My Monday blog

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Major League Baseball needs a simpler way to express complicated statistics to the casual fan.

For decades, hitters arriving in the batter's box were greeted by a scoreboard display or television graphic that listed the player's batting average, number of home runs and number of runs batted in.

Standards like the .300 hitter and the 100-RBI man were established across generations of fans.

Depending on the era, annual home run totals of 30, 40, 50 and 60 were viewed as benchmarks.

A pitcher's won-loss record and earned run average were two widely-distributed markers to gauge the effectiveness of a team's starting staff.

Much was made in 1971 about Baltimore's four 20-game winners: Jim Palmer, Dave McNally, Mike Cuellar and Pat Dobson.

Not anymore.

FIP and BABIP, short for Fielding Independent Pitching and Batting Average on Balls in Play, are better ways to measure a pitcher's performance and more importantly, predict future performance.

Throw in concepts and categories like spin rates, launch angles, exit velocities, win shares and ultimate zone ratings and the game becomes more convoluted and less enjoyable.

The stat game is becoming far too complex for young fans learning about the game.

Likewise, older fans are unable or uninterested in learning the sabermetrics of baseball.

Hearing an analyst on radio or television rattle off a long list of numbers without much context causes many listeners or viewers to change the channel.

Sounds like someone's reading from a phone book.

Traditionalists have been slow to embrace the more sophisticated view of the game despite MLB front offices embracing the new technology and terminology by hiring Ivy League grads, many of whom never played the game beyond Little League, for their analytics departments.

Here's the solution: One simple set of numbers, which everyone can calculate, to quantify performances by both hitters and pitchers on the baseball diamond.

OPS, or on-base percentage plus slugging percentage, is the simplest number to express a hitter's performance at the plate.

On-base percentage is a far more telling statistic than batting average because it credits the hitter for earning a walk, getting hit by a pitch or otherwise reaching base.

Slugging percentage is a straightforward statistic and easy to compute.

To calculate slugging percentage, one takes a player's total bases (one total base for a single, two for a double, three for a triple and four for a home run) and simply divides by his number of at-bats.

Barry Bonds, in his historic 2001 MLB season, achieved a slugging percentage of .863 which exceeded Babe Ruth's long-standing mark of .847 set in 1920.

Adding on-base percentage to slugging percentage, a strange way to express a meaningful number, produces a cumbersome total that needs simplification.

And here's the brilliance of this new idea: Instead of expressing an on-base percentage or slugging percentage with a three-digit decimal to the thousandths, simply lop off the thousandths column to express the numbers as a two-digit value.

A player with a .323 on-base percentage, that's the 2019 MLB average, reaches base slightly more than 32% of the time.

League average for slugging percentage stands at .437, a number needed to calculate OPS.

This season's average OPS is .760, expressed as 76 on our new scale.

The top two players in the National League this season are validating OPS as a worthy scale.

Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger, engaging in a duel for National League MVP honors, are 1-2 in the league with numbers of 1.121 and 1.085, respectively.

On our scale, Yelich would be accorded a 112 rating with Bellinger earning a 109.

Mike Trout is the undisputed star of our easy-to-understand scale.

This season, Trout has earned an OPS of 1.110 (111) against a career number of 1.001 (100).

And so, we have the standard for our new measure.

If Mike Trout has accomplished an OPS rating of 100 over his nine-year career, then we have the yardstick by which to judge other players.

A rating of 100 is brilliant and a rating of 76 is league average.

The scale looks a lot like the grading system established at elementary schools nationwide where 90-100 would earn an "A" grade or All-Star status, 80-89 would earn a "B" grade and be considered solid but not spectacular, 70-79 would earn a "C" or satisfactory, 60-69 would earn a "D" or barely passing, and 59 or lower would earn a failing grade or in this case, a trip to the minor leagues.

Better yet, a pair of numbers expressed together could highlight a player's yearly performance against his career standard.

So Trout's numbers of 111/100 would list his yearly stats over his career stats and show the most talented hitter in the game today is enjoying an outstanding season, even by his lofty standards.

Trout's big-name teammate, Albert Pujols, is a different story.

The 39-year-old Dominican shows numbers of 73/93 (year/career) to illustrate the steep decline in his recent play.

So the answer is now clear the next time a wiseguy asks, "If Mike Trout is so good, then why have the Angels not won a playoff game during his time in Anaheim?"

The smart-aleck response: Trout's brilliance is offset by the overweight, slow-footed, past-his-prime Albert Pujols.

More precisely, baseball is about both run production and run prevention.

And pitching has not been a strong point for the Halos this decade.

The last starting pitchers to represent the Angels in the All-Star Game were C.J. Wilson and Jered Weaver in the 2012 season.

No starting pitcher in the current Angels rotation strikes fear in the heart of opponents with OPS-against numbers listed in parenthesis: Patrick Sandoval (73), Andrew Heaney (75), Griffin Canning (75), Dillon Peters (81) and Jose Suarez (94),

Each of the last two seasons, the Angels have won exactly 80 games.

This season, the team is on pace for, you guessed it, another 80 victories.

You can call the Halos consistent or you can call them middle-of-the-road, both labels apply.

Bottom line: Baseball is a team game and not even the sport's best player can overcome a truly mediocre franchise.
 
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ejd_5277

EOG Dedicated
I like it.

Way too simple for the aforementioned Ivy League bean counters, though.

The front offices of both professional sports teams AND big casino corporations have become infested with these types, to the detriment of both.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Infested, good word choice, EJD.

Though I respect the mind of mathematicians, they sometimes go astray when applying their findings or promoting their message.
 
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Bushay

NHL Expert
You’re an interesting, insightful writer, John.

You have the forum eagerly anticipating your weekly take.

Too bad one of the gambling papers like Gambling Today doesn’t ask you to fill in or write a weekly or monthly column.

No doubt you’d be an asset to them like you are here.
 
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DotPark

EOG Addicted
I give that blog a rating of 110.

Extra 10 for creativity.
 
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winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
100% agree about too many ways to compute stats and all. But MLB is not alone. You need a Ph.D to be able to do a QB rating. Hockey has stuff like "Corsi" which is supposed to also say something but most hockey fans have no idea what that is.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
The greatest card in Strat O Matic History: View attachment 7459565


Glad I never wasted any time playing Strat-O-Matic.

Instead, I spent hours as a teenager trying to figure out the Eastern Line published in the Chicago Tribune.

The quote "5 1/2-6 1/2" translated to -130 with a takeback of +110.

At age 16, it took a long time to break that code.
 
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John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
You’re an interesting, insightful writer, John.

You have the forum eagerly anticipating your weekly take.

Too bad one of the gambling papers like Gambling Today doesn’t ask you to fill in or write a weekly or monthly column.

No doubt you’d be an asset to them like you are here.


Thanks for the compliment, Bushay.
 

Jammer

EOG Dedicated
My town went to Williamsport twice in three years. 1981 and 1983. The 1981 team was awesome, but they ran into Tampa and Derek Bell in the 1st round and lost. The 1983 team lost the semi finals 9-8 to the Georgia team that won it all the next day.
 

Foresthill

EOG Addicted
Gambling Today

Gambling today is a joke. They are a shill for the casino gambling industry. I suggested to Steve Carp (editor) that they publish their "predictors" won/loss records in units won or lost instead of 28-24 for a guy picking a bunch of chalk and who may have actually lost units. He didn't understand what I was asking/saying. I then futher explained the concept of units won or lost to him. Needless to say he didn't heed my advice/suggestion. Same thing goes on at VISN.
 

Foresthill

EOG Addicted
An esoteric stat needs an esoteric name.

Welcome to CORSI.

Corsi is not esoteric. It's simply ALL shot attempts for minus ALL shot attempts against at even strength. (ALL meaning not only shots on net but those wide and blocked.) Corsi just happens to be the name that Tim Barnes, who came up with the stat and who is a financial analyst, gave the stat because he liked Jim Corsi (of the Buffalo Sabres' staff) mustache.

Its not esoteric at all, its essential to understanding the game -- which team is playing well and which team is not.

Barnes screwed up. He should have named it what it is -- even strength shot differential.
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Gambling today is a joke. They are a shill for the casino gambling industry. I suggested to Steve Carp (editor) that they publish their "predictors" won/loss records in units won or lost instead of 28-24 for a guy picking a bunch of chalk and who may have actually lost units. He didn't understand what I was asking/saying. I then futher explained the concept of units won or lost to him. Needless to say he didn't heed my advice/suggestion. Same thing goes on at VISN.

Ditto for the ESPN show: Daily Wager

They show their lifetime BB record. I have Carpal Tunnel from the number of times I have Tweeted Doug Kezirian saying W/L Record is meaningless and they MUST do Units Won/Lost for the "experts" and their BB. I know he will reply any day now. Yeah, right! Those guys are also "chalk monsters" and their BB records are all in the Red or close to it. Games Won/Lost means nothing. Units Won/Lost means everything. Look at my BB record and Units and look at people like Smartz/Kevin Stott and how they are over .500 and in the Red (Kevin in 30 games OVER .500 yet only UP 3 units)
 
100% agree about too many ways to compute stats and all. But MLB is not alone. You need a Ph.D to be able to do a QB rating. Hockey has stuff like "Corsi" which is supposed to also say something but most hockey fans have no idea what that is.

Corsi is an extremely useful stat in today's game with low scoring, but you can't really calc it on the fly without official stats. And it's not really a game by game number although a player having a bad game would be noticeable in Corsi. There are lots of stats like this in hockey and baseball that are far better at judging players in sports with less scoring but if all TV watchers want is simplicity then forget about it. Doesn't make sense to try to give them during games.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Corsi is not esoteric. It's simply ALL shot attempts for minus ALL shot attempts against at even strength. (ALL meaning not only shots on net but those wide and blocked.) Corsi just happens to be the name that Tim Barnes, who came up with the stat and who is a financial analyst, gave the stat because he liked Jim Corsi (of the Buffalo Sabres' staff) mustache.

Its not esoteric at all, its essential to understanding the game -- which team is playing well and which team is not.

Barnes screwed up. He should have named it what it is -- even strength shot differential.

Thanks for the clarification, Foresthill.

Would you consider Corsi Ahead, Corsi Behind, Corsi Even and Corsi Close as esoteric statistics?
 
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John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Corsi is an extremely useful stat in today's game with low scoring, but you can't really calc it on the fly without official stats. And it's not really a game by game number although a player having a bad game would be noticeable in Corsi. There are lots of stats like this in hockey and baseball that are far better at judging players in sports with less scoring but if all TV watchers want is simplicity then forget about it. Doesn't make sense to try to give them during games.

Thanks for your input, WildBill.
 
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