I've read literally hundreds of books on the subject of horse race handicapping, from the classics of Andy Beyer ("Picking Winners") and Steve Davidowitz ("Betting Thoroughbreds") to the more esoteric offerings by Mark Cramer ("Kinky Handicapping") and Barry Meadow ("Money Secrets At The Racetrack").
Most every book written about pari-mutuel wagering addresses the concept of identifying "overlays," a term used to describe gambling situations in which the odds offered at the racetrack are greater than the actual chances of an event taking place.
A horse offered at closing odds of 3-2 whose chances of winning a race are 50-50 provides a 50% overlay, a positive expectancy which favors the advantage gambler.
In theory, the strategy of betting overlays appears simple.
In practice, the execution is far more complex.
I no longer play the races at a serious level for a variety of reasons, all dealing with my ability (or lack thereof) to find live horses at overlay prices. Here are just three of the many reasons I've resigned from the daily grind of playing the ponies:
1.) Most horseplayers, including your humble sports betting correspondent, are unable to properly assess the chances of every horse in the field. In my horseplaying days, I often times elevated the chances of short-priced horses while ignoring or quickly eliminating overmatched longshots. My bias in favor of the logical result considerably decreased my chances of finding live longshots or subtle sleepers, the type that produce attractive overlays and spark huge payouts.
2.) I've witnessed some of the smartest handicappers succumb to the game's 20% takeout. The price to play the ponies on a daily basis is extreme. Steven Crist, editor and publisher emeritus of Daily Racing Form and one of the most intelligent horseplayers in the game today, restricts a lot of his gambling action to chasing Pick 6 carryover pools or guaranteed pots. Bill Finley, author of "Betting Synthetic Surfaces: Conquering Racing's Newest Frontier," recently admitted to being a losing horseplayer. So much for accurately-titled books and so much for conquering anything.
3.) Actual overlays and perceived overlays are two different entities. Perceived overlays sometimes reveal horses not primed or well-meant for the day's action. A lack of betting support for a horse at a major circuit like New York or California usually spells doom for the ignored horse. Dead on the toteboard typically translates to dead on the racetrack.
As promised last Friday, here's my favorite racetrack angle in three simple words: money signals intent. Find a horse that's well-supported with insider money in the exacta or Pick 3 pools and then attack the race in the pools absent of the unnatural money. This strategy works best with young horses or maiden races in which a horse's ability is not fully developed or revealed.
MONDAY'S BEST BETS.....Two MLB plays and two WNBA selections. Let's win at least three of the four wagers. Here we go:
Play 911-912 Los Angeles-San Francisco "OVER" 6.5 runs. Both Chad Billingsley and Ryan Vogelsong wiggled out of multiple jams in their last starts and neither starter looked especially sharp. Billingsley walked five in his last start as did Vogelsong, who has issued 13 walks in his last three starts.
Play 919-920 Chicago-Kansas City "OVER" 9 runs. The White Sox offense should get to Kyle Davies, the worst starter statistically in the American League. Paul Konerko is 9-for-17 lifetime against Davies. Kansas City's Melky Cabrera has enjoyed success (12-for-20 lifetime) against Chicago starter Mark Buehrle. Let's get the game to 4-4 and go from there.
Play 601 San Antonio +2 over Los Angeles and "OVER" 158.5. The Sparks are forced to play back-to-back games with three aging veterans (Milton-Jones, Thompson and Penicheiro) and without their superstar Candace Parker. L.A. blew a double-digit, fourth-quarter lead last night and lost in overtime to the lowly Washington Mystics. The Silver Stars have this game circled after their 10-point home loss to the Sparks last Tuesday night in which Becky Hammon went 2-for-14 from the field and 0-for-7 from beyond the arc. San Antonio hit only 35% of its 76 field-goal attempts and 18% of its 22 three-point shots.
COMING FRIDAY.....MLB gambling notes from my Don Best rotation book.
Most every book written about pari-mutuel wagering addresses the concept of identifying "overlays," a term used to describe gambling situations in which the odds offered at the racetrack are greater than the actual chances of an event taking place.
A horse offered at closing odds of 3-2 whose chances of winning a race are 50-50 provides a 50% overlay, a positive expectancy which favors the advantage gambler.
In theory, the strategy of betting overlays appears simple.
In practice, the execution is far more complex.
I no longer play the races at a serious level for a variety of reasons, all dealing with my ability (or lack thereof) to find live horses at overlay prices. Here are just three of the many reasons I've resigned from the daily grind of playing the ponies:
1.) Most horseplayers, including your humble sports betting correspondent, are unable to properly assess the chances of every horse in the field. In my horseplaying days, I often times elevated the chances of short-priced horses while ignoring or quickly eliminating overmatched longshots. My bias in favor of the logical result considerably decreased my chances of finding live longshots or subtle sleepers, the type that produce attractive overlays and spark huge payouts.
2.) I've witnessed some of the smartest handicappers succumb to the game's 20% takeout. The price to play the ponies on a daily basis is extreme. Steven Crist, editor and publisher emeritus of Daily Racing Form and one of the most intelligent horseplayers in the game today, restricts a lot of his gambling action to chasing Pick 6 carryover pools or guaranteed pots. Bill Finley, author of "Betting Synthetic Surfaces: Conquering Racing's Newest Frontier," recently admitted to being a losing horseplayer. So much for accurately-titled books and so much for conquering anything.
3.) Actual overlays and perceived overlays are two different entities. Perceived overlays sometimes reveal horses not primed or well-meant for the day's action. A lack of betting support for a horse at a major circuit like New York or California usually spells doom for the ignored horse. Dead on the toteboard typically translates to dead on the racetrack.
As promised last Friday, here's my favorite racetrack angle in three simple words: money signals intent. Find a horse that's well-supported with insider money in the exacta or Pick 3 pools and then attack the race in the pools absent of the unnatural money. This strategy works best with young horses or maiden races in which a horse's ability is not fully developed or revealed.
MONDAY'S BEST BETS.....Two MLB plays and two WNBA selections. Let's win at least three of the four wagers. Here we go:
Play 911-912 Los Angeles-San Francisco "OVER" 6.5 runs. Both Chad Billingsley and Ryan Vogelsong wiggled out of multiple jams in their last starts and neither starter looked especially sharp. Billingsley walked five in his last start as did Vogelsong, who has issued 13 walks in his last three starts.
Play 919-920 Chicago-Kansas City "OVER" 9 runs. The White Sox offense should get to Kyle Davies, the worst starter statistically in the American League. Paul Konerko is 9-for-17 lifetime against Davies. Kansas City's Melky Cabrera has enjoyed success (12-for-20 lifetime) against Chicago starter Mark Buehrle. Let's get the game to 4-4 and go from there.
Play 601 San Antonio +2 over Los Angeles and "OVER" 158.5. The Sparks are forced to play back-to-back games with three aging veterans (Milton-Jones, Thompson and Penicheiro) and without their superstar Candace Parker. L.A. blew a double-digit, fourth-quarter lead last night and lost in overtime to the lowly Washington Mystics. The Silver Stars have this game circled after their 10-point home loss to the Sparks last Tuesday night in which Becky Hammon went 2-for-14 from the field and 0-for-7 from beyond the arc. San Antonio hit only 35% of its 76 field-goal attempts and 18% of its 22 three-point shots.
COMING FRIDAY.....MLB gambling notes from my Don Best rotation book.