NBA: Utah Jazz - San Antonio Spurs

paul8209

EOG Senior Member
#1
NBA: Utah Jazz - San Antonio Spurs

Recommendation: OVER 183

Odds: 2.00

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket



Utah are a top defensive team beyond any doubt. They’ve put another great run lately in their quest to catch the last play-off train, holding teams to under 90 points in their last 10 games or so. The only small problem is San Antonio is one of the teams Jazz can’t really slow down, but this could be said about many other NBA teams anyway.

This is the 4th and final game in the season series. Spurs have won all 3 so far and a clean sweep is on the cards, regardless of the fact that Jazz are in greater need. Both games in San Antonio have gone comfortably over this line (198 and 221 points) and only the first meeting here was a defensive battle (96-78 for Sours). I’m inclined to believe exactly that game was a blip out of the trend though, as Jazz still weren’t able to contain Spurs. Tonight they just have to gamble and give everything they got for the win. Winning would mean scoring at least 95 points though, and this is the optimistic scenario!

Popovich hasn’t announced yet any players to be given a full rest tonight, but it’s not excluded he changes his mind. I expect Spurs’ Big 3 plus Kahwi to play limited minutes in all cases though, as the win here brings very small value for them as it’s a road game and doesn’t mess with their unbeaten home games record. I like San Antonio bench a lot, it’s a bit stating the obvious their bench is one of the two best in the league (along with GSW one of course). Second unit don’t play as tough defense as the starters really (completely in line with our target tonight) but still remain remarkably effective on the offensive end.

A home win wouldn’t be a total shock in these conditions, but the spread is on the low side (+3, + 4 points). I can easily see more scenarios ending with a road win, something in the range of 100-95 for SA

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