Math Models
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High Times
EOG Master
royalfan
EOG Dedicated
Re: Math Models
Ouch. Looks like sometimes the truth strikes a nerve or two. :dancefool
Ouch. Looks like sometimes the truth strikes a nerve or two. :dancefool
High Times
EOG Master
High Times
EOG Master
High Times
EOG Master
Re: Math Models
I wonder if he goes through the neighbors trash to get their 2 for 1 McDonald's coupons?
That's got to be a money maker over time!
I wonder if he goes through the neighbors trash to get their 2 for 1 McDonald's coupons?
That's got to be a money maker over time!
Re: Math Models
Babe you don't win the fights at home, or on the forums. I still love ya! Now go put the lifts in your dress shoes and lets get something to eat. I have been telling you for years.....In the war of words you are unarmed!
Babe you don't win the fights at home, or on the forums. I still love ya! Now go put the lifts in your dress shoes and lets get something to eat. I have been telling you for years.....In the war of words you are unarmed!
Re: Math Models
Most guys brag on the forums that since they know how to model, that they are winners. It doesn't work that way.
Re: Math Models
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sl55
Senior Member
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Re: Bonus play pays better than any model - WVU
WVU is going to get fucked by not fully reading the T&C rules for each book.Most of these fuckers have figured out a way to make bonuses moot.
Ties lose.
No ML dogs.
No parlays,straight only.
on and on and on.
The bonus whore is an endangered species.
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Doughy
2
Re: Math Models
Models are simply put tools to help a handicapper. You still need to pay attention to: weather, injuries, line movement, and a whole host of intangibles that most would find difficult to quantify (e.g. is it Monday Night Football, a Thursday night game, a Saturday night game, does one team historically play bad in cold weather/domes, garbage time stats that distort reality, etc). Even taking all of that into consideration it's hard to win; I can't imagine anyone simply inputting data in their model(s) and out comes winners like a golden goose.
Models are simply put tools to help a handicapper. You still need to pay attention to: weather, injuries, line movement, and a whole host of intangibles that most would find difficult to quantify (e.g. is it Monday Night Football, a Thursday night game, a Saturday night game, does one team historically play bad in cold weather/domes, garbage time stats that distort reality, etc). Even taking all of that into consideration it's hard to win; I can't imagine anyone simply inputting data in their model(s) and out comes winners like a golden goose.
WVU
EOG Master
Re: Math Models
don't listen to the negative posters who are mostly here to stir up trouble. Keep observing and obsorbing :cheers
don't listen to the negative posters who are mostly here to stir up trouble. Keep observing and obsorbing :cheers
LQQKer
2
Re: Math Models
check out these posted NFL plays...all shat out of the back end of a simulation:
http://forums.eog.com/showthread.php?t=323775&page=3
check out these posted NFL plays...all shat out of the back end of a simulation:
http://forums.eog.com/showthread.php?t=323775&page=3
LQQKer
2
Re: Math Models
I can do this without a simulation, as can about 80% of the knowledgeable NFL betters on this or any other forum.
This guy's model is most likely using points over some time horizon like Sagarin.
I can do this without a simulation, as can about 80% of the knowledgeable NFL betters on this or any other forum.
This guy's model is most likely using points over some time horizon like Sagarin.
LQQKer
2
Re: Math Models
Thanks, but certainly not all my doing.
It's a combination of several sub-models, written by four different people (I wrote two sub-models), and combined together...the head of our group says it is the best NFL system he has seen, and he's been in the biz since 1982. I was allowed to post here for fun; all the posts were made after we were down.
Next year we expect the win percentage to drop to "normal" win ranges (55%-63%) and believe the lockout this year perturbed the league and helped our particular methods.
Thanks, but certainly not all my doing.
It's a combination of several sub-models, written by four different people (I wrote two sub-models), and combined together...the head of our group says it is the best NFL system he has seen, and he's been in the biz since 1982. I was allowed to post here for fun; all the posts were made after we were down.
Next year we expect the win percentage to drop to "normal" win ranges (55%-63%) and believe the lockout this year perturbed the league and helped our particular methods.
WeinketoWarrick
EOG Master
Re: Math Models
Obviously most of us would prefer to make our money just winning a good percentage of our straight wagers, but there's always been money to be made in bonus whoring. And for small-time rec players like most of us are, it's a good option if you want to take the time to do it.
We're not all rich geniuses like you, as much as we would like to be. :cheers
Obviously most of us would prefer to make our money just winning a good percentage of our straight wagers, but there's always been money to be made in bonus whoring. And for small-time rec players like most of us are, it's a good option if you want to take the time to do it.
We're not all rich geniuses like you, as much as we would like to be. :cheers
Coach Taft
EOG Member
Re: Math Models
Here is the main problem with being a nickel dicker: it is a waste of time.
For example, I watch 15-20 games on a Saturday, and about 3-10 games Sun-Fri (thanks to tivo), because I enjoy the challenge of picking winners and making money.
Now, I like to "send it in" from time to time, and the information I pick up watching these games does come in handy. I usually do OK at the end of the year, but I am not breaking the bank or anything. It is just a hobby and a good second income.
However, if you are watching all these games and betting very small (I would say 250/game or less is small), you are an idiot with no life. Your time would be better spent finding a good paying job or waiting to establish a BR that makes this "time wasting" worthwhile.
Overall, it is really a joke and a waste of time, all of this "gambling". In college, I was locked in my room Sun and Sat, booking and betting, and I still regret it. Call it lack of vision.
One warning to those trying to full time it: don't bet on credit unless you have a large BR and control. It is the most dangerous trap out there. But, if you must, do it with a good friend who will understand if you are short.
Also, it is better to bet with people that have full time jobs. Those that book with no other source of income, tend to be more ruthless and are really scumbags at heart. Lazy men should be shot anyway or at least punched in the mouth a few times until they wake up from their sleep.
Sorry for the rambling, but the older I get, I am beginning to see that all of this gambling is a flipping waste of life and meaningless for the most part.
Here is the main problem with being a nickel dicker: it is a waste of time.
For example, I watch 15-20 games on a Saturday, and about 3-10 games Sun-Fri (thanks to tivo), because I enjoy the challenge of picking winners and making money.
Now, I like to "send it in" from time to time, and the information I pick up watching these games does come in handy. I usually do OK at the end of the year, but I am not breaking the bank or anything. It is just a hobby and a good second income.
However, if you are watching all these games and betting very small (I would say 250/game or less is small), you are an idiot with no life. Your time would be better spent finding a good paying job or waiting to establish a BR that makes this "time wasting" worthwhile.
Overall, it is really a joke and a waste of time, all of this "gambling". In college, I was locked in my room Sun and Sat, booking and betting, and I still regret it. Call it lack of vision.
One warning to those trying to full time it: don't bet on credit unless you have a large BR and control. It is the most dangerous trap out there. But, if you must, do it with a good friend who will understand if you are short.
Also, it is better to bet with people that have full time jobs. Those that book with no other source of income, tend to be more ruthless and are really scumbags at heart. Lazy men should be shot anyway or at least punched in the mouth a few times until they wake up from their sleep.
Sorry for the rambling, but the older I get, I am beginning to see that all of this gambling is a flipping waste of life and meaningless for the most part.
LQQKer
2
Re: Math Models
My view: unless you are a serious math guy, and can control your life: give yourself a small bank at the start of the season, and then give the rest of your money to someone who you can trust, and won't let you dip into it later in the season.
If you blow your bank out early, then you live with the consequences. Use the time to read a handicapping book, or handicap "on paper" to see if you can improve.
My view: unless you are a serious math guy, and can control your life: give yourself a small bank at the start of the season, and then give the rest of your money to someone who you can trust, and won't let you dip into it later in the season.
If you blow your bank out early, then you live with the consequences. Use the time to read a handicapping book, or handicap "on paper" to see if you can improve.
WeinketoWarrick
EOG Master
Re: Math Models
Taft, you just called almost the whole board idiots with no life.
I think I'll speak for most of us when I say "Go Fuck Yourself".
One has to wonder what you're doing here as well...
Taft, you just called almost the whole board idiots with no life.
I think I'll speak for most of us when I say "Go Fuck Yourself".
One has to wonder what you're doing here as well...
Coach Taft
EOG Member
Re: Math Models
If you want to see it that way, go ahead.
I was trying to help.
And fuck you too.
If you want to see it that way, go ahead.
I was trying to help.
And fuck you too.
eberetta1
EOG Addicted
Re: Math Models
WVU has a point... When I play poker, I earn say 50 player points in a week. My bankroll says I lost a buck or two. Well, if no juice, I woulda made $48 profit. But after that week, the company gave me a $25 bonus for earning 50 points, then it is good to add bonuss into the total equation. I remember hearing a guy say he made $18,000 in one year, $6,000 in bonuses. So it can be a good chunk of your winnings in a year's time. Bonuses should not be discarded flat out. A pro won't tell you how much bonus he gets playing for the house.
WVU has a point... When I play poker, I earn say 50 player points in a week. My bankroll says I lost a buck or two. Well, if no juice, I woulda made $48 profit. But after that week, the company gave me a $25 bonus for earning 50 points, then it is good to add bonuss into the total equation. I remember hearing a guy say he made $18,000 in one year, $6,000 in bonuses. So it can be a good chunk of your winnings in a year's time. Bonuses should not be discarded flat out. A pro won't tell you how much bonus he gets playing for the house.
Re: Math Models
In the Spring of 1971, with the help of a computer science grad asst.(OU), using fortran language, we developed a program that could predict ABA Basketball scores. Some teams had close to a 10pt home court advantage. The Utah Stars(Bill Sharman) defeated the Ky Colonels 4-3 to win the Championship with the home team covering every game(??). A "local" in Norman made lines up for me because I was such a sucker.
In the Spring of 1971, with the help of a computer science grad asst.(OU), using fortran language, we developed a program that could predict ABA Basketball scores. Some teams had close to a 10pt home court advantage. The Utah Stars(Bill Sharman) defeated the Ky Colonels 4-3 to win the Championship with the home team covering every game(??). A "local" in Norman made lines up for me because I was such a sucker.
ullhair