My Monday blog

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Look alive!

The month of October provides the greatest opportunity for well-rounded sports bettors to beat the house.

Of course, there's a catch.

It's difficult to become a well-rounded sports bettor.

Remember the old Baltimore Ravens head coach Brian Billick when he went ballistic on the local sports media after a rare Sunday loss in 2001?

The rant went something like this:

You guys (Baltimore media members) know everything. On Sundays and Mondays, you're experts when it comes to NFL football. On Tuesdays, you know what's wrong with the NBA basketball team in town. Wednesdays? You can solve the hockey problems of the Capitals. And you're so versatile -- and just for good measure -- you provide hitting tips to Cal Ripken, Jr. on how to improve his swing.

Billick grilled the "DMV" media (D.C.-Maryland-Virginia) to the delight of many coaches and players who felt critical comments from press-box observers were inappropriate and out-of-bounds.

The media got the last laugh, as it so often does, when Billick was relieved of his head coaching duties, never to return to an NFL sideline, after a 5-11 season in 2007.

But Billick's diatribe still rings true today.

The outburst is especially instructive for sports bettors who spread themselves too thin in trying to follow multiple sports which operate simultaneously.

By trying to do it all, many sports bettors do nothing well.

Beware the confident sports betting muse who claims to know everything about every sport, especially if he's trying to sell you advice.

After all, the term "con man" originated in the middle of the 19th century as short for "confidence man."

And here's a sports handicapping truism: The more a handicapper knows about the NBA, the less he knows about the NHL, and vice versa.

It's hard to accurately track two professional sports that run concurrently in the winter and spring.

Besides, you either appreciate international hockey stars competing in a fast-action sport nicknamed "cold steel on ice" or you admire oversized African-American athletes with the ability to run, jump, shoot and dribble on a 50-by-94-foot playing surface of hard wood.

Here are three general tips for sports handicappers who attempt to gamble year-round:

1) Study the market.

There are some gamblers who find reading the market easier than reading the teams.

Some gamblers have won money betting Korean baseball or Chinese basketball without the ability to name a single Asian player.

My single favorite piece of market advice involves limp home favorites in the National Football League.

Beware the NFL home team which opens as a 2.5-point fave, never hits 3 and eventually drops to 2 or 1.5 or 1.

Why?

The house is initially willing to take a limit wager on the home team minus 2.5 points, but the money never appears.

Instead, money pours in on the short underdog, a telltale sign the visiting team is the superior squad.

Taking only 2.5 points in a sport where nearly 15% of the games land on "3" qualifies as a hard wager to make.

And hard wagers to make are often times the right wagers to make.

Bookmakers sometimes invite a wager on the short home favorite.

Don't take the bait.


2) Focus on coaching, no matter the sport.

Coaching involves putting players in the best position to succeed.

Search for games that are won on the pregame chalkboard before the players actually take the field.

We are looking for games that have already been played, if you will.

Sunday games that have been won the previous Wednesday or Thursday, due to superior scouting, game-planning and creative play-calling.

And always value players who act as a coach on the field/court.

There's nothing better than a heady quarterback (Tom Brady) or smart point guard (Sue Bird) who demands the best of every teammate while simultaneously improving the performance of each teammate.


3) Smart beats dumb.

Sports bettors wager on organized football games (NFL and NCAAF) and organized basketball games (NBA and NCAAB).

Yet the goal is to identify DISORGANIZED football teams and DISORGANIZED basketball teams.

Finding teams that play without discipline and betting against them is one way to beat the book.

Shrewd handicappers look to bet against high-turnover, heavily-penalized teams, especially when cast in the favorite's role.

After all, the most-accomplished quarterback in NFL history (the aforementioned TB12) claims 90% of all football games are lost, not won.


WEDNESDAY'S BEST BET....Play UNDER 7.5 runs (-105) in the Cardinals-Dodgers National League wild-card game.

It's Adam Wainwright (age 40) versus Max Scherzer (age 37) in what figures to be an old-school pitching duel.

Both managers will keep a close eye on their pitchers in this suicide game so as not to let one bad inning end the season for these two high-level squads.

Every pitcher on both playoff rosters will be available, if the time calls for it.

Just watched the highlights of Game 2 of the 2019 NLCS when these two veteran pitchers combined for 22 strikeouts (11 apiece) in a 3-1 win for Max's Nationals over Adam's Cards.

Wainwright was dealing with his devastating curveball and Scherzer was grunting and strutting with his unparalleled competitive fire.

First pitch is set for 5:10 p.m. PT.
 
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John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
nice call on PHX this am.


Every now and then.

Thanks Birdie.

Final score: Phoenix 87 Las Vegas 60.

They run it back Wednesday night.

Watching the replay of the game now.

Just finished watching the Connecticut-Chicago game.

High-level efforts from both teams.

Lean to Connecticut on Wednesday in Game 4.

The only negative to watching the Sun-Sky game was the broadcast team of Pam Ward and LaChina Robinson.

In a word, awful.

One plus: Holly Rowe was NOT the courtside reporter.


1633328737851.png

1633328771321.png
 

mrbowling300

EOG Dedicated
2) Focus on coaching, no matter the sport.

Coaching involves putting players in the best position to succeed.

Search for games that are won on the pregame chalkboard before the players actually take the field.

We are looking for games that have already been played, if you will.

Sunday games that have been won the previous Wednesday or Thursday, due to superior scouting, game-planning and creative play-calling.

And always value players who act as a coach on the field/court.

There's nothing better than a heady quarterback (Tom Brady) or smart point guard (Sue Bird) who demands the best of every teammate while simultaneously improving the performance of each teammate.


3) Smart beats dumb.

Sports bettors wager on organized football games (NFL and NCAAF) and organized basketball games (NBA and NCAAB).

Yet the goal is to identify DISORGANIZED football teams and DISORGANIZED basketball teams.

Finding teams that play without discipline and betting against them is one way to beat the book.

Shrewd handicappers look to bet against high-turnover, heavily-penalized teams, especially when cast in the favorite's role.

After all, the most-accomplished quarterback in NFL history (the aforementioned TB12) claims 90% of all football games are lost, not won.

Great blog JK....right now the Detroit Lions fit #2 and #3....Lions HC has made too many decision errors that have cost the Lions points in all 4 games. As a consequence, the Lions also fit #3, dumb. You look at Dan Campbell's speeches, and he is the poster boy of dumb. The end of the Baltimore game last week is good examples of this, as well as decisions throughout the game yesterday vs. Chicago. They were very ill prepared for this game, starting with the bizarre turnover in their first trip to the red zone. Later on, 4th and 1, they don't call time out, they don't go for the FG down 10, they rushed a pass play that failed miserably.
 
I agree with your blog JK if one wanted to become a pro. Fact is most of us are not going to do this professionally, at least if we stop kidding ourselves. I did it many moons ago and it was shitty life. Made some money and learned a lot, one of those things being I don't want to be a degenerate pro. All the documentaries you guys have seen are so true, even though the game has change so much that profile of Dink so reminded me of my pro days. Fucks with your mind like nothing you can imagine.

What I did learn that I use to this day is the market, mainly squares, will overreact to anything and everything. And the only way you can take advantage of that is to spread yourself a bit thin, but follow the major sports. Back in the day I specialized in Arena football and baseball. Arena football I was beating soundly, but limited action. If I hustled I'd get $500 down and some of that often was at slightly worse number. But I was spending so much time on it and someone I respect told me think of the hours versus your potential return. Even if you have a 10% ROI on it, its probably not a good hourly rate. He was right.

So now I just do my simple regression to the mean models based off easily attainable data and make a few bucks off of this. I don't worry myself with getting every penny out of it and I take some arbs when I find them, but you'll never see me just following steam or even starting the steam move. And that's a state I think most bettors would be smart to embrace. This can be a fun hobby and can put a few extra dollars in your pocket, or this can be a torturous lifestyle wasting away too much time for too little profit. Make the wise choice.
 

MrTop

EOG Master
not to mention the tax man that just made an appearance.. They are looking into possibly monitoring everyone's account a lot closer around $600 and above.


I am just gonna send them a check now . Makes it easier.
 
not to mention the tax man that just made an appearance.. They are looking into possibly monitoring everyone's account a lot closer around $600 and above.


I am just gonna send them a check now . Makes it easier.
What exactly are you sending them a check for? Are you making 400k a year doing this? Unless you are I don't see the tax man any more involved.
 

mrbowling300

EOG Dedicated
What exactly are you sending them a check for? Are you making 400k a year doing this? Unless you are I don't see the tax man any more involved.

He may be speaking about what my bank recently sent me:

Level One Client,

We want to make you aware of a new proposal that Congress is expected to vote on in the coming days. While we typically do not raise issues occurring in Washington with our clients, Congress is considering requiring financial institutions to report detailed information on client bank accounts to the IRS. This raises serious questions about your right to privacy.

The proposal, if enacted, would require banks to report to the IRS detailed information on the inflows and outflows of every client account above $600, including personal and business accounts. This sweeping expansion of tax information reporting is aimed at raising revenue to help offset the cost of additional spending programs in the American Families Plan.

If you oppose such a proposal, we encourage you to contact your lawmakers at this link provided by the American Bankers Association: aba.social/ContactCongress or click the button below.
 
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Hey may be speaking about what my bank recently sent me:

Level One Client,

We want to make you aware of a new proposal that Congress is expected to vote on in the coming days. While we typically do not raise issues occurring in Washington with our clients, Congress is considering requiring financial institutions to report detailed information on client bank accounts to the IRS. This raises serious questions about your right to privacy.

The proposal, if enacted, would require banks to report to the IRS detailed information on the inflows and outflows of every client account above $600, including personal and business accounts. This sweeping expansion of tax information reporting is aimed at raising revenue to help offset the cost of additional spending programs in the American Families Plan.

If you oppose such a proposal, we encourage you to contact your lawmakers at this link provided by the American Bankers Association: aba.social/ContactCongress or click the button below.

I have heard this is wish list bullshit that won't happen, but yeah that would suck. I thought it was dead, but who knows. I read a bit of the opposition to it and they point out stuff like would the authorities require you to elaborate more on your rent payment, family vacations you pay for with your debit card and a whole host of other nonsense.
 
irs getting crazy
If they only focused on what the Pandora Papers and Panama Papers exposed we'd all not have to care about this. What are they going to get out of sifting through all our gambling? Maybe someone didn't get W2Gs and made 2 grand getting lucky on sports. That might yield the IRS $400 and maybe some disallowed standard deductions. Is it even worth their trouble? Is that how you pay for trillions in spending?

The truly rich are laughing at these new proposed higher rates. They know they will cost them pennies, basically pay their lawyers and accounts for a few extra hours of money shifting this year so they can magically pay less in the future.
 

Heim

EOG Master
This articulates the Lions and HC Dan Campbell on item # 2 and 3 of JK's blog....Coaching and Dumb...this is from the top of the Valenti show in Detroit:

http://eog.mrbowling300.com/valenti100421.mp3

The team tries for him....not his fault they missed obvious delay of game before record breaking fg.

Swift has been hurt. That killed any break-away back. Secondary decimated with injuries, OL and
best linebacker (Okwara) out for the season. They're not the type of team that has depth.

And trust me Goff is late on every open receiver except Hankerson.

Campbell will be gone in 2 years but nothing will change, again.
 

kane

EOG master
The team tries for him....not his fault they missed obvious delay of game before record breaking fg.

Swift has been hurt. That killed any break-away back. Secondary decimated with injuries, OL and
best linebacker (Okwara) out for the season. They're not the type of team that has depth.

And trust me Goff is late on every open receiver except Hankerson.

Campbell will be gone in 2 years but nothing will change, again.
No, but was it his fault his defense only rushed 3 and dropped 8 when the Ravens had a fourth and 19 from their own 16? Of course the predictable happened, Jackson had all day to throw, and eventually found a receiver for a 36 yard gain, which set them up for the game winning FG. Campbell is a meathead, he was on the Dolphins staff about 10 years ago, the coach got fired and Campbell was named interim head coach, his very first practice with the team he had them doing Oklahoma drills, lol, that was his solution to the Dolphins problems. BTW, Oklahoma drills have since been banned by the league due to concerns over player safety. Like you said, he'll be gone after this year or next anyway, and you're right, nothing will ever change with that God forsaken franchise
 

mrbowling300

EOG Dedicated
No, but was it his fault his defense only rushed 3 and dropped 8 when the Ravens had a fourth and 19 from their own 16? Of course the predictable happened, Jackson had all day to throw, and eventually found a receiver for a 36 yard gain, which set them up for the game winning FG. Campbell is a meathead, he was on the Dolphins staff about 10 years ago, the coach got fired and Campbell was named interim head coach, his very first practice with the team he had them doing Oklahoma drills, lol, that was his solution to the Dolphins problems. BTW, Oklahoma drills have since been banned by the league due to concerns over player safety. Like you said, he'll be gone after this year or next anyway, and you're right, nothing will ever change with that God forsaken franchise
It was 4th and 19, Baltimore had no time outs, after 3 plays Lamar Jackson was lost. They had a play called, Campbell calls time out. Which let's Baltimore reset, get their breath back and draw up a new play, while the lions rush 3 and played prevent, they got burned and that set up the FG. Meanwhile the series before, they are driving, they get first down inside the 10 and they go conservative playing for a FG with a kicker signed whose lifetime best was a 29 yd FG in the NFL. Why not play for a TD? Fg's lose games. The team has a very bad roster, no doubt about that, but really question his basic fundamentals when it comes to his decision making.
 

kane

EOG master
In yesterday's game, they were down 10 with 4 mins left, it was 4th and 1 from the Bear's 8 yard line, and he goes for it instead of taking the FG, you're down 10, you need two scores, if you get the TD you still need a FG, but if you don't get it, you probably just lost since you're down two scores with 4 to play and you don't have the ball, of course they don't get it, they are the Lions after all, but the smart play was to kick it, make it a one score game with 4 mins left, give yourself a chance
 

mrbowling300

EOG Dedicated
In yesterday's game, they were down 10 with 4 mins left, it was 4th and 1 from the Bear's 8 yard line, and he goes for it instead of taking the FG, you're down 10, you need two scores, if you get the TD you still need a FG, but if you don't get it, you probably just lost since you're down two scores with 4 to play and you don't have the ball, of course they don't get it, they are the Lions after all, but the smart play was to kick it, make it a one score game with 4 mins left, give yourself a chance
Again, they have an ill prepared coach making decisions. This is exactly the stuff JK is talking about in points 2 and 3 in his blog.
 

railbird

EOG Master
Every now and then.

Thanks Birdie.

Final score: Phoenix 87 Las Vegas 60.

They run it back Wednesday night.

Watching the replay of the game now.

Just finished watching the Connecticut-Chicago game.

High-level efforts from both teams.

Lean to Connecticut on Wednesday in Game 4.

The only negative to watching the Sun-Sky game was the broadcast team of Pam Ward and LaChina Robinson.

In a word, awful.

One plus: Holly Rowe was NOT the courtside reporter.


View attachment 7464701

View attachment 7464702d
300 cases a yr in usa, very rare is desmoplastic melanoma. Holly Rowe and I are outliers.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
This articulates the Lions and HC Dan Campbell on item # 2 and 3 of JK's blog....Coaching and Dumb...this is from the top of the Valenti show in Detroit:

http://eog.mrbowling300.com/valenti100421.mp3


Listening now...

Two college football teams ranked in the Top 10, said Mike Valenti, and then there's the Lions (SIGH).

Valenti's one rule for head football coaches: RUN THE GAME RIGHT.

Some calls are 50/50 or 60/40, but some calls are non-negotiable.

Either you do it right or you do it wrong.

Valenti compared the Lions roster to a bucket of vomit.

He also compared Campbell's poor decision-making late in the fourth quarter to a Caldwell/Schwartz/Patricia moment.

My question: Why stop at Caldwell, Schwartz and Patricia?

The trio of Fontes, Morhinweg and Marinelli feels disrespected.
 
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John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
I agree with your blog JK if one wanted to become a pro. Fact is most of us are not going to do this professionally, at least if we stop kidding ourselves. I did it many moons ago and it was shitty life. Made some money and learned a lot, one of those things being I don't want to be a degenerate pro. All the documentaries you guys have seen are so true, even though the game has change so much that profile of Dink so reminded me of my pro days. Fucks with your mind like nothing you can imagine.

What I did learn that I use to this day is the market, mainly squares, will overreact to anything and everything. And the only way you can take advantage of that is to spread yourself a bit thin, but follow the major sports. Back in the day I specialized in Arena football and baseball. Arena football I was beating soundly, but limited action. If I hustled I'd get $500 down and some of that often was at slightly worse number. But I was spending so much time on it and someone I respect told me think of the hours versus your potential return. Even if you have a 10% ROI on it, its probably not a good hourly rate. He was right.

So now I just do my simple regression to the mean models based off easily attainable data and make a few bucks off of this. I don't worry myself with getting every penny out of it and I take some arbs when I find them, but you'll never see me just following steam or even starting the steam move. And that's a state I think most bettors would be smart to embrace. This can be a fun hobby and can put a few extra dollars in your pocket, or this can be a torturous lifestyle wasting away too much time for too little profit. Make the wise choice.


Sobering and depressing.

So much for "Livin' the Dream."
 

howid

EOG Dedicated
DET decided to punt to MIN from the MIN 42* on 4th & 4* with 9:47 remaining in the 4th while losing 6 to 13. With a Surrender Index of 74.54, this punt ranks at the 100th percentile of cowardly punts of the 2021 season, and the 99.6th percentile of all punts since 1999.


and yet the coach saw his team in a position to win with the clock ticking down...
 
and yet the coach saw his team in a position to win with the clock ticking down...

This kind of thinking is how the Lions remain in the cellar forever. Smart people realize when you aren't very good and you are trying to build something up you need to be process oriented. Make the right decisions every time, even if some don't work out. Only when you are nearing the top, when you have the processes down right and have made a lot of good decisions along the way can you be results oriented. The Giants have the same problem as the Lions right now, coaches and GMs who are telling you we are about winning damn football games today. Guys who make trades and draft picks that keep them competitive instead of recognizing there are better choices for the future.

The Chargers are showing what a difference a year can make when you get the coaches in who are process oriented. They probably will regress over the year as some decisions don't work out, but they are laying a very solid foundation that makes the QB and some players look really good, plus the coach is probably a shoe-in to win awards. But a lot of that is just a reflection of how horribly results oriented the past coach was.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
This kind of thinking is how the Lions remain in the cellar forever. Smart people realize when you aren't very good and you are trying to build something up you need to be process oriented. Make the right decisions every time, even if some don't work out. Only when you are nearing the top, when you have the processes down right and have made a lot of good decisions along the way can you be results oriented. The Giants have the same problem as the Lions right now, coaches and GMs who are telling you we are about winning damn football games today. Guys who make trades and draft picks that keep them competitive instead of recognizing there are better choices for the future.

The Chargers are showing what a difference a year can make when you get the coaches in who are process oriented. They probably will regress over the year as some decisions don't work out, but they are laying a very solid foundation that makes the QB and some players look really good, plus the coach is probably a shoe-in to win awards. But a lot of that is just a reflection of how horribly results oriented the past coach was.
Throw the Bears into that mix with Det and thr Giants. The Bears are just awful with their picks, trading them away.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Lombardi not long ago discussed at length about how the NYG, from the top down, are basically incompetent. What team do the mccaskeys turn to for guidance in football matters.......the NYG
They gave the G-Men a bunch of picks for Fields, makes sense.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
To highlight Iowa's conservative style of play under head football coach Kirk Ferentz, there are t-shirts seen on campus with the following battle cry: Punting is winning.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
iowa beat penn state and the refs on saturday, that is hard to do, especially the refs

Iowa's football culture is incredibly consistent.

Kirk Ferentz has been there as head coach since 1999.

But here's the key: Ferentz served as Iowa's offensive line coach from 1981-1989 under the late Hayden Fry.

Hard to believe Ferentz's first paycheck from the University of Iowa arrived 40 years ago.
 
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To highlight Iowa's conservative style of play under head football coach Kirk Ferentz, there are t-shirts seen on campus with the following battle cry: Punting is winning.

That is truly horrible, but yeah got to ride with whatever will get you to the winners circle.

Once again totally amazes me how these schools in the middle of nowhere can have better programs than a lot of lesser conference city schools. Cincinnati showing some promise finally, but places in the west like San Diego, Las Vegas, Salt Lake, Denver, etc. should all have much better college teams. I get it the Big 10 has traditional pull, but you would think kids these days given the choice of Iowa City or one of these cities with good lifestyle and NIL opportunities should be winning recruiting battles. The fact that all the MWC schools are pathetic sports programs is a testament to lousy administrations and bad coaches.
 
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