle Marvin Wilson for the remainder of the year. The lack of a pass rush has killed FSU in the secondary. This is where this program starts to kick it all in, and with Lawrence back, expect things to get back to where they once were like he never left.

Hoping to make it 6 in a row, best of luck however you play!
YTD 8-10 .444 -3.60
 
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