jimmythegreek
The opening odds start here
(21) Army -22.5 over Air Force:
The undefeated, 21st ranked Black Knights (7-0 6-0) are home at West Point for their 3rd consecutive matchup when they host the Air Force Falcons (1-6 0-4) from the Mountain West Conference on Saturday. Now I know this thread is early in the update stages but I do have a pick for later on this week, so as it's best bet it will be first in precedence. Last week Army saw Bryson Daily (31-171 5.5 5 TD) rush for a career high 5 touchdown runs including 2 in the first half of 17 and 31 yards against East Carolina in the first half that prompted the Black knights to a 24-0 halftime lead en route to a 45-28 win over the Pirates. Daily kept the pressure on in the second half amassing 3 more smaller TD scampers, ad also completed 7/10 passes for 147 yards including a 13 yard scoring pass to Miles Stewart (2-21 1 TD) that opened the scoring. Army held the ball for nearly 38 minutes, racked up a 442-369 yardage advantage, and recorded 22 first downs. They also forced 2 turnovers and never trailed throughout. East Carolina did make the final score a bit more respectable in the 4th quarter thanks to a 21 point outburst and with Katin Houser (24/28 282 3 TD 1 INT) with a solid performance, but it wasn't nearly enough as the Pirates fell to 3-4 and 1-2 overall in the AAC. The Black Knights held the Pirates to just 87 rushing yards and controlled the game from the opening gun. Meanwhile, the Colorado St RAms jumped out to a 21-0 lead over the Falcons through 3 quarters and held on for a 21-13 win, their first victory over Air Force since 2002. Avery Morrow rushed for 132 yards on 20 carries (6.6) despite not finding the end zone, but Jalen Dupree (7-40 5.7 1 TD) scored on a one yard TD run from a yard out that gave CSU a 14-0 halftime lead. Brandon Fowler Nicolosi (11/21 178 1 TD) hooked up with Caleb Goodie (3-103 1 TD) on an 85 yard scoring pass that proved to be the game winner. Air Force tried to stage a 4th quarter comeback, but it fell short. John Busha (10/25 175 1 TD 2 INT) fell victim to inefficiency and a lot of receiving core personnel dropped passes. He ran for the only score in a scheme that normally features like Army, the triple option, but Dylan Carson was held to just 80 yards on 12 carries (6.7). The Rams forced 4 turnovers and sacked Busha 5 times iimproving to 4-3 and 2-0 in the MWC.
It's no surprise this Army squad has won their first 7 games out of the gate and are nationally ranked. Their specialty for years has become the triple option and this season are averaging 359 yards on the ground ranked as the top ranked rushing offense overall. They also average 40 points per game thanks to Daily (27/47 629 7 TD) who on the ground (138-909 6.6 19 TD) leads the Black Knights and the country in all ground game categories. Kayne Udoh (93-633 6.8 7 TD) is the other workhorse in the backfield when Daily is not calling his own number. Casey Reynolds (10-293 3 TD) leads the team in receiving when Army is forced to throw for it long on extensive 3rd down conversions, and to his credit, head coach Jeff Monken is keeping the scheme in place during key offensive drives that lead the country as well in time of possession. It's been Army's trademark to go for it on 4th down opportunities, as their defense has proven to be worthy giving up only 12.4 points overall per game. That does not bode well for the Air Force rushing defense which is 120th in the country allowing 194 total rushing yards despite in the top 30 yielding just 188 passing yards. The Falcons have lost 6 straight and while they give up about 28 points per game, it includes their lone win at the opener of the campaign, a 21-6 win over FCS Merrimack. Air Force has just 6 sacks overall this season and have just one interception, so in order for the Falcons to stay close, they are going to have to force turnovers in the opponents rushing game since Army throws the ball the fewest times for the fewest yards overall.
Air Force averages a shade over 15 points per game and is on a 6 game losing streak. They are not the ground and pound force like their armed forces affiliates Army is. Busha (29/79 415 1 TD 5 INT) does not have much of a strong arm and has the lowest completion percentage at just 37% overall in FBS. Quin Smith (10-207 1 TD) is the lone threat downfield, and Cade Harris (38-212 5.6 4 TD) doesn't fare much better in the backfield. The Falcons have the 9th worst offense overall and despite being in the top 30 with 195 rushing yards on average are 3rd worst in the country at 101 passing yards per game overall. Army only allows 80 yards on the ground, third best in the country and also have a respectable pass defense. Elo Modozie has 4 of his team's 14 overall sacks while Casey Larkin and Jaydan Mayes each have 3 interceptions overall out of their team's 9. Army tends to have lots of speed on the line and downfield covering receivers in the secondary. They are going to be a forced to reckon with especially if their offense can chew up time of possessions and convert third and 4th downs into first downs and potential scores.
The Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy has thrown Air Force and Army together 58 times since 1959, and historically, the Falcons have had the beating of their bitter rival. Despite the 38-19-1 advantage to Air Force, recent history has been more favorable for the Black Knights, who won against the odds a year ago in Denver and tasted victory in five of the last seven encounters. Air Force’s defense is going to have no answer for Bryson Daily and that is going to be the difference here. Army is set to defend their home territory with deadly vigor. Air Force hasn’t covered the spread all year long, and the Black Knights are 6-0-1 against the spread this year with an average margin of victory of 28 points.
I'll have a couple of more games this week including another on Saturday.
The undefeated, 21st ranked Black Knights (7-0 6-0) are home at West Point for their 3rd consecutive matchup when they host the Air Force Falcons (1-6 0-4) from the Mountain West Conference on Saturday. Now I know this thread is early in the update stages but I do have a pick for later on this week, so as it's best bet it will be first in precedence. Last week Army saw Bryson Daily (31-171 5.5 5 TD) rush for a career high 5 touchdown runs including 2 in the first half of 17 and 31 yards against East Carolina in the first half that prompted the Black knights to a 24-0 halftime lead en route to a 45-28 win over the Pirates. Daily kept the pressure on in the second half amassing 3 more smaller TD scampers, ad also completed 7/10 passes for 147 yards including a 13 yard scoring pass to Miles Stewart (2-21 1 TD) that opened the scoring. Army held the ball for nearly 38 minutes, racked up a 442-369 yardage advantage, and recorded 22 first downs. They also forced 2 turnovers and never trailed throughout. East Carolina did make the final score a bit more respectable in the 4th quarter thanks to a 21 point outburst and with Katin Houser (24/28 282 3 TD 1 INT) with a solid performance, but it wasn't nearly enough as the Pirates fell to 3-4 and 1-2 overall in the AAC. The Black Knights held the Pirates to just 87 rushing yards and controlled the game from the opening gun. Meanwhile, the Colorado St RAms jumped out to a 21-0 lead over the Falcons through 3 quarters and held on for a 21-13 win, their first victory over Air Force since 2002. Avery Morrow rushed for 132 yards on 20 carries (6.6) despite not finding the end zone, but Jalen Dupree (7-40 5.7 1 TD) scored on a one yard TD run from a yard out that gave CSU a 14-0 halftime lead. Brandon Fowler Nicolosi (11/21 178 1 TD) hooked up with Caleb Goodie (3-103 1 TD) on an 85 yard scoring pass that proved to be the game winner. Air Force tried to stage a 4th quarter comeback, but it fell short. John Busha (10/25 175 1 TD 2 INT) fell victim to inefficiency and a lot of receiving core personnel dropped passes. He ran for the only score in a scheme that normally features like Army, the triple option, but Dylan Carson was held to just 80 yards on 12 carries (6.7). The Rams forced 4 turnovers and sacked Busha 5 times iimproving to 4-3 and 2-0 in the MWC.
It's no surprise this Army squad has won their first 7 games out of the gate and are nationally ranked. Their specialty for years has become the triple option and this season are averaging 359 yards on the ground ranked as the top ranked rushing offense overall. They also average 40 points per game thanks to Daily (27/47 629 7 TD) who on the ground (138-909 6.6 19 TD) leads the Black Knights and the country in all ground game categories. Kayne Udoh (93-633 6.8 7 TD) is the other workhorse in the backfield when Daily is not calling his own number. Casey Reynolds (10-293 3 TD) leads the team in receiving when Army is forced to throw for it long on extensive 3rd down conversions, and to his credit, head coach Jeff Monken is keeping the scheme in place during key offensive drives that lead the country as well in time of possession. It's been Army's trademark to go for it on 4th down opportunities, as their defense has proven to be worthy giving up only 12.4 points overall per game. That does not bode well for the Air Force rushing defense which is 120th in the country allowing 194 total rushing yards despite in the top 30 yielding just 188 passing yards. The Falcons have lost 6 straight and while they give up about 28 points per game, it includes their lone win at the opener of the campaign, a 21-6 win over FCS Merrimack. Air Force has just 6 sacks overall this season and have just one interception, so in order for the Falcons to stay close, they are going to have to force turnovers in the opponents rushing game since Army throws the ball the fewest times for the fewest yards overall.
Air Force averages a shade over 15 points per game and is on a 6 game losing streak. They are not the ground and pound force like their armed forces affiliates Army is. Busha (29/79 415 1 TD 5 INT) does not have much of a strong arm and has the lowest completion percentage at just 37% overall in FBS. Quin Smith (10-207 1 TD) is the lone threat downfield, and Cade Harris (38-212 5.6 4 TD) doesn't fare much better in the backfield. The Falcons have the 9th worst offense overall and despite being in the top 30 with 195 rushing yards on average are 3rd worst in the country at 101 passing yards per game overall. Army only allows 80 yards on the ground, third best in the country and also have a respectable pass defense. Elo Modozie has 4 of his team's 14 overall sacks while Casey Larkin and Jaydan Mayes each have 3 interceptions overall out of their team's 9. Army tends to have lots of speed on the line and downfield covering receivers in the secondary. They are going to be a forced to reckon with especially if their offense can chew up time of possessions and convert third and 4th downs into first downs and potential scores.
The Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy has thrown Air Force and Army together 58 times since 1959, and historically, the Falcons have had the beating of their bitter rival. Despite the 38-19-1 advantage to Air Force, recent history has been more favorable for the Black Knights, who won against the odds a year ago in Denver and tasted victory in five of the last seven encounters. Air Force’s defense is going to have no answer for Bryson Daily and that is going to be the difference here. Army is set to defend their home territory with deadly vigor. Air Force hasn’t covered the spread all year long, and the Black Knights are 6-0-1 against the spread this year with an average margin of victory of 28 points.
I'll have a couple of more games this week including another on Saturday.
