MLB thoughts so far - 2015

#1
Roughly one fifth of the 2015 MLB season is completed. My thoughts and observations.


It?s an OVER league at the moment. 19 of the 30 teams have played to more overs than unders.
The A?s lead the pack with a 25-8 O/U record, the Nats and Pads are at 21-12.


Cleveland has played 14 of the last 16 games over, 10 in a row.


On the other side of the coin, the Rays recently had 11 consecutive unders but have since played to 4 of 6 overs.


Boston and Toronto will over the long haul end up being ?over teams?. When they go into hitting slumps stay away, but try to time it when the come out of that and you can hit a lot of over winners in a short time. I?ll add Baltimore in here too. I think they will have nice ?over? stretches this year.


Watch out for the Nats?.They have started to turn it around. I can see some run line winners in their future.


Houston has started to regress. They surprised us all with that 10 game winning streak but have since come back to the pack with 6 of 8 losers on the ML.


Philly/Brewers. Not good. I?ll be playing against them on the RL a lot this year, also with two team parlays. Philly looks like a 100 loss contender.


Minnesota, what a nice surprise. They have made me money recently. Dogs a lot, winners at the cash window. They should easily go over their 71 wins total.


Dodgers , the real deal. Already 19-11 to the over too. I?ll continue to look for low totals and over wagers until the number adjusts.


Arizona and Colorado, good fade material. Colorado has lost 10 in a row, Arizona just isn?t that good.
I?ll also be looking for a while at betting against them on the RL and two teamers, just like Philly and the Brewcrew.

Just my musings as I look back at the early season results and look ahead at betting opportunities.
 

Heim

EOG Master
#2
Re: MLB thoughts so far - 2015

think DBacks better than advertised...no surprise to finish second despite BP rest of season projections.
 
#5
Re: MLB thoughts so far - 2015

Munson, happy Wednesday.
Bases is going very well. I transitioned to these totals clearly being too low the first week becoming more of an over bettor and it has gone well so far. I'm also playing Run Lines and two teamers. So far, so good.
Personally, there have been problems. I'll soon be single (does that say enough?).

BettingFool
 

munson15

I want winners...
#6
Re: MLB thoughts so far - 2015

Hope you come out the other side better than I did, my friend. Congrats on the results on the diamond so far.:highfive
 

Heim

EOG Master
#9
Re: MLB thoughts so far - 2015

Think Halos are a good play as a road dog. Addition of Richards helps plus Joyce & Iannetta will start to hit eventually. Home fav...no way.
 
#10
Re: MLB thoughts so far - 2015

I've been saying Overs in every sport for 3 fvcking years now and ain't nobody said shit to old Ted, fvcking Patty shows up and he gets 9 replies like he invented the game...John J Doubler reincarnated......I want some fvcking respect around here!!!!
 
#12
Re: MLB thoughts so far - 2015

Munson, thanks....
Justin, if the twins crash I'm ready to jump ship
Heim, Halos have been up and down. Hard to figure out when to be them sometimes.
Ted, nice rant.
 
#14
Re: MLB thoughts so far - 2015

Very interesting stats. Thanks Tim. I find it interesting how a few terrific pitchers continue to be underrated by the books. Cueto, Harvey & Sale yesterday seem to not get enough respect from sports books. Fangraphs featured a great article today on how much better the Dodgers Offense is than any other team by leaps and bounds so far. I'll be on some team totals till they cool off. Agree on Houston cooling off, won a few under TT on them. Fade Phillies all the way to the bank!
 
#21
Re: MLB thoughts so far - 2015

Houston doesn't have enough quality starting pitching. The team batting as a whole isn't consistent enough either. Bring up Carlos Correa, he's s stud.
 
#25
Re: MLB thoughts so far - 2015

Texas,
Houston strikes out way too much. 300+ already. One of every four outs is a K. Good point about the pitching.
I agree. They lead the league in HR's I believe, thought I heard that yesterday. They have too many .200 hitters who do nothing but swing and miss like you stated.

For some reason they're great on the road, and average at home. I still believe they're a year or so away from contending for a playoff spot. It's time the owners started spending some money though.
 

TobyTyler

EOG Dedicated
#27
Re: MLB thoughts so far - 2015

still real early but I like to eyeball team babip for who is looking too high/low

Marlins team avg .265
Marlins team babip .331

Cubs team avg .249
Cubs team babip .322

Red Sox team avg .231
Red Sox team babip .256

Reds team avg .237
Reds team babip .272
 
#28
Re: MLB thoughts so far - 2015

I've not bet a under all mlb season however I can't say I'm having any great success. Always enjoy your posts Tim, Bol this fall as well if I don't hear from you before then.
Goodluck
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#29
Re: MLB thoughts so far - 2015

Loads of MLB unders last night.

I played under 122 in the Grand Salami.

Fees like I should get paid more than 11-10.

Thanks for checking in, Timmay.
 
#30
Re: MLB thoughts so far - 2015

Thanks to all for checking in....
Bursting with confidence, unafraid of any play I could make because I've had such a good start to the season, I promptly had a crash and burn day yesterday, putting my right back in my place, giving me a dose of humble pie.

JK has been aware of my wagers over the last few weeks and was nice enough NOT to post that my day was a big bust.
 

munson15

I want winners...
#31
Re: MLB thoughts so far - 2015

I'll only say what a good friend says after a rough day on the golf course...'it doesn't make you a bad person.'
 
#32
Re: MLB thoughts so far - 2015

When the average total in all games has been 7.7 runs it isnt hard for them to keep going over.

With a little shopping if you had bet every game OV you would be around 268-220-16 @ -114 or so average vig, thats around +12.5 so far.

Now the 'math' guys will say now is the time to bet unders with their whole 'regression to the mean' crap. Which will be self fulfilling once books stop posting 7s on every game on the board.
 

TobyTyler

EOG Dedicated
#33
Re: MLB thoughts so far - 2015

Wanti, do you have numbers on season for favs covering RL ? or broken down with favs in particular range covering RL? thanks
 
#38
Re: MLB thoughts so far - 2015

good stuff tim, nice to see you around. been talking baseball with you for a long time, you are the real deal.

Dodgers are definitely the real deal and just imagine if Kershaw was on his A-game(still leads league in SO's). Also RYU and Kenley haven't pitched at all and McCarthy is having TJ surgery.

The only weakness the Dodgers have is offensive input from the SS position as Rollins is batting under .200. I am sure he will improve.
Our bench is so deep, it's insane. Guerrero and Joc are potential all stars. dodgers will be good for the next 10 years no doubt.
 
#39
Re: MLB thoughts so far - 2015

Munson, LOL, thanks. I think I'm a good person (still).
Wantit, one thing is for sure, something will change making unders more attractive.
Doug, I've not quite figured out the Yanks. They have cost me money. I'll stay away until I have a better idea.
 
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