Re: Munson's Bases--Dogs, Discussion and Development
Analysis at the All-Star break----------------
While it clearly is a good idea to ignore divisional road dogs that are on a losing streak and not betting against hot teams, the overall picture remains true to the original premise, that home divisional dogs would do better than road. 40% overall on road dogs improves only to 42% when filtering out the streaks. No way to make money.
The home teams, while on the plus side of things, have been a mild disappointment, but home dogs overall are not clicking this year, either. Divisional home dogs are at 45%, while all home dogs are at 46%. Both are + money for the half season thus far, but not cashing enough to inspire any confidence. Home dogs generally fade the 2nd half, and I would be wary of betting them blindly the next 2-1/2 months.