Mr. Over/Under Week 11 Betting (62-46-3, 57.4%)

#1
Record: 62-46-3, 60.2% (Over/Unders: 13-7, Sides: 9-5-1, Teasers: 13-13, Props: 8-13-2, ML: 2-0, 2nd Half: 3-3, Live: 14-5)
Amount: +$98
(Parlays: 1-1, not reflected in my overall $$ amount or record)

7-5 last week but down a little bit because of losing a big player prop bet for the second straight week. Luckily, I?m out to a 2-0, +$50 start in Week 11 after winning both Thursday Night bets (Which were posted at the end of my Week 10 thread but are NOT YET counted in the above stats. Those stats are entering Week 11) so hopefully I can continue that momentum. Let?s find out


Vikings @ Bears -1? - $44 to win $40
Analysis: Not a big bet here because the Bears have proven to be completely unreliable in recent weeks, hence why they screwed not one, not two, but THREE of my teasers last week by not even being able to backdoor +22, which is absolutely pathetic and inexcusable when coming off a bye -- especially in a division game that is one of the big rivalries in all of pro football. But, this is a different situation now. They?re back at home, where they?re surprisingly 0-3 and that?s something I don?t see continuing. Plus, they?re too talented to keep losing. Jay Cutler is due for one of his trademark solid outings, and this offense is too stacked to not get back on track. The Vikings, meanwhile, are overachieving up to this point and I see that coming to a halt this week. Additionally, they?re entering a sort of flux with Adrian Peterson set to come back sooner than later, and for now, I don?t see their running game succeeding, especially with Jerick McKinnon playing hurt apparently. This is a good buy-low spot for the Bears.


Teasers

DEN +1, SD +3?, PIT +7, PIT/TEN U59? - $91 to win $70


Going to add more
 
#2
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 11 Betting (62-46-3, 57.4%)

Another teaser:

CAR +15?, NE +16, NE/IND O44, PIT/TEN U59? - $33 to win $25

PIT/GB O41?, DEN +1?, PIT +7, PIT/TEN U59? - $26 to win $20

Good luck to everyone this week
 
#8
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 11 Betting (62-46-3, 57.4%)

Going to add more to that Rams hedge, since it's a PK again, although at -160 odds now

So another $38 to win $25 on Rams PK
 
#10
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 11 Betting (62-46-3, 57.4%)

Pretty crazy day so far. Tacking on some more action

Derek Carr O22 Comps - $23 to win $20

PHI/GB O44?, SD -?, PIT/TEN U56? - $24 to win $20

PHI/GB O41?, SD +3, PIT +7, PIT/TEN U59? - $39 to win $30

SD +3, NE +16, NE/IND O44, PIT/TEN U59? - $39 to win $30

SD +3, NE/IND O44, PIT +7, PIT/TEN U59? - $33 to win $25
 
#11
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 11 Betting (62-46-3, 57.4%)

That Bears spread win makes me 10-5-1 in spreads this year... maybe I should be doing more of those? That and a 13-7 over/unders record leads me to believe I shouldn't be wasting my time with teasers and props
 
#12
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 11 Betting (62-46-3, 57.4%)

Gotta have some action on this huge Patriots/Colts game tonight. No question there will be scoring but I'm not sure if I want the over when it's as high as 57, and I already have it in a few teasers, so I'll just stick with a small prop.

Tom Brady O25 Completions - $23 to win $20
 
#14
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 11 Betting (62-46-3, 57.4%)

They're offering it with the Patriots up 8 and the ball so I'll oblige

Patriots Live ML (-300!) - $60 to win $20

Piss-poor odds but I don't see the hottest AFC team relinquishing their grip, especially while they're still playing smoothly
 
#16
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 11 Betting (62-46-3, 57.4%)

Best in the country, right Zylbert?
Lol you've apparently got the wrong guy but I'm flattered you'd insinuate that

I don't get the comparison but I do appreciate the company with very little people here on the football forum. You having a good season so far?
 
#17
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 11 Betting (62-46-3, 57.4%)

Fine end to the betting Sunday, with a ton of potential tomorrow in the form of those teasers. Also have an over/under bet (Although, as called, really liked that New England/Indianapolis over but I already have so much on it in teasers but I'm pissed I didn't take the game Over 57) for tomorrow:


Steelers/Titans U48 (Bought 1 P from earlier in wk) - $78 to win $60
Analysis: While it might be a Steeler game, I'm a little surprised the line started out as high as it was. Pittsburgh certainly possesses a very potent offense with weapons that can take you all over the field, including arguably the most consistent receiver in the game Antonio Brown (Who has that record streak still going), not to mention emerging youngsters like Martavis Bryant and the continued progress of Le'Veon Bell, but Tennessee has a respectable defense that could potentially make them work a bit harder than they're accustomed to. More importantly, the Titans' offense is a unit in transition, having a new QB in Zach Mettenberger that probably doesn't have much of a future as a starter in the NFL, which should help to minimize their output. Bishop Sankey hasn't done anything special just yet, and while starting wideouts Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter are talented (Especially Hunter, who I think will become a much bigger name as these next few years go by), their production is seemingly capped (No pun intended) with such an average-at-best quarterback currently in charge. If Jake Locker was starting, I wouldn't feel as confident in this under, but luckily it's Mettenberger, and hopefully he continues to meander along very unspectacularly. There is certainly concern that he turns it over a few times, which would potentially give Pittsburgh good field position in multiple instances, but I'll take my chances in that regard.

Good luck
 
#18
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 11 Betting (62-46-3, 57.4%)

Damn, glad to rebound with those teasers but absolutely hated losing that under last night when it was pretty clearly the right bet. I can live with the Mettenberger pick-6 in the beginning of the game, although it was one of the most brutal decisions I've seen from an NFL QB, but the random 80-yard TD pass to 50-year old Nate Washington right before the half? Come on, what else are you supposed to be guarding against as a defense when you're in that situation? A play like that happens less than 3% of the time, so when a complete fluke BS play happens like that to completely alter a bet, it's a shame and just demoralizing. If that play doesn't happen, the under wins so that sucks.

Still, 14-6 for the week and up a pretty good amount. Hopefully I can continue that momentum
 
#20
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 11 Betting (62-46-3, 57.4%)

Zylbert! What happened to your gig with VegasInsider?!

Come on guy; spill the beans.

:pop:
Lol dude what are you talking about?? I'm not even sure I'd wanna work at one of those websites

Anyway don't have time to get my Week 12 thread up so I'm posting my lone (as of now) Thurs Night bet here, and it's a familiar one:

Andre Holmes O2? Receptions - $46 to win $40
The linesmakers are just teasing me here. I've discussed Holmes and taken a prop of his before and I'm certainly not going to pass up one when the line is only fucking 2? CATCHES for someone who A)starts, B)plays over 60% of snaps, C)gets at least 5-6 targets a game, and D)is actually extremely, extremely talented. I think he will come through here as the Raiders surprise people tonight and keep this one close

Good luck!
 
#22
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 11 Betting (62-46-3, 57.4%)

And there it is, the winning third catch... which comes before halftime. Good start to Week 12, hoping to keep it up this weekend but at the very least, a win on Thurs Night always makes it easier in terms of confidence and momentum. Looking forward to it
 
#23
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 11 Betting (62-46-3, 57.4%)

Get 'em this week, Zylbert.

You are almost back to being the best in the nation, and maybe the entire world at over/unders.

Any chance of VegasInsider employing you again?

:pop:
 
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