Label me an inveterate note-taker, especially when it comes to gambling.
I jot down tidbits of seemingly pertinent information and analyze every memo through the eyes of a sports bettor.
Editorial intrusion is kept to a minimum until the information is fully processed.
My scribbling is so sloppy that I'm forced to transcribe notes in a timely manner before they become illegible.
Here are 50 random sports betting thoughts, 10 life lessons and five bold predictions from this gambler's scorecard:
---More games are lost than won.
---Take inventory of every team in the league at season's end.
---Like a world-class athlete, sports bettors must combine talent and execution.
---Bet against poorly-coached teams laying 3.5 points or more in both football and basketball.
---Beware of football home teams laying 2.5 points or fewer and basketball home teams laying 1.5 points or fewer.
---Bet UNDER when two dreadful teams are playing one another.
---Study football stats on two levels: The action between the 20's and the production inside the 20's.
---Study NBA numbers on two levels: The first 11 minutes of a quarter and the final minute of a quarter.
---Early in an NBA season, fatigue is a factor because some undisciplined players are not fit enough to play at a high level.
---Before the Era of Load Management in the NBA, handicappers who studied the busy 82-game schedule were ahead of the betting marketplace.
---If you're only going to track two hours of the betting cycle, follow the first hour of wagering and the last hour of wagering.
---Fantasy bettors focus on skill position players, winning sports bettors focus on the game-changing action at the line of scrimmage.
---Don't be a fan: Sports fans are emotionally-invested, sports gamblers are financially-invested.
---Look for changes in a team's personnel or personality that invalidates performances of the past.
---It's hard to play from behind in an NCAA Tournament basketball game. Young players panic by shooting ill-advised shots from behind the arc in a comeback attempt.
---About second-half wagering in the NCAA Tourney: If a team was not prepared to play at the start of the game, what makes you think they'll be sharp enough to make the necessary halftime adjustments?
---Study every play of NFL Championship Sunday (January 19) to find angles for proposition wagering on Super Bowl Sunday (February 2).
---Search for low takeout rates in massive pools at racetracks across the country. Annual nationwide race handle has declined more than 26% over the past 17 years (from $15B to $11B).
---From TVG's Caleb Keller: Some horseplayers keep a "Horses to Watch" list; Keller maintains a list of horses he will never bet again.
---Only place racetrack wagers you would refuse to book (Example: Multi-race wagers paying five figures or more).
---Do not bet big money into small horse racing pools.
---It's not how fast a horse ran, it's how a horse ran fast.
---Losing horseplayers spread too much. Don't spray the pools. Have an opinion, bet with conviction and don't be afraid to win BIG.
---Horse races are won and lost in the racing secretary's office...at the entry box.
---Follow all sports like I follow the WNBA: Know every player on every team and every situation in the league (coaches, travel, scheduling, home-court advantage, teams peaking, teams declining, etc.).
---Track the moves and tendencies of the two newest WNBA coaches in 2020: Marianne Stanley of the Indiana Fever and Walt Hopkins of the New York Liberty.
---Embrace inconsistent teams and then discover the reasons for their inconsistency.
---Be an analyst, not a data-entry slave: Spend more time analyzing the stats and less time compiling the numbers.
---Regular-season win totals offer a rich opportunity for the serious handicapper.
---Placekickers in the NFL are the closers of the NBA and MLB.
---Find reasons to bet a game when teams are meeting for a second time over a short period of time (Don't assume revenge, but instead think about rematches)
---Also focus on the round-robin nature of some schedules where three teams play one another over a two-or-three week period.
---Realize that some star college athletes do not have the necessary body type to play professionally.
---Don't wait for data to make decisions. You must PROJECT.
---Always ask the question: How has a team performed in games featuring similar pointspreads?
---The only disability in sports betting is laziness.
---Avoid being a bookmaker's dream client: One who is always wrong but never in doubt.
----College football bowl games provide a well-researched gambler a legitimate chance to hit 55-60%.
---Home-field advantage is diminished with the advent of replay review.
---Does the team have a bond, a brotherhood?
---Bet against favored teams experiencing inner turmoil or dissension of any kind.
---On the subject of injuries: Know who's in and who's out; more importantly, know who's in and who's hurting.
---Bet the smarter team in the first half and the tougher team in the second half.
---Teams rarely play to the same power rating all season long. Teams are either ascending or descending the performance ladder.
---Look for games already won or lost on the chalkboard in the days before the game begins.
---Two important factors in today's style of football and basketball: pace and space.
---The games are not rigged but the schedules are manipulated for television purposes (Think flex games in the NFL, Sunday Night Baseball and the X-mas Day schedule in the NBA).
---Baseball today is all about home run production and home run prevention.
---Pitching fatigue is not about pitch counts, it's about stressful pitches.
---Bullpen deployment in the postseason greatly influences the outcome of games. Managers must be proactive, not reactive.
LIFE LESSONS:
---Make the rest of your life the best of your life.
---Don't allow your worst enemy to live inside your head.
---Shared laughter is the key to life.
---Alcohol, despite its scientific definition, is not a solution.
---Train your body and your mind will follow.
---Run for fun, not punishment.
---Age gracefully.
---Gamble judiciously.
---Is it better to master one language or be fluent in two or three?
---Never take a selfie with a young Costa Rican female 30 years your junior. You will be an odds-on favorite to delete the photo.
BOLD PREDICTIONS:
---Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers will eliminate LeBron James and the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals at Staples Center. The Clips will then defeat "The Greek Freak" and the Bucks in the 2020 NBA Finals.
---Baylor's men and women's basketball teams will duplicate Connecticut's impressive achievement in 2014 (and 2004) by capturing both the men's and women's basketball title.
---The San Francisco 49ers will employ their workmanlike offense and stingy defense (allowed only seven first downs to Minnesota last Saturday) to cover the pointspread against the high-flying Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV in Miami Gardens.
---The Clemson Tigers will defeat the LSU Tigers tonight at the Superdome in New Orleans by a score of 35-34.
---Given the spread of legalized national sports betting, an avaricious college athlete or troubled professional athlete will be involved in a pointspread scandal in 2020.
I jot down tidbits of seemingly pertinent information and analyze every memo through the eyes of a sports bettor.
Editorial intrusion is kept to a minimum until the information is fully processed.
My scribbling is so sloppy that I'm forced to transcribe notes in a timely manner before they become illegible.
Here are 50 random sports betting thoughts, 10 life lessons and five bold predictions from this gambler's scorecard:
---More games are lost than won.
---Take inventory of every team in the league at season's end.
---Like a world-class athlete, sports bettors must combine talent and execution.
---Bet against poorly-coached teams laying 3.5 points or more in both football and basketball.
---Beware of football home teams laying 2.5 points or fewer and basketball home teams laying 1.5 points or fewer.
---Bet UNDER when two dreadful teams are playing one another.
---Study football stats on two levels: The action between the 20's and the production inside the 20's.
---Study NBA numbers on two levels: The first 11 minutes of a quarter and the final minute of a quarter.
---Early in an NBA season, fatigue is a factor because some undisciplined players are not fit enough to play at a high level.
---Before the Era of Load Management in the NBA, handicappers who studied the busy 82-game schedule were ahead of the betting marketplace.
---If you're only going to track two hours of the betting cycle, follow the first hour of wagering and the last hour of wagering.
---Fantasy bettors focus on skill position players, winning sports bettors focus on the game-changing action at the line of scrimmage.
---Don't be a fan: Sports fans are emotionally-invested, sports gamblers are financially-invested.
---Look for changes in a team's personnel or personality that invalidates performances of the past.
---It's hard to play from behind in an NCAA Tournament basketball game. Young players panic by shooting ill-advised shots from behind the arc in a comeback attempt.
---About second-half wagering in the NCAA Tourney: If a team was not prepared to play at the start of the game, what makes you think they'll be sharp enough to make the necessary halftime adjustments?
---Study every play of NFL Championship Sunday (January 19) to find angles for proposition wagering on Super Bowl Sunday (February 2).
---Search for low takeout rates in massive pools at racetracks across the country. Annual nationwide race handle has declined more than 26% over the past 17 years (from $15B to $11B).
---From TVG's Caleb Keller: Some horseplayers keep a "Horses to Watch" list; Keller maintains a list of horses he will never bet again.
---Only place racetrack wagers you would refuse to book (Example: Multi-race wagers paying five figures or more).
---Do not bet big money into small horse racing pools.
---It's not how fast a horse ran, it's how a horse ran fast.
---Losing horseplayers spread too much. Don't spray the pools. Have an opinion, bet with conviction and don't be afraid to win BIG.
---Horse races are won and lost in the racing secretary's office...at the entry box.
---Follow all sports like I follow the WNBA: Know every player on every team and every situation in the league (coaches, travel, scheduling, home-court advantage, teams peaking, teams declining, etc.).
---Track the moves and tendencies of the two newest WNBA coaches in 2020: Marianne Stanley of the Indiana Fever and Walt Hopkins of the New York Liberty.
---Embrace inconsistent teams and then discover the reasons for their inconsistency.
---Be an analyst, not a data-entry slave: Spend more time analyzing the stats and less time compiling the numbers.
---Regular-season win totals offer a rich opportunity for the serious handicapper.
---Placekickers in the NFL are the closers of the NBA and MLB.
---Find reasons to bet a game when teams are meeting for a second time over a short period of time (Don't assume revenge, but instead think about rematches)
---Also focus on the round-robin nature of some schedules where three teams play one another over a two-or-three week period.
---Realize that some star college athletes do not have the necessary body type to play professionally.
---Don't wait for data to make decisions. You must PROJECT.
---Always ask the question: How has a team performed in games featuring similar pointspreads?
---The only disability in sports betting is laziness.
---Avoid being a bookmaker's dream client: One who is always wrong but never in doubt.
----College football bowl games provide a well-researched gambler a legitimate chance to hit 55-60%.
---Home-field advantage is diminished with the advent of replay review.
---Does the team have a bond, a brotherhood?
---Bet against favored teams experiencing inner turmoil or dissension of any kind.
---On the subject of injuries: Know who's in and who's out; more importantly, know who's in and who's hurting.
---Bet the smarter team in the first half and the tougher team in the second half.
---Teams rarely play to the same power rating all season long. Teams are either ascending or descending the performance ladder.
---Look for games already won or lost on the chalkboard in the days before the game begins.
---Two important factors in today's style of football and basketball: pace and space.
---The games are not rigged but the schedules are manipulated for television purposes (Think flex games in the NFL, Sunday Night Baseball and the X-mas Day schedule in the NBA).
---Baseball today is all about home run production and home run prevention.
---Pitching fatigue is not about pitch counts, it's about stressful pitches.
---Bullpen deployment in the postseason greatly influences the outcome of games. Managers must be proactive, not reactive.
LIFE LESSONS:
---Make the rest of your life the best of your life.
---Don't allow your worst enemy to live inside your head.
---Shared laughter is the key to life.
---Alcohol, despite its scientific definition, is not a solution.
---Train your body and your mind will follow.
---Run for fun, not punishment.
---Age gracefully.
---Gamble judiciously.
---Is it better to master one language or be fluent in two or three?
---Never take a selfie with a young Costa Rican female 30 years your junior. You will be an odds-on favorite to delete the photo.
BOLD PREDICTIONS:
---Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers will eliminate LeBron James and the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals at Staples Center. The Clips will then defeat "The Greek Freak" and the Bucks in the 2020 NBA Finals.
---Baylor's men and women's basketball teams will duplicate Connecticut's impressive achievement in 2014 (and 2004) by capturing both the men's and women's basketball title.
---The San Francisco 49ers will employ their workmanlike offense and stingy defense (allowed only seven first downs to Minnesota last Saturday) to cover the pointspread against the high-flying Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV in Miami Gardens.
---The Clemson Tigers will defeat the LSU Tigers tonight at the Superdome in New Orleans by a score of 35-34.
---Given the spread of legalized national sports betting, an avaricious college athlete or troubled professional athlete will be involved in a pointspread scandal in 2020.
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