Kentucky Derby
- Thread starter MrTop
- Start date
BenoitPaire2
EOG Veteran
Who’s roxy?
My projected odds pre draw obviously:
Omaha beach 4/1
Roaster 5/1
Game winner 6/1
Maximum security 8/1-10/1
Improbable 8/1-10/1
Tacitus 10/1-12/1
After that.. wide open.. tons of horses that will be 12/1 to 30/1
My projected odds pre draw obviously:
Omaha beach 4/1
Roaster 5/1
Game winner 6/1
Maximum security 8/1-10/1
Improbable 8/1-10/1
Tacitus 10/1-12/1
After that.. wide open.. tons of horses that will be 12/1 to 30/1
Roxy Roxborough, one of the first Nevada sports odds "consultants", started Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC).
BenoitPaire2
EOG Veteran
Ah, gotcha
And yeah, I’m going by what I think they go off at
Pretty good shot that Omaha beach is the favorite... can’t see him going off less than $9.00 though.. and don’t see him winning either
And yeah, I’m going by what I think they go off at
Pretty good shot that Omaha beach is the favorite... can’t see him going off less than $9.00 though.. and don’t see him winning either
Drawing the rail would force his supporters to back off a bit.
I loved Omaha Beach in the Arkansas Derby but I'm looking at Roadster for the Kentucky Derby.
Love the huge pools of the Kenticky Derby, hate the randomness of the first turn.
BenoitPaire2
EOG Veteran
I like game winner... Last race seemed like a baffert special to get roadster in the derby. He can 100% make the distance.... I'm not sure roadsters can: a lot of sprinted on the quality road side.
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BenoitPaire2
EOG Veteran
Quality road progeny at 1 3/8 or more: 5/52
Not a horrible %, but much more successful at shorter distances.
Not a horrible %, but much more successful at shorter distances.
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Like Try Try Try said, that's a no vig line. When computing a line for horse racing, with takeout its about 124 points.
WeinketoWarrick
EOG Master
All I know is if Maximum Security wins then Servis needs kicked out of the sport forever. He’ll get public accolades for winning but it would be undeserved.
Rooting hard for Roadster but Omaha Beach would be fine too.
Think Tax, By My Standards, and War of Will are the longshots that are live if they run at their very best.
Rooting hard for Roadster but Omaha Beach would be fine too.
Think Tax, By My Standards, and War of Will are the longshots that are live if they run at their very best.
BenoitPaire2
EOG Veteran
I’ve always heard how bad the 1 post was and to be honest, never bought into it. I figure that speed on the rail isn’t the worst, and if you are a late closer with no speed, it’s not a big deal
The stats say I was wrong.
In the last 29 years, there’s been:
0 wins
1 2nd (Looking at Lee)
0 3rds
2 4ths (Brother Derek in 06, Limehouse in 04)
If you are a stalker or mid pack, you basically have no chance.
Brother Derek came from 14th to get 4th.
Limehouse had a bad start, fell to mid-late pack and ran well at the end just to get 4th
The stats say I was wrong.
In the last 29 years, there’s been:
0 wins
1 2nd (Looking at Lee)
0 3rds
2 4ths (Brother Derek in 06, Limehouse in 04)
If you are a stalker or mid pack, you basically have no chance.
Brother Derek came from 14th to get 4th.
Limehouse had a bad start, fell to mid-late pack and ran well at the end just to get 4th
Jock riding the rail horse needs to make a Kamikaze-like move to gain an early position.
There's a serious element of danger to the first turn in the Kentucky Derby.
There's a serious element of danger to the first turn in the Kentucky Derby.
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been to the horse track under 5 times lifetime....dog track 2 times. Not been there in over 25 yrs. ...those are all Roxy's #'s from twitter.
I used to ask roxy questions years ago in early 90's on the question / odds service he was on " ask roxy "
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railbird
EOG Master
On way home from sandiego tonight i stopped in at oceans 11 in oceanside, iwas playing Plo with track announcer greg wry, he was a great story teller and did some good imitations of other broadcasters, he was written handicapping books, announced for 15 yrs at the new Mexico state fair
Never heard of Greg Wry.
His estimation (two percent of horseplayers turn racetracks into money machines) feels high.
His estimation (two percent of horseplayers turn racetracks into money machines) feels high.
BenoitPaire2
EOG Veteran
So many of those classic horse books at the gambling bookstore in Vegas.
blueline
EOG Master
Tonight marks the opening of the spring meet at Churchill Downs.
First post is 6:00 p.m. CT.
First post is 6:00 p.m. CT.
There's a saying that Horse Racing books are very useful. They make for a very handy door-stop.
Which are worse? Horse Racing books, or Poker books? I've read some poker books that are pure rubbish.
BenoitPaire2
EOG Veteran
By classic, I don’t mean useful
It’s crazy how much technology has changed, but racing is still stuck on the same ideas/same place it was 30 years ago.
There’s some great videos on YouTube of horse racing tutorials from the 80s and 90s. The old fashioned handicappers still have the same exact generic ideas. It’s no wonder the computer guys are killing it now— so much dumb $ is in the pools
Tom Brohamer, author of "Modern Pace Handicapping," was ahead of his time.
His brother, Jack, was an MLB player.
His brother, Jack, was an MLB player.
By classic, I don’t mean useful
It’s crazy how much technology has changed, but racing is still stuck on the same ideas/same place it was 30 years ago.
There’s some great videos on YouTube of horse racing tutorials from the 80s and 90s. The old fashioned handicappers still have the same exact generic ideas. It’s no wonder the computer guys are killing it now— so much dumb $ is in the pools
I believe some of the so-called computer groups are gambling with inside information.
They don't know which horses are "live," but it seems to me they know which horses are dead.
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cheapseats
EOG Master
Baffert got some bad draws.
BenoitPaire2
EOG Veteran
Explain...
Pretty sure he would have taken 5,16, and 17 going in. You want to be between 5 and 16 ideally
BenoitPaire2
EOG Veteran
Damn I was close.
Omaha Beach was spot on
Roadster and Game Winner switched 5-1 and 6/1
Improbable I was a little bit low on...6-1 instead of 8-10
Maximum security and Tacitus were right in the same range I had them.
After that, all but 1 is between 15/1 and 30/1, like I said
Nicely done, BP2.
cheapseats
EOG Master
Conventional wisdom has out to 15 on the aux gate; dont think either entrant has the ability to get out quick enough even with the lower traffic out there.
2019 KENTUCKY DERBY
POST POSITION DRAW
1. War Of Will (20-1)
2. Tax (20-1)
3. By My Standards (20-1)
4. Gray Magician (50-1)
5. Improbable (6-1)
6. Vekoma (20-1)
7. Maximum Security (10-1)
8. Tacitus (10-1)
9. Plus Que Parfait (30-1)
10. Cutting Humor (30-1)
11. Haikal (30-1)
12. Omaha Beach (4-1)
13. Code Of Honor (15-1)
14. Win Win Win (15-1)
15. Master Fencer (50-1)
16. Game Winner (5-1)
17. Roadster (6-1)
18. Long Range Toddy (30-1)
19. Spinoff (30-1)
20. Country House (30-1)
POST POSITION DRAW
1. War Of Will (20-1)
2. Tax (20-1)
3. By My Standards (20-1)
4. Gray Magician (50-1)
5. Improbable (6-1)
6. Vekoma (20-1)
7. Maximum Security (10-1)
8. Tacitus (10-1)
9. Plus Que Parfait (30-1)
10. Cutting Humor (30-1)
11. Haikal (30-1)
12. Omaha Beach (4-1)
13. Code Of Honor (15-1)
14. Win Win Win (15-1)
15. Master Fencer (50-1)
16. Game Winner (5-1)
17. Roadster (6-1)
18. Long Range Toddy (30-1)
19. Spinoff (30-1)
20. Country House (30-1)
BenoitPaire2
EOG Veteran
Neither horse wants to go to the lead though. But can stalk/be patient and settle in the middle/early pack. I’m sure BB was ecstatic with this draw