What's your greatest discovery as a sports betting enthusiast?
When I first arrived in Las Vegas in 1985, the standard sports betting odds of 11/10 did not appear onerous nor overwhelming.
I wanted to gamble in the worst way.
And that's exactly what I did: I gambled in the worst way.
I gambled when I was tired, I gambled when I was upset, I gambled just to gamble and worst of all, I gambled without an edge.
I plowed forward for most of the 1980's with a tweak here and a tweak there until slowly learning the tricks of the trade.
A house take of 4.54% seemed fair and reasonable to this eager sports bettor armed with an indefatigable will to research and an entrepreneurial spirit to gamble and win.
Three realizations over the past 35 years: 1) Will and spirit only get you so far, 2) Other sharp sports bettors in the gambling arena have similar will and spirit and sometimes possess keener insight, and 3) It's not what you know, but rather what you know that others don't know.
Take last night's Super Bowl, for example.
Final score: Kansas City 31 San Francisco 20.
Before kickoff, there were very few pieces of information hiding from plain sight.
The closing number varied only slightly from the opening number.
Oddsmakers correctly identified the favorite of the game and several billion dollars in action barely moved the point spread.
Kansas City closed a slight 1-point favorite over San Francisco at William Hill outlets, a 1.5-point favorite in the offshore world and a 2-point choice at Westgate.
Like most teams appearing in championship events, the Chiefs and 49ers both possessed qualities a sophisticated sports bettor should be looking to embrace, not reject.
Sharp sports handicappers completely understood the known factors.
There was Kansas City's explosive offense against San Francisco's physical defense and San Francisco's methodical offense against Kansas City's yielding defense.
Veteran observers also accepted the "known unknowns," if you will.
The two biggest unknowns: How would quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Jimmy Garoppolo perform in the most important game of their young careers?
The 28-year-old Garoppolo managed the game well enough to give his team a 20-10 lead entering the fourth quarter.
The free-wheeling Mahomes, on the other hand, struggled through three quarters before coming alive in a dramatic final quarter.
In a shaky third quarter, it appeared as if the big moment finally caught up to the 24-year-old Mahomes.
The 49ers controlled the pace of the game and the score of the game until they looked to finish the job.
Enter San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan and his spotty history.
The 40-year-old Shanahan, who as offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons lost a 28-3 lead to the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LI, failed again to secure victory in a disappointing fourth-quarter performance.
The Patriots scored the game's final 31 points of the game three years ago and the Chiefs rallied for 21 consecutive points last night.
Kyle Shanahan-led offenses have now been outscored 46-0 in the fourth quarter and overtime of two Super Bowl losses.
Shanahan was justifiably criticized for failing to use a ball-control running attack against New England.
Last night, Shanahan failed to tack-on more points to a 20-10 fourth-quarter lead against a vulnerable Kansas City defense and explosive Kansas City offense.
Super Bowl LIV was similar to an NBA game where coaches adopt a different strategy in the final quarter than the one they employed in building a lead over the first three quarters.
Instead, players and coaches inexplicably compete to survive an opponent's comeback efforts, nervously waiting for the game clock to read 0:00.
The quick-strike Chiefs scored 21 points in a span of five minutes and one second to stun Shanahan, Garoppolo and Niner Nation.
Also credit Kansas City's often-maligned leaky defense for harassing Jimmy Garoppolo into errant passes and empty drives in a frantic fourth quarter.
If you bet the Chiefs, go ahead and collect your winnings.
But let's not brag about a convincing 11-point victory or a brilliant handicap of the game.
After all, gamblers who supported Kansas City could have secured an in-game price of better than 4/1 early in the fourth quarter and a price of nearly 5/1 midway through the frame.
Bookmakers offered a live-wagering price of San Francisco-500 when the 49ers had the lead (20-10) and the ball with 12 minutes remaining in the game.
Kansas City's chances grew more dire when live-wagering models assigned the 49ers a 95% chance to win the game with less than eight minutes remaining in Super Bowl LIV.
A cavalier, nonchalant attitude toward the scoreboard did not stand in the way of Kansas City's first Super Bowl title in 50 years.
Credit the Chiefs for winning Super Bowl LIV with an assist to a dazed San Francisco team that failed to respond at the game's most critical time.
Three postseason games for the Chiefs, three comebacks of 10 points or more and most importantly, three double-digit playoff victories.
No NFL team this season was able to flip the script like the Kansas City Chiefs.
When I first arrived in Las Vegas in 1985, the standard sports betting odds of 11/10 did not appear onerous nor overwhelming.
I wanted to gamble in the worst way.
And that's exactly what I did: I gambled in the worst way.
I gambled when I was tired, I gambled when I was upset, I gambled just to gamble and worst of all, I gambled without an edge.
I plowed forward for most of the 1980's with a tweak here and a tweak there until slowly learning the tricks of the trade.
A house take of 4.54% seemed fair and reasonable to this eager sports bettor armed with an indefatigable will to research and an entrepreneurial spirit to gamble and win.
Three realizations over the past 35 years: 1) Will and spirit only get you so far, 2) Other sharp sports bettors in the gambling arena have similar will and spirit and sometimes possess keener insight, and 3) It's not what you know, but rather what you know that others don't know.
Take last night's Super Bowl, for example.
Final score: Kansas City 31 San Francisco 20.
Before kickoff, there were very few pieces of information hiding from plain sight.
The closing number varied only slightly from the opening number.
Oddsmakers correctly identified the favorite of the game and several billion dollars in action barely moved the point spread.
Kansas City closed a slight 1-point favorite over San Francisco at William Hill outlets, a 1.5-point favorite in the offshore world and a 2-point choice at Westgate.
Like most teams appearing in championship events, the Chiefs and 49ers both possessed qualities a sophisticated sports bettor should be looking to embrace, not reject.
Sharp sports handicappers completely understood the known factors.
There was Kansas City's explosive offense against San Francisco's physical defense and San Francisco's methodical offense against Kansas City's yielding defense.
Veteran observers also accepted the "known unknowns," if you will.
The two biggest unknowns: How would quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Jimmy Garoppolo perform in the most important game of their young careers?
The 28-year-old Garoppolo managed the game well enough to give his team a 20-10 lead entering the fourth quarter.
The free-wheeling Mahomes, on the other hand, struggled through three quarters before coming alive in a dramatic final quarter.
In a shaky third quarter, it appeared as if the big moment finally caught up to the 24-year-old Mahomes.
The 49ers controlled the pace of the game and the score of the game until they looked to finish the job.
Enter San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan and his spotty history.
The 40-year-old Shanahan, who as offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons lost a 28-3 lead to the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LI, failed again to secure victory in a disappointing fourth-quarter performance.
The Patriots scored the game's final 31 points of the game three years ago and the Chiefs rallied for 21 consecutive points last night.
Kyle Shanahan-led offenses have now been outscored 46-0 in the fourth quarter and overtime of two Super Bowl losses.
Shanahan was justifiably criticized for failing to use a ball-control running attack against New England.
Last night, Shanahan failed to tack-on more points to a 20-10 fourth-quarter lead against a vulnerable Kansas City defense and explosive Kansas City offense.
Super Bowl LIV was similar to an NBA game where coaches adopt a different strategy in the final quarter than the one they employed in building a lead over the first three quarters.
Instead, players and coaches inexplicably compete to survive an opponent's comeback efforts, nervously waiting for the game clock to read 0:00.
The quick-strike Chiefs scored 21 points in a span of five minutes and one second to stun Shanahan, Garoppolo and Niner Nation.
Also credit Kansas City's often-maligned leaky defense for harassing Jimmy Garoppolo into errant passes and empty drives in a frantic fourth quarter.
If you bet the Chiefs, go ahead and collect your winnings.
But let's not brag about a convincing 11-point victory or a brilliant handicap of the game.
After all, gamblers who supported Kansas City could have secured an in-game price of better than 4/1 early in the fourth quarter and a price of nearly 5/1 midway through the frame.
Bookmakers offered a live-wagering price of San Francisco-500 when the 49ers had the lead (20-10) and the ball with 12 minutes remaining in the game.
Kansas City's chances grew more dire when live-wagering models assigned the 49ers a 95% chance to win the game with less than eight minutes remaining in Super Bowl LIV.
A cavalier, nonchalant attitude toward the scoreboard did not stand in the way of Kansas City's first Super Bowl title in 50 years.
Credit the Chiefs for winning Super Bowl LIV with an assist to a dazed San Francisco team that failed to respond at the game's most critical time.
Three postseason games for the Chiefs, three comebacks of 10 points or more and most importantly, three double-digit playoff victories.
No NFL team this season was able to flip the script like the Kansas City Chiefs.
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