JIMMY THE GREEK SAYS

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
(1) Alabama -16 over (7) Florida:
After a slow start last week that kept a majority of the Roll Tide faithful on edge for about 11:00, top ranked and unbeaten Alabama (10-0 10-0) scored 49 unanswered and easily put Arkansas (3-7 3-7) away 52-3 in Fayetteville. Devonta Smith immediately shifted the momentum with an 64 yard punt return to paydirt breaking a 3 all tie late in the first quarter. Najee Harris (14-46 3.3 2 TD) scored TD runs of one and 5 yards in the second quarter, while Brian Robinson (13-54 4.2 3 TD) added 3 scores of his own. As the Crimson Tide racked up 443 yards of offense including 216 and 6 scores in all on the ground. That was all that was needed from Mac Jones (24/29 208), who was conservatively solid throughout setting up a onslaught of rushing TD. Bama forced 5 Razorback turnovers in all, and recorded 9 sacks in all. Feleipe Franks (8/10 90) could not elude a savage blitzing attack, and the defense limited Arkansas to just188 yards of total offense. The Tide also held a decisive edge in first downs 24-13. Meanwhile, in the swamp last week, Cade York split the uprights from a career long 57 yards as time ran out, giving LSU a surprising 37-34 win over then 6th ranked Florida (8-2 8-2). LSU was in it from the outset and surprised a lot of Gator faithful, who already knew win or loss that they were in the SEC Championship despite the Tigers providing a glancing blow to Florida who might have been looking ahead. York also nailed field goals from 30 and 39 yards earlier. Max Johnson (21/36 239 3 TD) played by far his best game of the season which ultimately turned out to be LSU’s championship. The Tigers also ran for 179 yards despite being held out of the end zone but nonetheless set up some big runs to create their damage in the passing game. Kayshan Boutie (5-108 1 TD) and Jaray Jenkins(4-65 1 TD) led the charge in the receiving core. Kyle Trask (29/47 474 2 TD 2 INT) did all he could but could not handle the resilient LSU defense which forced 4 turnovers and sacked him 5 times. Trask did run for 2 scores but lost 38 yards on 4 carries (-7.0). Kadarius Toney (9-182 1 TD) and Jacob Copeland (5-123 1 TD) helped Florida stay close. Evan Mcpherson converted a 31 yard field goal that evened the score at 34 with 2:31 remaining, but earlier Trask was victimized by a pick 6 by Elir Ricks that gave LSU an early 14-7 second quarter lead.

Jones (217/284 3321 27 TD 3 INT) is one of the coolest customers on the other side of the pillow when it comes to quickly gaining experience after the departure of Tua Tagovailoa. Jones will be the top candidate and consensus to win the 2020 Heisman Trophy award, and should be a shoo-in if he can make the National Championship semifinals. Harris (183-1084 5.9 22 TD) is one of the top caliber RB’s in the country, thanks to 4 100+ yard performances. Smith is a top talent in the receiving core (83-1327 15 TD) providing a burst of speed and a top playmaker in the country as you’ll see him playing on Sundays in the NFL next season. Alabama averages nearly 49 points per game and possesses the 5th rated total offensive attack in the nation with 538 total yards and a winning margin of 34 points. That doesn’t bode well for Florida, a steep stepdown in class yielding 26 ppg, 387 total yards, and 243 passing yards per contest. The only top team that is relatively close to UF is Miami, who comes in ranked at 32nd in defense efficiency. Ventrell Miller will have to be at his best showing that he can cover Alabama’s combination of playmakers. Miller led UF in tackles with 80, and is second on the team with 4 sacks, only trailing Brenton Cox Jr’s 5. Keep in mind that Jones 3 picks are tops least in the country and Florida as a team has just 8.

Trask (259/369 3717 40 TD 5 INT) will also probably be invited to the Heisman ceremony, but last week was one of his least efficient games of the season, but he also set a season high in single game passing yardage, tied with a win over Georgia earlier this season. Toney (62-831 9 TD) is Trask’s primary target notching his 3rd 100+ receiving yard game. The Gators have a well balanced receiving core complemented by Kyle Pitts (36-641 11 TD) and Trevon Grimes (34-511 8 TD) as their big 3 have combined for 28 of their team’s 40 receiving touchdowns. The achilles heel lies swiftly in the ground game, as Dameon Pierce (93-441 4.7 3 TD) has accounted for nearly half of Florida’s 8 rushing scores. Florida averages better than 41 ppg, leads the nation with 387 passing yards, and has the 8th most efficient offense averaging 514 total yards. Therefore the Alabama defense should be on their guard and might face a legitimate test. Bama has a top 20 rushing defense surrendering just 113 on the ground, and are middle of the pack in the passing secondary. The overall defense may not be as solid giving up 17 ppg, but is top 30 overall under Saban especially recent where they’re being scored on average 9 ppg over the last 6 contests. Christian Harris is the top tackler with 65, followed by Dylan Moses at 63, and they’ve both combined for 5 of his team’s 32 sacks. Christian Barmore has 6 sacks to lead Bama, and Malachi Moore has produced 4 of the Crimson’s 12 picks. Trask will have a tough test ahead of him, especially through the air as the Tide’s secondary and front line is clicking at the right time.

There’s no doubt Alabama’s defense is playing at a higher level than it was earlier this year, but Florida’s offense is also the toughest group this unit has faced since taking on Ole Miss. a dominant win over Florida would seal up this team with one of the best one-year runs by a program in SEC history. Alabama should still well be in line for a semifinal National Championship berth win or lose. The defense may not be nearly as efficient given Trask is a talent in itself who will definitely play on Sundays in the very near future, but Jones is having a banner season in itself that might prove too much for the Gators ability to stay close, combined with a better than stellar defense in comparison. Florida was going to have an issue anyway considering the best way to slow down the Tide offense is to have a strong running game, which would keep Jones. and company, on the sideline. Good luck with that.

I’ll have a second Saturday primetime selection up shortly.
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
(9) Cincinnati -13.5 over (23) Tulsa (bought half -120):
With so many implications at the top, it’s a slim to none chance that the 9th ranked unbeaten Bearcats (8-0 6-0) will be able to qualify for the National Championship Semifinals. However, if it’s any consolation they will certainly qualify for a NY6 bowl. Playing for the first time in over a month, the Bearcats are coming off a hard fought 36-33 win over UCF. Tulsa themselves (6-1 6-0) haven’t seen action in 2 weeks coming off a 19-6 defensive struggle over Navy. This game airs in primetime tonight at 8pm on ABC, and is for the AAC Championship at Nippert Stadium.

For Cincy, the focus will be on Desmond Ridder (143/215 1821 16 TD 6 INT), who has all in all had a stellar season despite the Bearcats primarily using their success on the ground. The Bearcats have a balanced receiving core in Jayshon Jackson (20-297 1 TD), Josh Whyle (24-291 5 TD), and Michael Young (23-260 3 TD). However, they have a two headed monster in their rushing attack led by Gerrid Doaks (137-660 4.8 7 TD) and Ridder running the option (67-526 7.9 11 TD) who as a pocket QB also has good speed in the open field. Hardly an up tempo team, it’s all about ball control, field position and efficiency for Cincinnati, who still manages to average 41 ppg. Their well-oiled machine is so balanced, that they average 474 total yards per contest, almost near evenly split, and 20th in the country. Tulsa’s defense surely will be tested, but they thrived early especially out of conference as they yield a shade under 20 ppg. They are especially tough against the pass where they only allow 184 yards on average. Safeties Zaven Collins and Kendarin Ray co-lead the Golden Hurricanes with 53 tackles each. Collins also has 5 of his team’s 18 sacks and leads the team with 5 INT run back for 3 TD. Ridder is going to have to take his time accessing the run game and to elude a more than worthy pass rush. Make no mistake, Luke Fickell will have his team ready to play, with the least incentive at worst complete a potential undefeated season.

Zach Smith (108/187 1434 11 TD 6 INT), like Ridder, is all about consistency and efficiency, and providing an offense that isn’t quick strike but can have some trick plays up their sleeve. Smith has a dual headed monster in the receiving core led by Keylon Stokes (35-508 2 TD) and Josh Johnson (35-484 6 TD). There’s not as much depth in the running game , as they have just 9 rushing TD all year. TK Wilkerson has 4 of those scores, but Deneric Prince (71-356 5.0 2 TD) and Corey Taylor (63-329 5.2 2 TD) receive much of the workload. At 28 ppg, the Tulsa offense isn’t as balanced as Cincy’s, especially with a weaker running game. The Bearcats are 9thin the country in total defense, gibing up just 308 total yards and 15 ppg. Jarell White is quick as a cat leaping on his prey with a team leading 69 tackles, and has 3 sacks and 2 INT. Myjal Sanders leads Cincinnati with 6 sacks, ad Coby Bryant has 4 of his team’s 14 INT.

Cincinnati has been getting disrespected by the CFP committee all season long. For two straight weeks, the Bearcats have moved down in the CFP rankings despite not playing a game, but it’s easy to understand why the motivation factor will still persist. Cincinnati has won 19 straight games in Nippert Stadium and I do not think that streak comes to an end here with the New Year’s Six and American Athletic Conference title on the line. When the Bearcats guide their way to anearly lead, they are one of the best in the country in preserving it, as their defense gets stronger. Tulsa is not one of those threats to hang in with a top defense.
Best of luck however you play!
YTD 13-15 .464 -4.20
 
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