My Monday blog

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
The Houston Astros are World Series champions, fair and square.

Their 2017 World Series trophy was tarnished by allegations of cheating when the team used technology to steal signs from opposing squads.

No asterisk is necessary for this 2022 championship.

The Astros dominated the postseason with timely hitting and outstanding pitching to give 73-year-old manager Dusty Baker his first World Series title after 25 seasons as a manager.

Additionally, we now know why former Houston star shortstop Carlos Correa was expendable at the conclusion of the 2021 MLB season.

Rookie shortstop Jeremy Peña replaced Correa and became a star himself.

Peña's coming-out party took place on baseball's biggest stage where he was not only named American League Championship Series MVP but also World Series MVP after the Astros swept the New York Yankees in four and then defeated the Philadelphia Phillies in six.

Peña won postseason's highest individual award, and deservingly so.

However, Houston closer Ryan Pressly deserves notice after anchoring an impressive bullpen which got stronger as the postseason grew longer.

The Astros are 23-3 over the past three postseasons when Pressly appears in a game.

Gamblers who placed separate straight bets on the Astros and the under in Houston's 13 postseason games finished a combined 20-5-1.


COLLEGE FOOTBALL.....Ignore the polls, the betting markets tell the story.

This truism came to mind last Saturday afternoon when the top-ranked Tennessee Volunteers traveled to Athens to play third-ranked Georgia "between the hedges" at Sanford Stadium.

Tennessee entered the game atop this season's initial College Football Playoff rankings.

Final score: #3 Georgia 27 #1 Tennessee 13.

And the game wasn't that close.

Downgrade the thoughtless College Football Playoff rankings and upgrade the sharp sports betting markets where minutes before kickoff, the lower-ranked Bulldogs (wink, wink) were driven up from a nine-point favorite to a 10-point chalk.

Surely, top-ranked college football teams have played games in the role of an underdog, but as a double-digit underdog?

Fraudulent Tennessee, the highest-scoring team in the country, was held to a pair of harmless first-half field goals and a cosmetic touchdown late in the fourth quarter by the reigning national champs.

How quickly did legitimate Georgia take control of the game?

Tennessee recorded a field goal on its first possession and yet the Vols trailed 21-3 after only 16 minutes of game action.

The Bulldogs were 24-point favorites in live wagering early in the second quarter.

A comprehensive victory by Georgia, combined with second-ranked Ohio State's "wind-hindered" 21-7 victory over a one-win Northwestern squad, will vault Kirby Smart's team to its rightful place atop the CFP rankings tomorrow, where the Bulldogs are likely to sit until the final rankings from the College Football Playoff committee are released on the first Sunday in December.

Dedicated sports bettors know to disregard the CFP rankings for relevance until the national semifinalists are revealed on December 4.

The only meaningful purpose of the rankings is to seed the top four college football teams at the end of the regular season.

And even the seedings are suspect because the top-ranked team at season's end is only 2-4 straight-up in six national championship game appearances.


ELECTION DAY.....Ignore the polls, the betting markets tell the story.

The same lead sentence for our college football story applies to tomorrow's important Election Day.

If the betting markets are correct -- and I suspect they are -- the question is not if the Republicans will gain control of Congress, but rather by what margin will they sweep into power.

Will it be a Red Ripple or a Red Wave?

At one respected offshore sports book, the Republicans are 1/13 to gain control of the House and 1/3 to gain control of the Senate.

Some media types are framing the Georgia gubernatorial race between Brian Kemp and Stacey Abrams as competitive, but the betting markets tell a different story.

Kemp is 1/20 to win (risk $20 for every $1 you want to win).

In Nevada, Democrats Catherine Cortez Masto and Steve Sisolak are in trouble as both Adam Laxalt (-310) and Joe Lombardo (-450) are heavily-favored to win their Senate and gubernatorial races, respectively.

The Democrats were successful in running against Donald Trump and the extreme right in 2020 and now the Republicans are poised to win tomorrow by running against Joe Biden and the woke culture.


MONDAY'S BEST BET.....Play Chicago State +26 over Northwestern.

Not a bad spot for the visitor here as a 30-minute bus ride will put them in a visiting gym with only family and friends in attendance.

Northwestern played an exhibition game last Wednesday against Drury University.

The Wildcats managed only a 20-point win (69-49) against the Division II school.

Drury recorded 12 fast-break points against Northwestern's three.

Northwestern guards Boo Buie and Ty Berry combined to shoot a miserable 3-for-23 from the field.

NU lost a pair of big men from last year's team to ACC schools when Pete Nance (North Carolina) and Ryan Young (Duke) left for greener pastures.

The Wildcats don't possess the quality depth needed to win a game by 25-plus points.

Chicago State returns three key players -- Jahsean Corbett, Kedrick Green and Bryce Johnson -- from a team that pulled a major upset last February as a 17-point home underdog against conference power New Mexico State.

Let's start the college hoop season with a massive underdog staying inside the number the entire game.
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Master
"And even the seedings are suspect because the top-ranked team at season's end is only 2-4 straight-up in six national championship game appearances."

The 8 years of playoff seedings are a very small sample (24 games). Also in the semis, consider that the 1 seeds are 6-2 against the 4 seeds and the 2 vs 3 seeds are 4-4, pretty close to what you might expect. The champs are distributed 2-3-1-2 so results are skewed, but not enough to judge the seeding as overwhelmingly bad.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Thanks for your insight, Bob.

In last season's title game, the betting market got it right when third-ranked Georgia was a 2.5-point favorite over CFP's top-ranked Alabama.

Final score: Georgia 33 Alabama 18.
 
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railbird

EOG Master
Polls are dishonest, even fox polls are dishonest, nation #1 pollster rich baris refuses to ever go on Sean Hannity show because he is a war monger. Establishment and dishonest. Fox uses left wing s to get ratings for fox
 

railbird

EOG Master
Polls are dishonest, even fox polls are dishonest, nation #1 pollster rich baris refuses to ever go on Sean Hannity show because he is a war monger. Establishment and dishonest. Fox uses left wing s to get ratings for fox
Ratings on election night
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
CFP selection committee rewards achievement.

Betting market is focused solely on performance.
 

Heim

EOG Master
I didn't realize the dopey ex sheriff Lombardo was such a big favorite in the Governors race in Nevada. He was overwhelmed with the Mandalay shootings, he can run a state?

Sisolack is no prize, former commissioner, but he has some political savvy.
 
I didn't realize the dopey ex sheriff Lombardo was such a big favorite in the Governors race in Nevada. He was overwhelmed with the Mandalay shootings, he can run a state?

Sisolack is no prize, former commissioner, but he has some political savvy.
Sisolack will be booted for the mismanagement of DETR and the clusterfuckery around unemployment checks during COVID. He is also a blatant lackey for Newsome. He's done nothing for this state during his 4 years. Time for a change.
 

cheapseats

EOG Master
In my early days of sports wagering I got clocked betting the rankings. Lesson was learned the hard way. Straight out of pocket!
 
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