Monday NFL Pick - Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets Preview


EOG Senior Member
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets

Dolphins are coming off a solid enough performance in a narrow loss in Denver to the Broncos and will looking to move to 7-5 with the win tonight, that will take then above Buffalo and to within two games of the Patriots and keep alive hopes of winning the division. They have still to visit New England and five wins would give them a decent chance as they would hold the edge in terms of tie breakers with the Patriots, anyway, a chance is a chance. They almost certainly need to win three, possibly four to make the post season and one of those has to come tonight. The Dolphins have done well in New York in recent seasons, winning 30-9 in 2012 and 23-3 last year, keeping the Jets scoreless through the first half in each and without a touchdown through eight quarters of football. In the first, they were handicapped early with the loss to injury of quarterback Ryan Tannehill, but still ran out comfortable winners, last year he was keen to get in on the act and threw for 331 yards and two touchdowns. That game was a year ago to this very day, there are other similarities as Miami were also coming off a narrow loss there to an 8-3 team and then went on tear up, with big wins over New York, the Steelers and Patriots and they will doubtless be eyeing up something similar this year.

The Dolphins are much stronger this year, an already good defensive unit has got better and their offense is improving hand over fist, up from a ranking of 26th to 11th. The Jets have gone from bad to worse, a #19 ranked defense has dropped to #30 and a poor offense which looked in bad shape previously , has got worse.

Obviously, I favour the Dolphins, they do have injury concerns and both cornerback Cortland Finnegan and tight end Charles Clay sat out practice on Friday , Finnegan's back up Jamar Taylor is already injured and if he mises out it will mean a switch around and they will probably move Jimmy Wilson to safety and further prepared for this by resigning Don Jones on Friday, he could cover for Wilson and knows the system and it is a good option. I am not sure that this is as bad as some people are making out, firstly both did practice a little on Thursday and neither played in Denver and they stayed competitive for four quarters against a team on a different level to the Jets. I prefer to view it as a bonus if one or both do play, rather than a negative if they miss out again.

Anyway, it is not see easy to score if you do not have the ball, regardless of who is on the other side and the Jets had possession for under six minutes in the first half here last year and only managed two first downs, to 16 for the Dolphins and New York posted fewer yards than Miami ran plays !

1.75 units Miami Dolphins -7 points 2.11 Pinnacle Sports/Vegas Line/Sportmarket.

source : (from the newsletter)