Mr. Over/Under Week 12 Betting (76-52-3, 59.4%!!)

#1
Record: 76-52-3, 59.4% (Over/Unders: 13-8, Sides: 10-5-1, Teasers: 18-15, Props: 9-15-2, ML: 2-0, 2nd Half: 3-4, Live: 21-5)
Amount: +$187
(Parlays: 1-1, not reflected in my overall $$ amount or record)

Nice week last week going 14-6, and it?s a good start this week at 1-0 +40 (Which is not yet included in the above stats; those numbers are entering Week 12, remember) after that Andre Holmes prop victory posted at the end of last week?s thread. Hoping that sets the tone and I can keep it going..

Lions/Patriots O47 - $55 to win $50
Analysis: A little surprised the line for this one is as low as it is. Yes, the Lions possess one of the strongest defensive units in football, but this is still the Patriots they?re going up against, the team that has registered seven or eight straight overs entering this contest. Tom Brady, ever since that blow-out MNF loss against Kansas City, has been unworldly and has always has the ability to outperform any defense he squares off against. The Lions, meanwhile, counter with a potent offense of their own that can strike in a variety of ways, but above anything, if this turns into a shootout, they have the ammunition to compete and provide points beneficial for an over. That?s mainly why I?m taking this over.


Dolphins/Broncos O47 (Bought ? P) - $72 to win $60
Analysis: Ever since Peyton Manning came to Denver, Bronco games have been the best bet for overs, and that?s exactly what I expect to happen this afternoon in their latest home game. They?re coming off an unanticipated loss at St. Louis, so being back at home, they might go back to the air even more than usual, which bodes well for any team?s outlook at scoring points. As a result, that means we need Miami to hang in there against the league?s best offense (in my opinion), and they definitely have that potential. They?ve been playing well lately and are coming off a huge division win over Buffalo from last Thursday, and if Denver gives us their usual effort and puts up their usual boatload of points at home, the Dolphins have what it takes to keep up. Plus, 47 really isn?t that high of a line for a game in Denver.


Ryan Tannehill O23 Completions - $24 to win $20


DEN +3, GB +?, CHI +5? - $36 to win $30

SF +1, GB +?, DEN +3 - $30 to win $25

MIA/DEN O34?, SEA +6, IND -1?, CIN +14? - $33 to win $25

IND -1?, GB +3?, CHI +8?, SD +8 - $33 to win $25


More to be added
 
#4
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 12 Betting (76-52-3, 59.4%!!)

Zylbert, quit thumping your frail chest and cut the charade.

You're up fucking pennies and still buying points like it's going out of style.

Keep highlighting your record and %; you can't help yourself.

This guy is a fucking fraud.
 
#5
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 12 Betting (76-52-3, 59.4%!!)

Zylbert, quit thumping your frail chest and cut the charade.

You're up fucking pennies and still buying points like it's going out of style.

Keep highlighting your record and %; you can't help yourself.

This guy is a fucking fraud.
Apparently you seem to have some obsession with this "Zylbert" fellow. If this is your way of saying "thanks for giving us free consistent winning picks every week. keep up the standout work", then you're welcome, sir. But I'm not sure why you keep bringing him up -- I've never posted on a forum or site like "Vegas Insider" or "Covers" before, though I've certainly visited them all.

And when did I last "buy points"? Is there something wrong with buying a half-point in an over/under on a VERY crucial number (If you have any knowledge of over/under bets in football whatsoever) like 47? Why wouldn't I spend, literally, an extra few bucks to get an important number like 47? Although in your defense, in the handful of instances where I bought a half-point/point(s) on an over/under this year, it hasn't come into a play, so my o/u record would still be 14-9 (60.9%, by the way)... so in that regard, you are correct, as if I left the line by itself, I'd still be 14-9 in over/unders. But most of the games, I didn't garner an extra half-point so that sentiment is moot.

Anyway, I'm going to add another Week 12 bet:


Ravens/Saints O51 - $33 to win $30
Analysis: Just a minimum-esque bet here look to tack on a little more to yesterday's big performance, but it looks like a solid one, although I'd feel more comfortable if it was in the 47/48/49 range, as this game could easily wind up 31-17/27-20. In fact, that's exactly where my prediction lies within, but I'll take my chances on the given line of 51, as there's excellent potential at least one of these teams cracks the 30-point barrier. This game is emanating from the Superdome after all, where the Saints almost always score points in bunches, and their offense could be even more rejuvenated after Atlanta's loss yesterday gives them a shot at settling back into sole possession of first place. Plus, Mark Ingram continues to dominate since becoming the workhorse lead-back for Sean Payton (And Pierre Thomas might be back tonight, which is a slight upgrade in his role over Travaris Cadet). Meanwhile, the Ravens have a very respectable offense in their own right, and this, if you remember, is where Joe Flacco won his Super Bowl and performed tremendously, so perhaps that helps contribute to an above-usual performance from the former SB MVP. It's a fine bet, I believe, and hopefully I can rack up another nice win going into Thanksgiving.

Good luck to everyone with any sort of Monday Night action.
 
#6
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 12 Betting (76-52-3, 59.4%!!)

Also VERY much thinking about taking Torrey Smith O3? Receptions -- I certainly recommend it, given the high scores that we might see and the constant chain-moving that you'd come to expect from any game in the Superdome. Plus, it's a very, very reasonable -120, making this bet all the more shady. After all, generally in eye-raising player prop bets like this one, the line might be -130/-150 for such an over, so perhaps they're purposely trying to bait people into it, especially since it's specifically 3? and not 4.

Hmmm
 
#7
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 12 Betting (76-52-3, 59.4%!!)

Well, that'll do it. Another decisive over/under victory, and really couldn't really have capped it any better. That also makes me 15-9 (62.5%) with over/under bets this year, by the way, so hopefully I've lived up to my name for all of you all season. Just trying to make everyone here money and win some money for myself on the side for fun, which is why I do this.

Arguably my best week of the season, finishing 9-1 for Week 12 (And anyone who watched Patriots/Lions knows the over should've hit so I was pretty close to being 10-0! Not to mention there being 30 pts in the first half of that game! Ahhhh). That's pretty cool when you have a week like that and it certainly helps with momentum going into next week, which thankfully is Thanksgiving Week so that's always a more-loaded week of action (Since there's three games on Thurs). Have a good few days, everyone
 

holdemnuts

EOG Enthusiast
#9
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 12 Betting (76-52-3, 59.4%!!)

I am with you Gus - I would put my BR on the line that this is cats from rx

My favorite line last year was when he would include his % in his record followed by "best in the nation"
 
Top