JIMMY THE GREEK SAYS

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
(15) Coastal Carolina -19 over Arkansas St:
So the road has been quite rough over the last 2 weekends. I've dropped 4 straight games, but am taking a little extra time to study the board a little more meticulously hoping to capture a winning weekend. The past few weekends have been absolute horror shows. And go figure it's not occurring with me laying some of the hugest numbers on the board. I'm hoping the board can bear with me as timing and the results need the pendulum to swing hopefully positively going forward.

The Chanticleers (5-0 1-0) continue play within their Sun Belt conference against Arkansas St (1-4 0-1) at Centennial Bank Stadium. Coastal Carolina seems to roll on posting convincing victories and I was on them a couple of weeks ago when they humbled U Mass out of conference. I am ready for them to make some noise on the road. Last week their cupcake schedule continued when they stormed passed UL Monroe 59-6 at Brooks Stadium. Grayson McCall (13/13 212 2 TD) had an absolutely perfect day for a maximum CFB rating as he opened the scoring with a 5 yard TD pass to Isaiah Likely (5-95 2 TD). McCall then found Likely again in the second quarter from 30 yards out eventually extending the carnage to 21-3. Braydon Bennett had ran it in from 10 yards out for a score, also in the first quarter. Bennett also added a 29 yard rush to paydirt, Aaron Bedgood ran a botched punt 9 yard to the house, and Liam Gray added a 38 yard field goal to give the Chanticleers a 38-3 halftime lead over the Warhawks. CCU rushed for 275 yards and 3 TD's led by Reese White (15-95 6.3) and Bennett (7-76 10.9 2 TD). Jarrett Guest (4/4 49 1 TD) came on in the 4th quarter in mop up duty, and found Chris Rhone for a 32 yard TD pass, his only catch of the game. CCU outgained Ark St 557-203, picked up 26 first downs, and forced 2 Warhawk turnovers. Chandler Rogers (9/17 100 1 INT) could get no offensive rhythm going for ULM, who was held to just 2 Calum Sutherland field goals. Meanwhile Arkansas St lost a 59-33 shootout to Georgia Southern last week at Allen E Paulson Stadium. The Eagles ran for 503 total rushing yards and 7 TD, including 2 each by Logan Wright (10-208 20.8 2 TD) of 59 yards to open the scoring, and later for 41, and Jalen White (14-157 11.2 2 TD) of 59 and 47, both in the 4th quarter. Georgia St outgained Arkansas St 540-534 but finished plenty more quick strike drives with end zone trips, and forced 5 Redwolves turnovers despite only producing 20 first downs to Ark St's 33, and losing the TOP battle 31 minutes to 29. James Blackman (28/43 292 2 TD 3 INT) was clearly not at his best with most of his passing yardage coming with the game well in hand and others ending with careless picks. Layne Hatcher (8/18 151 2 TD 1 INT) was marginally better in terms of control but not so much in accuracy. Arkansas St's bread and butter is not so much running the ball as they were held to just 91 total yards rushing. Corey Rucker (7-71 2 TD) was one of the few bright spots for Ark St, but the Georgia St defense was all over Blackman early sacking him 5 times out of their 7 overall.

McCall (69/86 1113 10 TD 1 INT) has certainly surfaced as most might have thought before the season started. At nearly 80% accuracy thus far and plenty of time in the pocket for him to find one of his primary targets make CCU one of the bonafide threats to easily run away with the Sun Belt title and a prestigious bowl bid to go along with it. Javon Heiligh (24-499 4 TD), along with Likely (19-281 4 TD) is a scary one two punch when it comes to the dominating receiving core for McCall to choose from. Kameron Brown (12-191 1 TD0 is also a viable third option, al be it more out of the flat for this passing unit which produces on average about 280 yards through the air. This offense averages better than 48 points per contest, and equally does a good amount of damage ranked 15th in the country on the ground. White (53-374 7.1 6 TD) and Bennett (30-263 8.8 4 TD) completes this chock full of nuts offense for head coach Jamey Chadwell to pick his poison. Other than an opening win to Div 1-AA Central Arkansas as their in-state rivals, this nationally ranked opponent continues to not bode well as the Red Hawks defense allows 565 total yards, near the bottom of the barrel, and 46 ppg while dropping 4 straight. Elery Alexander is the leading tackler with 37, and has a sack and INT each. However, Kevon Bennett and Joe Ozougwu have 4 sacks each of their team's 10. Lacking in their pass defense is just 5 INT's thus far, so corner like Samy Johnson and safety Antonio Fletcher are going to have to step up in coverage.

Blackman (102/173 1264 8 TD 4 INT) endured one of his rare but subpar performances against CCU and probably thus far this season. However, with a 2 QB operation complementing Hatcher (49/79 621 7 TD 2 INT), the Red Hawks do have some versatility under center and especially in their receiving core. Corey Rucker (28-458 6 TD), Jeff Foreman (22-355 2 TD), and Te'Vailance Hunt (24-308 2 TD) are all solid options for the aforementioned two, and because they like to use a phonetic pace, while they can score quick, no lead potentially is completely safe. What they do not have in their benefit to fall back on is any identity or close to a running game. Three different backs have barely over 100 yards but Ark St has rushed for just 2 TD all season, and they are near the bottom in the nation averaging only 94 rushing yards overall per game. CCU meanwhile, is quite preserved and sound in their secondary, yielding just 132 passing yards per contest, which ranks a healthy 10th in the country. Their defense gives up only 14 points and 283 yards on the net average. They have an overall fierce front led by Silas Kelly (34 tackles) and Teddy Gallagher (31 tackles) with the latter producing 3 sacks. Josaiah Stewart is also stout up front with 4 sacks and 13 tackles. If there's an achilles heel that could use more anticipation and pressure against opposing QB's, CCU has recorded only one pick thus far. Still , their explosive offense paves the way to make it difficult for the opposition to come back as they love to control tempo and provide dominance with the mix of the pass and run.

With the defenders giving up a huge advantage in the secondary and on the line, with the exception of Buffalo, you can only ask for a valiant effort stopping a powerhouse like CCU. There will be problems brewing for Arkansas St on the defensive side of the ball, especially the fact that you're second worst overall against the run. McCall doesn't make too many mistakes either through the air. Granted, Blackman wasn't nearly as solid as he is used to being as evident in his performance against Georgia Southern, but Coastal Carolina defensively will be even a bigger test. McCall didn't even need to do too much against UL Monroe except to hold his perfection. Blackman is going to have to match completion for completion, and TD for TD, because despite his versatility, it is going to take a herculean, mistake free performance just to stay close to Coastal, let alone any chance of pulling off an upset.

Back with more in a couple of days.
 
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jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
SMU -13 over Navy -120:
Well we finally caught a break in our favor last night as a once 31-0 lead for the Chanticleers became a bit cozy for comfort shrinking to 38-20 at one point. However, CCU used two huge breakout rushing TD's over the last 13 minutes to ensure a cover winning by 32 points over that swiss cheese defense as Walt Frazier liked to use. Let's see if we can capture another win tomorrow in Baltimore.

The unbeaten Mustangs (5-0 1-0) head to Memorial Stadium to play an AAC showdown against Navy (1-3 1-1). Last week, Tanner Mordecai (29/42 301 4 TD 1 INT) set the tone early throwing one of his 4 scores to Reggie Roberson (5-54 1 TD) Jr for a 21 yard TD and the Mustangs ran for 165 yards as a team to trounce South Florida 41-17. Mordecai also turned it up in the second half as the Mustangs scored 24 of their 41 points as he hooked up with Rasheed Rice (8-71 1 TD) for a 10 yard TD, and 2 4th quarter scoring passes of 4 and 5 yards to Danny Gray (7-74 2 TD).Tre Siggers (20-86 4.3 1 TD) added a 13 yard scoring run, and Blake Mazza was successful on both of his chip shot field goal attempts. SMU outgained USF 463-336 and produced 30 first downs. The SMU defense prevented Timmy McClain (14/22 223) from throwing any TD passes, so the Bulls relied primarily on the running game. Jaren Mangham (11-21 1.9 2 TD) scored both of his TD runs from one yard out and Spencer Shrader added a 29 yard field goal. Jimmy Horn Jr. (5-102) had an overall decent game for USF but twice SMU stopped the Bulls on 4th and long conversion attempts with a sizeable lead. Meanwhile, Navy rallied from 17 points down to pull the upset on UCF 34-30 thanks to a 4 yard TD run by Issac Ruoss (21-84 4.0 1 TD) with 2:00 remaining in the game. Team defense played a huge role for the Midshipmen allowing just a TD to one of the highest scoring team in the country. Carlinos Acie (11-85 7.7) led a Navy rushing attack that produced 348 yards and 3 total TD on the ground. Tai Lavatai (21-57 2.7 2 TD)scored from a yard out to bring the Middies within 3 midway through the 4th quarter. UCF punted twice in the final 10:00 and also failed on 2 4th down attempts to allow the heroics from Ruoss late. Most of Mikey Keene's (16/26 178 2 TD 1 INT) success occurred in the first half. Brandon Johnson (4-79 2 TD) caught a scoring pass from Keene of 15 yards to open the scoring. Johnson caught another score from 23 yards out midway through the second quarter, but despite Joey Gatewood (4-20 5.0 1 TD) and Amari Johnson (3-17 5.7 1 TD) both scoring on the ground in the first half, Navy extinguished UCF's aerial attack for most of the second quarter on.

The discussion regarding the Heisman surrounding Mordecai (127/181 1569 24 TD 6 INT) is certainly heating up since SMU possesses one of the more explosive CFB passing attacks in the nation. SMU is ranked 22th in the country averaging 35 passing yards per game, 12th overall with 533 total yards, and 43 ppg. They are very well balanced in the running game too, where they average about 219 yards in average led by Ulysees Bentley IV (53-403 7.6 2 TD) and Siggers (72-343 4.8 1 TD). Gray (27-432 7 TD) has been Mordecai's primary target when it comes to the receiving core as the team leader in TD. Rice (22-298 6 TD) and Roberson Jr. (22-265 3 TD) are viable second option playmakers who complete a mighty dangerous aerial attack who play hurry up to try and neutralize their opponents early. Navy has had their issues defending the run and are probably lucky that other teams haven't used that platform in terms of dominance, though they face a huge test this weekend. The Middies limit their opponents to 212 passing yards per game but are going to be playing coverage in the secondary this week for the most part. Diego Fagot leads Navy with 40 tackles but also the team hasn't gotten to the QB well with just 5 sacks. They like to load the box in short yardage and early running downs, but with Mordecai under center and behind a well protective line to operate, Nicholas Straw and Taylor Robinson may have to stay at home and try to defend a speedy SMU receiving core, one thing to date that the pass opposition already knows will not be an easy task.

The letdown factor for Navy is certainly imminent this week after last week's upset. Sure it can be challenging to defend the triple option, but Navy is never in any hurry slowing down the tempo and milking the clock. While that's the right approach against the Mustangs who love to put up points in a hurry, may need to be a little more vigilant on offense before this tilt turns one sided. Navy averages just 16 points per game, and are near the bottom in the passing game, while their much frequently used running game isn't much better, a rarity in disparity. Navy has averaged only 38 passes all season, so Ruoss (51-211 4.1 2 TD) will have to earn plenty of touches behind a suspect line not giving the Middies much of an opportunity to run a successful triple option. They have just 6 rushing TD against their opponents 13. SMU's rushing attack is fairly decent on paper, but excellent against a team like Navy, yielding only 131 yards on average on the ground. Their pass defense is clearly their weakness giving up about 290 overall on average despite giving up only 22 points per contest. Unless Navy has some trick plays up their sleeve, Sonny Dykes isn't going to have much trouble and may want to experiment putting an extra secondary defender middle or behind the front 7.

Mordecai with the superior receiving core against this defense could do things early and often to turn this game ugly early. Navy's defense allows 33 points per game and given the disparity of talent and athleticism SMU could be up for a lot more when the smoke clears. A glaring weakness is the 14 rushing TD they have surrenders, nearly 3 per game and not even at the midway point of the season. Mordecai will be up and ready to pounce on the Midshipmen, with not much security to keep the game close unless they can make a second straight statement against a nation superpower to wear down the clock, and to succeed with the option. SMU's defense will have to be prepared for a lot of 4th down conversion attempts, but short fields are poison against the Navy defense.

Best of luck however you play!

YTD 4-7 .364 -4.20 (including CCU last night)
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
Damn sick to my stomach. Mordecai better get his head out if his ass. I didn't plan on special teams barely keeping me in the game.
 
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