JIMMY THE GREEK SAYS

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
Liberty -36 over Massachusetts:
The Flames (6-2) were riding some real high momentum over the past few weeks until they ran into UL Monroe a couple of weeks ago on the road and scored less points than they were favored. However, they got back on track last week at North Texas taking care of the Mean Green 35-26 at Apogee Stadium. Mark Willis (12/18 217 3 TD) found his accuracy and competitive spirit to battle back from a 12 point deficit as Liberty battled back from a 12 point deficit late, Willis found Kevin Shaa (2-55 1 TD) on a 27 yard scoring pass to tie the game at 7 early in the second quarter. Jonathan Bennett (7/18 88 1 TD) came in looking to provide a spark for the Flames and contributed a 39 yard pass to CJ Daniels (7-130 2 TD) just before halftime to cut Liberty's deficit to 20-14. Willis returned at the start of the third quarter and found Daniels again for a 15 yard score pulling Liberty within 26-21. Demario Douglas then put the Flames up 28-26 with a 72 yard punt return and Willis closed the scoring comeback with a 37 yard TD pass to Shedro Louis, his only catch of the day. Liberty was held to just 45 rushing yards and were outgained by North Texas 454-350. The Mean Green also held a 36-24 edge in time of possession, but Liberty's defense tightened up in the second half when it counted by forcing 3 turnovers. Austin Aune (22/35 212 1 TD 2 INT) started off very strong and accurate but ended with a whimper to the tune of just 6 second half points for UNT. DeAndre Toney (29-73 2.5 1 TD) got North Texas off to a flying start early with a 2 yard TD run to open the scoring, however Toney was pretty much contained the rest of the way. Ayo Adeyi (16-99 6.2 1 TD) gave UNT a 14-7 lead midway through the second quarter thanks to a 42 yard scoring run that initially changed the momentum early but it wasn't enough to pull off the upset. Meanwhile, in Talahassee, Florida State used a dominating defense and a balanced but crushing rushing attack to maul Massachusetts (1-6) 59-3 at Doak Campbell Stadium last week. Jordan Travis (5/10 123) gave way to backup Chubba Purdy (5/5 98 2 TD) who threw 2 second half TD passes, one to Camren McDonald (3-29 1 TD) from 12 yards out and later to Jordan Young, his only catch of the day. The Seminoles also had 5 different running backs score TD's en route to 365 rushing yards, including Jahaun Corbin (11-127 11.5 1 TD) for 29 yards in the second quarter. Jarvis Brownlee returned a pick 70 yards to paydirt that gave FSU a commanding 38-3 halftime lead. The Minutemen were held to a measly 45 yard field goal in the first quarter. UMass committed 4 turnovers in all and were held to just 241 yards in total offense to the Seminoles' 587. Brady Olson (12/27 110 2 INT) was responsible for half those turnovers with the running game not faring much better as FSU won their third straight improving to 3-4 and 2-3 in the ACC.

Willis (121/183 1684 17 TD 6 INT) is beginning to show a little rust over his last 3 games not appearing as dominating as he should over second and third tier opponents. However, Hugh Freeze doesn't appear to be too concerned despite Liberty's schedule looking fairly challenging over their final few games. Liberty ha already clinched a bowl berth and should revamp their recent struggles this Saturday. His two top receivers, Douglas (35-552 4 TD) and Daniels (23-417 7 TD) have been successful playmakers all season long and should only pad their stats after this Sunday in week 9. Did we also mention that Willis (118-647 5.5 9 TD) is also a warrior when it comes to calling his own number in halfback play calling situations? Joshua Mack (81-314 3.9 3 TD, the primary back has not seen as many touches as of late but that should change against an overmatched Minutemen squad. The Flames still average 35 points and 440 yards of offense per contest. While it seems like Freeze and company look to be a lot more vulnerable off to slower starts over the lesser competition, this is their 4th home game of the season and thus far undefeated, they average 45 points per game at home. That does not bode well for a U Mass defense allowing 44 points and 480 yards per game, and that includes just 13 in their lone win at home to Connecticut. Dashon Ross has a team leading 59 tackles and 2 of only 7 team sacks by the Minutemen. Gerell Johnson is second with 48 tackles and has forced 4 fumbles, but U Mass has just 2 team interceptions and are slow in the secondary to make reads on opponents passes. It is definitely going to be a challenge for these corners to make a negative impact on Willis as he is quick and accurate in the pocket to release the ball to open receivers like Douglas, who has thrived on special teams lately, and Daniels.

To say it's been a struggle this season for Olson (81/161 958 6 TD 6 INT) is quite the understatement. Only three receivers have had double digits in receptions this season for U Mass, lead by Rico Arnold (18-255 1 TD). In the backfield, Ellis Merriweather (97-416 4.3 2 TD) is the lone workhorse who has been nothing short of mediocre this season. The Minutemen have averaged fewer than 13 points and 289 yards per game, well near the bottom of the pack in the nation. Their lack of urgency defines their only chance to stay close in any of their games are to burn clock so the other team loses opportunities to score points, but their opposition is so game on both sides of the ball that their lack of ability to score usually results in blowouts from pillar to post when the final gun sounds. Chalk that up to a lack of personnel and talent that the DIV 1-A uses an off the map team like Massachusetts to fill the overall roster of teams. Liberty should keep U Mass off the scoreboard early and often. The Flames allow only an average of 18 points and 281 yards overall per contest. Storey Jackson is one of the best in the country with his 61 tackles and tied for second rank with 4 sacks just behind Kendy Charles with 5. Liberty is among the leaders in the nation with 27 team sacks. Also, 8 different defensive packs have recorded at least one pick. Jackson, Raashard Harding and Javon Scruggs look to dominate Olson and the meek and humble offense with plenty of acceleration and pressure, forcing turnovers as well as 3 and outs, not giving U Mass much of a chance to make this interesting at all.

Yes there will by 5+ TD's to lay here in Lynchburg, but as well oiled and ready Liberty is as they return to homecoming, we feel confident to get past this number in the first half. The only otherwise factor in this one is that they continue to put the pedal to the metal in the second half., is keeping the backdoor tightly shut and closed. Willis should be back to his early season form and it will wind up an ugly atmosphere for the anemic Minutemen, who I'm sure almost wish they could play UConn all the time.
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
(5) Ohio St -19.5 over Penn St:
The 5th ranked Buckeyes (6-1 4-0) are back in full championship mode dreaming about a National Title as Ohio St crushed Indiana 54-7 last week in front of a National Televised audience. Featured again are the Buckeyes as they return home to the shoe to take on Penn St (5-2 2-2) in front of a sellout crowd on ABC. Last week was smooth sailing for OSU as they rode the jockstrap of CJ Stroud (21/28 266 4 TD) who completed 2 each of his scores to Jeremy Ruckert (5-47 2 TD) of 14 and 2 yards. TreyVeon Henderson also caught a 14 yard TD pass, his only catch of the game, and ran for 81 yards on 9 carries (9.0) with rushing scores of 21 and 8 yards out. The Buckeyes led 44-7 at the half and pitched a second half shutout the rest of the way. OSU held a dominating edge in total yardage 539-128 and could have added a lot more to their total had not the rainy conditions been a major factor as well as Ryan Day calling off the dogs. Despite a turnover free game by both teams OSU recorded 6 sacks of Jack Tuttle (4/7 41 1 TD). the Hoosiers lone score was a 7 yard scoring pass from Tuttle to Peyton Hendershot (5-35 1 TD), otherwise James Evans wound up punting 7 times in the game as Indiana could not get any rhythm on offense going all game long. Meanwhile, in a 9 OT thriller, Penn St fell to Illinois 20-18 at Happy Valley thanks to a Casey Washington 2 point conversion from Brandon Peters. Both teams had converted only 1 2 point conversion each from the 3rd OT to the 8th OT until Peters to Washington finally broke the ice. Sean Clifford (19/34 165 1 TD) got the Nittanies on the scoreboard just :09 into the game with a 42 yard TD pass to KeAndre Lambert-Smith (3-49 1 TD). The Nittany Lions were held to just 227 total yards including only 62 on the ground. Artur Sitkowski (8/19 38 1 INT) had one of the worst games of his collegiate career but the Fighting Illini took advantage of a poor Penn St run defense tallying 357 total yards including Chase Brown (33-223 6.8 1 TD) including a one yard scoring run, and Joshua McCray (24-142 5.9). Illinois tied the game at 10 on a 37 yard field goal with 3:11 remaining by James McCourt. Both kickers also scored field goals in the first 2 OT's sending the game into a 2 point attempt frenzy. Penn St gave up 395 total yards but only produced 14 first downs despite forcing 4 turnovers.

Stroud (125/185 1965 22 TD 3 INT) has been one of the most talked about freshman in the country propelling the Buckeyes right back into National Championship contention despite the loss earlier this season to Oregon. Stroud has been rewarded with his playmaker RB Henderson (79-693 8.8 11 TD), one of the more exciting and productive playmakers in the nation. he also has a threeAlso, Henderson headed monster in the receiving core, led by Garrett Wilson (36-605 6 TD), Jaxon Smith- Njigba (29-551 3 TD), and Chris Olave (32-518 8 TD). The Buckeyes average jus a shade under 353 passing yards per game ranked 13th overall in the country. They also average 48 points per game and 563 total yards per contest, tough for even the steadfast of defenses to contain. Penn State's defense gives up an average of about 14.5 ppg and 315 yards per contest ,but will certainly be tested here by Stroud and company. Ellis Brooks leads PSU with 56 tackles and also has a sack. Arnold Ebikiete is third with 42 tackles and leads Penn St with 6 of his team's 16 sacks. PSU an also be tough in the secondary with the right reads considering that Stroud is a freshmen but still in the process is off to an astounding start. Jy'Air Brown has 4 of his team's 10 INT's and could give the Nittanies some hope if he can stay one on one with Ohio St's receiving core. However Jaquan Brisker is also going to have to step up at corner if Ohio St is forced to execute on third and long.

Clifford (137/212 1647 12 TD 5 INT) has done fairly well given the benefit of his arm as well as yards after catch, however his effort and consistent play has not meant that PSU has the consistent capability to finish successful drives. Clifford does have some weapons in the receiving core led by Jahan Dotson (49-552 6 TD) and Parker Washington (32-374 2 TD), but when driving sometimes the credentials are met up quickly by the defense making necessary stops when PSU is in position to pounce. There is limited depth in the running game led by Noah Cain (78-245 3.1 4 TD) as Penn State has just 8 rushing TD all season. Penn State has averaged a pedestrian 28 points per game and has potential to accomplish so much more even against the strongest of competition in the Big 10. The passing attack of Clifford has been well defined averaging 269 passing yards but are at the second echelon of teams and their inability to run the football averaging about 130 yards in the ground game. Ohio State yields about 18.5 points and 388 total yards per game, however over the last 4 contest those numbers have noticeably stiffened up allowing only 11 per game over the last 4.Ronnie Hickman leads the Buckeyes with 54 tackles and 3 of his team;s 10 picks. Haskell Garrett as a tackle on the outside has 5 of his team's 25 sacks. Ohio State has emphasized much more focus on the defensive side of the ball to complement their dominating quick strike offense. We're not saying that Penn State's offense isn't any slouch by means but being fairly limited on the ground and not nearly as explosive as Stroud and company, they will have to slow up the tempo to have a chance to stay close, especially as the game progresses.

James Franklin is going to have to keep his bunch under control, and that means limiting mistakes like penalties that take up long chunks of yardage as well as mental mistakes like turning the ball over. They're not going to be able to win this game by stalling successful drives and settling for field goals as the Buckeyes will strike early and often with big plays by Stroud and company. Stroud and his cast of receivers meant business last week, and Henderson behind a well protected line will continue to do what he does best, and that's gain a large quantity of yards that could et him up for rushing TD's or even be a flat back in the set and catch short tosses for scores when Stroud is under pressure. Ohio State has so many weapons offensively and while Clifford's injury has certainly slowed him down, the Buckeyes clearly step out in class in comparison to Penn State being secondary on both sides of the ball. They should roll here north of the posted number which has seemingly but steadily increased since the opening line.

Best of luck however you play!

YTD 5-11 .313 -7.70
 
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