What's your sports betting superpower?
My history of observing sporting events from a gambling perspective every day over the past 40 years is my greatest strength.
Not one year of experience repeated 40 times, but four full decades of adapting, altering and adjusting my opinions to an ever-changing sports landscape.
Every piece of information is processed through the eyes of a sports bettor.
Gambling intuition typically improves over time and one problem for beginning sports bettors is an inability to rely on instincts.
Why?
Because most beginners either have no instincts or their instincts are all wrong.
There are many differences between the recreational sports enthusiast and the hardcore sports bettor.
Sports fans are emotionally-connected to their favorite team while sports gamblers are financially-involved with all teams.
Furthermore, sports fans passionately follow the action on and off the field.
Sports bettors impartially follow the action on the field and closely chart the action in the betting marketplace.
A sharp sports bettor not only analyzes the strengths and weaknesses of players, coaches and teams, but also tracks the price evaluations of oddsmakers, bookmakers and fellow gamblers.
It's not enough to answer the question, "How good is Team A?"
Rather, the critical question is, "How good is Team A compared to the market's view of Team A?"
Flashback to 1985 for a quick story highlighting a similar distinction.
I first arrived in Las Vegas with my eyes wide open, looking to learn the tricks of the sports betting trade.
The first mistake in my sports betting education was to survey fellow gamblers with the age-old question, "Who do you like?"
For starters, that's not the right query.
A more precise question is, "Who did you bet?"
I quickly learned proper examinations go well beyond a single question.
With more experience came more perspective until the proper line of questioning went something like this:
"Who did you bet?"
"At what price?"
"Where did you bet?"
"Did you bet the limit?"
"What was the limit?"
"Is your number still available?"
It takes time for gambling newcomers to realize most sports bettors are not good enough to beat the house edge.
The vast majority of sports bettors will hit somewhere between 48-52% in the long run.
At odds of 11/10, the break-even rate to remember is 52.38%.
The goal of the sophisticated sports bettor is to craft an opinion that aligns as closely as possible with the reality on the playing field, thus providing a realistic chance of winning 53-55% of his selections.
When your perception syncs up with reality, sports betting profits will inevitably follow.
Here's a six-pack of do's and don'ts from a dedicated gambler who loves the pursuit nearly as much as the conquest:
1) DO follow the action every day.
Miss a week of Major League Baseball games or a weekend of NBA or Stanley Cup playoff games and your opinions will suffer immediately.
It's like missing a week of trigonometry class.
You'll be playing catch-up for a month or more.
Or worse yet, you may be classified as a dropout.
2) DON'T make any distracted betting decisions.
Find a comfortable, stress-free setting to handicap the games before you ultimately place your wagers.
Allow nothing to interfere with your handicapping time.
And strive to never make a mistake when placing a wager.
The task is tough enough already.
Don't beat yourself.
3) DO track your results.
Easier said than done, I know.
I'm great at counting my winnings.
But once a losing streak arrives, the recordkeeping disappears.
A sports bettor needs to know when and where the engine is revving and when and where the oil is leaking.
4) DON'T regret any wagers.
Or else, why place wagers in the first place?
Bet with no regret.
Wager fearlessly and gamble unapologetically.
5) DO study the annual player drafts in all sports.
Player drafts signal the start of a new season and reveal the needs and wants of every franchise.
It's also where college sports meet the professional game and where sharp sports bettors get an inside look at a team's ability to manage its roster.
Organizational depth is critical in all sports, especially when the injury bug bites.
6) DON'T drink alcohol while gambling.
It's okay if your winnings buy a round of drinks.
But it's big trouble when the drinks start buying the bets.
MONDAY'S BEST BET.....Play the ATLANTA HAWKS +1.5 -110 (FIRST HALF ONLY) over the Philadelphia 76ers.
I like the spot for Atlanta but I don't trust the young Hawks for the full 48 minutes.
The duo of Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid are tough to stop when they're clicking at the same time.
Atlanta's last lead in Friday night's 127-111 loss to the Sixers was 11-10 with five minutes remaining in the first quarter.
The Hawks trailed most of the night and the deficit grew to double-digits for the last 21 minutes of the game.
Sloppy game management by the Hawks caused their 13-game winning streak at State Farm Arena to end in disappointing fashion.
Here's hoping Trae Young makes the necessary adjustments to Ben Simmons' defensive pressure and that long-range shooters Bogdan Bogdanovich, Danilo Gallinari and Kevin Huerter hit some open shots.
Credit Atlanta head coach Nate McMillan for reviving the young Hawks after the team started the season with a 14-20 record under the direction of Lloyd Pierce.
The Hawks finished the season with a 27-11 record after McMillan took over the team.
McMillan's reputation was built on the defensive end of the floor and the prediction here is that the Hawks will come out early and correct the mistakes of Game 3.
An overconfident Philadelphia squad certainly would help our cause.
My history of observing sporting events from a gambling perspective every day over the past 40 years is my greatest strength.
Not one year of experience repeated 40 times, but four full decades of adapting, altering and adjusting my opinions to an ever-changing sports landscape.
Every piece of information is processed through the eyes of a sports bettor.
Gambling intuition typically improves over time and one problem for beginning sports bettors is an inability to rely on instincts.
Why?
Because most beginners either have no instincts or their instincts are all wrong.
There are many differences between the recreational sports enthusiast and the hardcore sports bettor.
Sports fans are emotionally-connected to their favorite team while sports gamblers are financially-involved with all teams.
Furthermore, sports fans passionately follow the action on and off the field.
Sports bettors impartially follow the action on the field and closely chart the action in the betting marketplace.
A sharp sports bettor not only analyzes the strengths and weaknesses of players, coaches and teams, but also tracks the price evaluations of oddsmakers, bookmakers and fellow gamblers.
It's not enough to answer the question, "How good is Team A?"
Rather, the critical question is, "How good is Team A compared to the market's view of Team A?"
Flashback to 1985 for a quick story highlighting a similar distinction.
I first arrived in Las Vegas with my eyes wide open, looking to learn the tricks of the sports betting trade.
The first mistake in my sports betting education was to survey fellow gamblers with the age-old question, "Who do you like?"
For starters, that's not the right query.
A more precise question is, "Who did you bet?"
I quickly learned proper examinations go well beyond a single question.
With more experience came more perspective until the proper line of questioning went something like this:
"Who did you bet?"
"At what price?"
"Where did you bet?"
"Did you bet the limit?"
"What was the limit?"
"Is your number still available?"
It takes time for gambling newcomers to realize most sports bettors are not good enough to beat the house edge.
The vast majority of sports bettors will hit somewhere between 48-52% in the long run.
At odds of 11/10, the break-even rate to remember is 52.38%.
The goal of the sophisticated sports bettor is to craft an opinion that aligns as closely as possible with the reality on the playing field, thus providing a realistic chance of winning 53-55% of his selections.
When your perception syncs up with reality, sports betting profits will inevitably follow.
Here's a six-pack of do's and don'ts from a dedicated gambler who loves the pursuit nearly as much as the conquest:
1) DO follow the action every day.
Miss a week of Major League Baseball games or a weekend of NBA or Stanley Cup playoff games and your opinions will suffer immediately.
It's like missing a week of trigonometry class.
You'll be playing catch-up for a month or more.
Or worse yet, you may be classified as a dropout.
2) DON'T make any distracted betting decisions.
Find a comfortable, stress-free setting to handicap the games before you ultimately place your wagers.
Allow nothing to interfere with your handicapping time.
And strive to never make a mistake when placing a wager.
The task is tough enough already.
Don't beat yourself.
3) DO track your results.
Easier said than done, I know.
I'm great at counting my winnings.
But once a losing streak arrives, the recordkeeping disappears.
A sports bettor needs to know when and where the engine is revving and when and where the oil is leaking.
4) DON'T regret any wagers.
Or else, why place wagers in the first place?
Bet with no regret.
Wager fearlessly and gamble unapologetically.
5) DO study the annual player drafts in all sports.
Player drafts signal the start of a new season and reveal the needs and wants of every franchise.
It's also where college sports meet the professional game and where sharp sports bettors get an inside look at a team's ability to manage its roster.
Organizational depth is critical in all sports, especially when the injury bug bites.
6) DON'T drink alcohol while gambling.
It's okay if your winnings buy a round of drinks.
But it's big trouble when the drinks start buying the bets.
MONDAY'S BEST BET.....Play the ATLANTA HAWKS +1.5 -110 (FIRST HALF ONLY) over the Philadelphia 76ers.
I like the spot for Atlanta but I don't trust the young Hawks for the full 48 minutes.
The duo of Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid are tough to stop when they're clicking at the same time.
Atlanta's last lead in Friday night's 127-111 loss to the Sixers was 11-10 with five minutes remaining in the first quarter.
The Hawks trailed most of the night and the deficit grew to double-digits for the last 21 minutes of the game.
Sloppy game management by the Hawks caused their 13-game winning streak at State Farm Arena to end in disappointing fashion.
Here's hoping Trae Young makes the necessary adjustments to Ben Simmons' defensive pressure and that long-range shooters Bogdan Bogdanovich, Danilo Gallinari and Kevin Huerter hit some open shots.
Credit Atlanta head coach Nate McMillan for reviving the young Hawks after the team started the season with a 14-20 record under the direction of Lloyd Pierce.
The Hawks finished the season with a 27-11 record after McMillan took over the team.
McMillan's reputation was built on the defensive end of the floor and the prediction here is that the Hawks will come out early and correct the mistakes of Game 3.
An overconfident Philadelphia squad certainly would help our cause.
