Gambling is easy, winning is difficult.
However, the combination of dogged research and successful decision implementation makes a sports bettor's task much easier and far more realistic.
The more you know about a sport and its corresponding betting market, the better the chance for gambling success.
Is it more important to generate winning plays or avoid losing ones?
Yes is the smart-aleck response.
One thing's for sure: If you're losing, you must stop losing (or stop playing) before you start winning.
Nobody transitions from a losing gambler to a winning gambler overnight.
There are steps to climb, levels to achieve and concepts to conquer before arriving in the winner's circle.
A sports handicapper who connects with only half his plays is not going to improve to the 55% level with a simple tweak here or a minor adjustment there.
In fact, the break-even rate of 52.38% at odds of 11/10 is a long way from the coin-flipping rate of 50%
Successful sports betting requires the assessment of risk and reward through the application of probabilistic analysis on the likelihood of possible outcomes.
The learning curve is steep.
Eye On Gaming contributor SPORTSRMYLIFE recently posted a series of goals for the new year.
One of his eight goals was learning the tricks of the sports betting trade by surrounding himself with smart people.
Iron sharpens iron when clever minds are able to collaborate.
Here are five lessons learned from some of the sharpest minds here at EOG:
VOODOO - To judge if a sports bettor has a chance to win, show me how many betting outlets are at his disposal.
The true professional has at least 10-12 reliable outs where he can access a full range of available pointspreads and confidently wager thousands of dollars without fear of rejection or banishment.
VOODOO also searches for wagers where the house creates a homemade line without the proper data evaluation necessary to make an efficient price.
He likes to attack the NFL look-ahead pointspreads posted at Westgate 12 days ahead of kickoff.
NEVERAGAIN - Casino life can be glamorous and dangerous at the same time.
High-level sports betting is risky business.
Stay away from booze, hookers, table games and video poker.
"These leaks can wipe out your bankroll faster than anything in Las Vegas," wrote the astute EOG contributor.
SKINNY - Future-book betting is like chess.
You have to think four, five or six moves in advance.
EOG contributor SKINNY recently bet Dayton at odds of 200/1 (Westgate) to win the 2020 NCAA Basketball Tournament.
"I made a $200 wager on Dayton right after the Flyers beat Virginia Tech in Maui," said the native of New Castle, Pennsylvania who first arrived in Las Vegas in the early 1980's.
SKINNY loves the play of Obi Toppin, the 6-foot-9 do-everything sophomore for Dayton.
Ken Pomeroy currently rates Dayton as the seventh-best team in the country.
SKINNY will be satisfied by a #2 or #3 seed when the tournament arrives in mid-March.
COMPTRBOB - Take a long, hard look at in-game wagering.
Bob maintains there are weaknesses in the algorithms employed by the leading sports books which produce vulnerable live-wagering prices.
Like most shrewd gamblers with an edge, Bob refuses to share his insight on betting the game when the ball is in the air.
Bob volunteered the following thought: There's not a lot of value left in the sports betting world before the season starts or before the games begin.
MACAU - Don't bet into hard numbers.
Betting NFL games one hour before kickoff is one of the biggest mistakes made by recreational gamblers.
Those are hard numbers.
The inexperienced gambler supports popular NFL teams late in the betting cycle and the newbie is not shrewd enough to properly fade the moves.
At odds of 11/10, there are not a lot of good bets still on the betting board late in the week.
Good bets disappear quickly while bad bets are available all week long.
LOOKING AHEAD.....Northwestern's basketball team is playing short-handed.
No Buie, no Gaines, no Turner.
Three sophomores and three freshmen are among Northwestern's top seven contributors right now.
The team lacks talent but not effort, especially on the defensive end of the floor.
Love the on-ball defense of young point guard Ryan Greer.
The team's first-shot defense was solid against Minnesota last night, but too many second-chance points led to a 77-68 loss.
Look for the 'Cats to play slow offensively and defend as a pack (help defense, group rebounds, fouls on the floor, etc.) this Wednesday night in Bloomington against Indiana.
Pomeroy (www.kenpom.com) projects a 74-64 final in favor of the home team, but I doubt either team will reach those numbers with NU's limited roster.
NU head coach Chris Collins will play low and slow.
However, the combination of dogged research and successful decision implementation makes a sports bettor's task much easier and far more realistic.
The more you know about a sport and its corresponding betting market, the better the chance for gambling success.
Is it more important to generate winning plays or avoid losing ones?
Yes is the smart-aleck response.
One thing's for sure: If you're losing, you must stop losing (or stop playing) before you start winning.
Nobody transitions from a losing gambler to a winning gambler overnight.
There are steps to climb, levels to achieve and concepts to conquer before arriving in the winner's circle.
A sports handicapper who connects with only half his plays is not going to improve to the 55% level with a simple tweak here or a minor adjustment there.
In fact, the break-even rate of 52.38% at odds of 11/10 is a long way from the coin-flipping rate of 50%
Successful sports betting requires the assessment of risk and reward through the application of probabilistic analysis on the likelihood of possible outcomes.
The learning curve is steep.
Eye On Gaming contributor SPORTSRMYLIFE recently posted a series of goals for the new year.
One of his eight goals was learning the tricks of the sports betting trade by surrounding himself with smart people.
Iron sharpens iron when clever minds are able to collaborate.
Here are five lessons learned from some of the sharpest minds here at EOG:
VOODOO - To judge if a sports bettor has a chance to win, show me how many betting outlets are at his disposal.
The true professional has at least 10-12 reliable outs where he can access a full range of available pointspreads and confidently wager thousands of dollars without fear of rejection or banishment.
VOODOO also searches for wagers where the house creates a homemade line without the proper data evaluation necessary to make an efficient price.
He likes to attack the NFL look-ahead pointspreads posted at Westgate 12 days ahead of kickoff.
NEVERAGAIN - Casino life can be glamorous and dangerous at the same time.
High-level sports betting is risky business.
Stay away from booze, hookers, table games and video poker.
"These leaks can wipe out your bankroll faster than anything in Las Vegas," wrote the astute EOG contributor.
SKINNY - Future-book betting is like chess.
You have to think four, five or six moves in advance.
EOG contributor SKINNY recently bet Dayton at odds of 200/1 (Westgate) to win the 2020 NCAA Basketball Tournament.
"I made a $200 wager on Dayton right after the Flyers beat Virginia Tech in Maui," said the native of New Castle, Pennsylvania who first arrived in Las Vegas in the early 1980's.
SKINNY loves the play of Obi Toppin, the 6-foot-9 do-everything sophomore for Dayton.
Ken Pomeroy currently rates Dayton as the seventh-best team in the country.
SKINNY will be satisfied by a #2 or #3 seed when the tournament arrives in mid-March.
COMPTRBOB - Take a long, hard look at in-game wagering.
Bob maintains there are weaknesses in the algorithms employed by the leading sports books which produce vulnerable live-wagering prices.
Like most shrewd gamblers with an edge, Bob refuses to share his insight on betting the game when the ball is in the air.
Bob volunteered the following thought: There's not a lot of value left in the sports betting world before the season starts or before the games begin.
MACAU - Don't bet into hard numbers.
Betting NFL games one hour before kickoff is one of the biggest mistakes made by recreational gamblers.
Those are hard numbers.
The inexperienced gambler supports popular NFL teams late in the betting cycle and the newbie is not shrewd enough to properly fade the moves.
At odds of 11/10, there are not a lot of good bets still on the betting board late in the week.
Good bets disappear quickly while bad bets are available all week long.
LOOKING AHEAD.....Northwestern's basketball team is playing short-handed.
No Buie, no Gaines, no Turner.
Three sophomores and three freshmen are among Northwestern's top seven contributors right now.
The team lacks talent but not effort, especially on the defensive end of the floor.
Love the on-ball defense of young point guard Ryan Greer.
The team's first-shot defense was solid against Minnesota last night, but too many second-chance points led to a 77-68 loss.
Look for the 'Cats to play slow offensively and defend as a pack (help defense, group rebounds, fouls on the floor, etc.) this Wednesday night in Bloomington against Indiana.
Pomeroy (www.kenpom.com) projects a 74-64 final in favor of the home team, but I doubt either team will reach those numbers with NU's limited roster.
NU head coach Chris Collins will play low and slow.
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