My Monday blog

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
The World Series matchup is set.

The Houston Astros host the Washington Nationals Tuesday night at Minute Maid Park in Game 1 of their best-of-seven series under a 2-3-2 format.

FOX will televise baseball's signature event for the 20th consecutive season.

First pitch is 8:08 p.m. ET.

It's the best team in baseball against the team that's playing best.

The Astros won the most games (107) in Major League Baseball this season and dominated visiting opponents with a 60-21 home mark.

The key to the team's success?

Houston pitchers recorded the most strikeouts of all 30 MLB pitching staffs while their hitters were the most difficult to whiff.

The red-hot Nationals, winners in 16 of their last 18 games, are an easy team to categorize, too.

The regular season and postseason performances of the streaking Nats are incredibly similar.

Stumbling start, rousing finish.

Washington began the season 19-31 and fell 10 games behind division-leading Atlanta before rallying to post an MLB-best 74-38 mark the rest of the way.

Virtually the same situation here in October.

The Nats were left for dead not once, but twice, after facing a pair of two-run, eighth-inning deficits in the wild-card game against Milwaukee and deciding Game 5 of the NLDS against Los Angeles.

Granted, left-handers Josh Hader and Clayton Kershaw suffered through injuries and inconsistencies this season, however the Nats must be given high marks for their poise and persistence against a pair of southpaws with big reputations.

The Nats had a 13% chance to rally against Hader and only an 11% chance to overcome Kershaw, according to win probability rates at Baseball-Reference.

After rallying from their death bed, the Nationals played with a sense of urgency in the NLCS.

They never trailed at any point during their spectacular four-game sweep over the Cardinals.

Like most championship showdowns, the two combatants are outstanding teams with many quality contributors.

Sharp gamblers look to support teams like Houston and Washington, not fade them.

The Astros are fresh off a dramatic Game 6 win in the ALCS over the Yankees with little Jose Altuve providing the biggest hit of the series.

The Nats appear ready after using their week-long layoff to rest the seven most important arms of their solid pitching staff.

Starters Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Anibal Sanchez and Patrick Corbin have combined with relievers Tanner Rainey, Daniel Hudson and Sean Doolittle to pitch 85 of the Nationals' 90 postseason innings.

Sometimes the best bet is no bet.

Play ball!


UGLY UGA.....For the second straight week, the Georgia Bulldogs fell in the category of Impossible Favorite, a team laying more points than they score.

Unlike last week, however, the Bulldogs did not suffer an embarrassing loss.

Fans are interested in wins and losses; gamblers live and die on point differential.

Georgia blanked Kentucky, 21-0, but closed a 24-point choice at most betting outlets.

Never in the history of sports betting has a 24-point favorite covered a game in which they score only 21 points.

The game was contested in a heavy downpour of rain in Athens.

The Kentucky Wildcats were so inept offensively that they failed to complete a pass over the first 55 minutes of the game.

There were four other Impossible Favorites on last Saturday's card: Wisconsin, Missouri, North Dakota State and Furman.

The Badgers shockingly lost to Illinois, 24-23, as a 30-point choice.

The Tigers, as a 21-point favorite, played sloppy football in a 21-14 loss to struggling Vanderbilt.

FCS powerhouse North Dakota State continued its winning ways, but failed to cover a 42-point impost with a 22-0 victory over Missouri State.

And Furman surprisingly lost its game with The Citadel, 27-10, as a 17.5-point favorite.

Like the Kentucky-Georgia game, rainy and windy conditions in Greenville, South Carolina depressed scoring outputs and helped the underdog side against Furman.


PLAYING THE PONIES.....There's one way to win a race and a thousand ways to lose it.

Like most sayings at the racetrack, there's truth in the words despite the exaggeration.

Horses win races on the lead, they win races by prompting the pace and they win races coming from behind.

Horses win photo finishes, they win under wraps and they win via disqualification, like this year's Kentucky Derby which saw the first on-track disqualification in the 145-year history of the event.

So there's more than one way to win a race.

But losses come more frequently and in so many brutal ways.

Take this weekend's action at Santa Anita, for example.

Friday's fifth race featured a John Sadler-trained filly that towered in ability over a field of seven two-year-old maidens.

Every southern California-based clocker -- public and private -- seemed to tout Secret Square.

She was bet to the exclusion of others, closing at odds of 1/2.

What happened?

The gates opened and Secret Square literally touched her nose to the ground.

She finished second despite the disastrous start in a valiant effort that may have encouraged her connections but did little to comfort her supporters.

That's horse racing.

There's no re-do or replay or refund.

Instead, the results stand, no matter the circumstances.

Saturday's fourth race results at Santa Anita were much darker.

A horse named Satchel Paige took a bad step on the turn and suffered a catastrophic injury to his left front foot.

He was vanned off the racetrack and later euthanized.

Horseplayers who backed Satchel Paige at odds of 6/5 watched in horror when the Phil D'Amato-trained runner pulled up in distress.

Injuries to participants in this dangerous sport are the worst part of this beautiful game.

The casualties also serve as an occupational hazard for professional horseplayers who are tasked with judging the physical soundness of thousand-pound animals.

Want one more way to lose a race?

Take a look at yesterday's opener in Arcadia.

Gamblers who took the short price (7/10) on the John Sadler-trained Meso never had a chance, thanks in large part to 19-year-old apprentice jockey Jorge Velez.

Apprentice riders, like apprentice laborers, are learning on the job.

Velez was outfoxed by crafty jock Flavien Prat, who swept the early double yesterday.

Prat put Velez in a difficult spot along the rail in a small five-horse field by forcing the young rider to check abruptly on multiple occasions.

Prat was not only riding his charge, Discreet Diva, but also did a great job of intimidating his main rival without breaking any rules.

The skittish Meso was unable to perform his best, finishing fourth in a race where he should have been no worse than second.

Horseplayers are forced to gamble on jockeys whose questionable choices often decide the outcome of a race.

Whether it's dumb luck, a tragic injury or pilot error by an inexperienced jockey, horseplayers are forced to endure the breaks of the game while trying to overcome the house takeout of 20%.
 
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JK, serious question. Why do you (or anyone else) still put any significant coin on the ponies anymore? Seems like a completely unwinnable situation between the takeout and the fact that all the square money has disappeared outside of a few big race days each year.
 

howid

EOG Dedicated
grew up betting the horses because it was ''the only game in town.''

the comparative small sports wagering vig takes up my bankroll since the offshore world allowed that opportunity.

best part of horse racing is the two minute wait instead of multi hours to see the outcome of your wager.
 

Foresthill

EOG Addicted
The Tigers, as a 21-point favorite, played sloppy football in a 21-14 loss to struggling Vanderbilt.

When your offensive line doesn't effectively block their defensive line, it's hard to win the game. Season high 7 punts for Missouri. Never looked like they were going to win the game let alone cover the point spread.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
When your offensive line doesn't effectively block their defensive line, it's hard to win the game. Season high 7 punts for Missouri. Never looked like they were going to win the game let alone cover the point spread.


Good point as always, Foresthill.

The game starts and ends at the line of scrimmage.

The good teams know it and the good handicappers know it, too.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
grew up betting the horses because it was ''the only game in town.''

the comparative small sports wagering vig takes up my bankroll since the offshore world allowed that opportunity.

best part of horse racing is the two minute wait instead of multi hours to see the outcome of your wager.


Thanks for checking in, HOWID.

My favorite part of horse racing is the will-pays and the anticipation of hitting a multi-race wager like the Pick 3 or Pick 4 or Pick 5.

Show me a part-time horseplayer and I'll show you a full-time loser.

Impossible to win unless you immerse yourself in the product.

I surrendered many years ago.

The 4.54% edge in sports betting is tough enough.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
A "love of the game" and degeneracy. Only explanation.


Full-card simulcasting created a lot of sick horseplayers.

I see many players betting 10 or more races per hour.

Some players don't even look at the Form.

How is that possible?

#SicknessNoDoubt
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
JK, serious question. Why do you (or anyone else) still put any significant coin on the ponies anymore? Seems like a completely unwinnable situation between the takeout and the fact that all the square money has disappeared outside of a few big race days each year.


Great point, Bill, about the lack of unsophisticated money in the betting pools.

The racetracks did a miserable job in recruiting fresh money to the game at a time (the 1970's and '80's) when they had a virtual monopoly on gambling in this country.

Now with lotteries and poker rooms and Indian casinos and legalized national sports betting, horse racing is life-and-death to hold on to what they have, let alone an expansion of their brand.
 

Foresthill

EOG Addicted
Some players don't even look at the Form.

At the OTB just on the Illinois side of the Mississippi River from St. Louis, there are a number of people who just bet "numbers". These numbers could be area codes (314 -- St. Louis or 618 Illinois), the three number prefix of their phone number, or some other "lucky" number. I have even heard "handicappers" also play these numbers in addition to their handicapped bet. Obviously, these people are degenerate gamblers.

In my opinion, it takes lots of thought to discern live long-shots that the public hasn't discovered (or you need to have access to inside information about live long-shots, bogus chalk, or undetected track biases -- and bet accordingly in horizontal wagers, which most likely have more opportunities to be overlays).

"Speed" handicapping (as in handicapping the race in a very short time span as opposed to betting speed horses) almost always lands you on the chalk, which a large majority of the time is vastly under-laid.

With the "average" takeout of 20%, horse racing is very difficult to beat, if not impossible.
 

blueline

EOG Master
Full-card simulcasting created a lot of sick horseplayers.

I see many players betting 10 or more races per hour.

Some players don't even look at the Form.

How is that possible?

#SicknessNoDoubt

I dont look at the " Form"
Cant remember the last time I looked at one
 

blueline

EOG Master
2 things
I have a mechanical " black box " process and when Im sitting down to immerse myself in racing for the day I start by looking for the maiden races and off tracks across the country.
Those are the races I want to bet.
I then look for weak chalks in the non-maiden races and look to put together horizontal tickets.I look for races where there are final fraction edges to exploit.
The public eventually learned to gravitate to FR1 but they dont have any clue about FR3
I also like horses off of layoffs especially 3yos.
 

Foresthill

EOG Addicted
Blueline, thanks for the reply.

How do you discern this information without looking at the form?
 
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blueline

EOG Master
the running lines I look at look like this 57.61 55.60 50.43

as for looking for weak chalks etc the software sorts thru that
 

blueline

EOG Master
Thanks for checking in, HOWID.

My favorite part of horse racing is the will-pays and the anticipation of hitting a multi-race wager like the Pick 3 or Pick 4 or Pick 5.

Show me a part-time horseplayer and I'll show you a full-time loser.

Impossible to win unless you immerse yourself in the product.

I surrendered many years ago.

The 4.54% edge in sports betting is tough enough.
930am till sometime in the evening = immersed
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
I dont look at the " Form"
Cant remember the last time I looked at one

"Blue" has access to much better information than Daily Racing Form.

He swears by the HTR data.

Like any data, the key is how you process the information.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
At the OTB just on the Illinois side of the Mississippi River from St. Louis, there are a number of people who just bet "numbers". These numbers could be area codes (314 -- St. Louis or 618 Illinois), the three number prefix of their phone number, or some other "lucky" number. I have even heard "handicappers" also play these numbers in addition to their handicapped bet. Obviously, these people are degenerate gamblers.

In my opinion, it takes lots of thought to discern live long-shots that the public hasn't discovered (or you need to have access to inside information about live long-shots, bogus chalk, or undetected track biases -- and bet accordingly in horizontal wagers, which most likely have more opportunities to be overlays).

"Speed" handicapping (as in handicapping the race in a very short time span as opposed to betting speed horses) almost always lands you on the chalk, which a large majority of the time is vastly under-laid.

With the "average" takeout of 20%, horse racing is very difficult to beat, if not impossible.

Speed horses are grossly overbet.

No doubt.

But I don't like to bet races where the lead changes hands multiple times.

I usually look to bet races where there will be no lead changes OR only one lead change.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Master
I strictly go by my "quick turn of foot" metric along with interior power numbers and small sample post position data which usually rules out the rail, #1 position and/or the outside #8,#9 and #10.

All of this is gobbledygook, but the real fun is having no horse in the lead at the quarter pole and rate the race caller on how many different horses he has winning the race.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
I was smart enough to avoid the Houston Astros in Games 1 and 2, but not smart enough to embrace the red-hot Washington Nationals.
 

blueline

EOG Master
I strictly go by my "quick turn of foot" metric along with interior power numbers and small sample post position data which usually rules out the rail, #1 position and/or the outside #8,#9 and #10.

All of this is gobbledygook, but the real fun is having no horse in the lead at the quarter pole and rate the race caller on how many different horses he has winning the race.
Fr1 =1 is still around break even across all races...still pretty impressive
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Great job by Ken Massa and the boys at HTR Publishing.

They win without having to play the races.
 

Foresthill

EOG Addicted
Speed horses are grossly overbet.

I wrote the parenthetical statement to clarify that I was referring to handicapping the the race very quickly -- NOT handicapping the race for speed horses. See below.

"Speed" handicapping (as in handicapping the race in a very short time span as opposed to betting speed horses)

Maybe you understood that, and wanted to add an additional thought. But in case you didn't, it should be patently clear now.
 

blueline

EOG Master
FR2 is actually effective in the BC but I don't bet many BC races.
FR3 edge comes from people not caring about it or not quantifying performance wise.
FR3=1 in the slop at DED in 2 and 3 turn races produces +ROI...but you're not supposed to play tracks like DED
 
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