Mr. Over/Under Week 13 Betting (85-53-3, 61.6%, +$412... Including 15-9 with Over/Under Bets. WHAT A SEASON)

#1
Record: 85-53-3, 61.6% (Over/Unders: 15-9, Sides: 10-5-1, Teasers: 22-15, Props: 11-15-2, ML: 2-0, 2nd Half: 3-4, Live: 22-5)
Amount: +$412
(Parlays: 1-1, not reflected in my overall $$ amount or record)

Happy Thanksgiving everyone. This is absolutely one of the best times of the year so I hope all of you genuinely has a good holiday, and I'd be glad to assist you with that by contributing some more winning picks to you on this very Turkey day. I'm coming off a remarkable 9-1 performance from Week 12, so it'd be real nice if that momentum carries over, and luckily, I do have a very solid best bet for today.


Bears +7 @ Lions - $70 to win $70
Analysis: Normally I go for the over in the Lions' annual Thanksgiving game, but this year I'm playing a different angle, and one I believe I have a leg up on. It's actually a little surprising to see the Bears as dogs with that type of line, considering they can absolutely win straight up, so just needing them to lose by a touchdown or less in an important division game on national television -- while in the midst of a critical two-game win streak -- isn't really asking for much at all. In fact, at +250, I would definitely recommend betting them straight up if you're into those types of underdog bets. But I'm playing it a little safe, just choosing to have them with the spread, and I think it can be a profitable decision. When Jay Cutler is on, he's as good as most at his position, and he certainly has the ammunition to support that belief. Matt Forte has been having another outstanding season, while the combo of Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jefferey is very comparable to the dominant pairing of Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. The Lions, of course, have their own assortment of loaded weapons, but I think the Bears play well enough and hang in this game.

Good luck to everyone on their action today and again, happy holidays to all. Never take anything for granted and be thankful for all that you have.
 
#2
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 13 Betting (85-53-3, 61.6%, +$412... Including 15-9 with Over/Under Bets. WHAT A SEASON)

I also recommend the Over 47 in Bears/Lions as well, with the score probably winding up right around there.

Also stay tuned for Live Bets I might take! 22-5 with Live bets this year has to be considered a special accomplishment, but I certainly don't want to be content. Just want to pour it on
 
#3
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 13 Betting (85-53-3, 61.6%, +$412... Including 15-9 with Over/Under Bets. WHAT A SEASON)

Tough way to start Thanksgiving... the worst part is I had a great read on Over 47 but didn't take it because I haven't lost a Lions Thanksgiving Over over the years and got too fancy attacking the spread instead. Ugh can't stand when I overthink

Anyway, trying at another spread:

Cowboys -3 - $30 to win $25
 
#5
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 13 Betting (85-53-3, 61.6%, +$412... Including 15-9 with Over/Under Bets. WHAT A SEASON)

Lol am I supposed to go along with this? Happy Thanksgiving, btw

Anyway, sorry guys that tailed my disappointing 0-2 performance today. That's the funny thing about this great hobby we love: You can go 9-1 one week like I did last week, then start out the next with a decisive 0-2... and I say 'decisive' because I was legit off on both those bets.

Probably nothing else the rest of the night, though I do recommend Vernon Davis Over 2.5 receptions. Hope everyone had a good holiday with their families and I'll see ya'll Sunday
 
#6
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 13 Betting (85-53-3, 61.6%, +$412... Including 15-9 with Over/Under Bets. WHAT A SEASON)

Eh I'll take my chances on a live bet for the final 2014 Thanksgiving Day game...

SEA/SF Live U36.5 - $23 to win $20
 

holdemnuts

EOG Enthusiast
#7
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 13 Betting (85-53-3, 61.6%, +$412... Including 15-9 with Over/Under Bets. WHAT A SEASON)

Hi Cat - doing MLB totals this year?? Now that is something worth following.
 
#8
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 13 Betting (85-53-3, 61.6%, +$412... Including 15-9 with Over/Under Bets. WHAT A SEASON)

Lol am I supposed to go along with this? Happy Thanksgiving, btw

Anyway, sorry guys that tailed my disappointing 0-2 performance today. That's the funny thing about this great hobby we love: You can go 9-1 one week like I did last week, then start out the next with a decisive 0-2... and I say 'decisive' because I was legit off on both those bets.

Probably nothing else the rest of the night, though I do recommend Vernon Davis Over 2.5 receptions. Hope everyone had a good holiday with their families and I'll see ya'll Sunday
Frauds say what?
 
#9
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 13 Betting (85-53-3, 61.6%, +$412... Including 15-9 with Over/Under Bets. WHAT A SEASON)

Huh? How am I a fraud?? Is my performance this season not good enough or something?

Anyway, Sunday picks to be posted in a bit. Have a couple of really good ones I feel, and hopefully I am able to atone for Thursday's poor performance
 
#10
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 13 Betting (85-53-3, 61.6%, +$412... Including 15-9 with Over/Under Bets. WHAT A SEASON)

Looking to bounce back from Thursday, here’s what I have:


Giants -3 @ Jaguars - $81 to win $70
Analysis: At first glance, this looks like one of those ol’ trap Vegas games, in which they have the superior road team favored by around a field goal, against a notably inferior team who is at home, yet still choose to keep the spread low because they always seemingly try to bait people into taking the club that is on the road. In this instance, however, Vegas is simply overrating the home team in this particular scenario, enabling a very profitable opportunity by going with the other, superior side, that also happens to be “trending upward.” That is exactly how you can describe the Giants at this point in time, as even though they are 3-8 and barely above being mathematically eliminated from the playoff picture (If they lose, they will be so that’s another potential motivating force), they have looked good recently, leading Dallas last week for most of that game, not to mention giving a very competitive effort against another playoff contender, San Francisco, the week before that as well, before ultimately losing by one score. The Giants are also on an unpleasant six-game losing streak, something they certainly don’t want to continue another week, so I really don’t see them overlooking Jacksonville in this road tilt, which is often the root of when inferior home teams win outright in such scenarios. Plus, more importantly, as mentioned, the Giants have been trending upward so it’s a good spot to ride them in, as this solid play should ultimately be capped off by at least one victory. The Jaguars, meanwhile, have seemingly been going in the other direction since their one win of the season over a month ago, as it appears Blake Bortles, who I am a fan of and believe he can eventually lead Jacksonville to something special in the near-future, has somewhat regressed over the past handful of weeks with his constant turnovers. As a result, the Giants are a nice bet here to cover a low spread. In addition, it’s a return to an old familiar setting for coach Tom Coughlin, who absolutely might be in his last year and, if he’s liked by that locker room, should get a standout effort from his players. Rashad Jennings is also making his return to Jacksonville and I see him stepping up as well. Giants it is.


Coby Fleener O3 Receptions (-150) - $60 to win $40
Analysis: As soon as I saw this prop, I was instantly interested. Coby Fleener is good friends with Andrew Luck and a favorite target of his, which leads to several looks from the emerging star QB throughout the course of any given game. While the odds certainly aren’t friendly, I do think this is a prop bet worth making, as he’s someone who draws looks from any part of the field and is also a favorite check-down target for Luck as well. Perhaps most importantly, fellow starting tight end Dwayne Allen is out again this week, which should further maximize the usage of Fleener in this offense. Definitely a solid bet if you’re willing to lay -150 chalk.


IND +4, SD +19?, ATL +14?, DEN +14 - $39 to win $30

IND +4, SD +19?, ATL +14?, MIA/NYJ U54? - $33 to win $25


Will most likely add at least a couple more bets so look for those throughout the day. Plus always check back for live bets, which, as you can tell from my record in that department, I’ve been tremendous with this year and hope to keep it up.
 
#11
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 13 Betting (85-53-3, 61.6%, +$412... Including 15-9 with Over/Under Bets. WHAT A SEASON)

Also still trying to think of what over/under(s) to take, of course. Carolina/Minnesota O41 looks very tempting, as do the overs for New Orleans/Pittsburgh, New England/Green Bay, and San Diego/Baltimore. Hmmmmmm
 
#12
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 13 Betting (85-53-3, 61.6%, +$412... Including 15-9 with Over/Under Bets. WHAT A SEASON)

Gonna add one more teaser for now:

IND +4, SD +19, POR -3?, CAR +15? - $26 to win $20
 
#13
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 13 Betting (85-53-3, 61.6%, +$412... Including 15-9 with Over/Under Bets. WHAT A SEASON)

Also adding another prop to my slate, just a small one:

Phillip Rivers O22? Completions - $23 to win $17

And another $15 for $10 on the Fleener one
 
#14
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 13 Betting (85-53-3, 61.6%, +$412... Including 15-9 with Over/Under Bets. WHAT A SEASON)

And one over/under thus far for Week 13:

SD/BAL O44 (Bought 1 P) - $26 to win $20

Good luck to everyone today. Hard to believe only four weeks left after this
 
#15
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 13 Betting (85-53-3, 61.6%, +$412... Including 15-9 with Over/Under Bets. WHAT A SEASON)

Huh? How am I a fraud?? Is my performance this season not good enough or something?

Anyway, Sunday picks to be posted in a bit. Have a couple of really good ones I feel, and hopefully I am able to atone for Thursday's poor performance
Zylbert, you're a fraud because you got fired from VegasInsider for being a fucking fraud.
 
#16
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 13 Betting (85-53-3, 61.6%, +$412... Including 15-9 with Over/Under Bets. WHAT A SEASON)

Again, NO IDEA what you're talking about.

Anyway, adding another spread..

Broncos PK (-105) - $32 to win $30
 
#17
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 13 Betting (85-53-3, 61.6%, +$412... Including 15-9 with Over/Under Bets. WHAT A SEASON)

Luckily able to finish off that teaser last night to cap Week 13 with a 7-4 record. Perhaps more importantly, I picked up another over/under victory to move to 16-9 in over/under bets this season. Just trying to live up to the name

Damn, if only the Giants ($150+ swing for a correct bet!! UGH, can't fucking stand when that happens) didn't result in one of the worst bad beats of the season, this would have been a monster week. Will just have to wait till next
 

holdemnuts

EOG Enthusiast
#18
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 13 Betting (85-53-3, 61.6%, +$412... Including 15-9 with Over/Under Bets. WHAT A SEASON)

Luckily able to finish off that teaser last night to cap Week 13 with a 7-4 record. Perhaps more importantly, I picked up another over/under victory to move to 16-9 in over/under bets this season. Just trying to live up to the name

Damn, if only the Giants ($150+ swing for a correct bet!! UGH, can't fucking stand when that happens) didn't result in one of the worst bad beats of the season, this would have been a monster week. Will just have to wait till next
NYG spent the final 13 minutes of this game behind the number. What a terrible beat.

Are you posting MLB totals?
 
#19
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 13 Betting (85-53-3, 61.6%, +$412... Including 15-9 with Over/Under Bets. WHAT A SEASON)

CatsZylbert, what happened with VegasInsider?

You're no longer listed as one of their expert handicappers.
 
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