My Monday blog

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#1
One-and-a-half and 53.

That's the opening pointspread and total posted at Caesars Palace for Super Bowl LIV at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.

The Kansas City Chiefs are a slight favorite over the San Francisco 49ers in a game that matches an explosive AFC squad against a strong, steady NFC foe.

The NFL's championship game will be dissected and scrutinized unlike any other sporting event this year.

Long-term Super Bowl trends will mean little or nothing when the Chiefs and 49ers take the field on the first Sunday in February.

Does it matter that Super Bowl favorites are 28-23-2 over the first 53 installments?

No.

Does it matter that Super Bowl underdogs, after getting dominated in the 1970's, have cashed in nine of the last 12 games?

No.

Or does it matter that the NFC leads the AFC in the all-time series by the narrow count of 27-26?

No.

So what truly matters?

Answer: The gameday performance of 53 players on each team's roster, some players obviously more important than others, and the coaching staffs of each squad.

The mainstream media and fantasy football geeks focus on skill-position players.

Hardcore sports bettors know better.

They understand the game starts and ends at the line of scrimmage where offensive and defensive lines dictate whether or not high-profile stars will have the time and skill to display their talents.

One could argue last year's Super Bowl contest was decided before the singing of the national anthem.

The Patriots defeated the Rams, 13-3, when New England's offensive and defensive lines controlled the line of scrimmage from start to finish.

It was New England's sixth Super Bowl title and third over the past five seasons.

Eight-time Super Bowl champion Bill Belichick -- six rings as a head coach, two as a defensive coordinator -- schooled 33-year-old counterpart Sean McVay in the lowest-scoring game in Super Bowl history.

Curiously, Rams' running back Todd Gurley, the NFL's Offensive Player of the Year, touched the ball only two more times than L.A.'s punter Johnny Hekker, 11-9.

Gurley rushed 10 times for 35 yards and caught only one pass for a loss of one yard.

Either Gurley was playing hurt or McVay foolishly ignored his most effective weapon.

With either scenario, the football organization, in general, and McVay, specifically, came under fire.

Of course, none of what transpired last season in Super Bowl LIII will influence this season's big game.

However, sophisticated handicappers will take note that NFL coaches are critical factors in the game's ultimate outcome, especially in evenly-matched, high-level football contests.

And it's not just a coach's preparation before kickoff nor adjustments during the halftime break, but rather the crucial tweaking and tinkering that occurs after every play.

Against quality postseason competition in any sport, teams emerge victorious with crafty in-game adjustments, not pregame scheming.

Three key questions to pose before investing in the outcome of Super Bowl LIV:

1) Will Kansas City's cavalier starts to its only two postseason games, when trailing the Texans 24-0 and the Titans 17-7, finally catch up to the Chiefs?

2) Will K.C.'s offensive firepower, when scoring 35 unanswered points against Houston and 28 unanswered against Tennessee, be too much for the 49ers to keep pace?

3) Kansas City's offense led the 2019 NFL regular season with 21 plays of 40 yards or more and San Francisco's defense led the NFL by yielding only six plays of 40+ yards. What gives?

Eye On Gaming contributor OUCH recently offered some words of caution when dealing with championship games which are promoted endlessly by network television and often entice the casual gamber.

OUCH wrote, "These games are tightly-lined, have every bit of information you could want out there, and present a scenario where any team could cover (or even win)."

He concluded, "Give me a Thursday night in the Big West or a Friday night in the Metro Atlantic...those games are flying under the radar, and that's where the value is."

Bingo!
 
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John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#3
Good news today: I bet UNDER 140 in the Bakersfield-Chicago State college hoop game.

Final score: Bakersfield 72 Chicago State 54.

On the surface, it looks like an easy winner.

But with eight minutes left in the game, it looked as though the game was going to clear the 140 total rather easily.

What happened?

Chicago State failed to score a point over the game's final eight minutes.

Yowza!
 
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#5
Shannahan punted on 4th and 1 from green bay 39 because of his lack of imagination, the same lack of imagination that caused the 49ers 1st loss of season in a home game vs seattle. A gap into a bad box count is the most common play call on 4th and 1.
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
#6
Eye On Gaming contributor OUCH recently offered some words of caution when dealing with championship games which are promoted endlessly by network television and often entice the casual gamber.

OUCH wrote, "These games are tightly-lined, have every bit of information you could want out there, and present a scenario where any team could cover (or even win)."

He concluded, "Give me a Thursday night in the Big West or a Friday night in the Metro Atlantic...those games are flying under the radar, and that's where the value is."

Bingo!
100% agree and I have been saying that for too many decades to count

That Saturday Night Duke/UNC CBB game is one that will be heavily bet. The books know it so they make sure that line is as tight as it gets. Contrast that with a WCC game NOT involving Gonzaga or as mentioned - a Big Worst game - where 5 people might bet it and if they hang a bad line almost no one will notice - and that is what has the most value to it.

We all see the Tuesday/Wednesday Night "MACtion" games shown on ESPN that attract a much larger handle than if they played a Saturday Noon (EST) game up against the rest. To quote a popular saying on ESPN's Daily Wager show: All tickets cash the same
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
#7
Joe Buck will call with Troy Aikman Super Bowl XIV. exactly 50 years after Joe's late dad, Jack, was handling play-by-play during Super Bowl IV. Kansas City beat Minnesota 23-7 as 13 point underdogs back then.
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
#11
Joe Buck will call with Troy Aikman Super Bowl XIV. exactly 50 years after Joe's late dad, Jack, was handling play-by-play during Super Bowl IV. Kansas City beat Minnesota 23-7 as 13 point underdogs back then.
I'd rather listen to jack calling it from his grave than hear his pompous ass son call this one

Joe FUCK is 100% certain 100% of the people tuning in for the game are doing so to hear him do PbP than the game itself
 

raycabino

Long Live Wilson!
#12
Shannahan punted on 4th and 1 from green bay 39 because of his lack of imagination, the same lack of imagination that caused the 49ers 1st loss of season in a home game vs seattle. A gap into a bad box count is the most common play call on 4th and 1.
Or he punted because he was up big late in a football game. Either way.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#14
100% agree and I have been saying that for too many decades to count

That Saturday Night Duke/UNC CBB game is one that will be heavily bet. The books know it so they make sure that line is as tight as it gets. Contrast that with a WCC game NOT involving Gonzaga or as mentioned - a Big Worst game - where 5 people might bet it and if they hang a bad line almost no one will notice - and that is what has the most value to it.

We all see the Tuesday/Wednesday Night "MACtion" games shown on ESPN that attract a much larger handle than if they played a Saturday Noon (EST) game up against the rest. To quote a popular saying on ESPN's Daily Wager show: All tickets cash the same
Love the example involving the efficiency of the Duke-UNC basketball pointspread.

If you want a tight line, play the ACC Tournament game between the Blue Devils and Tar Heels.

I always chuckle when Las Vegas gets credit for the accuracy of the pointspread.

Not only are the sports book managers there not setting the numbers, but also the numbers are easy to establish after 15-30 trials.

My favorite example for the novice gambler involves a bowling league, where after a few months of honest bowling results, we all bowl to our averages.
 
#21
Shannahan punted on 4th and 1 from green bay 39 because of his lack of imagination, the same lack of imagination that caused the 49ers 1st loss of season in a home game vs seattle. A gap into a bad box count is the most common play call on 4th and 1.
I understand why he did it, but personally I would never punt from the other team's 39 on a fourth down and 1 under any circumstances
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
#23
chiefs -5 beat balt 33-28

balt -6 beat SF 20-17



fan duel opened chiefs -3

now fan duel chiefs -1.5
Don't let FACTS get in the way of a good story

Chiefs HOSTED Baltimore

Baltimore HOSTED 49ers

Slight bit of difference there

KC hosted Baltimore in Week 3 - after Ravens went to Miami and won by a Million then barely beat AZ at home - so we had no idea how good the Ravens were after 2 weeks of playing JV teams

Ravens hosted 49ers in Week 13 when we knew how good both teams were

Apples and Oranges
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
#24
Will Chiefs turn this into College Football and go no huddle whole game? That's how to beat Alabama.
If they do they will lose by a zillion

49ers will control the clock and TOP and it will look like the Giants/Bills SB when NYG had about a 2-1 TOP advantage. If the Chefs go "no huddle" the 49ers will be creaming their jeans all night and what we saw in the NFC Champ Game will be a close game compared to what we would see in the SB.
 
#25
Don't let FACTS get in the way of a good story

Chiefs HOSTED Baltimore

Baltimore HOSTED 49ers

Slight bit of difference there

KC hosted Baltimore in Week 3 - after Ravens went to Miami and won by a Million then barely beat AZ at home - so we had no idea how good the Ravens were after 2 weeks of playing JV teams

Ravens hosted 49ers in Week 13 when we knew how good both teams were

Apples and Oranges

when 49er played balt they still needed the game. same apples
 

JHU Dad

EOG Dedicated
#26
In that SF at Baltimore game, not only was the game played in foul weather, but it was Thanksgiving week with the Niners in the middle of their Green Bay, Baltimore, New Orleans sandwich. Robbie Gould was in his first game back after an injury and had no range. Finally, SF wasted their times out early and gave Baltimore a free shot at closing out the game, which is what happened. Should be a much different game. KC is playing great. SF is too. Should be loads of fun.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#28
In that SF at Baltimore game, not only was the game played in foul weather, but it was Thanksgiving week with the Niners in the middle of their Green Bay, Baltimore, New Orleans sandwich. Robbie Gould was in his first game back after an injury and had no range. Finally, SF wasted their times out early and gave Baltimore a free shot at closing out the game, which is what happened. Should be a much different game. KC is playing great. SF is too. Should be loads of fun.

I know which side you'll be supporting.

Are you going to the game, Dad?
 
#29
I understand why he did it, but personally I would never punt from the other team's 39 on a fourth down and 1 under any circumstances
I am always confused with the argument of punting here. You hear people say "well the defense is playing great so why not pin them deep". Well my thought is that if your defense is playing great what does 25 yards of field position matter in a situation where you are going for the knockout blow. take into account how well you are running the ball you have a strong chance of getting the yard and back it up by a good defense.

if you turn the ball you people will say you gave rodgers great field position on their 40 yard line.

if you punt out of your own endzone and they take over at their own 40 yard line people say you change field position.

this is a potatoe, patatoe scenario I guess.

I am all for going for it more on 4th down. 3rd and long actually becomes more of a third and medium as the idea is not to get the entire chunk in one play but to get 75% of the yard. how many teams play their zone right to the first down marker and make a tackle just in front of the first down setting up a 4th and 2 or less. Think about all those free yards defenses are giving up with the idea that you are going to punt if you don't get all the yardage on 3rd down.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#30
It seems "no man's land" in the NFL no longer involves opponent's territory.

That's definitely the case in higher-scoring college football contests where kicking games are not as refined as their professional counterparts.

I like the way college football teams like Navy and Air Force treat fourth down.
 
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#31
I am always confused with the argument of punting here. You hear people say "well the defense is playing great so why not pin them deep". Well my thought is that if your defense is playing great what does 25 yards of field position matter in a situation where you are going for the knockout blow. take into account how well you are running the ball you have a strong chance of getting the yard and back it up by a good defense.

if you turn the ball you people will say you gave rodgers great field position on their 40 yard line.

if you punt out of your own endzone and they take over at their own 40 yard line people say you change field position.

this is a potatoe, patatoe scenario I guess.

I am all for going for it more on 4th down. 3rd and long actually becomes more of a third and medium as the idea is not to get the entire chunk in one play but to get 75% of the yard. how many teams play their zone right to the first down marker and make a tackle just in front of the first down setting up a 4th and 2 or less. Think about all those free yards defenses are giving up with the idea that you are going to punt if you don't get all the yardage on 3rd down.
My bolding option hasn't worked for months so I can't highlight the part I want, but I agree with you, the reason I would never punt in that spot is risk vs reward. By punting there's always the chance the ball goes into the end zone, in which case punting ends up a disaster, but even if you pin them inside the ten, you're still only gaining 30 yards of field position, but if you go for it and make it, you now have the ball in great field position, it drives me crazy when I see coaches punt in that spot. Had the Niners not had a big lead I have to think Shanny goes for it, with a big lead he decided to be conservative, but like you point out, his defense had been playing great, so even if GB takes possession at that spot, they're still 60 yards from the end zone
 
#32
A simple question to ask if you are wondering whether to go for it on 4th down is "what would my opponent want me to do"?

I know this is crazy but I wanted the packers to fake a punt in the last 30 seconds of the half deep in their territory when the 49ers showed an 11 man rush. down 27-0 already so what if you give up at least another 3 points if you fail. 49ers had no deep man. could have released a man on the outside and prayed.

I hate coaches that want to lose close as if there is some honor in that.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#33
I am always confused with the argument of punting here. You hear people say "well the defense is playing great so why not pin them deep". Well my thought is that if your defense is playing great what does 25 yards of field position matter in a situation where you are going for the knockout blow. take into account how well you are running the ball you have a strong chance of getting the yard and back it up by a good defense.

if you turn the ball you people will say you gave rodgers great field position on their 40 yard line.

if you punt out of your own endzone and they take over at their own 40 yard line people say you change field position.

this is a potatoe, patatoe scenario I guess.

I am all for going for it more on 4th down. 3rd and long actually becomes more of a third and medium as the idea is not to get the entire chunk in one play but to get 75% of the yard. how many teams play their zone right to the first down marker and make a tackle just in front of the first down setting up a 4th and 2 or less. Think about all those free yards defenses are giving up with the idea that you are going to punt if you don't get all the yardage on 3rd down.
My theory on the defense is playing great - by pinning them deep, the offense tends to be more conservative. That helps the defense. The offense is probably punting out of its end zone also. If they get the ball at the 39, now the offense can run trick plays, like a fake punt that happened in the Tenn game.
 

Foresthill

EOG Senior Member
#34
2) Will K.C.'s offensive firepower, when scoring 35 unanswered points against Houston and 28 unanswered against Tennessee, be too much for the 49ers to keep pace?
You mean 35 straight points and 28 straight points as the scores were "answered".

One-and-a-half and 53.
Game opened early in the 2nd quarter pick/51.5 at William Hill and "sat" there into the 4th quarter when money started coming in on Chiefs and over.
 
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