JIMMY THE GREEK SAYS

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
(2) Notre Dame -33.5 over Syracuse:
The second ranked Fighting Irish (9-0 8-0) remained undefeated last weekend and earned a quality win over then 19th ranked North Carolina 31-17 at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Ian Book (23/33 279 1 TD) had one of his better games this season also rushing for 48 yards on 8 carries (6.0), and Ben Skowronek ran for a 13 yard game tying TD in the third quarter, his only carry of the game. Kyren Williams (23-144 5.4 2 TD) led an Irish ground attack that gained 200 yards thanks to a pair of one yard TD runs, and Javon McKlinley (5-135) caught some key long passes from Book that converted several third down attempts. In a game that featured no turnovers by either side, ND’s defense limited the Tar Heels to just 87 total rushing yards, and sacked Sam Howell (17/27 211 1 TD) 7 times. The Irish held a 478-298 scrimmage yardage edge, and produced a 25-14 advantage on first downs. Meanwhile, at the Carrier Dome, NC State battled from an 8 point deficit at halftime and held off Syracuse (1-9 1-8) 36-29 thanks to a 9 point 4th quarter. Bailey Hockman (23/31 313 4 TD 1 INT) found Emeka Emezie (4-33 1 TD) to give the Wolfpack the lead for good, and Christopher Dunn added a 31 yard field goal to ice it. Thayer Thomas (9-102 3 TD) caught scoring passes of 9,15, and 31 yards. Syracuse led most of the way before posting a 4th quarter goose egg as the Orange were held to just 3 rushing yards despite a valiant effort by Rex Culpepper (23/45 254 2 TD). Taj Harris (13-146 2 TD) was the star of the game despite the loss and Nykeim Johnson’s lone reception went 60 yards to paydirt. The Orangemen posted 7 sacks and forced 2 turnovers, but gave NC State too many opportunities in crunch time.

Book (157/249 2097 12 TD 1 INT) continues to be as accurate as any championship caliber team in the country while also showing why he’s one of the nation’s most mobile QB’s (83-412 5.0 6 TD). Though McKinley (30-550) still hasn’t found the end zone, Skowronek (17-273 5 TD) leads the Irish in receiving TD’s. Williams (160-901 5.6 12 TD) has had 5 100+ yard rushing games, which explains why ND sports the 15th best rushing attack in the country averaging 230 yards. Notre Dame isn’t necessarily your up tempo type offense, but remains efficient when they get out to huge leads and wear you down with the run despite their 37 points on average per contest. Syracuse’s defense is absolutely porous yielding 33 points per game, and are among the worst in defending the run allowing nearly203 yards. Mikei Jones had 68 tackles, while Jahad Carter and Geoff Cantin Akru are tied for second on the team with 60. Jones also has 5 of the Orange’s 13 INT’s, along with 24 team sacks However, it’s giving up the big plays that sets Syracuse too far back from keeping themselves in control resulting in lopsided defeats or heartbreakers.

Culpepper’s biggest drawback is his inefficiency (76/161 843 8 TD 7 INT) and accuracy despite the ability to throw the deep ball. The 'Cuse have used three QB’s this season, but have struggled to find consistency under Dino Babers. In addition to Johnson (18-310 4 TD) their lead playmaker is Harris (50-664 5 TD). A lack of depth is also prevalent by their leading rusher Sean Tucker (114-526 4.6 3 TD) as he is responsible for all of Syracuse rushing scores. The Orange average less than 18 ppg and produce only 78 rushing yards overall, 2nd worst in the country, as is their 249 net yardage only behind U Mass. This plays right into the hands of ND’s defense, allowing only 17 ppg and is 4th in the country against the run. Their pass defense is pretty decent too, and overall are 10th in the country in total defense. Kyle Hamilton has 45 tackles and the Irish have 2 backs with speed and avengance on the outside, Adetokunbo Ogundeji (6) and Isahiah Foskey (5) responsible for 11 of their team’s 28 sacks. Their turnover rate in the INT department is low due to just 6 overall, but one area Brian Vangorder is extremely happy about is their ability to stop their opponents when it comes to their 3rd and 4th down efficiency and prevention.

ND can’t afford to look ahead and need to stay focused. Yes this is a ton of points to give a once worthy ACC opponent, but that was before they have totally fell short of expectations before we hit the midway point. I expect the Irish to be all business even if their is sporadic rust. I’d be surprised if Syracuse avoids the perennial goose egg given the ramifications on the line come National Championship discussion.

I’ll have a second selection up for Saturday.
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
(1) Alabama -29 over LSU:
Despite not having Nick Saban last week due to another COVID 19 case, Mac Jones (18/28 302 5 TD) once again made it look easy setting a personal high in TD passes in a 42-13 Alabama ambush over Auburn (5-3 5-3). The Crimson Tide (8-0 8-0) remained undefeated and in the unanimous top spot as Jones threw 4 of his scoring passes to Devonta Smith (7-171 2 TD) and John Metche III (6-55 2 TD). Najee Harris (11-96 8.7 1 TD) added a 39 yard TD run late in the third quarter as the Crimson Tide racked up 445 yards of total offense despite committing 2 turnovers, getting matched in first downs (20) and getting dominated in TOP (23:25) by Auburn. The Alabama defense sacked Bo Nix (23/38 227 2 INT) 5 times and forced 3 turnovers. Shaun Shivers ran 5 kickoffs back for a season low 68 yards. Meanwhile, Isaiah Spiller (27-141 5.2 1 TD) ran for a 52 yard TD in the first quarter which gave 5th ranked Texas A&M (6-1 6-1) all the scoring they needed in a 20-7 win over LSU (3-4 3-4) last week at Kyle Field in College Station. Seth Small added 2 40 yard field goals and Buddy Johnson returned an INT 20 yards to paydirt, offsetting a surprisingly subpar performance by Kellen Mond (11/34 108). Each team managed just 267 total yards, but the Aggies forced 4 turnovers of the Tigers, 3 courtesy of TJ Finley (9/25 118 2 INT) as both QB’s completed less than 40% of their passes. Max Johnson (14/22 113 1 TD) replaced Finley late and got LSU on the board thanks to a 3 yard TD pass to Terrace Marshall (10-134 1 TD) with under a minute left, spoiling the shutout.

Jones (173/227 2728 23 TD 3 INT) is out to prove that he’s more than worthy through the years of a backup role, and is second to none when it comes to passing accuracy, and TD to INT ratio nearly 8:1. Smith (72-1074 12 TD) is one of the top primary targets in the country, and he has plenty of good company in Metche (31-590 6 TD) and Jaylen Waddle (25-557 4 TD) who produces big plays in bunches. Harris (148-893 6.0 17 TD) has had 3 100+ rushing yard games including 206 against Miss St. The Crimson Tide average just under 49 ppg and are 5th in the country in total offense with 544 total yards per contest which includes the 4th ranked passing attack. That doesn’t bode well for LSU, who has the 7th worst passing defense in Div 1, and surrender better than 30 points per game. They could give Bama a test defensing the run, but Jones is first and foremost about scoring quickly and often. Jacoby Stevens has 42 tackles this season while Andre Anthony and BJ Ojulari each have 5 of the Tigers’ 18 sacks. Eli Ricks has 3 INT, but LSU has only 6 overall, so even if Jones doesn’t bring his A game, possessing the football will be key since he only has 3 miscues all season.

When Miles Brennan (79/131 1112 11 TD 3 INT) went down for the season with an abdominal injury, the transition to Finley (66/112 797 4 TD 5 INT) was by no means a smooth one. Still trying to make a bowl game nonetheless, LSU faces a daunting task this weekend to keep their hopes alive. Marshall Jr. (48-731 10 TD) has virtually been a one man show as the leading receiver, but the Tigers lack plenty of depth not just in the passing game, but with the run except for Tyrion Davis-Price (88-367 4.2 3 TD) and John Emery Jr (64-292 4.6 2 TD). LSU aren’t slouches by any stretch on offense scoring a shade under 31 per game, but most of their success in the aerial attack (319 yards) per game was with Brennan at the helm. They are absolutely awful in the running game (118 yards), in the bottom 15, and don’t have the physicality, ability, nor tempo to keep up with a high powered attack like Bama. Christopher Allen and Christian Barmore each have 4 sacks and Christian harris has a team leading 58 tackles. Watch out for Malachi Moore who has blazing speed as a cover corner and leads the Tide with 4 picks. Finley most certainly will have his hands full at home, and we haven’t even scratched the surface of a lack of home field advantage.

As potent as this offense is, I’m not sweating the 4+ TD differential here. These are not nearly the same defending champions from the days of Joe Burrow and numerous personnel who left for the NFL in the offseason. If the Tigers can’t find a way to generate pressure on Jones to throw him off his game, he’ll pick apart the secondary. If you don’t think Saban has the 46-41 defeat of last season on his mind that ended an 8 game winning streak against these Tigers, you’d better not blink before the final gun that started a new one in painful fashion.

Best of luck however you play!
YTD 11-13 .458 -3.90
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
JIMMY's laying a combined 62.5 points with his two college plays this weekend.

A pair of pointspread victories this Saturday will even his record at 13-13 in this space.
 
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