NCAAF - bet weekday games under - tracking thread

#1
Bet all NCAAF under on Monday through Thursday.
Quite a few games today. Get some. Start the season as a winner.
Past results do not guarantee future performance.

9/3/2015
S. Car -- N Car -- 63.5u
FL Intl -- UCF -- 44u
Ok State -- Cen Mich -- 58u
Mich -- Utah -- 45.5u
TCU -- Minn -- 57.5u
Duke --Tulane -- 50.5u
Ohio -- Idaho -- 58.5u
UTSA -- Arizona -- 60.5u
W. Ken -- Vandy -- 61.5u
 
#2
Re: NCAAF - bet weekday games under - tracking thread

Since 2010...

Monday games 11-23
Tues 27-29-3
Wed 21-26
Thur 92-103-2

With some line shopping and moves (which is easy of you know what youre going to do before hand) you can gain quite a few games actually. If you eliminate bowl games you also get rid of more losses than wins.
 
#3
Re: NCAAF - bet weekday games under - tracking thread

I overlooked Col 20 -- Hawaii 28 -- 60u which was a winner. I won't count it in W/L numbers.
I am retroactively changing "all games" to mean "all widely available games".

9/3/2015
S. Car 17 -- N Car 13-- 63.5u -- W
FL Intl 15 -- UCF 14 -- 44u -- W
Ok State 24-- Cen Mich 13-- 58u -- W
Mich 17-- Utah 24-- 45.5u -- W
TCU 23 -- Minn 17 -- 57.5u -- W
Duke 37--Tulane 7-- 50.5u -- W

Ohio 45 -- Idaho 28 -- 58.5u -- L
UTSA 32 -- Arizona 42 -- 60.5u -- L

W. Ken 14 -- Vandy 12-- 61.5u -- W

YTD 7W - 2L - 0P

I'm not sure if I believe in this sort of thing. This win rate will almost certainly decrease. Probably will get reversion to the mean from now on, but I will continue posting them.
 
#4
Re: NCAAF - bet weekday games under - tracking thread

A betting angle needs a good story to explain why it works as opposed to a random data mined subset with no explanation. The story here is that these are low interest games. Coaches, players, students, and TV networks are not much interested. These games are usually not big name teams. Lack of interest means nobody tries real hard and scores are low.
Wanti suggested passing on bowl games and today is a holiday game. Both cases don't fit the story here and maybe should be passed. I'll check bowl games someday. I'll go ahead with this one.

YTD 7-2-0
9/7/2015
Ohio St -- Vir. Tech. -- 53u
 
#5
Re: NCAAF - bet weekday games under - tracking thread

#1 ranked OSU on TV on a holiday is not really a no interest game. However #2 TCU worked OK last week. I need to do some historical research on this.

9/7/2015

Ohio St 42-- Vir. Tech. 24-- 53u -- L

Today 0 -1
YTD 7W - 3L - 0P
 
#6
Re: NCAAF - bet weekday games under - tracking thread

This would qualify as a low interest game. The line has moved from 67 to 61.5.

9/10/15
YTD 7W - 3L - 0P

La. Tech. -- W. Kentucky -- 61.5u
 
#7
Re: NCAAF - bet weekday games under - tracking thread

9/10/15
YTD 7W - 3L - 0P

La. Tech. 38-- W. Kentucky 41-- 61.5u -- L

Today 0-1
YTD 7W - 4L - 0P
 
#8
Re: NCAAF - bet weekday games under - tracking thread

Total moved from 54 to 52. Point spread moved from pick to Clemson(-6). Clemson ranked #11. It appears there is some interest in this game.

9/17/15
YTD 7W - 4L - 0P

Clemson -- Louisville -- 52u
 
#10
Re: NCAAF - bet weekday games under - tracking thread

This would qualify as a low interest game. Total moved from 67 to 68 so that doesn't mean much. Cincinnati quarterback is out. Line moved from Cinc +4.5 to Cinc +9. It was Cinc +10 for a while. I guess that it's possible the QB is worth 4.5 points.

9/24/15
YTD 8W - 4L - 0P

Cinc -- Memphis -- 68u
 
#11
Re: NCAAF - bet weekday games under - tracking thread

99 points is an over.

9/24/15
YTD 8W - 4L - 0P

Cincinnati -46- Memphis -53- 68u -- L

YTD 8W - 5L - 0P
 
#13
Re: NCAAF - bet weekday games under - tracking thread

Line moved from 65 to 70.

10/1/15
YTD 8W - 5L - 0P

Miami-Fl -23- Cincinnati -34- 69u - W

YTD 9W - 5L -0P
 
#14
Re: NCAAF - bet weekday games under - tracking thread

SMU moved 74 to 72. Wash moved 56 to 58. Nothing interesting here.

10/8/15

YTD 9W - 5L -0P

SMU -- Houston -- u72
Wash -- USC -- u58
 
#15
Re: NCAAF - bet weekday games under - tracking thread

10/8/15

YTD 9W - 5L -0P

SMU -28- Houston -49- u72 - L
Wash -17- USC -12- u58 - W

YTD 10W - 6L - 0P
 
#18
Re: NCAAF - bet weekday games under - tracking thread

10/15/15

YTD 10W - 7L -0P

Auburn -- Kentucky -- 56u
W Ken -- N Texas -- 70.5u
UCLA -- Stanford -- 55.5u
 
#19
Re: NCAAF - bet weekday games under - tracking thread

10/15/15

YTD 10W - 7L -0P

Auburn -30- Kentucky -27- 56u - L
W Ken -55- N Texas -28- 70.5u - L
UCLA -35- Stanford -56- 55.5u - L


YTD 10W - 10L - 0P
 
#20
Re: NCAAF - bet weekday games under - tracking thread

Opened at 62 and now at 57.5. We are fearless and will make what looks like a very bad bet.
Now that MLB is gone during the week there will be enough bets during the rest of the season to decide if this is any good.
10/20/15

YTD 10W - 10L - 0P

La Laf -- Ark St -- u57.5
 
#22
Re: NCAAF - bet weekday games under - tracking thread

10/22/15

YTD 10W - 11L - 0P

Ga South -- Appl St. -- u61
Temple -- E. Car. -- u48
Cal -- UCLA -- u69.5
 
#23
Re: NCAAF - bet weekday games under - tracking thread

10/22/15

YTD 10W - 11L - 0P

Ga South -13- Appl St. -31- u61 - W
Temple -24- E. Car. -14- u48 - W
Cal -24- UCLA -40- u69.5 - W

YTD 13W - 11L - 0P
 
#24
Re: NCAAF - bet weekday games under - tracking thread

10/29/15

YTD 13W - 11L - 0P

N Car -- Pitt -- u56.5
W Mich -- E Mich -- u64.5
Buff -- Miami -- u49.5
Tex St -- Ga South -- u68.5
WVU -- TCU -- u75.5
Ore -- Az St -- u66.5
 
#25
Re: NCAAF - bet weekday games under - tracking thread

10/29/15

YTD 13W - 11L - 0P

N Car -26- Pitt -19- u56.5 - W
W Mich -58- E Mich -28- u64.5 - L
Buff -29- Miami -24- u49.5 - L

Tex St -13- Ga South -37- u68.5 - W
WVU -10- TCU -40- u75.5 - W

Ore -61- Az St -55- u66.5 - L

YTD 16W - 14L - 0P
 
#30
Re: NCAAF - bet weekday games under - tracking thread

11/5/15

YTD 17W - 15L - 0P

Baylor -- Kan St -- u67
Buff -- Kent St -- u45
Ark St -- App St -- u61
Ball St -- W Mich -- u62
Miss St -- Missouri -- u43
Nev -- Fresno St -- u55
 
#31
Re: NCAAF - bet weekday games under - tracking thread

11/5/15

YTD 17W - 15L - 0P

Baylor -31- Kan St -24- u67 - W
Buff -18- Kent St -17- u45 - W

Ark St -40- App St -27- u61 - L
Ball St -7- W Mich -54- u62 - W
Miss St -31- Missouri -13- u43 - L
Nev -30- Fresno St -16- u55 - W

YTD 21W - 17L - 0P
 
#33
Re: NCAAF - bet weekday games under - tracking thread

11/10/15

YTD 21W - 17L - 0P

Toledo -28- Cen Mich -23- u54.5 - W
Ken St -0- Ohio -27- u44 - W

YTD 23W - 18L - 0P
 
#35
Re: NCAAF - bet weekday games under - tracking thread

11/11/15

YTD 23W - 18L - 0P

Bowl Gr -41- W Mich -27- u73 - W
N Ill -41- Buffalo -30- u55 - L

YTD 24W - 19L - 0P
 
#37
Re: NCAAF - bet weekday games under - tracking thread

11/12/15

YTD 24W - 19L - 0P

Vir Tech -23- Geo Tech -21- u53.5 - W
La Lafay -25- S Ala -32- u61 - W


YTD 26W - 19L - 0P
 
#39
Re: NCAAF - bet weekday games under - tracking thread

11/17/15

YTD 26W - 19L - 0P

Toledo -44- Bowl Gr -28- u70 - L
Ball St -31- Ohio -48- u53 - L


YTD 26W - 21L - 0P
 
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