JIMMY THE GREEK SAYS

[jimmythegreek]

(3) Michigan -31 over Nebraska:
The 3rd ranked Wolverines (9-0 6-0) moved into the top 4 National Championship contention with a couple of games left in the CFB regular season. Michigan ransacked Rutgers 52-17 in Piscataway last week and took advantage with Tennessee and Clemson's losses. Michigan trailed at the half by a field goal but pitched a decisive 38-0 second half including 4 touchdowns in the 3rd quarter. JJ McCarthy (13/27 151 2 TD) was fairly efficient and revamped the Wolverines offense in the second half by throwing both of his TD passes, one to Donovan Edwards (3-52 1 TD) for 14 yards, the other to Cornelius Johnson (3-18 1 TD) for 6 yards. Blake Corum (20-109 5.5 2 TD) and McCarthy (4-6 1.5 1 TD each ran it in from a yard out in the first quarter giving the Wolverines a 14-7 first quarter lead. After going scoreless in the second, Edwards' TD reception fueled a 38 point second half explosion that gave Michigan the lead for good. Corum added a 2 yard run in the third, Michael Barrett picked off Gavin Winnsaft (14/29 166 1 TD 3 INT) and returned it 31 yards to paydirt, and Isaiah Gash (2-6 3.0 1 TD) added a 4 yard run in mop up duty to complete the carnage. Edwards also ran for 109 yards on just 15 carries (7.3) though was kept out of the end zone on the ground. The Wolverines outgained Rutgers 282-14 in rushing yardage and 433-180 overall. The Scarlet Knights (4-5 1-5) turned the ball over 4 times while Winnsaft was sacked 4 times while losing a fumble. Winnsaft gave Rutgers their only lead at 17-14 just before halftime when he hooked up with Sean Ryan (4-54 1 TD) on a 3 yard TD toss. It was Rutgers' 5th loss in 6 games, all via the Big 10. Nebraska is coming off a disappointing 20-13 loss to Minnesota after blowing a 10 point halftime lead. A 49 yard field goal by Matthew Trickett broke a 10 all tie in the third quarter giving the Golden Gophers the lead for good. Nebraska (3-6 2-4) got on the board early when Chubba Purdy (6-24 4.0 1 TD) ran it in from 2 yards out, followed by a 24 yard fg by Timmy B;eekrode for a 10-0 halftime lead. Mohammed Ibrahim (32-128 4.0 2 TD) tied the game in the 3rd quarter thanks to a 3 yard TD run. Trickett had converted a 47 yarder to open the third to get the Golden Gophers to within 7. Ibrahim also added another 3 yard run in the 4th to seal it. Athan Kaliakmanis (6/12 137) was efficient and turnover free and relied heavily on Ibrahim, one of the premiere RB's in the country to lead the comeback. Logan Smothers (5/10 80) was replaced by Purdy (6/16 41 1 INT) who wound up looking rusty all second half long. Anthony Grant (21-115 5.5) lead the Cornhuskers in rushing, but was kept out of the end zone. Marcus Washington led Nebraska in receiving catching 2 passes for 63 yards. Daniel Jackson had 5 catches for 88 yards for Minnesota. The Minnesota defense sacked Purdy 5 times and forced two turnovers.

You had to know that Jim Harbaugh knew what he was doing in the beginning of the season when he named McCarthy (139/196 1615 12 TD 2 INT) as the starter under center. However as efficient as he's been throwing the ball thus far this season, he also can use his legs extremely mobile when he calls the option. The 6'3"200 pounder has averaged 5.2 yards per rush and has 2 TD, but that's what the Wolverines' bread and butter is as they key to their success. Corum (199-1187 6.0 16 TD) is among the league leaders in FBS in yardage and rushing TD, and we all know how dangerous Donovan Edwards is in the backfield (68-458 6.7 4 TD) . Ronnie Bell (41-525 1 TD) is McCarthy's top target and has taken on most of the leg work. Depth may be a concern in the passing game but Michigan has the 4th leading rushing attack in the country averaging 250 yards per game. They rank just outside the top 20 in total offense gaining about 466 total yards and an impressive 42 points per contest. As we get down into the final weeks before holiday games approach and the final playoffs are announced, Harbaugh said it last week after the Rutgers contest that he looks to unleash his teams' will on weaker opponents especially when it comes to making fewer mistakes and attacking with style points, notably in the ground attack. Against a Nebraska team struggling all season not to mention with firing former head coach Scott Frost earlier this season, things in Lincoln have gone as close to rock bottom as they come. The Cornhuskers are plenty vulnerable this season especially when it comes to their 33% success rate at home and away. Their first loss of the season was a loss at Northwestern in England. They have shown improvement over the last 4 games on the defensive side but still allow nearly 30 points per contest. They surrender about 440 scrimmage yards per contest and are in the bottom 20 when it comes to rushing, where they yield 183 ground yards and 258 through the air. Luke Reimer has 68 tackles, Garret Nelson leads the team with 5 sacks, while Tommi Hill and Marcus Buford Jr each have 2 INT's. However the depth chart shows that this unit lacks size and speed giving up big plays early and usual to conference opposition this season.

Nebraska has used a three combo attack this season under center, namely led by Casey Thompson (141/224 2023 12 TD 10 INT) who was having a relatively mediocre season before going down to injury. Chubba Purdy (16/36 91 3 INT) who has looked ineffective through his last 2 games, and now turning since to Smothers. Mickey Joseph has dealt with a lot of injuries on the team, and inefficiency across the board when it comes to underachievement. Lone target downfield Trey Palmer (53-819 5 TD) has become one of the bunches few bright sports but Marcus Washington (24-367) has seen his chances wane without finding the end zone all season. Anthony Grant (177-858 4.6 6 TD) has also enjoyed some success this season but the area that's been a concern all season is a lack of depth. Nebraska averages 24 points per game but are middle of the road when it comes to choosing tempo and urgency especially in big games. They could get up for some but their motivation is largely determined on where they sit as a bowl game is highly doubtful. At 386 total yards per game, they're no total slouches, but the defense is a glaring liability all season that needs some addressing in the spring and summer season before 2023 kicks off. When it comes to Michigan's defense, they reign supreme giving up just 12 points per contest and are ranked second in the country overall and tops against the run surrendering only 72 rushing yards on average. Ivan Pace Jr is among the leaders in tackles with 104 and the linebacker is stout and speedy when it comes to getting involved on a lot of scrimmage plays. He also leads the Wolverines with 9 of his team's 30 sacks. Javon Hicks has 50 tackles and 3 INT's. Jabari Taylor has 4 sacks, while Eric Phillips and Hicks each have a couple of picks.

With a College playoff and a potential National Championship appearance possibly at stake, Harbaugh this season is looking to show the nation why this squad belongs in January. We have had some tough luck this season going with Michigan at 1-2 thus far. If McCarthy is efficient throughout, using his feet and arm to make big plays against a defense which is dually vulnerable, things should go successfully according to game plan. Nebraska has been less than inspiring all season as things went downhill after that surprise on-side kick against Northwestern in the opener. It’s not as flashy or as fun as Tennessee, and it’s not as strong as Georgia, and it doesn’t have the skill of Ohio State, but Michigan is playing every bit as well as anyone in the country. Nebraska doesn’t control the clock in any way and won’t be able to slow this down,

Best of luck to all in week 11
YTD 12-11 .522 -.15

 

[jimmythegreek]

(13) Utah -24 -115 over Stanford:
If there's one team that loves to make statements and run their opponents up, it's who else? The Utes (7-2 5-1). Winners of three straight, Utah is feeling mighty confident when it comes to their possibilities in representing a NYE Bowl matchup. Against Arizona last week at Rice-Eccles Stadium, Nate Johnson (3-23 7.8 2 TD) ran for scores of 9 yards each, and Ja'Quinden Jackson (13-97 7.5 1 TD) had a 2 yard TD run, as Utah ambushed Arizona 45-20. Johnson's scoring run late in the first quarter gave the Utes the lead for good. Cameron Rising (13/25 151 1 TD) was efficient and turnover free connecting with Thomas Yasmin (2-42 1 TD) on a 12 yard scoring pass with the game well out of reach early in the 4th quarter. Utah ran for a total of 306 yards overall and outgained the Wildcats 457-387 overall. Despite committing 3 turnovers the Utes' defense forced 5 overall otherwise the final outcome could've been a lot worse had they converted on their miscues. Jayden De Laura (10/20 159) was mediocre at best and could not lead Arizona to the end zone. Noah Fifita (5/10 72 1 TD) found Tetaiora McMillian (4-78 1 TD) for a 2 yard TD pass and completed a 2 point conversion late. Several of the Wildcats possessions resulted in turnovers inside Utah's territory and 5 more ended in punts. Michael Wiley ran for 64 yards on 6 carries (10.7) but De Laura was also sacked 4 times as Arizona had major trouble holding onto the football fumbling 7 times in all. Meanwhile, Washington State snapped a 3 game skid with a 52-14 blowout win over Stanford (3-6 1-6). Leyton Smithinson scored on his only carry from 3 yards out to open the scoring. Nakia Watson (16-166 10.4) 1 TD) scored on a 41 yard run just before halftime and WSU stormed to a 42-7 halftime lead. Cameron Ward (16/32 176 2 TD) connected on scoring passes of 7 yards to Anderson Grover, his only catch of the game, and a 27 yard TD connection to Orion Peters (3-50 1 TD). The Cardinal accounted for only 2 scores thanks to 2 rushing TD's from Ashton Daniels (7-14 2.0 2 TD). Tanner McKee (23/40 236) didn't commit any turnovers but also could not find the end zone as Stanford turned the ball over 5 times and was outgained 514-337.

Rising (161/240 2006 16 TD 3 INT) has been extremely effective with a solid completion percentage and an even better TD to INT ratio. A lot of Utah's success remains balanced depending on their opponent where they can be dominating as the game progresses. Kyle Wittingham has been getting his players amped up for a PAC 12 run that could put them in position to contend for the conference championship. They have a 2 headed monster in the passing arsenal led by Dalton Kincaid (46-614 7 TD) and DeVaugh Vele (38-485 4 TD). Tavion Thomas (101-452 4.5 5 TD) is the leader in the running game and despite not having the personnel they would like in the backfield, Rising (49-302 6.2 6 TD) leads Utah in TD and does run the option well calling his own number. Utah averages about 39 points per game despite that including a 73-7 thrashing of FCS Southern Utah. They are chock full of offense especially in the rushing game where they average 203 total ground yards, as well as in the passing game where they gain about 256 yards, good for 25th in total offense in the country. They run a methodical approach, but wind up successful especially in the red zone where they score nearly 68% of the time. Efficiency has always been one of Witting ham's keys especially when it comes to opportunity on either side of the ball. Through their losing slide and all season the Cardinal defense has been inconsistent yielding better than 31 points per game. Their passing defense is in the top 40 of the country but they are 7th worst against the rush surrendering 216 yards on average on the ground. Levani Demuni has 53 tacklers to lead the team, and they do get excellent penetration up front thanks to Stephen Herron's team leading 6 sacks of the team's 21. One area Stanford is lacking is at CB and strong safety as they have just 3 INT's all season.

Tanner McKee (193/318 2208 11 TD 8 INT) has shown flashes of brilliance this season but simultaneously has not been able to consistently lead the Cardinal in consistent drives when they appear to be in the game. They haven't been able to muster up any comeback wins despite having a balanced receiver core led by Elijah Higgins (37-453 1 TD) and Michael Wilson (26-418 4 TD) as personnel has been the issue. Casey Filkins (122-478 3.9 4 TD) has been the lone workhorse but the Cardinal need to be more efficient per carry as they don't have that explosive back who can run the offense more consistently especially per carry. Bowl hopes are all but extinguished for Stanford this season. They average about 22.5 points per game and 377 total yards. Utah gives up about 21 points per game but that stat would fare in a lot better had it not been their opening loss to Florida by a point and a hard fought 43-42 win over USC and a 42-32 defeat to UCLA. The other 6 games they've limited their opponents to 20 or fewer points. Cole Bishop and RJ Hubert each lead the team with 55 tackles apiece. Van Fillinger leads the Utes with 6 sacks and right behind him is Karene Reid with 5. They are top 20 in the nation with 23 total sacks. Hubert is also among the leaders in INT's with 3 of Utah's 11, so you can see this team has plenty of depth when it comes to making plays and forcing turnovers with a consistent defense.\

The Utes offense has done its part this season, going for 32 or more points in 7 of the past 8 games, while the defense has thrown a blanket on the opposition in the past 2 outings by allowing just 18.5 PPG. Stanford appears to have waved the white flag and goes in this evening with very little motivation to change that trend. The Utah Utes haven’t lost a home game since November 2020 and aren't expected to lay down this time around as they hope to break the top 10 and play deeper into the postseason. Stanford is just 1-6 in the PAC 12 and the same mark in their previous 7 games ATS. Turnover margin is a massive issue for the Cardinal – -12 on the year – and Utah has taken the ball away multiple times in six of the last eight games. The bigger problem is a non-existent run defense that got ripped apart for 630 yards and eight scores against UCLA and Washington State over the last two games. The Cardinal will move the offense a little bit, but it won’t be nearly enough to keep up with a Utah attack that will be too balanced and too effective up front.

 

[pro analyser]

Why I hate fav and won't play them Your team wins by 31 and you still don't win. Rule of fav: If you like one play it early in the week. Line opened 28'.

 

[jimmythegreek]

I played some 30.5 under daily thread for best bet. So actually I did get to cash a little. Still disappointed though that it could've been more. Should've waited.

 

[pro analyser]

Didn't like your chances after the first quarter down 7-0. Thought the game was over. No problem 42-0 over the next 3quarters gives jimmy an easy win.

 

[jimmythegreek]

Didn't like your chances after the first quarter down 7-0. Thought the game was over. No problem 42-0 over the next 3quarters gives jimmy an easy win.

Almost felt like I was watching the same game. Utah is a very good second half team. 1-0-1 is not terrible but technically should've been a sweep given the line sinking. I usually buy off 31 too but I don't care if forum gets pissed that I do when I choose to.