JIMMY THE GREEK SAYS

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
Buffalo -23 -120 over Kent St:
I can't remember how many times we've gone against winless Kent St (0-11 0-7). I believe this is the fourth and not necessarily all of it in MAAC play. However, Buffalo, (7-4 5-2) looks to hand the Golden Flashes tonight a winless 2024 campaign. This will likely be the second straight season that Kent will go 0 for 8, with Buffalo headed to a decent bowl game if the Bulls can get to 67% this season. Last week, CJ Ogbonna (16/18 250 3 TD) was nearly perfect in a 37-20 beating of Eastern Michigan (5-6 2-5). Halfway through the first quarter, he connected on a 90 yard strike to JJ Jenkins (5-120 1 TD) followed by a 2 point conversion to open the scoring and leading to a wire-to-wire victory. He then in the second quarter found Victor Snow (44-13 1 TD +) on a 9 yard connection to breeze Buffalo to a 17-0 halftime lead. Ogbonna then hooked up with AL Jay Henderson on a 75 yard scoring pass for his only catch after EMU came back to cut Buffalo's lead to a field goal early in the 4th quarter. Henderson also ran for 86 yards on 25 carries (3.4) including a one yard TD run in the 3rd quarter as the Bulls never relinquished their lead. Shaun Dolac then put the finishing touches on the outcome with a 60 yard INT return to paydirt of Cole Snyder (24/33 251 3 TD 2 INT). Buffalo was outgained by EMU 445-398, but forced 4 turnovers and won the battle of the time of possession by 5 minutes. They also head the Eagles to just 70 rushing yards despite Markus Allen (9-187 1 TD) and Terry Lockett Jr (8-122 2 TD) having big games in the receiving core. Dion Crawford recorded a safety and sacked Synder 4 times including once in the end zone. Meanwhile, Kent remined winless losing to Akron 38-17 (3-8 2-5) as Ben Finley (14/29 250 1 TD) accounted for a scoring pass of 36 yards to Jarvis Rush, his only catch of the game. Finley was victimized by several drops as well as sporadic inaccuracy but was able to lean on his running game as Jordan Simmons (11-113 10.3) and Charles Kellom (19-104 5.5 1 TD) each racked up games north of 100 yards. Tahj Bullock (10-35 3.5 2 TD) ran 2 plays in from 8 and 3 yards respectively. Kent got off to a great start as Luke Floriea (3-103 1 TD) caught an 80 yard TD pass from Tommy Ulatowski (12/20 229 2 TD 1 INT) probably the lone bright spot within the first 90 seconds of the game and the only time the Golden Flashes had the lead. It was all downhill from there as Akron raced to a 23-10 halftime lead. The Zips nearly doubled Kent in total yardage (521-287) and recorded 28 first downs to Kent's 9. They also sacked Ulatowski 4 times and held the Golden Flashes to just 52 yards rushing.

Ogbonna (167/295 2051 16 TD 4 INT) has had quite a solid season for the Bulls statistics wise, however Buffalo only has the 100th rated passing game int he MAAC. The issue is the execution as Buffalo has averaged about 27 points per game overall and hasn't had the leverage to rely on the running game. Henderson (153-774 5.1 7 TD) has been a workhorse in the backfield but Ogbonna (98-263 2.7 6 TD) can also been key calling his own number although in shorter situations for the most part. Jenkins (35-533 4 TD) and Snow (43-511 5 TD) have been a clutch tandem downfield as the top targets but have ran routes and on multiple occasions underachieved as playmakers with some key drops stalling numerous drives within their otherwise decent success. The Bulls have won 3 straight and have seemed to alleviate their earlier inconsistencies in the passing game. Kent yields 520 total yards on average and are 116th in the country yielding 257 yards overall per contest and dead last allowing 44 points, dead last in the country.

A 1-21 record over the last 2 seasons is likely to get Kenni Burns fired after just 2 seasons at the helm. 14.5 points per game as well as 234 total yards on offense is not promising when it comes to getting it done. Ulatowski (74/163 1251 14 TD 8 INT) has shown flashes, but none approaching golden status as he is under 50% in accuracy with a conservative approach despite taking chances at times, which is what a desperate team needs to do like Kent. The Golden Flashes have just 2 TD's rushing all season, fewest in the country. KY Thomas (135-549 4.1 1 TD) hasn't had much success and neither have the receivers led by Chrishon McCray (40-705 9 TD) and Floriea (40-650 6 TD) who are Ulatowski's main targets. Buffalo hasn't been exactly a feared foe defensively, 6th last in the country in passing yards allowed (274) and 116th nationwide alone giving up 422 on average. They've allowed 23 points overall per game but with their recent 3 game winning streak are assured of a bowl game.

With the Kent finale taking place tonight, there's not much inspiration involved but also nothing to lose in Burns' likely swan song. Buffalo seems to have found and rhythm and chemistry in their recent play. The Bulls have scored 30-plus points in three straight games. Meanwhile, Kent State has scored 17 or fewer points over the past three weeks. Kent half the time is playing not to lose, which seems like a not so impressive formula to impress the organization let alone the fans, if, who, and how many actually show up to Dix Stadium. I'm sure we have hear quite a few comparisons to their nicknamed stadium in comparison to the team. And then there’s the Kent State run defense. Buffalo doesn’t run all that well, but it keeps on trying. The mass carries didn’t work in the win over Eastern Michigan last week, but they controlled the tempo and have looked solid over their last 3 games in that category. The misery is almost over, but Buffalo will get one more shot to end the season victorious come bowl game time.

I'll have a couple of more selections up for this weekend in week 13.
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
Biggest week of the regular season, one more championship weekend and then the bowls sandwiches after Army/Navy. Still plenty of football left Dell.
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
(10) Indiana -29.5 over Purdue:
If I have to pick my blowouts again, then so be it. This is going to be a very angry Hoosiers team, especially building and given the results of last week. Indiana (10-1 7-1) really had their opportunity to solidify their playoff position but came out flat against an even hungrier #2 Ohio St squad who blew them out. Now it's time for them to take their aggressions out on a pitifully poor Purdue team (1-10 0-8) who is about to take a Big Ten and finish with a double golden sombrero. Last week, the Buckeyes (10-1 7-1) kept their pace in the runner-up spot for the CFP with a 38-15 victory after experiencing a slow start. Will Howard (22/26 201 2 TD 1 INT) tied the score at 7 early in the first half for Ohio St by connecting with Emeka Egbuka (7-80 1 TD) on an 11 yard TD pass. Then Treveyon Henderson (9-68 7.6 1 TD) gave the Buckeyes the lead for good thanks to a 4 yard run with :21 left in the half for a 14-7 halftime advantage. Caleb Downs opened the second half with a 79 yard punt return as OSU really put their stamp on perhaps their most important game of the season knocking off previous unbeaten IU. Howard later found Jelani Thurman on a one yard scoring toss for his only catch, and Howard sealed the deal with a one yard scoring scamper in the final minute. Kurtis Rourke (8/18 68) could not consistently move the Hoosier's offense and was virtually a non-factor when Indiana needed him most. Ty Son Lawton (15-79 5.3 2 TD) was the lone bright spot for the disgruntled visitors opening the scoring with a solid opening drive capped by a 2 yard TD run and repeated the task with the contest well out of reach. Ohio St outgained Indiana 316-153 despite producing only 14 first downs and on the short end of the time of possession. Rourke lost 2 fumbles and was sacked 6 times including 3 by LB Cody Simon. Meanwhile at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Aiden Chiles (15/31 159 2 TD) hooked up with Montorie Foster Jr (4-59 1 TD) on a 7 yard TD pass and connection and later again to Nate Carter (2-32 1 TD) who also recorded a 2 yard rushing TD (9-15 1.7 1 TD) as Michigan St (5-63 3-5) held on for a 24-17 win over the Boilermakers. Kay Ron Lynch Adams (18-85 4.7) gained well from scrimmage despite not being able to find the end zone. The defense forced 3 turnovers, and Hudson Card (26/47 342 1 TD 1 INT) did not play his cards right down the stretch in the 4th quarter despite a valiant comeback in the second half. A 7 yard scoring pass to Max Klare (7-83 1 TD) cut the deficit to 24-17 at the start of the 4th but the Spartan defense held ground the rest of the way. Purdue outgained Michigan St 338-296 but committed crucial turnovers and allowed Sparty to use 33 minutes of possession. They also held the Boilers to minus 4 rushing yards while rushing for 160 yards themselves, leaving themselves one more shot this weekend for a chance at a bowl game.

Stock is still up in Bloomington despite last week's crushing loss for the Hoosiers. Memorial Stadium will be rocking with aggression and emotion as Indiana still has plenty to prove and likely to add it with style points. Rourke, the 6'5 235 lb senior (179/256 2478 21 TD 4 INT) hope to add to his dominant figures in its regular season finale, and Purdue caught them at an inopportune moment. Elijah Sarratt (41-725 6 TD) unfortunately like Rourke, didn't have much of a chance to display his playmaking skills, as did not Omar Cooper Jr. (24-527 8 TD). However, Justice Ellison (137-748 5.5 9 TD) and Lawton (121-587 4.9 11 TD) are the ground game tandem that will look to impose its fury on prey that just has one win all season against FCS Indiana St. Indiana averages 445 yards overall including a middle of the road 168 , 60th in the country. The Hoosiers are 35th overall at 44 points per contest and will look to take advantage of a Purdue defense that allows 38 points per contest overall. The Boilers allow 442 yards overall which ranks 13th worst in the country. Dillon Thieneman has been a pleasant surprise when isolated as a DB leading with 95 tackles while assisting on 6 pass deflections. Kydran Jenkins has 7 of his team's 21 sacks, but Purdue ha only 4 INT this season, 3 by Kyrndrich Breedlove, in an otherwise weak secondary. With the task at hand a must as we approach the CFP, Indiana comes in with a mission to get back to their winning ways especially on offense after sub-par performances the last few weeks at Michigan and Ohio St.

Ryan Walters could be on the hot seat for Purdue if not at the close of the 2024 campaign but perhaps most likely next season if things don't improve on either side of the ball. Card (138/235 1606 9 TD 6 INT) is not one of those fundamental QB's under center to extend or ascertain long successful drives but also has the ability to minimize turnovers despite inconsistent when it comes to execution. Klare (46-649 4 TD) as a TE is their leading receiver, however the achilles' heel for the Boilers were just 9 rushing TD's. Devin Mockobee (124-666 5.4 4 TD) was the workhorse in the backfield while Reggie Love (83-372 4.5 2 TD) was a fair second option. The competitiveness seemed to be lacking all season as Purdue averaged just 17 points per game and averaged about 320 yards overall, 10th worst in the country. This does not play well against an Indiana defense who is 3rd overall in the country allowing just 261 yards on average in total offense. The Hooisers are also the top defensive team against the run surrendering just 76 yards on average. as well as 16 points allowed per game. Cigneti has this bunch disciplined on their heels and looks to execute in the opportune moment. Aiden Fisher is one of the top tacklers in the country with 103 overall. Mikali Kamala is among the leaders with 10 sacks out of his team's 32. Also, watch out for Amare Ferell who is tops on the team with 5 of Indiana's 13 picks.

The good news is that Indiana could sleepwalk through this weekend’s matchup and still win, but that conclusion with so much stake will be well out of the question. Sure I could just as easily concede last week's defeat could be a huge hit to the Hoosier's momentum. No dice there either. Purdue has lost each of its last nine road games. Indiana has covered the spread in eight of its last nine games as a favorite. Purdue has been awful this season and while they did keep last week’s game with MSU close, that is more of an indictment on Michigan State. If you're in black and yellow black and yellow black and yellow as one of the opposed in the stands, you get my drift. Cignetti and company will cover the large number in desperation fashion, ending almost as much misery as Kent State had last night.
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
(14) Mississippi -26 over Mississippi St:
The infamous egg bowl. the team that battles right around Thanksgiving time for the golden egg. The 14th ranked Rebels (8-3 4-3) look to continue their dominance against their interstate rivals, the Mississippi St Bulldogs (2-9 0-7) in the third of 3 conference plays where the shorter is pitching a conference shutout record. Last week at the swamp, Montrell Johnson Jr (18-107 5.9 1 TD) broke a 17 all tie thanks to a 9 yard scoring run midway through the 4th quarter as Florida (6-5 4-4) ensured themselves of a bowl appearance with a stunning upset of then #9 Mississippi 24-17, ending all CFP hopes for the Rebels. Both teams battled neck and neck as third quarter field goals by both teams tied the score through 3 quarters. DJ Lagway (10/17 180 2 TD 1 INT) gave the Gators a 7-0 lead on the first play of the second quarter after a scoreless first when he connected with Elijah Badger (5-87 1 TD). He later hooked up with Jaden Baugh for his only catch of the game from 25 yards out tying the score at 14. Jaxson Dart (24/41 323 2 TD 2 INT) was not at his best but kept Ole Miss in it finding Tre Harris for his only catch, a 43 yard connection and later connected with Cayden Lee (6-94 1 TD) on a 22 yard scoring pass that gave the Rebels a 14-7 lead. The game was equally matched and quite competitive throughout until Johnson Jr's heroics late. ole Miss outgained Florida 466-344 but dug their own grave when it came to taking advantage of opportunities by committing 4 turnovers. including 2 lost fumbles by Micah Davis. Meanwhile, Marcus Carroll (14-61 4.4 3 TD) ran for TD's of 1, 2, and 19 yards respectively as the 23rd ranked Missouri Tigers (8-3 4-3) mauled the Bulldogs 39-20 at Davis Wade Stadium. Brady Cook (15/20 268 1 TD) threw a 28 yard pass to Luther Braden III (7-91 1 TD) to give the Tigers the lead for good early in the 3rd quarter 21-10. Daylan Carnell returned a 68 yard fumble to paydirt to give Missouri the lead early. Nate noel ran for 95 yards on 25 carries (3.8) leading a Tigers rushing attack to the tune of 207 yards overall. Michael Van Buren (16/28 191 1 TD) completed a 11 yard TD pass to Jordan Mosley (2-28 1 TD) to cut the deficit to 14-10 t the end of the first quarter., but that was as close as Mississippi St would get. Devon Booth (12-124 10.3 1 TD) ran for a 43 yard score late, but it wasn't enough. Missouri outgained Miss St 475-338 and held a 24-16 edge on first downs. The Bulldogs have now dropped 9 of their last 10 games.

Dart (235/339 3732 24 TD 6 INT) has put up some promising and top rated passing numbers to still be considered for the Heisman trophy at season's end. The Rebels are averaging 40 points per contest and are second in the country in total offense averaging 563 yards overall. Harris (60-1030 7 TD) has missed 3 games this season due to injury but srtill leads Mississippi in receptions and receiving yards. Lee (46-790 2 TD) is second in receiving yards while Jordan Watkins (37-687 7 TD) is tied for total touchdowns. Henry Parrish Jr (130-678 5.2 10 TD) is the lone workhorse in the backfield for a not too shabby rushing attack that gains about 172 yards overall per contest. Miss St is absolutely peutrid on defense, 5th worst overall surrendering 462 yards of total offense per contest and allows 35 points on average, including 215 rushing. Issac Smith is one of the more proactive and quicker safeties in the league with 116 tackles. However, not nearly as inactive are there outside and inside linebackers, among the lows in the country with just 8 total sacks. The Bulldogs have also recorded only 7 INT's, hence opponents ability to score early and often.

Van Buren (123/224 1606 10 TD 5 INT) is fairly adequate, but has missed 3 games overall this season. Blake Shapen, the original Bulldog starter (74/108 974 8 TD 1 INT) was the original Bulldog starter before bowing out early with a shoulder injury that involved surgery. Buren hasn't been too shabby going forward, but is a step below Shapen whom Jeff Lebby seemed to have higher hopes for. It's not like Shapen disappointed, but the lack of development and consistency has unfortunately shown. Kevin Coleman Jr. (68-814 5 TD) is the lone workhorse downfield, and has done a solid job despite the change in QB. Davon Booth (136-721 5.3 5 TD) has contributed nicely in the backfield for the scrimmage game, but is not one to become a game changer nor finish drives. Johnnie Daniels (102-530 5.2 4 TD) is a viable second option sharing the bulk of the carries. Miss St is no slouch offensively, averaging 27 points per game overall, hgiven the owever it may be difficult to match wits with the Rebels especially at full strength. They also average 382 yards overall and are middle of the road running and passing the ball. Ole Miss only allows 11 points per contest overall and has the 17th rated defense in the country allowing just 302 total yards on average, including second in the country in rushing defense (88 yards). Chris Paul JR leads the team in tackles with 81 and is third with 3 sacks. The tandem duo of Suntarine Perkins and Princely Umanmielen lead Ole Miss with 11 sacks each, and the Rebels are among the leaders with 50 overall. Trey Amos and John Saunders Jr each have 4 INT's tied for the team lead.

While it might end up a disappointment that Ole Miss will mathematically miss a shot at the CFP, their overall showing will likely end up earning a prestigious bowl game as well an extension for Lane Kiffin. Mississippi's passing attack has been dominant under Kiffin's tutelege for quite sometime now, and there is just more than bad blood up for grabs in a rivalry matchup towards the close of the campaign. State has just widdled away their confidence and leverage on the roster and for both sides of the ball. Dart has been dominant throwing many of them for points and completed TD's, and their discipline, especially against the run has given them two clear advantages over the course of the season. These two teams are expected to trade punches, but given the disparity in talent and athleticism, Mississippi should be able to withstand an otherwise formidable offense combined with a porous defense.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone.
YTD including Buffalo 18-11 .621 +4.30
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
Indiana goes on a wicked rampage and shuts out Purdue! If you had the Boilermakers and sixty five and a half points, you lost! Hope your holiday is doing great Warner.

YTD 19-12 .613 +4 20
 
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