The opening odds start here
Because of the Thanksgiving Holiday I like to post these early and add a bonus selection. These will be the final writeup of the season but will probably have a pick or two going into Championship weekend. It has been quite a tough year between going into the hospital with a bone infection, coming down with COVID and my moms' passing last week. Hope to end what has been an up and down inconsistent season with a couple of wins.

UCF -19.5 over USF:
A win by the Knights (8-3 5-2) this weekend will all but likely assure UCF of clinching an NYE6 bowl. Despite coming off a 17-14 loss to Navy in week 12, UCF has played some of it's better football of late winning 3 of their last 4. Bijan Nichols' 45 yard field goal with just under 2:00 remaining in the third quarter broke a 14 all tie for Navy, who ultimately ended UCF's 3 game winning streak. Xavier Airline, who only attempted one unsuccessful pass, ran for 24 yards on 18 carries (1.3), got the Midshipmen on the board with a one yard scoring run in the first quarter. Colton Boomer got the Knights within 7-6 after successfully making two field goals of 21 and 31 yards respectfully in the second quarter. However, Vincent Terrell (8-41 5.1 1 TD) increased Navy's lead at halftime to 14-6 thanks to an 8 yard scoring run. UCF's plan of using a dual QB system finally showed signs of succeeding when Mikey Keene (8/15 123 1 TD) found Javon Baker from 28 yards out followed by a 2 point conversion to deadlock the game at 14 early in the third quarter. The game ended scoreless in the 4th quarter giving Navy just their 4th win of the season (4-7 4-4). Both defenses seemed to play chess games in the final stanza but Gus Malzahn failed to convert two fourth down attempts in the final 6:00 of the game. Navy played a turnover free game while UCF committed 3 costly turnovers with the game in the balance despite outgaining the Middies 314-248. Meanwhile, at Skelly Field at HA Chapman Stadium, Deneric Pierce (26-220 8.5 2 TD) ran for scores of 10 and one yards out, and Steven Anderson's one yard scamper to paydirt gave Tulsa (4-7 2-5) the lead for good in a 48-42 win over USF (1-10 0-7). Anderson ran for 26 yards on 6 carries (4.3) and the Golden Hurricane tallied 5 rushing TD in the win thanks to two more from Braylon Braxton (8-20 2.5 2 TD). Braxton (20/27 302 1 TD) also connected with Keyton Stokes (6-145 1 TD) on a 31 yard scoring pass that extended Tulsa's lead to 21-13. Byrum Brown (21/25 240 3 TD) did all he could to keep the Bulls in the game throwing scoring passes to Sean Atkins (9-115 1 TD), of 18 yards. 20 yards to Chris Mottillio (2-33 1 TD) that gave USF an early 10-0 lead, and a a 17 yard score to Jayson Littlejohn, his only catch of the day. Tulsa outgained South Florida 573-499 and produced 26 first downs, but also forced 3 turnovers and held ground on the last 2 4th down conversion attempts in the 4th quarter by USF. Brian Battie (19-169 8.9 1 TD) and Brown (12-76 6.3 1 TD) each rushed for TD runs of 21 and one yards respectively, but in the end it wasn't enough to pull off the upset.

The combination of John Ryhs Plumlee (167/264 2122 12 TD 7 INT) and Mikey Keene (45/64 518 4 TD 1 INT) has proved to be successful although many expected the former to put up more solid numbers to date. Injuries have unfortunately played a part in the execution of the former. However, Plumlee (128-715 5.6 9 TD) does lead the Knights in rushing and right behind him is RJ Harvey (91-659 7.2 4 TD) and Isaiah Bowser (158-621 3.9 13 TD) who leads UCF in rushing TD. Javan Baker (47-659 5 TD) and Ryan O Keefe (61-645 4 TD) are his top targets. UCF averages about 35 ppg and have the 7th best rushing attack in the nation averaging 235 ground yards on average. Their passing attack at 250 yards on average through the air is also fairly respectable in the top 50 overall. That doesn't bode well for the Bull's defense as they allow 515 yards per contest which is 4th worst in the country, also averaging a shade under surrendering 41 points per game. Dwaybe Boyles does lead USF and is among the nation's leaders with 102 tackles, Aamaris Brown has 3 INT's, and Eddie Kelly does have 4 sacks. The problem with the defense is a lack of size up front and depth downfield as USF's secondary has been blitzkrieged through the air. Their defensive backs and corners have been taken advantage on the line and downfield with limited size and speed. If Plumlee and Keene have enough time to throw in the pocket and find their open targets, it will be dejavu all over again for the secondary and upbacks to defend the line of scrimmage.

Brown (23/30 264 4 TD) has been part of a trio of QB's that have thrown for just a 56% efficiency despite 17 TD to 8 combined INT's. Xavier Weaver (53-718 6 TD) and Jimmy Horn Jr (32-501 3 TD) have received the bulk of the work, and Battie in the backfield (157-1042 6.6 7 TD) has been one of the team's bright spots. South Florida are no slouches offensively averaging about 388 total yards and are inside the top 40 in rushing, but most of their damage they can do is when the defense digs them up an early hole that's too insurmountable to catch up for a win. The Bulls average about 27 ppg but are too careless with the ball early and their mistakes usually lead to short fields and come away with TD's in the beginning moments. The Knights have a middle of the pack defense that yields about 354 yards per game, but are slightly better against the run than the pass. Jason Johnson Jr, has 107 tackles and 3 sacks overall, second on the team for the latter and tops in former. Tre'mon Morris-Brash has 7 sacks and is 4th overall with 43 tackles, while Davaad Wilson has all 4 UCF picks.

Look for UCF to stick to the game plan and dominate early. USF's defense will not be up to the challenge being able to contain the combination of Rhys Plumlee and Keene as they will look to steal momentum out of the gate. USF will have to either keep up tempo and match strike for strike against the Knights , or bleed time of possession to keep the powerful UCF offense on the sidelines. I look for UCF to dominate on both sides of the ball and cruise on the road to an easy victory.
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The opening odds start here
Two other plays tonight for week 13.

Alabama -21 -120 over Auburn
Illinois -13 5 -120 over Northwestern

YTD 14-12-1 .536 + 65


The opening odds start here
Well at halftime I would've thought a sweep was in the bag until Plumlee does what he does best ..get hurt and UCF chose not to play anymore. But we will take the 2-1 regardless.