Kentucky Derby 2022….

[John Kelly]

Oaks winner Secret Oath is being pointed for the Preakness.

D. Wayne Lukas always keeps things interesting.

Loved the call by Churchill Downs track announcer Travis Stone as Secret Oaks streaked under the finish line last Friday, "Wayne can still train!"

 

[Viejo Dinosaur]

I am old enough to remember Lukas and Baffert battling each other for training titles at Los Al when they both started their careers in quarter horses…

 

[Viejo Dinosaur]

Wonder if Rich Strike skips the Preakness

Rich Strike opting out of the Preakness….wise decision

 

[Viejo Dinosaur]

Secret Oath the filly is in….Lukas rolling the dice

 

[John Kelly]

In most cases, the Derby winner skipping the Preakness is a big blow to Pimlico Race Course.

In this case, the absence of Rich Strike is offset by the presence of Oaks winner Secret Oath.

 

[John Kelly]

Beyer Speed Figures:

Secret Oath in the Oaks - 94

Rich Strike in the Derby - 102

 

[John Kelly]

Yeah I don't see how anyone charting the race by PPs were gonna come up with the winner. I looked at him again afterwards and still see nothing I like about the horse. Great for racing though. I thought Rosario ran a great race taking Epicenter back off the start. I thought Velazquez ran a terrible race going out with the cheap speed. Hi Ho Pimiico. Epicenter should be a big favorite.

Rich Strike improved 18 points on Beyer Speed Figures, going from a last-out 84 to a 102 figure in winning the Kentucky Derby.

 

[blueline]

Rich Strike improved 18 points on Beyer Speed Figures, going from a last-out 84 to a 102 figure in winning the Kentucky Derby.

We already know going in he had the 3rd or 4th best late kick..one basic question....what if he was developing but the synthetic was concealing it with the dirt being his preferred surface?

 

[John Kelly]

And he did have that romping win at Churchill Downs.

A $30,000 claim wins the Kentucky Derby.

Amazing.

Hope all is well with you, BLUE.

 

[blueline]

All is fine...cant resist the autopsy of a race.
2006 KyOaks was my finest grade 1 result....not all that different from this years derby if you compare the scenarios

 

[Heim]

I have to admit, a big disappointment, huge buzz, 30k claimer wins the biggest race of the year,
then out for Preakness.

Maybe that's the problem with racing, they don't know how to market their product anymore or
don't care. Ratings for Preakness would have been huge with 'Strike' in the field.

 

[mr merlin]

I have to admit, a big disappointment, huge buzz, 30k claimer wins the biggest race of the year,
then out for Preakness.

Maybe that's the problem with racing, they don't know how to market their product anymore or
don't care. Ratings for Preakness would have been huge with 'Strike' in the field.

If he wins the Belmont people will always wonder what could have been, they call it the triple crown for a reason, barring an injury you're supposed to try for it.

 

[John Kelly]

If he wins the Belmont people will always wonder what could have been, they call it the triple crown for a reason, barring an injury you're supposed to try for it.

Maybe there's some soreness that his handlers are hiding.

If Rich Strike were healthy, you have to believe those connections would be in Baltimore.

 

[John Kelly]

All is fine...cant resist the autopsy of a race.
2006 KyOaks was my finest grade 1 result....not all that different from this years derby if you compare the scenarios

Looked it up.

I was guessing Pike Place Dancer (1996) before I saw Lemons Forever at 47-1.

I was only off by 10 years.

Biggest-priced winner in the long history of the Kentucky Oaks.

Uncanny similarities to Rich Strike.

Never got a call until deep stretch, made her last start at Turfway Park and broke from the extreme outside post.

Why can't I find horses that pay $96.20?

Just once.

 

[blueline]

to point out how insane the pace was...looking at Trackus the first 1/4 of the PatDay mile all of the horses ran it at under 40 mph......in the 7 furlong stake a couple of races before the Derby all of the horses ran the 1/4 mile between 39.8-39.2 mph.....in the Derby the 3 leaders ran the first 1/4 mile at over 41mph.......the top 12 horses at the first quarter were all moving at over 40mph....insane

 

[blueline]

Maybe there's some soreness that his handlers are hiding.

If Rich Strike were healthy, you have to believe those connections would be in Baltimore.

He could have some issue they are having to deal with on a regular basis........in the post-race press conference they made it very clear how they intentionally spaced his races....thats what made the Preakness so interesting was how would the horse handle short rest......I would want to go to Baltimore but if my trainer said its better to skip it I would be on board with the decision....the Triple Crown campaign can gut a horse.......if I ever got back in the game this I would be calling this trainer.

 

[blueline]

Looked it up.

I was guessing Pike Place Dancer (1996) before I saw Lemons Forever at 47-1.

I was only off by 10 years.

Biggest-priced winner in the long history of the Kentucky Oaks.

Uncanny similarities to Rich Strike.

Never got a call until deep stretch, made her last start at Turfway Park and broke from the extreme outside post.

Why can't I find horses that pay $96.20?

Just once.

The "contenders" all had mediocre FR3s.....I just boxed the good FR3s in an exacta.....it worked out......of course did not use Barbaro to complete the Oaks/Derby double......found a quote from the trainer of the horse on the lead in the derby.....it was from a couple of weeks before the race......he essentially said that you cant take a hold of his horse......a horse going to be free-wheeling it in the Derby.....wish I had put more effort into the race......who knows what might have been.........

 

[John Kelly]

Thanks for sharing, BLUE.

Your mention of Barbaro reminded me of the 2006 Preakness when Pimlico Race Course shamelessly stuffed Barbaro back in the starting gate after he broke through the steel barriers.

I assume Barbaro hurt himself in the gate incident because he was pulled up in the race after shattering his right hind leg in the first 100 yards of thr race.

Pimlico, struggling financially, did not want to scratch the 4/5 favorite from their most profitable race of the year.

I'm speculating the vet on duty gave Barbaro a quick inspection and hastily ordered him back in the starting gate.

Doubt Barbaro was going to defeat Bernardini that day, but the heartwarming Barbaro story should not have ended in tragedy.

The Derby winner should have been scratched from the Preakness to heal his leg injury.

instead, what was likely a minor injury became a black eye for the sport.

Tsk tsk.