MGM - NJ moves to larger margins in NCAA & NFL

Bucky

EOG Dedicated
#6
They could actually get beat badly this way. Assume the betting populace recognizes value and only plays the numbers that have developed value. Bets taken would be one-sided and they could get killed. However, if they insta clone the marketplace they could effectively reduce the volume to such a low amount they would not make enough to pay the help.
 
#7
are the wider margins at the MGM properties taking place in Nevada or other states that have MGM ? Naturally don best does not have the correct odds in NJ .
 
#8
States should regulate the odds to protect consumers. Books should move the line, not the odds. If the book can't win at 11-10, that book should go away. Bill Hill looking a bit better (bettor) these days.
 

Abundy

EOG Senior Member
#9
The way Vegas is headed. I could see them going to-115. Just think 6-5 blackjack. Resort fees. Paid parking. They will say they need more margin on sports bets. You heard it here first
 
#11
They could actually get beat badly this way. Assume the betting populace recognizes value and only plays the numbers that have developed value. Bets taken would be one-sided and they could get killed. However, if they insta clone the marketplace they could effectively reduce the volume to such a low amount they would not make enough to pay the help.
This will never happen with the betting populace.

Value is an unknown to them.

If they think the patroits w win the line could be -3 or -10. Doesnt matter to them.

Ne could be -21 this week vs the dolphins. The betting populace has no concept of a number where they would put money on the dolphins.

Ne could be -27 and the thought would be well the pats beat the steelers by 30 and the dolphins lost by 49.

Pats roll easy
 
#12
MGM is one of the few books dealing 20 cent MLB lines in Nevada and you get zero comps from them. Getting a free drink anywhere on a property is a challenge. So yeah it could get worse in AC, but I think they realize how well they do keeping Borgata attractive and drawing visits so it might play into their strategy. But the online stuff is driven by GVC, not MGM, so pricing and how that develops could very well follow a different strategy.
 
#13
Are any of you concerned that Vegas could go to 15 cent lines and what are you going to do about it
It's not seen as a profit center so I doubt it happens. Even if they did raise it they would make so little extra money it would not be worth it. MGM has an extraordinary advantage running their books in that it gives them millions of customers at no cost. Pushing pricing on that is tough because it can easily drive off customers. Sure the $20 player won't care, but it takes a lot of them to equal the $300 player who is going to walk across the street or bet on mobile, or even worse not set foot on property.
 

Abundy

EOG Senior Member
#14
I agree. The 20 dollar gamble is not worried about a dollar more juice. But a 500 dollar better is risking 25 more dollar
S per play
 

Bucky

EOG Dedicated
#17
This will never happen with the betting populace.

Value is an unknown to them.

If they think the patroits w win the line could be -3 or -10. Doesnt matter to them.

Ne could be -21 this week vs the dolphins. The betting populace has no concept of a number where they would put money on the dolphins.

Ne could be -27 and the thought would be well the pats beat the steelers by 30 and the dolphins lost by 49.

Pats roll easy
If they did do something crazy like -27 - Sharps would be all over the Dolphins and the sports book themselves would be gambling on the Patriots -27. Right along with the squares who did not know any better. In a way the sharps keep the marketplace honest for the squares who do not know or care.

But, I do agree on your point that value is unknown to squares. It is possible for the squares to win - they can all be on the same side. Sharps say - not touching this place because of the high juice. That is not really bookmaking as much as gambling the squares will always lose.
 
#18
I've come to grips with the fact we will always have a hard time getting the best of it. You wont anyways. I've been up since 2 in the morning. Believe I've gone 12 and 3 in tennis today. I dont care if its 10 or 20 cents more, I'm going to beat you long term.

The trick is to know when to pull the trigger.

I've learned the more reckless you are the more you get in trouble.
 
#19
You get in trouble when you chase and bet recklessly. You shouldn't be live betting a game you had action on before the game unless you're hedging and making a profit.
 

Bucky

EOG Dedicated
#20
You get in trouble when you chase and bet recklessly. You shouldn't be live betting a game you had action on before the game unless you're hedging and making a profit.
That would be fine if you made a profit every time. But, if you hedge the bets you are doing well in live - you will also have to eat all the losers. That is not going to pencil out. When to hedge or not is really a hard analysis.

I like the way you think on only pulling the trigger when you have defined value.
 
#21
If they did do something crazy like -27 - Sharps would be all over the Dolphins and the sports book themselves would be gambling on the Patriots -27. Right along with the squares who did not know any better. In a way the sharps keep the marketplace honest for the squares who do not know or care.

But, I do agree on your point that value is unknown to squares. It is possible for the squares to win - they can all be on the same side. Sharps say - not touching this place because of the high juice. That is not really bookmaking as much as gambling the squares will always lose.
The problem with your "sharps would be all over the dolphins" is a square book either bans or restricts sharps to the point where it isn't their time to get this for a few hundred bucks. Basically gives them a game that will get one way action.

A square/rec gambler doesn't have a bet on/bet against number in their head. They don't look at a game and say "I'd bet the Patroits at -14 but I'd bet the Dolphins at +18.

To them they just see NE vs Mia and will be NE.

For what it is worth the ticket count numbers for this game show NE 73%, 88%, and 53%.
 
Top