JIMMY THE GREEK SAYS

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
Liberty -32.5 over UL Monroe:
The Flames (5-1) continue to flourish as one of the nation's top Independents, and last week they lambasted MTSU 41-13 at Williams Stadium. Joshua Mack (14-91 6.5 1 TD), Malik Willis (16-80 5.0 1 TD), and TJ Green (4-30 7.5 1 TD) each ran for one yard TD's as the Flames went on to rush for a total of 227 yards against a depleted Blue Raiders defense. Willis (17/30 222 2 TD 3 INT) threw both of his scores in the first quarter, one to Demario Douglas (6-154 1 TD) from 35 yards out, and the other to Jerome Jackson (2-8 1 TD) from 5 yards out. Willis however did throw 3 picks in the game as the Flames did commit 4 turnovers, but Liberty's defense forced 3 of their own and were able to halt MTSU drives successfully. Chase Cunningham (22/42 230 2 TD 1 INT) didn't play badly, but the Blue Raiders were held to just 35 rushing yards overall. Jimmy Marshall (7-77 1 TD) helped get Middle Tennessee on the board catching a 7 yard TD pass from Cunningham to cut Liberty's lead to 21-7 late in the first half, but by the time Mack caught a 2 yard TD pass, the Flames built a 34-13 lead midway through the third. Liberty outgained MTSU 449-265, and produced 21 first downs. TreShaun Clark also sacked Cunningham twice as he surrendered 4 total sacks, MTSU fell to 2-4 and is thus far winless in CUSA in 4 tries. Meanwhile, UL Monroe (2-3 1-2) dropped their second straight game overall to Georgia St 55-21 last week at Malone Stadium. Darren Grainger (18/25 230 4 TD) had quite a field day against the UL Monroe defense throwing a pair of TD each to Ja'Cyalis Credle (7-130 2 TD) of 31 and 38 yards, and Aubry Payne (6-58 2 TD) of 10 and 9 yards. The Panthers also got 3 rushing TD, one each from Grainger himself (12-84 7.0 1 TD), Tucker Gregg (15-83 5.5 1 TD), and Jamyest Williams (12-67 5.6 1 TD). The Panthers raced out to a 28-7 halftime lead and racked up 572 yards to the Warhawks' 359 for the entire game. The Panthers defense also forced 3 turnovers including 2 ULM lost fumbles. Chandler Rogers (15/23 208 2 TD) played well just not at the same phonetic pace as their opponents, plus he was sacked 4 times.

Willis (93/137 1327 13 TD 3 INT) has done a great job leading the Flames to their 5-1 first half start and likely will lead Liberty to another bowl appearance. Hugh Freeze and company led Liberty to the Camping World Bowl last season and a 37-34 upset win over then 12th ranked Coastal Carolina. Willis is also one of the more nimble QB's in the country as evident of his (82-498 6.1) 7 rushing TD's averaging about 83 ground yards per contest. Douglas (33-531 4 TD) is considered by most a one man receiving crew punch, but second option CJ Daniels (14-268 4 TD) has certainly made a name for himself as well. Joshua Mack (68-266 3.9 3 TD) is also the lone setback in the backfield when Willis is not calling his own number. Liberty has a great mix of run and pass plays and averages better than 35 points per game. They run for nearly 200 yards and pass for about 250, so opposing defenses need to be on their toes attempting to stop clipboard over the middle and sideline passes to Douglas and Daniels, plus their quick operational runs in getting to the line of scrimmage is tough to prepare for. ULM on defense is one of the more vulnerable units both against the run and pass, allowing to the tune of nearly 469 yards allowed and over 300 per contest given up by virtue of the pass. They allow 37 points per game and one of those games was in a win where they gave up just 7 points to lowly Jackson State despite an upset against Troy 29-16 earlier this season. LB's Traveion Webster and Adam Sparks are tied for the lead in tackles with 37. Ty Shelby has 6 of his team's 11 sacks to lead the bunch. However, the Warhawks have forced just 3 picks all season, while CB's Mark Williams and Josh Newton have been vulnerable to give up big plays in blown coverages and the secondary. Because Wills has been so accurate and relatively mistake free that the pass defense could be in for another long day given the fact the Flames can cause headaches to prepare.

Rogers (28/50 365 2 TD 1 INT) has only filled in thus far 2 games since taking over for Rhett Rodriguez (35/63 337 1 TD) who suffered a lung injury against Troy. It's yet to be seen how Rogers will fare long term but when he is in trouble in the pocket he needs to do a better job at getting rid of the ball on account he's already been sacked 8 times, Boogie Knight is his primary target (21-261) and Zach Jackson (13-192 2 TD) in shorter settings. However, UL Monroe all season has just 4 passing scores, and what's left of their rushing attack hasn't fared much better with only 2 TD's on the ground. Andrew Henry (51-204 4.0 1 TD) has not been able to get a good first step against opposing tighter defensive lines resulting in minimal gains from the line of scrimmage. Rogers has virtually no running game to lean on so his diversity is severely limited. The offense lies very close to the basement in the country scoring just about 15.6 points per game including a net of only 238 scrimmage yards, Liberty has a balanced overall defense yielding just 265 yards total and gives up a tad over 14 points per game, not bad for an up tempo team who likes to set the tone early with their quick pace. Storey Jackson has a team leading 43 tackles and is pretty quick off the snap considering he already has 3 sacks along with 2 picks. Kensy Charles, whether he stays at home or has the ability when necessary to stay at home or use his fierce rush has a team leading 5 sacks of his team's 20.

Sure this might be a boatload of points to give up especially on the road. A glaring aspect of this disparity is that a Flames team of this juncture is willing to put the game away early while UL Monroe certainly prefers to slow down tempo without the necessary weapons to stay on the field when it comes to winning defensive battles defensive battles attempting to stopping the opposition. If Liberty does pull it's starters, yes it's understood that the back door factor could be in effect, but from what ULM has shown their lack of interest in getting blown out seems to dwindle on that their personnel is only looking to let time tick down as an escape without much of a fight. Terry Bowden is going to have to motivate his squad by making plays on defense early, and to hope for short fields getting any opportunity to score early just to keep an arm's length. Willis and company will do plenty of damage for at least 3 quarters to have enough firepower to wear down the Warhawks.
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
UTSA -16.5 -120 over Rice:
The undefeated Roadrunners (6-0 2-0) out of CUSA head back home to take on Rice (2-3 1-0) from the Alamodome. Last week, UTSA had to hold on before knocking off Western Kentucky 52-46 in a CUSA shootout. A 43 yard TD pass from Frank Harris (28/38 346 6 TD 1 INT) to De'Corian Clark (7-160 3 TD) proved to be the game winner in the 4th quarter. Clark had also caught scoring passes of 30 yards to open the scoring and 18 yards in the third quarter in a back and forth high scoring contest. Harris even hauled in a 23 yard TD himself thrown from Joshua Cephus. Cephus wound up catching 8 passes for 83 yards and a TD. It was a career day for Harris who also connected with Tykee Ogle Kellogg, his only catch for a 15 yard score. Sincere McCormick (23-120 5.2) ran the ball well for UTSA despite not finding the end zone. Both teams committed 3 turnovers, WKU outgained UTSA 670-564, but Clarence Hicks (38/60 523 5 TD 1 INT) was picked with 2:21 remaining in the game, ending all hopes of a WKU comeback. Jerreth Sterns (16-195 2 TD) put up career best in both catches and yards, as both of his scoring catches were from 3 and 20 yards respectively. Mitchell Tinsley (5-102 1 TD) kept Western Kentucky in the game with a 40 yard TD catch cutting the deficit to 42-37 at the end of the third quarter. Adam Cofield (9-65 7.2 1 TD) help lead a Hilltopper rushing attack that gained 150 total yards but it wasn't enough. Meanwhile, Rice is coming off their bye week. Their last game Oct 2 against Southern Miss resulted in a 24-19 victory. Jake Constantine (16/22 192 2 TD) threw a 39 yard TD pass to Jake Bailey (5-83 1 TD) to open the scoring and later found Robert French on a 19 yard scoring pass to open the third quarter, his only catch of the day. Cedric Patterson III took his only carry 38 yards to the house giving the Owls their biggest lead of 24-7, and they held on late. Christian Van Sickle added a 41 yard field goal. The Rice defense brought the head against Jake Lange (23/37 304 1 TD 3 INT) and forced 5 Golden Eagles turnovers. They also limited the Southern Miss rushing game to just 57 yards overall, and in the process sacked Lange 6 times. Jason Brownlee caught 8 passes for 127 yards and Cameron Harrell returned a kickoff 95 yards for a TD, but the Golden Eagles had an opportunity to take the lead late after being down 17, but Lange was picked inside the red zone by Naeem Smith.

This will be our second crack of the season in going with UTSA, as they looked lackluster in a 24-17 home win over UNLV. a few weeks ago. Today we will give them another shot. Harris (127/182 1475 12 TD 3 INT) has clearly thrived in execution on offense despite the Roadrunner defense not exactly doing their job in keeping things too close for comfort on the winning side. Completing nearly 70% of his passes, he has multiple weapons in his receiving core led by Cephus (42-457 3 TD) and Zakhari Franklin (37-447 4 TD) as a main dual threat. However it should be noted that Sincere McCormick (155-661 4.3 6 TD) is a one horse wrecking crew in the backfield and is dangerous off his first step providing blazing speed when he gets free. UTSA is very diversified in it's offensive set and when they hit the acceleration pedal can be explosive with even a few tricks up their sleeve when Jeff Traylor has confidence in his bunch. Harris could use a few more weapons in the backfield, but this aerial offensive attack is ranked 40th in the country in passing averaging 287 yards through the air. Rice's achilles heel has certainly been their defense, where they yield 41 ppg and allow 445 yards per game, including 250 in passing on average, easily in the bottom half in the country. Antonio Montero is a beast with 39 tackles and 2 sacks as is Ikenna Enechukwu with a team leading 4 sacks. George Nwakwoi has 3 of his team's 8INT's. However, Rice has a tendency of giving up big plays in the secondary when the opposition acts fast. Trey Schuman and Kirk Lockhart need to be in deep coverage given UTSA's playmakers can do damage in limited time when the pass offense of the Roadrunners is clicking.

Constantine (46/60 543 3 TD 1 INT) has since been solid since taking over for Luke Mccaffrey under center. In his arsenal though it's slim pickens with only Bailey (21-232 1 TD) and Patterson III (10-207 1 TD) on his depth chart. Jordan Myers (53-244 4.6 5 TD) and Khalan Griffin (47-226 4.8 1 TD) are a dual threat in the backfield, but the Owls are not nearly as amped up on offense as UTSA. They average just 15 points per contest and earlier were blanked by Texas 58-0. Rice does average 350 scrimmage yards per contest but lacks in execution and personnel against even the most lethal of competition. They could get some more opportunities against a less than stellar Roadrunner defense today though. However the main objective for UTSA is to stay undefeated and right the ship when it comes to dominance against the lesser opposition. UTSA is vulnerable allowing 22.5 points per game, but a third of that was basically looking lethargic late against Western Kentucky in a shootout where they gave up 46 despite being in control for most of the game. Rashad Wisdom is quick as a cat when it comes to guarding the line as evident by his 39 tackles, but also has 5 offside penalties. Their unit is very balanced led by 4 sacks each by Clarence Hicks and Trumane Bell out of their 15 overall. A glaring glitch though is that when it comes to one on one coverage they have only 4 team INT's which means avoiding to be vulnerable against the pass, but not to Rice's level. The last few games consistency has been an issue on either side of the ball, so down the road when the competition stiffens UTSA is going to have to score early and often while tightening the defense.

Rice comes in losing 3 of their 4 road games. while dating back to last season UTSA is on a 7 game home winning streak. Rice is just 117th in scoring offense and 125th in scoring defense. Despite posting 2 wins thus far this season, the motivation factor seems to lack in games where they play superior competition as larger underdogs. McCormick and Harris will look to have their way against a very vulnerable Rice defense that hasn't answered the bell all season. Sure Rice showed some resilience holding on last week, but their only other victory this season was to uneventful Texas Southern. With quite a discrepancy of talent in comparison on both sides of the ball, UTSA in the dome should be in control from pillar to post in convincing fashion.


Best of luck however you play!
YTD 4-8 .333 -5.40
 
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