Making the line for league championship games in NCAAB

O

ouch

EOG Dedicated
Please tell me what I am missing.

There are 5 championship games tonight in college basketball.

In 4 of these games, the odds makers set a line which was immediately bet down anywhere from 3 to 5.5 points.

St. Francis/Robert Morris 145 to 142.

NE/Hofstra 140 to 134.5.

St. Mary's/Gonzaga 149 to 143.5.

North Dakota/North Dakota St. 143.5 to 140,5

Only the Northern Ky/UIC game has stayed about the same. (actually moving by a point in the other direction.

If you check the numbers over the last 5 years, the same thing happens over and over on a regular basis.

And if you are able to bet into the opening number, you have made a killing betting the "Unders."

Why do the odds makers continue to come up short? They must know that the smart money is immediately coming to play the unders.

And yet the lines in the vast majority of these championship games are set way too high.

Why?
 
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John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Hmmm....

I would argue there are fewer instances of late-game fouling these days.

College basketball coaches are far less likely to start hacking with two minutes left in a game as we've seen in years past.

You need a perfect storm for a "foulfest" to begin with more than 60 seconds left in a game.

It still happens, as "Pro" mentioned in the Horizon League tournament, but I don't see it as prevalent as 10-15 years ago.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Three-point shot is farther back this season, too.

Makes it slightly less likely for a late-game comeback.

So the strategy to foul could be aborted by concession.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

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Some neutral sites in the conference championship games, too.

Not much court familiarity for either team.

The Final Four this season will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta) where no basketball game has ever been played.
 
TobyTyler

TobyTyler

EOG Dedicated
i like the over in the NEC final

bet over 142.5 , -110

i don't think Robert Morris can slow pace as much as they would like vs St Francis and their two big scorers. you won't see either of those two in foul trouble either if you get my drift.
 
FairWarning

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
If it’s close in the 2H of these 1 bid leagues championships the games really slow down, especially if a 1st seed is involved. If They lose, most likely they are not getting an at-large bid.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

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FairWarning said:
If it’s close in the 2H of these 1 bid leagues championships the games really slow down, especially if a 1st seed is involved. If They lose, most likely they are not getting an at-large bid.
Click to expand...


So true.

Games sometimes slow to a crawl in high-pressure situations.

And some officials don't like to blow the whistle to decide the game.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
And coaches these days are now more aware that a 4-point loss to a highly-rated team scores a lot higher than a 10-point loss to the same team.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

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Shot clock reset to 20 seconds after an offensive rebound, a rule established this season, slightly helps the trailing team.

Every little bit counts.
 
Sleepy

Sleepy

EOG Master
Pretty much every one bid league conference championship game will get heavy under action due to the strong history of unders cashing.
 
Sleepy

Sleepy

EOG Master
The bookmakers that set the line are some of the dumbest mother fuckers to walk the planet.

They know pretty much every game under 130 will get over action not 99% of the time but 100% yet they still open stupidly low numbers.

I once saw BOL open an Air Force / Navy football game at 58 and within an hour it was bet down to 50. Bookmaker opens it at 60.

A 5 year old with no experience could do a better job.
 
O

ouch

EOG Dedicated
Between 2015 and 2018, unders were 83-44 if you were lucky enough to bang the opening line. But you better have done so in the first 15 minutes, because the line fell like a rock after that. ((for probably 80% of the games).

Again, my question is why do they set the line so high to start with? If it is based on the regular season, surely they know that these championship games are a different kind of an animal.

Teams are generally tired after playing 3 games (sometimes 4) in as many days. If I set a line that produced a record of 83-44 one way or another, I would have to take a look in the mirror.

Somebody here must know a guy in the industry who could answer this.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
ouch said:
Between 2015 and 2018, unders were 83-44 if you were lucky enough to bang the opening line. But you better have done so in the first 15 minutes, because the line fell like a rock after that. ((for probably 80% of the games).

Again, my question is why do they set the line so high to start with? If it is based on the regular season, surely they know that these championship games are a different kind of an animal.

Teams are generally tired after playing 3 games (sometimes 4) in as many days. If I set a line that produced a record of 83-44 one way or another, I would have to take a look in the mirror.

Somebody here must know a guy in the industry who could answer this.
Click to expand...


Good point about fatigue, OUCH.

And let's not forget there's physical fatigue and mental fatigue.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Saw a good YouTube basketball video the other day from former Cornell basketball player Cody Toppert.

He made an interesting point about the two most important offensive skills in one-on-one basketball: dribbling and shooting.

To be a good dribbler, you have to be a dancer.

To be a good shooter, you have to be a robot.

Two different skill sets.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Steph Curry and James Harden are unbelievable at BOTH dribbling and shooting.

Defense is another story.
 
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