MLB futures and props

#42
I got in on Yankees under 96.5 yesterday through South Point

Severino has a bad shoulder

Tanaka has been pitching with an iffy elbow for 3 years now. Wouldn't be surprised at all if this is the year the ligament snaps and has the dreaded visit James Andrews

Paxton is a stud but rarely stays healthy

Corbin seemed a bit soft mentally at times in AZ. I think the big apple pressure has a chance to swallow him.

CC is an out of shape dinosaur but I give him credit for hanging around last few years more effectively than I thought he would

To hit 97 wins a team has to pretty have everything go right for them

The Yankees do have some nice arms down on the farm however if needed so that could possibly save them if my theories of the staff play out
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#44
IMO, the Pirates and Diamondbacks are pretty similar in talent. But one plays in a very tough division and I got 78.5 and went under (Pirates). The other plays in a decidedly weak division, priced at a lower number, and was a horrible 20-31 in one run games despite finishing over .500. Going over 75.5 with Dbacks.
 

nut6

EOG Dedicated
#45
i played these

wash ovr 88.5
minn ovr 83.5
houst ovr 96.5
cleve und 90.5
phil und 90.5
oak und 84.5


still looking at 3 others
not sure where these #s are currently
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#47
I was looking at the SFG starting pitching and that outfield......can they win 73 games?
The division is down, which scares me off of going all-in on the under. I still think they break this up and salvage some future pieces. It’s the worst Giants team in a while.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#49
Goldschmidt at 28 1/2. The over has been getting hit but I'm not sure that's the right move. Like Bomzee said about Machado, St. Louis isn't exactly Chase Field. And while a humidor was installed during last season, the heavy bulk of Goldy's career has been under launching pad conditions. And 9-10 games per season in Coors didn't hurt, either.
 

kane

EOG master
#51
Braves Over 86.5 wins
Padres Under 78.5 wins
Rhys Hoskins to lead the league in HR's (+2600)
Francisco Lindor to win AL MVP (+2200)
Braves to win the WS (+2100)

Post 'em if you guys got anything
Braves Over is a winner
Padres Under is a winner
Hoskins a loser
Lindor a loser
Braves to win the WS still alive
 

kane

EOG master
#52
I didn't post it, but I took a flyer on the Twins to win it all at 55/1, they should be the second best team in their division, and it wouldn't be shocking if they won it, if they can somehow sneak in the playoffs, you never know
Still got a shot with the Twins, not expecting this one to cash, but right now tremendous value catching 55/1
 

kane

EOG master
#53
McCutcheon Under 24.5 HR's
Puig Over 24.5 HR's
C. Seager to win NL MVP (+5000)
W. Buehler to win NL CY (+2500)
CHC Over 87.5 wins
KC Under 70.5 wins
McCutcheon Under a winner
Puig Over looked all year like a winner, but the cocksucker has now gone 35 consecutive games without homering, setting up as a brutal beat
Seager a loser
Buehler a loser
CHC a loser
KC Under a winner
 

kane

EOG master
#55
I played a lot in the last 3 weeks.
Some numbers have moved but not many.
Nyy 96.5ov
Sd 79un
Nym under 86.5 (ceasars day after national champ game)
Kc under 70.5-120
Cincy 78.5un+115
Az ov 73.5-125
Bal 59.5un
Houston AL west champs -375
Polanco 19.5 hrs under
NYY Over a winner
SD Under a winner
Cincy Under a winner
Ariz Over a winner
Balt Under a winner
Houston still pending
Polanco Under a winner

Well done Drink
 

kane

EOG master
#56
i played these

wash ovr 88.5
minn ovr 83.5
houst ovr 96.5
cleve und 90.5
phil und 90.5
oak und 84.5


still looking at 3 others
not sure where these #s are currently
Wash Over a winner
Minny Over a winner
Hous Over a winner
Cleve Under a loser
Philly Under a winner
Oak Under a loser

Good work Nut
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#57
I've got a shot, but I'm afraid it will go to his teammate, but regardless, this ended up being a solid play
I really like your shot here. Cole has been the best pitcher in baseball for 6 weeks now. His numbers are unreal.

drnk had a lot of good picks also. I was 1-1 in here.
 

bomzee

EOG Dedicated
#58
I played a lot in the last 3 weeks.
Some numbers have moved but not many.
Nyy 96.5ov
Sd 79un
Nym under 86.5 (ceasars day after national champ game)
Kc under 70.5-120
Cincy 78.5un+115
Az ov 73.5-125
Bal 59.5un
Houston AL west champs -375
Polanco 19.5 hrs under
Excellent Results !
Congrats!
 
#60
What a horrible beat this is gonna be for the guy above who bet under 90.5 for his biggest wager.

They are 19-2 last 21 games and 15 of those games were without the best player in the NL. Imagine having an under 90.5 and your team was 70-68, and yet you lose?

Still a chance, but don’t like it unless they lose tomorrow and STL and Nats win— might rest players the last 2 games.

Just a gross situation for under 90.5
 
#61
NYY Over a winner
SD Under a winner
Cincy Under a winner
Ariz Over a winner
Balt Under a winner
Houston still pending
Polanco Under a winner

Well done Drink
Thank you. They let you win a few here and there to build a sense of confidence. A long hustle. Hope all is well and goodluck to all.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#65
I will almost certainly be on Atlanta under the total next year. They are coming off 97 wins in 2019 and 90 in 2018 so we should see a big number. But a couple stats point to being very fortunate; their record in 2018-2019 was a combined 187-137 for .577. But their record in one run games was an extremely impressive (and fortunate?) 51-28 for .646. There figures to be some regression there. Based on their overall record, they should've won about 45 of their one run games. Their overall WRC was 99 for 2018-2019, but their WRC with runners is scoring position was a very good 106. Again, the overall number is more representative of what they should do. Some regression coming.

On the pitching side, two of the Braves starters were on the fortunate side; Soroka with a 2.68 ERA but a 3.85 XFIP, and Teheran with a 3.81 ERA and a 5.26 XFIP.
 
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#66
They have alot of money Valuist and traded for Wil Swith to start the new Bullpen process. Take acuna and albies who might actually improve especially power numbers and add a healthy improving (bat) with Swanson and add a Washington who will more than likely lose Strasburg and Rendon. Miami still miami, mets without at least one starter to FA and the Phil's with almost no rotation. I'd be careful. Theyll be chalk to win the east and have resources that 3 of 5 dont apparently.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#67
I will almost certainly be on Atlanta under the total next year. They are coming off 97 wins in 2019 and 90 in 2018 so we should see a big number. But a couple stats point to being very fortunate; their record in 2018-2019 was a combined 187-137 for .577. But their record in one run games was an extremely impressive (and fortunate?) 51-28 for .646. There figures to be some regression there. Based on their overall record, they should've won about 45 of their one run games. Their overall WRC was 99 for 2018-2019, but their WRC with runners is scoring position was a very good 106. Again, the overall number is more representative of what they should do. Some regression coming.

On the pitching side, two of the Braves starters were on the fortunate side; Soroka with a 2.68 ERA but a 3.85 XFIP, and Teheran with a 3.81 ERA and a 5.26 XFIP.
Texas had a record in one-run games that was similar 2-3 years ago. The next season, they fell off the map. You're right, there may be regression. I would only play it if the Nats lose their big two in FA, as it will make the Atl win total even higher.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#69
They have alot of money Valuist and traded for Wil Swith to start the new Bullpen process. Take acuna and albies who might actually improve especially power numbers and add a healthy improving (bat) with Swanson and add a Washington who will more than likely lose Strasburg and Rendon. Miami still miami, mets without at least one starter to FA and the Phil's with almost no rotation. I'd be careful. Theyll be chalk to win the east and have resources that 3 of 5 dont apparently.
Fair points and Wash will come back to the pack a bit. But the Mets were crushed by injuries, and Miami can't possibly be as bad as they were. Maybe Harper needed a year to get comfortable in Philly. But the talent will always be reflected in the season win totals. I think we will see a big number on the Braves, maybe 93 or 93 1/2, and the under will be ripe to be picked.
 
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